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Time to Bet on the Cloud?
                                    Alexis Richardson
                               CEO Rabbit ...
RabbitMQThank you!




                        Im in yr serverz,
                        queueing yr messagez
            ...
CohesiveFTHybrid solutions allow for cautious migration
                                            20 Cloud
             ...
Scale is not my problem




Thursday, 9 July 2009
Scale is not my problem




                        Animoto: 50 EC2 slices to 3,500 over 3 days
Thursday, 9 July 2009
What CIOs say                                           The future is “cloudy”


                        58% of CIOs say c...
http://www.flickr.com/photos/psd
Thursday, 9 July 2009
Joyent       Mosso           Google
                                                    AppEngine
                        ...
PUBLIC Cloud




                         confidential   7

Thursday, 9 July 2009
Magic?
               Cloud computing is IT as a service




                                     Source: The 451 Group

T...
Magic?
               Cloud computing is IT as a service




                                Security
                    ...
Data (re)liability




Thursday, 9 July 2009
Key points                                     The future is “cloudy”


                        Amazon starts at 10 cents ...
Cloud

                        ... is a business model


Thursday, 9 July 2009
Cloud

                        ... is a business model


Thursday, 9 July 2009
Fundamental Theorem of
                        Cloud: If you can reliably beat
                        cloud providers on ...
Fundamental Theorem of
                        Cloud: If you can reliably beat
                        cloud providers on ...
Thursday, 9 July 2009
Cheap is good  Market conditions place additional emphasis on cost-savings



                        In uncertain
       ...
Other people’s money
                        Software
                        computers are a
                        heck...
Elasticity =
                        Freedom



Thursday, 9 July 2009
Thursday, 9 July 2009
Bet on: CHOICE



Thursday, 9 July 2009
Thursday, 9 July 2009
Thursday, 9 July 2009
How big can this be?
                        2008: first real “year of cloud”

                        MS Azure, VMware, Go...
Thursday, 9 July 2009
Use Case: Ocean Observatories “Global Twitter for Data”




                                                              ...
Use Case: Ocean Observatories “Global Twitter for Data”

                                                  Service.DomainN...
Use Case: Ocean Observatories “Global Twitter for Data”

                                                  Service.DomainN...
Use Case: Ocean Observatories “Global Twitter for Data”

                                                  Service.DomainN...
It’s complicated



Thursday, 9 July 2009
The ‘fool proof’ enterprise                       The future is “cloudy”


                        Disruption is bad
     ...
Business expects




Thursday, 9 July 2009
Reasonable concerns                                              The future is “cloudy”


                                ...
Clouds don’t care
Thursday, 9 July 2009
Amazon’s CTO on Economic Drivers

                        • Increasing Uncertainty
                        • Growing Abund...
Amazon Use Cases

                        Media Distribution

                        Scalable Web Sites

                ...
Thursday, 9 July 2009
Thursday, 9 July 2009
Thursday, 9 July 2009
Thursday, 9 July 2009
Thursday, 9 July 2009
Founded Jan 2008
                                    20+ Million Users
                            4 of top 10 games on Fa...
Founded Jan 2008
                                           20+ Million Users
                                   4 of top ...
Founded Jan 2008
                                           20+ Million Users
                                   4 of top ...
Thursday, 9 July 2009
Thursday, 9 July 2009
Produce
                         Encode
                        Distribute
                         Archive




Thursday, ...
Video Citizen Journalism

Thursday, 9 July 2009
4 Weeks!
                        Video Citizen Journalism

Thursday, 9 July 2009
It’s BUSINESS time                            The future is “cloudy”


                        MANY Clouds - not just Amaz...
Would you bet on the cloud

                        Would you bet on your own infrastructure to scale


                  ...
Manage expectations




                         45

Thursday, 9 July 2009
Experiment

                        ... is a business model


Thursday, 9 July 2009
Offload some systems
                        Some companies begin with the “coffee ordering” system




Thursday, 9 July 20...
Make money

                        ... is a business model


Thursday, 9 July 2009
Play the peak game                      Scale confidently



                        Leverage the cloud for peak
          ...
Play the peak game                      Scale confidently



                        Leverage the cloud for peak
          ...
Control

                        ... is a business model


Thursday, 9 July 2009
Check your assumptions
                                 Analysts cite security and control top cloud-computing concern


 ...
Confidence

                        ... is a business model


Thursday, 9 July 2009
Use guerilla tactics
                        Hybrid solutions allow for cautious migration




Thursday, 9 July 2009
Would you bet on the cloud

                        What about data
                        What about latency
           ...
Time to make a stand?




Thursday, 9 July 2009
All of this has happened before
              and it will all happen again




                        http://en.wikipedia...
Attack of the clones?
                        CLOUD-OS
                        LOCK IN




                           57
 ...
Defend your data




Thursday, 9 July 2009
Open Services?

                        ... is a business model


                                Open Messaging
Thursday,...
Open Cloud = Your Cloud




Thursday, 9 July 2009
Would you bet on this?
           Number of EC2 Instances




                                         Steady state of ~40...
Would you bet on this?
           Number of EC2 Instances




                                         Launch of Facebook ...
Would you bet on this?
                                                                                     Amazon EC2 eas...
Would you bet on this?
           Number of EC2 Instances




                                                 8          ...
Thursday, 9 July 2009
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Time to Bet on the Cloud?

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From the Gaming Scalability event, June 2009 in London (http://gamingscalability.org).

What's the state of play with Cloud Services in 2009? Which businesses are on the cloud and why? When should you look at cloud services and what's the payoff?

Alexis Richardson is CEO and co-founder of Rabbit Technologies Ltd., the commercial support company behind RabbitMQ, a leading implementation of the AMQP open business messaging standard. Alexis is also co-chair of OCCI, the new initiative from OGF to develop an Open Cloud Computing Interface. Alexis Richardson is also a co-founder of CohesiveFT. Recently CohesiveFT spun off its investment in Rabbit Technologies Limited which is now operating as a separate company. Previously Alexis was CEO and co-founder of MetaLogic, a middleware company specializing in high throughput caching and transaction management products. As a past consultant for Fortune 1000 corporations, he has worked on various high performance front-office trading solutions. Before that he worked in proprietary trading of fixed-income derivatives at Goldman Sachs, after researching and teaching mathematical logic and computer science at Oxford University.

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Transcript of "Time to Bet on the Cloud?"

  1. 1. Time to Bet on the Cloud? Alexis Richardson CEO Rabbit Technologies Ltd July 9 2009 alexis@rabbitmq.com 1 Thursday, 9 July 2009
  2. 2. RabbitMQThank you! Im in yr serverz, queueing yr messagez Photo credit: http://flickr.com/photos/53366513@N00/67046506/ Thursday, 9 July 2009
  3. 3. CohesiveFTHybrid solutions allow for cautious migration 20 Cloud Computing Startups You Should Know Thursday, 9 July 2009
  4. 4. Scale is not my problem Thursday, 9 July 2009
  5. 5. Scale is not my problem Animoto: 50 EC2 slices to 3,500 over 3 days Thursday, 9 July 2009
  6. 6. What CIOs say The future is “cloudy” 58% of CIOs say cloud computing will cause a radical shift in IT 47% say they're already using it or actively researching it. Source: CIO Research cited in “Cloud computing: IT execs see both promise & security issues, By LAURIANNE MCLAUGHLIN, IDG October 22, 2008 Thursday, 9 July 2009
  7. 7. http://www.flickr.com/photos/psd Thursday, 9 July 2009
  8. 8. Joyent Mosso Google AppEngine FlexiScale Slice Host Engine Amazon Yard EC2 http://www.flickr.com/photos/psd Thursday, 9 July 2009
  9. 9. PUBLIC Cloud confidential 7 Thursday, 9 July 2009
  10. 10. Magic? Cloud computing is IT as a service Source: The 451 Group Thursday, 9 July 2009
  11. 11. Magic? Cloud computing is IT as a service Security Scalability Availability Performance Cost-effectiveness Source: The 451 Group Thursday, 9 July 2009
  12. 12. Data (re)liability Thursday, 9 July 2009
  13. 13. Key points The future is “cloudy” Amazon starts at 10 cents / CPU-hour - or as little as 3 cents if you block book EngineYard “Solo” - Rails on EC2 - starts at 18 JPMorgan pay 50 according to 451 Group Merrill Lynch pay less.. IBM - I’ve heard range of 13-25 cents But it’s about choice - not just price. Thursday, 9 July 2009
  14. 14. Cloud ... is a business model Thursday, 9 July 2009
  15. 15. Cloud ... is a business model Thursday, 9 July 2009
  16. 16. Fundamental Theorem of Cloud: If you can reliably beat cloud providers on price, availability, and scalability... Then you are a cloud provider. Thursday, 9 July 2009
  17. 17. Fundamental Theorem of Cloud: If you can reliably beat cloud providers on price, availability, and scalability... Then you are a cloud provider. Thursday, 9 July 2009
  18. 18. Thursday, 9 July 2009
  19. 19. Cheap is good Market conditions place additional emphasis on cost-savings In uncertain economic times, companies look for immediate cost-cutting measures. Cloud computing can reduce IT costs without negatively affecting ongoing operations. Capital expenditure via “hardware refresh” vs. operating expense. Thursday, 9 July 2009
  20. 20. Other people’s money Software computers are a heck of a lot cheaper to assemble, deploy, manage than metal Someone else spending their capital is way better than me spending my capital I’ll spend my money on an IT staff that helps me leverage these two axioms Thursday, 9 July 2009
  21. 21. Elasticity = Freedom Thursday, 9 July 2009
  22. 22. Thursday, 9 July 2009
  23. 23. Bet on: CHOICE Thursday, 9 July 2009
  24. 24. Thursday, 9 July 2009
  25. 25. Thursday, 9 July 2009
  26. 26. How big can this be? 2008: first real “year of cloud” MS Azure, VMware, GoGrid, Mosso, and and and .... (But ISPs still don’t “get it”) More cloud services than users? Much much more to come... confidential 24 Thursday, 9 July 2009
  27. 27. Thursday, 9 July 2009
  28. 28. Use Case: Ocean Observatories “Global Twitter for Data” DMAC Thursday, 9 July 2009
  29. 29. Use Case: Ocean Observatories “Global Twitter for Data” Service.DomainName Region Virtual IP Cloud IPs DMAC Thursday, 9 July 2009
  30. 30. Use Case: Ocean Observatories “Global Twitter for Data” Service.DomainName Region Virtual IP Cloud IPs DMAC Thursday, 9 July 2009
  31. 31. Use Case: Ocean Observatories “Global Twitter for Data” Service.DomainName Region Virtual IP Cloud IPs DMAC Thursday, 9 July 2009
  32. 32. It’s complicated Thursday, 9 July 2009
  33. 33. The ‘fool proof’ enterprise The future is “cloudy” Disruption is bad It must be failure proof Plans are not subject to change You can take opportunity without risk Business is a source of revenue, IT is a source of risk And IT must justify itself with predictions Sales people are there to help you (eat) Machine huggers... Thursday, 9 July 2009
  34. 34. Business expects Thursday, 9 July 2009
  35. 35. Reasonable concerns The future is “cloudy” Will my apps, tools, and people still work in the Will I get fired for this? exact same way? Is it cheap to change? Can I control my infra? Is it stable? Migrating sunk resources is hard. Can I Does the cloud provider move my whole data have business model that I center to the cloud? can rely on? What is their cost of capital? Thursday, 9 July 2009
  36. 36. Clouds don’t care Thursday, 9 July 2009
  37. 37. Amazon’s CTO on Economic Drivers • Increasing Uncertainty • Growing Abundance • Intensifying Competition • Growing Power of Customers • Limited access to capital From Push to Pull – Emerging Model for Mobilizing Resources – John Hagel & John Seely Brown - 2005 Thursday, 9 July 2009
  38. 38. Amazon Use Cases Media Distribution Scalable Web Sites Backup and Recovery Financial Applications Large-scale Simulation Elastic Computing Thursday, 9 July 2009
  39. 39. Thursday, 9 July 2009
  40. 40. Thursday, 9 July 2009
  41. 41. Thursday, 9 July 2009
  42. 42. Thursday, 9 July 2009
  43. 43. Thursday, 9 July 2009
  44. 44. Founded Jan 2008 20+ Million Users 4 of top 10 games on Facebook 20 billion customer minutes per month (55% of YouTube) 100% AWS Thursday, 9 July 2009
  45. 45. Founded Jan 2008 20+ Million Users 4 of top 10 games on Facebook 20 billion customer minutes per month (55% of YouTube) 100% AWS S3 (games 1-2MB ea) Thursday, 9 July 2009
  46. 46. Founded Jan 2008 20+ Million Users 4 of top 10 games on Facebook 20 billion customer minutes per month (55% of YouTube) 100% AWS EC2 Load Balancing M1.S M1.S M1.S M1.S Mid-Tier M1.L M1.L S3 (games 1-2MB ea) Database M1.XL EBS EBS EBS EBS Thursday, 9 July 2009
  47. 47. Thursday, 9 July 2009
  48. 48. Thursday, 9 July 2009
  49. 49. Produce Encode Distribute Archive Thursday, 9 July 2009
  50. 50. Video Citizen Journalism Thursday, 9 July 2009
  51. 51. 4 Weeks! Video Citizen Journalism Thursday, 9 July 2009
  52. 52. It’s BUSINESS time The future is “cloudy” MANY Clouds - not just Amazon any more They are a commercial SERVICE In production - NO WAIT needed SIMPLE resource allocation that can be audited STOP paying if you don’t like your IT provider Extend your infra in a CONTROLLED way You are not alone Thursday, 9 July 2009
  53. 53. Would you bet on the cloud Would you bet on your own infrastructure to scale Can you save money - or defer expenditure to when it is needed Will you get fired Thursday, 9 July 2009
  54. 54. Manage expectations 45 Thursday, 9 July 2009
  55. 55. Experiment ... is a business model Thursday, 9 July 2009
  56. 56. Offload some systems Some companies begin with the “coffee ordering” system Thursday, 9 July 2009
  57. 57. Make money ... is a business model Thursday, 9 July 2009
  58. 58. Play the peak game Scale confidently Leverage the cloud for peak demand or seasonal spikes. Thursday, 9 July 2009
  59. 59. Play the peak game Scale confidently Leverage the cloud for peak demand or seasonal spikes. Thursday, 9 July 2009
  60. 60. Control ... is a business model Thursday, 9 July 2009
  61. 61. Check your assumptions Analysts cite security and control top cloud-computing concern “Cloud computing has unique attributes that require risk assessment in areas such as data integrity, recovery, and privacy, and an evaluation of legal issues in areas such as e-discovery, regulatory compliance, and auditing,” 1 Customers currently lack control of security in the cloud. 1. Source: Assessing the Risks of Cloud Computing, Gartner, June 2008. 2. Source: IDC Enterprise Panel, August 2008. 3. InformationWeek Analytics Cloud Computing Survey, September, 2008 Thursday, 9 July 2009
  62. 62. Confidence ... is a business model Thursday, 9 July 2009
  63. 63. Use guerilla tactics Hybrid solutions allow for cautious migration Thursday, 9 July 2009
  64. 64. Would you bet on the cloud What about data What about latency What about regulations Thursday, 9 July 2009
  65. 65. Time to make a stand? Thursday, 9 July 2009
  66. 66. All of this has happened before and it will all happen again http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eternal_return Thursday, 9 July 2009
  67. 67. Attack of the clones? CLOUD-OS LOCK IN 57 (CC) Giara @flickr.com Thursday, 9 July 2009
  68. 68. Defend your data Thursday, 9 July 2009
  69. 69. Open Services? ... is a business model Open Messaging Thursday, 9 July 2009
  70. 70. Open Cloud = Your Cloud Thursday, 9 July 2009
  71. 71. Would you bet on this? Number of EC2 Instances Steady state of ~40 instances 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 2 00 2 00 2 00 2 00 2 00 2 00 2 00 2 00 2 00 2/ 3/ 4/ 5/ 6/ 7/ 8/ 9/ 0/ 4/1 4/1 4/1 4/1 4/1 4/1 4/1 4/1 4/2 Thursday, 9 July 2009
  72. 72. Would you bet on this? Number of EC2 Instances Launch of Facebook application Steady state of ~40 instances 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 2 00 2 00 2 00 2 00 2 00 2 00 2 00 2 00 2 00 2/ 3/ 4/ 5/ 6/ 7/ 8/ 9/ 0/ 4/1 4/1 4/1 4/1 4/1 4/1 4/1 4/1 4/2 Thursday, 9 July 2009
  73. 73. Would you bet on this? Amazon EC2 easily scaled up and down to handle additional traffic Peak of 3500 instances Number of EC2 Instances Launch of Facebook application Steady state of ~40 instances 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 2 00 2 00 2 00 2 00 2 00 2 00 2 00 2 00 2 00 2/ 3/ 4/ 5/ 6/ 7/ 8/ 9/ 0/ 4/1 4/1 4/1 4/1 4/1 4/1 4/1 4/1 4/2 Thursday, 9 July 2009
  74. 74. Would you bet on this? Number of EC2 Instances 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 2 00 2 00 2 00 2 00 2 00 2 00 2 00 2 00 2 00 2/ 3/ 4/ 5/ 6/ 7/ 8/ 9/ 0/ 4/1 4/1 4/1 4/1 4/1 4/1 4/1 4/1 4/2 Thursday, 9 July 2009
  75. 75. Thursday, 9 July 2009
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