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Is the cloud a gamble
Is the cloud a gamble
Is the cloud a gamble
Is the cloud a gamble
Is the cloud a gamble
Is the cloud a gamble
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Is the cloud a gamble

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Simon Wardley examines of the benefits & risks of cloud computing and how this industry is shaping up.

Simon Wardley examines of the benefits & risks of cloud computing and how this industry is shaping up.

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  • 1. Is Cloud Computing a gamble?
  • 2. Simon Wardley
  • 3. DANGER! Will Robinson DANGER!
  • 4. Sccott Beale/Laughing Squid : http://www.flickr.com/photos/laughingsquid/
  • 5. Pain
  • 6. Pain No. Slides
  • 7. Pain 25 slides Severe risk of harm OK No. Slides
  • 8. Pain 306 slides Severe risk of harm OK No. Slides
  • 9. http://flickr.com/photos/jonnygoldstein/
  • 10. Cloud Computing
  • 11. What is Cloud Computing?
  • 12. http://www.flickr.com/photos/fimbrethil/
  • 13. It’s like computers on the internet, innit.
  • 14. http://www.flickr.com/photos/radioflyer007/
  • 15. http://www.flickr.com/photos/radioflyer007/ http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/5/51/Metropolis.jpg
  • 16. Disruptive shift of the computing stack to online services.
  • 17. It’s like computers on the internet, innit.
  • 18. http://www.flickr.com/photos/radioflyer007/
  • 19. Image from Oliver Twist,
  • 20. It’s like SaaS or software as a service, and infrastructure provision and PaaS, that’s platform as a Service and utility computing being provided in public clouds, which is different from private clouds which aren’t cloud computing, unless of course you’re talking about hybrid clouds which sort of are and it’s hype and lock-in and did I mention infrastructure?
  • 21. 67 definitions
  • 22. photos/videoplacebo/3481780379/
  • 23. Pain 306 slides Severe risk of harm OK No. Slides
  • 24. 1. On-demand self-service Internet infrastructure where you pay-as-you-go and use only what you need, all managed by a browser, application or API. Cloud computing is broken up into multiple segments including: Cloud Infrastructure, Cloud Platforms and Cloud Applications. (see "Cloud Pyramid")
  • 25. 1. On-demand self-service Internet infrastructure where you pay-as-you-go and use only what you need, all managed by a browser, application or API. Cloud computing is broken up into multiple segments including: Cloud Infrastructure, Cloud Platforms and Cloud Applications. Cloud Pyramid (see "Cloud Pyramid")
  • 26. + 8 definitions
  • 27. 2. A new generation of computing that utilizes distant servers for data storage and management, allowing the device to use smaller and more efficient chips that consume less energy than standard computers.
  • 28. 2. A new generation of computing that utilizes distant servers for data storage and management, allowing the device to use smaller and more efficient chips that consume less energy than standard computers.
  • 29. 2. A new generation of computing that utilizes distant servers for data storage and management, allowing the device to use smaller and more efficient chips that consume less energy than standard computers.
  • 30. 3. the ability to draw IT resources from a third party source.
  • 31. No definition
  • 32. http://www.flickr.com/photos/radioflyer007/
  • 33. Our Cloud = Product
  • 34. What is Industrial Revolution?
  • 35. http://www.flickr.com/photos/fimbrethil/
  • 36. It’s like mechanised horses, innit.
  • 37. 43 definitions
  • 38. 1. Broad socioeconomic and technological changes starting in the early 18th century.
  • 39. 2. Rapid development of industry in the early 19th century.
  • 40. No definition
  • 41. Not a thing
  • 42. Transition
  • 43. Industrial Revolution is a period in the18th and 19th centuries when major changes in agriculture, manufacturing, mining, and transportation had a profound effect on socioeconomic and culture conditions
  • 44. It’s like mechanised horses, innit.
  • 45. It’s like computers on the internet, innit.
  • 46. “Cloud computing” is a consequence of economic and technological conditions that have combined to cause a disruptive change in I.T. from a product towards a service based economy.
  • 47. Why I.T. is changing.
  • 48. Why I.T. is changing. Benefits & Risks.
  • 49. Why I.T. is changing. Benefits & Risks. Canonical and the Cloud.
  • 50. Is Cloud Computing a gamble?
  • 51. Why I.T. is changing.
  • 52. Why I.T. is changing http://www.strassmann.com/ Paul Strassmann
  • 53. Why I.T. is changing Not all IT is the same.
  • 54. Why I.T. is changing Not all IT has value.
  • 55. Why I.T. is changing imperfect to perfect competition
  • 56. Why I.T. is changing Yesterday’s hot stuff
  • 57. Why I.T. is changing Yesterday’s Today’s hot stuff boredom
  • 58. http://www.flickr.com/photos/privatenobby
  • 59. http://www.flickr.com/photos/billege
  • 60. http://www.flickr.com/photos/billege/
  • 61. Why I.T. is changing Innovation
  • 62. Why I.T. is changing Innovation Bespoke
  • 63. Why I.T. is changing Innovation Bespoke Products
  • 64. Why I.T. is changing Innovation Bespoke Products Services
  • 65. Why I.T. is changing Commoditisation Innovation Bespoke Products Services
  • 66. Why I.T. is changing Commoditisation Innovation Bespoke Products Services Competitive Advantage
  • 67. Why I.T. is changing Commoditisation Innovation Bespoke Products Services Cost of doing business
  • 68. Why I.T. is changing 1832 Innovation
  • 69. Why I.T. is changing 1832 Innovation Bespoke
  • 70. Why I.T. is changing 1837 1832 Innovation Bespoke Products
  • 71. Image from Oliver Twist
  • 72. Image from Chicago Historical Society
  • 73. Sccott Beale/Laughing Squid : http://www.flickr.com/photos/laughingsquid/
  • 74. http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/5/51/Metropolis.jpg
  • 75. Why I.T. is changing 1890 1837 1832 Utility Innovation Bespoke Products Grids (Services)
  • 76. Why I.T. is changing Harvey Hubbell (1857-1927)
  • 77. Why I.T. is changing 1930 1837 1832 National Innovation Bespoke Products Grid (Services)
  • 78. Why I.T. is changing As IT becomes ubiquitous it has no strategic value Nicholas Carr
  • 79. Why I.T. is changing Yesterday’s Today’s hot stuff boredom
  • 80. Why I.T. is changing Not all IT is the same.
  • 81. Why I.T. is changing As IT [activities] becomes ubiquitous it has no strategic value Nicholas Carr
  • 82. Why I.T. is changing s v ice Ser Y u cts d P ro o ke sp Be t ion va no In X
  • 83. Why I.T. is changing Ubiquity
  • 84. Why I.T. is changing Ubiquity Novel
  • 85. Why I.T. is changing Common Ubiquity Novel
  • 86. Why I.T. is changing Common Ubiquity Novel Certainty
  • 87. Why I.T. is changing Common Ubiquity Novel Low Certainty
  • 88. Why I.T. is changing Common Ubiquity Novel Low Certainty High
  • 89. Why I.T. is changing Common TV’s & Phones Ubiquity Novel Low High Certainty
  • 90. Why I.T. is changing Common Ubiquity Novel Low High Certainty
  • 91. Why I.T. is changing Common Ubiquity Innovation Novel Low High Certainty
  • 92. Why I.T. is changing Common Services Ubiquity Products Bespoke Innovation Novel Low High Certainty
  • 93. Why I.T. is changing Common Ubiquity Innovation of CRM. Novel Low High Certainty
  • 94. Why I.T. is changing Common Ubiquity Mid '80s DB marketing. Novel Low High Certainty
  • 95. Why I.T. is changing Common CRM products 90’s Ubiquity Novel Low High Certainty
  • 96. Why I.T. is changing Common “Cloud Providers” like Salesforce Ubiquity Novel Low High Certainty
  • 97. Why I.T. is changing Common Expense Payroll Procedure Accounts Payable Company Web site Ubiquity Wiki Social Network Analysis Novel Low High Certainty
  • 98. Why I.T. is changing Common Expense Payroll Procedure Accounts Payable Company Web site Ubiquity Wiki Social Network Analysis Novel Low High Certainty
  • 99. Why I.T. is changing Common Ubiquity Novel Low High Certainty
  • 100. Why I.T. is changing Common Ubiquity Products Novel Low High Certainty
  • 101. Why I.T. is changing Common Widespread Ubiquity Novel Low High Certainty
  • 102. Why I.T. is changing Common Widespread Ubiquity Feature Complete Novel Low High Certainty
  • 103. Why I.T. is changing Common Widespread Ubiquity Feature Complete Novel Low High Certainty
  • 104. Why I.T. is changing Common “as a Service” Volume Operations Services Ubiquity Novel Low High Certainty
  • 105. Why I.T. is changing Utility Computing John McCarthy
  • 106. Why I.T. is changing Innovation Bespoke Products Services highly disruptive
  • 107. Why I.T. is changing The fundamental impulse that sets and keeps the capitalist engine in motion comes from the new consumers, goods, the new methods of production or transportation, the new markets, the new forms of industrial organization that capitalist enterprise creates. Joseph A. Schumpeter (1883 - 1950)!
  • 108. Why I.T. is changing The fundamental impulse that sets and keeps the capitalist engine in motion comes from the new consumers, goods, the new methods of production or transportation, the new markets, the new forms of industrial organization that capitalist enterprise creates. Joseph A. Schumpeter (1883 - 1950)!
  • 109. Why I.T. is changing Creative Destruction Joseph A. Schumpeter (1883 - 1950)!
  • 110. Why I.T. is changing Commoditisation Innovation Bespoke Products Services
  • 111. Why I.T. is changing Innovation Bespoke Products Services
  • 112. Why I.T. is changing Power Innovation Bespoke Products Hardware Internet
  • 113. Why I.T. is changing Power Google Bespoke Products Hardware Internet
  • 114. 67 definitions of “cloud computing”
  • 115. Why I.T. is changing Commoditisation Innovation Services Enables Joseph A. Schumpeter (1883 - 1950)!
  • 116. Why I.T. is changing Commoditisation Innovation Services Accelerates Herbert A. Simon (1916 - 2001)
  • 117. Why I.T. is changing Rate of evolution of a system Innovation Services
  • 118. Why I.T. is changing Rate of evolution of a system directly related Innovation Services to organisation of its subsystems
  • 119. Why I.T. is changing Componentisation Herbert A. Simon (1916 - 2001)
  • 120. Why I.T. is changing Operating System Hypervisor CPU Memory I/O
  • 121. Why I.T. is changing Database Framework Messaging Operating System Hypervisor CPU Memory I/O
  • 122. Why I.T. is changing Application Service Database Framework Messaging Operating System Hypervisor CPU Memory I/O
  • 123. Why I.T. is changing Application Service Database Framework Messaging Operating System Hypervisor CPU Memory I/O
  • 124. Why I.T. is changing Application Service Database Framework Messaging Operating System Hypervisor CPU Memory I/O
  • 125. Why I.T. is changing Application Service Database Framework Messaging Operating System Hypervisor CPU Memory I/O
  • 126. Why I.T. is changing Application Service Database Framework Messaging x 100 Operating System Hypervisor CPU Memory I/O
  • 127. Why I.T. is changing Application Service Database Platform Messaging Operating System Hypervisor CPU Memory I/O
  • 128. Why I.T. is changing Application Service ase Platform Messaging Operating System Hypervisor Infrastructure Memory I/O
  • 129. Why I.T. is changing Application Service ase Platform Messaging Platform Operating System Virtualisation Infrastructure Memory I/O
  • 130. Why I.T. is changing Application Service Application ase Platform Messaging Platform Operating System Virtualisation Infrastructure Memory I/O
  • 131. Why I.T. is changing Application Platform Infrastructure Innovation Bespoke Products Services
  • 132. Why I.T. is changing Application Platform Infrastructure Innovation Bespoke Products Services (Componentisation)
  • 133. Why I.T. is changing Common Widespread Ubiquity Feature Complete Novel Low High Certainty
  • 134. Why I.T. is changing Common Volume Operations Services Ubiquity Novel Low High Certainty
  • 135. Why I.T. is changing Infrastructure as a Service Amazon EC2
  • 136. Why I.T. is changing Google App Platform as a Service Engine Infrastructure as a Service Amazon EC2
  • 137. Why I.T. is changing Software as a Service SalesForce Google App Platform as a Service Engine Infrastructure as a Service Amazon EC2
  • 138. Why I.T. is changing As IT [activities] becomes ubiquitous it has no strategic value Nicholas Carr
  • 139. Why I.T. is changing Commoditisation Innovation Bespoke Products Services Cost of doing business
  • 140. Why I.T. is changing Application Platform Infrastructure Innovation Bespoke Products Services Disruptive Shift
  • 141. Why I.T. is changing Application Platform Infrastructure Innovation Bespoke Products Services (Componentisation)
  • 142. Why I.T. is changing “Cloud computing” is a consequence of economic and technological conditions that have combined to cause a disruptive change in I.T. towards a service based economy.
  • 143. Why I.T. is changing Creative Destruction Joseph A. Schumpeter (1883 - 1950)!
  • 144. Why I.T. is changing Utility Computing John McCarthy
  • 145. Recap
  • 146. Recap Commoditisation Innovation Bespoke Products Services
  • 147. Recap Common Expense Payroll Procedure Accounts Payable Company Web site Ubiquity Wiki Social Netwok Analysis Novel Low High Certainty
  • 148. Recap Common Services Ubiquity Products Bespoke Innovation Novel Low High Certainty
  • 149. Recap http://www.strassmann.com/ Paul Strassmann
  • 150. Recap Componentisation Herbert A. Simon (1916 - 2001)
  • 151. Recap Application Service Application ase Platform Messaging Platform Operating System Virtualisation Infrastructure Memory I/O
  • 152. Recap Application Platform Infrastructure Innovation Bespoke Products Services Disruptive
  • 153. Recap Common “As a Service” Services Ubiquity Novel Low High Certainty
  • 154. Recap Software as a Service SalesForce Google App Platform as a Service Engine Infrastructure as a Service Amazon EC2
  • 155. Recap Utility Computing John McCarthy
  • 156. Transition
  • 157. Recap “Cloud computing” is a consequence of economic and technological conditions that have combined to cause a disruptive change in I.T. towards a service based economy.
  • 158. Cloud ! Product
  • 159. Why I.T. is changing. Benefits & Risks.
  • 160. Benefits & Risks of Cloud Computing • Economies of scale. (volume)
  • 161. Benefits & Risks of Cloud Computing • Economies of scale. (volume) • Pay per use. (utility)
  • 162. Benefits & Risks of Cloud Computing • Economies of scale. (volume) • Pay per use. (utility) • Speed to market. (componentisation)
  • 163. Benefits & Risks of Cloud Computing • Economies of scale. (volume) • Pay per use. (utility) • Speed to market. (componentisation) • Focus on core. (outsourcing)
  • 164. Benefits & Risks of Cloud Computing Common Ubiquity You Novel Low High Certainty
  • 165. Benefits & Risks of Cloud Computing Common Market Ubiquity You Novel Low High Certainty
  • 166. Benefits & Risks of Cloud Computing Common Market Competitive Ubiquity Gap You Novel Low High Certainty
  • 167. Benefits & Risks of Cloud Computing Common Market Ubiquity You Novel Low High Certainty
  • 168. http://www.flickr.com/photos/privatenobby
  • 169. http://www.flickr.com/photos/billege
  • 170. http://www.flickr.com/photos/giddygoose/
  • 171. Benefits & Risks of Cloud Computing The need to constantly evolve in order to stand still relative to an eco- system. Professor Leigh M.Van Valen
  • 172. Benefits & Risks of Cloud Computing Red Queen Hypothesis Professor Leigh M.Van Valen
  • 173. Benefits & Risks of Cloud Computing Common Market • Economies of scale. (volume) • Pay per use. (utility) • Speed to market. Competitive (componentisation) Gap • Focus on core. (outsourcing) You Novel Low High
  • 174. Benefits & Risks of Cloud Computing Application Platform Infrastructure Innovation Bespoke Products Services Disruptive Shift
  • 175. Benefits & Risks of Cloud Computing Transition • Management.
  • 176. Benefits & Risks of Cloud Computing Transition • Management. • Trust.
  • 177. Benefits & Risks of Cloud Computing Transition • Management. • Trust. • Transparency.
  • 178. Benefits & Risks of Cloud Computing Transition • Management. • Trust. • Transparency. • Security of supply
  • 179. Benefits & Risks of Cloud Computing Common Services Ubiquity Novel Low High Certainty
  • 180. Benefits & Risks of Cloud Computing Transition General • Management. • Suitability. • Trust. • Transparency. • Security of supply.
  • 181. Benefits & Risks of Cloud Computing Transition General • Management. • Suitability. • Trust. • Price competition. • Transparency. • Security of supply.
  • 182. Benefits & Risks of Cloud Computing Transition General • Management. • Suitability. • Trust. • Price competition. • Transparency. • Lock-in. • Security of supply.
  • 183. Benefits & Risks of Cloud Computing Transition General • Management. • Suitability. • Trust. • Price competition. • Transparency. • Lock-in. • Security of supply. • Second sourcing.
  • 184. Benefits & Risks of Cloud Computing Adoption Barriers
  • 185. Benefits & Risks of Cloud Computing Common Market Gap Vs You Novel Low High
  • 186. Why I.T. is changing. Benefits & Risks. Canonical and the Cloud.
  • 187. Canonical and the Cloud
  • 188. Canonical and the Cloud • Fastest growing Linux-based operating system.
  • 189. Canonical and the Cloud • Fastest growing Linux-based operating system. • Over 10,000,000 users.
  • 190. Canonical and the Cloud Transition General • Management. • Suitability. • Trust. • Price competition. • Transparency. • Lock-in. • Security of supply. • Second sourcing.
  • 191. Canonical and the Cloud Electricity
  • 192. Canonical and the Cloud Electricity BOOM!
  • 193. Canonical and the Cloud Standard Output BOOM!
  • 194. Canonical and the Cloud Application Platform Infrastructure
  • 195. Canonical and the Cloud Application Platform Infrastructure
  • 196. Canonical and the Cloud Data You Application
  • 197. Canonical and the Cloud Data Application Platform Operating Provider System (i.e. CogHead) Hypervisor Bare Metal
  • 198. Canonical and the Cloud Data Application Platform Operating System BOOM! Hypervisor Bare Metal
  • 199. Canonical and the Cloud Data Application Platform Platform Operating Operating System System BOOM! Hypervisor Hypervisor Bare Metal Bare Metal
  • 200. Canonical and the Cloud Data Application Platform Multiple Platform Providers Operating Operating System System Hypervisor Hypervisor Bare Metal Bare Metal
  • 201. Canonical and the Cloud Data Application Platform Easy Platform Switching Operating Operating System System Hypervisor Hypervisor Bare Metal Bare Metal
  • 202. Canonical and the Cloud Data Application Platform Standard Platform Output Operating Operating System System Hypervisor Hypervisor Bare Metal Bare Metal
  • 203. Canonical and the Cloud Paul Baran
  • 204. Canonical and the Cloud IPX / SPX Banyan Vines AppleTalk SNA DECNET
  • 205. Canonical and the Cloud IPX / SPX Banyan Vines AppleTalk TCP/IP SNA Decnet
  • 206. Canonical and the Cloud IPX / SPX Banyan Vines AppleTalk TCP/IP SNA Decnet Open
  • 207. Canonical and the Cloud IPX / SPX Banyan Vines Bind AppleTalk TCP/IP SendMail SNA Apache Decnet Open Open Source
  • 208. Canonical and the Cloud IPX / SPX Banyan Vines Innovation AppleTalk TCP/IP SNA Decnet (Componentisation)
  • 209. Canonical and the Cloud Harvey Hubbell (1857-1927)
  • 210. Canonical and the Cloud Application Platform Infrastructure
  • 211. Canonical and the Cloud Application Platform Amazon EC2
  • 212. Canonical and the Cloud Ubuntu Server Edition on Amazon EC2. http://www.ubuntu.com/ec2
  • 213. Canonical and the Cloud 9.04 (April) Ubuntu Enterprise Cloud http://www.ubuntu.com/cloud
  • 214. Canonical and the Cloud
  • 215. Canonical and the Cloud Tracks Amazon EC2 API Private cloud Eucalyptus VM Web UI KVM Hyp. Cloud Node Controller Controller Ubuntu Server Edition Physical Machines (bare bones)
  • 216. Canonical and the Cloud Tracks Amazon EC2 API Private cloud Eucalyptus VM Uses KVM hypervisor Web UI KVM Hyp. Cloud Node Controller Controller Ubuntu Server Edition Physical Machines (bare bones)
  • 217. Canonical and the Cloud Tracks Amazon EC2 API Private cloud Eucalyptus VM Uses KVM hypervisor Web UI KVM Hyp. Cloud Node Controller Controller EBS & S3 Equivalent Ubuntu Server Edition Physical Machines (bare bones)
  • 218. Canonical and the Cloud Tracks Amazon EC2 API Private cloud Eucalyptus VM Uses KVM hypervisor Web UI KVM Hyp. Cloud Node Controller Controller EBS & S3 Equivalent Ubuntu Server Edition Physical Machines (bare bones) Completely open sourced.
  • 219. Canonical and the Cloud Hypervisor Bare Metal Private Cloud
  • 220. Canonical and the Cloud Hypervisor Hypervisor Bare Metal Bare Metal Amazon EC2 Private Cloud
  • 221. Canonical and the Cloud Hypervisor Easy Hypervisor Switching Bare Metal Bare Metal Amazon EC2 Private Cloud
  • 222. Canonical and the Cloud Common • Economies of scale. (volume) Market • Pay per use. (utility) • Speed to market. (componentisation) Competitive Gap • Focus on core. (outsourcing) • Greener (efficient supply You & demand) Novel Low High
  • 223. Canonical and the Cloud Public cloud Private cloud Ubuntu MI Ubuntu MI EC2 UEC Portability and burst scalability
  • 224. Canonical and the Cloud Standard Ouptut
  • 225. Canonical and the Cloud Ecosystem
  • 226. Canonical and the Cloud Hypervisor Bare Metal
  • 227. Canonical and the Cloud Hypervisor Bare Metal Hypervisor Bare Metal
  • 228. Canonical and the Cloud Hypervisor Bare Metal Hypervisor Bare Metal
  • 229. Canonical and the Cloud Hypervisor Bare Metal Price Hypervisor Bare Metal
  • 230. Canonical and the Cloud Hypervisor Quality of Bare Metal Service Hypervisor Bare Metal
  • 231. Canonical and the Cloud Common Feature Differentiation Ubiquity Novel Low High Certainty
  • 232. Canonical and the Cloud Common Price vs QoS Ubiquity Novel Low High Certainty
  • 233. Canonical and the Cloud Competitive Market
  • 234. Recap
  • 235. Recap Commoditisation Innovation Bespoke Products Services
  • 236. Recap http://www.strassmann.com/ Paul Strassmann
  • 237. Recap Application Platform Infrastructure Innovation Bespoke Products Services Disruptive
  • 238. Recap Common “as a Service” Industry Ubiquity Novel Low High Certainty
  • 239. Recap Utility Computing John McCarthy
  • 240. Recap “Cloud computing” is a consequence of economic and technological conditions that have combined to cause a disruptive change in I.T. towards a service based economy.
  • 241. Recap • Economies of scale. (volume) • Pay per use. (utility) • Speed to market. (componentisation) • Focus on core. (outsourcing)
  • 242. Recap Common Market • Economies of scale. (volume) • Pay per use. (utility) • Speed to market. Competitive (componentisation) Gap • Focus on core. (outsourcing) You Novel Low High
  • 243. Recap Transition General • Management. • Suitability. • Trust. • Price competition. • Transparency. • Lock-in. • Security of supply. • Second sourcing.
  • 244. Recap Standard Output
  • 245. Recap IPX / SPX Banyan Vines Bind AppleTalk TCP/IP SendMail SNA Apache Decnet Open Open Source
  • 246. Recap Hypervisor Standard Hypervisor Output Bare Metal Bare Metal Amazon EC2 Private Cloud
  • 247. Recap 9.04 Ubuntu Enterprise Cloud (Eucalyptus)
  • 248. Recap Competitive Market
  • 249. Recap Hypervisor Bare Metal Hypervisor Bare Metal
  • 250. Is Cloud Computing a gamble?
  • 251. Yes
  • 252. Is cloud computing a gamble? Common Market • Economies of scale. (volume) • Pay per use. (utility) • Speed to market. Competitive (componentisation) Gap • Focus on core. (outsourcing) You Novel Low High
  • 253. Is cloud computing a gamble? what, whom, when?
  • 254. Is cloud computing a gamble? Transition General • Management. • Suitability. • Trust. • Price competition. • Transparency. • Lock-in. • Security of supply. • Second sourcing.
  • 255. Is cloud computing a gamble? Common Ubiquity Novel Low High Certainty
  • 256. Is cloud computing a gamble? Transition General • Management. • Suitability. • Trust. • Price competition. • Transparency. • Lock-in. • Security of supply. • Second sourcing.
  • 257. Is cloud computing a gamble? Standard Output
  • 258. Is cloud computing a gamble? Common Market Gap Vs You Novel Low High
  • 259. Is cloud computing a gamble? Transition General • Management. • Suitability. • Trust. • Price competition. • Transparency. • Lock-in. • Security of supply. • Second sourcing.
  • 260. Is cloud computing a gamble? Infrastructure as a Service Joe
  • 261. Is cloud computing a gamble? Joe Bare Metal Bare Metal Bare Metal
  • 262. Is cloud computing a gamble? Hypervisor Technology Joe Bare Metal Bare Metal Bare Metal
  • 263. Is cloud computing a gamble? Hypervisor Technology Joe Bare Metal Bare Metal Bare Metal
  • 264. Is cloud computing a gamble? Tom Storage Hypervisor Technology Bare Metal Bare Metal Bare Metal
  • 265. Is cloud computing a gamble? Storage Joe Hypervisor Technology Bare Metal Bare Metal Bare Metal
  • 266. Is cloud computing a gamble? Storage PaaS Dick Hypervisor Technology Bare Metal Bare Metal Bare Metal
  • 267. Is cloud computing a gamble? Storage Development Platform Dick Hypervisor Technology Bare Metal Bare Metal Bare Metal
  • 268. Is cloud computing a gamble? Storage Development Platform Hypervisor Technology Joe Bare Metal Bare Metal Bare Metal
  • 269. Is cloud computing a gamble? Harry Mapping API Storage Development Platform Hypervisor Technology Bare Metal Bare Metal Bare Metal
  • 270. Is cloud computing a gamble? Mapping API Tom Storage Development Platform Hypervisor Technology Bare Metal Bare Metal Bare Metal
  • 271. Is cloud computing a gamble? Mapping API SaaS Alice Storage Development Platform Hypervisor Technology Bare Metal Bare Metal Bare Metal
  • 272. Is cloud computing a gamble? Mapping API Transport Routing Alice Storage Development Platform Hypervisor Technology Bare Metal Bare Metal Bare Metal
  • 273. Is cloud computing a gamble? Harry Mapping API Transport Routing Storage Development Platform Hypervisor Technology Bare Metal Bare Metal Bare Metal
  • 274. Is cloud computing a gamble? Mapping API Transport Routing Tom Storage Development Platform Hypervisor Technology Bare Metal Bare Metal Bare Metal
  • 275. Is cloud computing a gamble? Mapping API Transport Routing Storage Development Platform Dick Hypervisor Technology Bare Metal Bare Metal Bare Metal
  • 276. Is cloud computing a gamble? Bob Mapping API Transport Routing Storage Development Platform Hypervisor Technology Bare Metal Bare Metal Bare Metal
  • 277. Is cloud computing a gamble? Mapping API Transport Routing Alice Storage Development Platform Hypervisor Technology Bare Metal Bare Metal Bare Metal
  • 278. Is cloud computing a gamble? Mapping API Transport Routing Storage Development Platform Hypervisor Technology Bare Metal Bare Metal Bare Metal
  • 279. Is cloud computing a gamble? Mapping API Transport Routing Storage Development Platform Hypervisor Technology Joe Bare Metal Bare Metal Bare Metal
  • 280. Is cloud computing a gamble? Mapping API Transport Routing Storage Development Platform Hypervisor Technology Joe
  • 281. Is cloud computing a gamble? fo rm P lat Map e nt ping API o pm elg evn Hype rviso t outi RD Sto r Tec spor rag e hnolran To gy
  • 282. Is cloud computing a gamble? Bob Alice
  • 283. Is cloud computing a gamble? Bob Alice Tom, Dick, Harry or Joe
  • 284. Is cloud computing a gamble? House House House Joe
  • 285. Is cloud computing a gamble? Tom Security House House House
  • 286. Is cloud computing a gamble? Dick Security House House House
  • 287. Benefits & Risks of Cloud Computing http://www.flickr.com/photos/rednuht/479370088
  • 288. Transparency
  • 289. Thank you simon.wardley@canonical.com
  • 290. whoops ...
  • 291. the outtakes ...
  • 292. i.e. more slides ...
  • 293. http://flickr.com/photos/jonnygoldstein/
  • 294. A. The Good, Bad & Ugly B. Part I - Why I.T. is complex C. Part II - The Paradox D. Part III - More or less E. Things to Watch F. A fast life G. Happy Clouds simon.wardley@canonical.com
  • 295. Good, Bad & Ugly
  • 296. http://www.flickr.com/photos/radioflyer007/
  • 297. The Good Application Platform Infrastructure Innovation Bespoke Products Services (Componentisation)
  • 298. http://flickr.com/photos/jonnygoldstein/
  • 299. The Bad Application Platform Infrastructure Innovation Bespoke Products Services Disruptive Shift
  • 300. The Bad Common Widespread Ubiquity Feature Complete Novel Low High Certainty
  • 301. The Bad As IT becomes ubiquitous it has no strategic value Nicholas Carr
  • 302. The Bad Creative Destruction Joseph A. Schumpeter (1883 - 1950)!
  • 303. The Ugly Utility Computing John McCarthy
  • 304. The Ugly Software Software as a Service (SaaS) Framework Framework as a Service (FaaS) Hardware as a Service (HaaS) Hardware 2007
  • 305. The Ugly “this is going to lead to a whole lot of aaS.” Oscon 2007 Robert Lefkowitz
  • 306. The Ugly 2007 - 2008
  • 307. The Ugly Software OaaS XaaS Application DaaS DBaaS Framework SaaSu Platform DaaS DaaS SaaSy SaaSp PaaS SaaS HaaS FaaS Hardware WaaS Infrastructure IaaS FaaS 2008
  • 308. The Ugly Application Application as a Service (SaaS) Platform Platform as a Service (PaaS) Infrastructure as a Service (IaaS) Infrastructure 2009
  • 309. Terminology.
  • 310. A. The Good, Bad & Ugly B. Part I - Why I.T. is complex C. Part II - The Paradox D. Part III - More or less E. Things to Watch F. A fast life G. Happy Clouds simon.wardley@canonical.com
  • 311. Part I Why I.T. is complex
  • 312. Complexity Common Ubiquity Innovation of CRM. Novel Low High Certainty
  • 313. Complexity Common Uncertain Ubiquity Novel Low High Certainty
  • 314. Complexity Common Uncertain Ubiquity Deviation Novel Low High Certainty
  • 315. Complexity Common Uncertain Ubiquity Deviation Differential Novel Low High Certainty
  • 316. Complexity Common Uncertain Ubiquity Deviation Differential Novel Worth Low High Certainty
  • 317. Complexity Common Ubiquity Dynamic Novel Low High Certainty
  • 318. Complexity Common Ubiquity Agile XP / Scrum Novel Low High Certainty
  • 319. Complexity Common Utility-like provision of CRM Ubiquity Novel Low High Certainty
  • 320. Complexity Common “Cloud Providers” like Salesforce Ubiquity Novel Low High Certainty
  • 321. Complexity Common Defined Ubiquity Novel Low High Certainty
  • 322. Complexity Common Defined No Deviation Ubiquity Novel Low High Certainty
  • 323. Complexity Common Defined No Deviation CODB Ubiquity Novel Low High Certainty
  • 324. Complexity Common Defined No Deviation CODB Ubiquity Cost Novel Low High Certainty
  • 325. Complexity Common Defined Ubiquity Novel Low High Certainty
  • 326. Complexity Common Prince 2, Six Sigma Ubiquity Novel Low High Certainty
  • 327. Complexity Common Prince 2, Six Sigma Ubiquity Agile XP, Scrum Novel Low High Certainty
  • 328. Complexity Common CRM Ubiquity CRM Novel Low High Certainty
  • 329. Complexity Common Six Sigma Ubiquity Novel Low High Certainty
  • 330. Complexity Common COMMODITY Ubiquity Novel Low High Certainty
  • 331. Complexity Common Ubiquity INNOVATION Novel Low High Certainty
  • 332. Complexity Common Different Ubiquity Methodologies Novel Low High Certainty
  • 333. A. The Good, Bad & Ugly B. Part I - Why I.T. is complex C. Part II - The Paradox D. Part III - More or less E. Things to Watch F. A fast life G. Happy Clouds simon.wardley@canonical.com
  • 334. Part II The Paradox
  • 335. Complexity ... Part II Common Prince 2, Six Sigma Ubiquity Agile XP, Scrum Novel Low High Certainty
  • 336. Complexity ... Part II Common Six Sigma Ubiquity INNOVATION Novel Low High Certainty
  • 337. Complexity ... Part II Common Expense Payroll Procedure Accounts Payable Company Web site Ubiquity Wiki Social Network Analysis Novel Low High Certainty
  • 338. Complexity ... Part II Common Market Competitive Ubiquity Gap You Novel Low High Certainty
  • 339. Complexity ... Part II The need to constantly evolve in order to stand still relative to an eco- system. Professor Leigh M.Van Valen
  • 340. Complexity ... Part II The fundamental impulse that sets and keeps the capitalist engine in motion comes from the new consumers, goods, the new methods of production or transportation, the new markets, the new forms of industrial organization that capitalist enterprise creates. Joseph A. Schumpeter (1883 - 1950)!
  • 341. http://www.sandowplus.co.uk/
  • 342. Complexity ... Part II Innovation Paradox Survival today requires ‘coherence, coordination and stability’ [order]. & Survival tomorrow requires the replacement of these virtues [disorder]. Salaman & Storey
  • 343. Complexity ... Part II Common Order Ubiquity Disorder Novel Low High Certainty
  • 344. http://www.flickr.com/photos/privatenobby
  • 345. Complexity ... Part II Common Six Sigma Ubiquity Novel Low High Certainty
  • 346. Complexity ... Part II Common Ubiquity Novel Low High Certainty
  • 347. Complexity ... Part II Common Ubiquity 20% Rule Novel Low High Certainty
  • 348. Complexity ... Part II Common Rigorous defined procedures Ubiquity 20% Rule Novel Low High Certainty
  • 349. A. The Good, Bad & Ugly B. Part I - Why I.T. is complex C. Part II - The Paradox D. Part III - More or less E. Things to Watch F. A fast life G. Happy Clouds simon.wardley@canonical.com
  • 350. Things to watch ...
  • 351. Things to watch Application Platform Infrastructure
  • 352. Things to watch Competitive Market
  • 353. Things to watch Data Application Platform Standard Platform Output Operating Operating System System Hypervisor Hypervisor Bare Metal Bare Metal
  • 354. Things to watch Platform
  • 355. Things to watch Technology Platform Vendor
  • 356. Things to watch Provider Technology Vendor
  • 357. Things to watch Provider Consumer Technology Vendor
  • 358. Things to watch Provider Consumer Technology Vendor ISV
  • 359. Things to watch Provider Consumer Technology Vendor ISV
  • 360. Things to watch Provider Consumer Technology Locked-in Vendor ISV
  • 361. Things to watch Provider Consumer Open Standard ISV
  • 362. Things to watch Provider Consumer EXTEND ISV
  • 363. Things to watch Common Feature Differentiation Ubiquity Novel Low High Certainty
  • 364. Things to watch Common Price vs QoS Ubiquity Novel Low High Certainty
  • 365. Things to watch Open Platform Source Reference Model
  • 366. A. The Good, Bad & Ugly B. Why Transparency Matters C. Part I - Why I.T. is complex D. Part II - The Paradox E. Part III - More or less F. Things to Watch G. A fast life H. Happy Clouds simon.wardley@canonical.com
  • 367. Part III More Or Less ...
  • 368. http://www.flickr.com/photos/radioflyer007/ http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/5/51/Metropolis.jpg
  • 369. http://www.flickr.com/photos/radioflyer007/ http://petjunction.blogspot.com/2007/07/adorables.html
  • 370. I’m in ur Internets http://www.flickr.com/photos/radioflyer007/ http://petjunction.blogspot.com/2007/07/adorables.html
  • 371. I’m in ur Internets ... web fohwr zero!! http://www.flickr.com/photos/radioflyer007/ http://petjunction.blogspot.com/2007/07/adorables.html
  • 372. More innovation Common Ubiquity Novel Low High Certainty
  • 373. More innovation Common Payroll Ubiquity Novel Low High Certainty
  • 374. More innovation Common Payroll Company Web site Ubiquity Novel Low High Certainty
  • 375. More innovation Common Payroll Company Web site Ubiquity Neuristic Kitten Thing Novel Low High Certainty
  • 376. More innovation Common Dynamic Ubiquity Novel Low High Certainty
  • 377. More innovation Common Ubiquity INNOVATION Novel Low High Certainty
  • 378. More innovation Common Market Competitive Ubiquity Gap You Novel Low High Certainty
  • 379. http://www.flickr.com/photos/radioflyer007/ http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/5/51/Metropolis.jpg
  • 380. More innovation The need to constantly evolve in order to stand still relative to an eco- system. Professor Leigh M.Van Valen
  • 381. More innovation “more efficient”
  • 382. http://www.flickr.com/photos/radioflyer007/
  • 383. More innovation “more process”
  • 384. More innovation Common Defined Processes Ubiquity Novel Low High Certainty
  • 385. More innovation Common COMMODITY Ubiquity Novel Low High Certainty
  • 386. http://www.flickr.com/photos/radioflyer007/ http://petjunction.blogspot.com/2007/07/adorables.html
  • 387. More innovation Common COMMODITY Ubiquity Novel Low High Certainty
  • 388. More innovation Common Defined Ubiquity Novel Low High Certainty
  • 389. More innovation Common Ubiquity INNOVATION Novel Low High Certainty
  • 390. More innovation Creative Destruction Joseph A. Schumpeter (1883 - 1950)!
  • 391. http://www.flickr.com/photos/radioflyer007/ http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/5/51/Metropolis.jpg
  • 392. http://www.flickr.com/photos/radioflyer007/ http://petjunction.blogspot.com/2007/07/adorables.html
  • 393. More innovation “innovate more”
  • 394. http://www.flickr.com/photos/radioflyer007/
  • 395. More innovation “less process”
  • 396. More innovation “more process”
  • 397. http://flickr.com/photos/jonnygoldstein/
  • 398. Image from Oliver Twist,
  • 399. More innovation “ideas process”
  • 400. More innovation Common Rigorous defined procedures Ubiquity Skunk works Novel Low High Certainty
  • 401. A. The Good, Bad & Ugly B. Part I - Why I.T. is complex C. Part II - The Paradox D. Part III - More or less E. Things to Watch F. A fast life G. Happy Clouds simon.wardley@canonical.com
  • 402. Adopt a fast life ...
  • 403. Fast life Commoditisation Innovation Bespoke Products Services
  • 404. Fast life Innovation Bespoke Products Services Product Competition
  • 405. Fast life Adoption Laggards Early Time Products
  • 406. Fast life Adoption “Original” “New and Improved” Time Products
  • 407. http://www.flickr.com/photos/mush2274
  • 408. http://www.flickr.com/photos/mush2274/
  • 409. Fast life Diffusion of Product Innovation Everett Rogers ( 1931 - 2004 )
  • 410. Fast life Common Product Ubiquity Novel Low High Certainty
  • 411. Fast life Common Product Ubiquity INNOVATION Novel Low High Certainty
  • 412. Fast life Adoption “Original” “New and Improved” Time Products
  • 413. Fast life Common Widespread Product Ubiquity Feature Complete INNOVATION Novel Low High Certainty
  • 414. Fast life Common Services Product Ubiquity INNOVATION Novel Low High Certainty
  • 415. Fast life Innovation Bespoke Products Services highly disruptive
  • 416. Fast life Common Standard Components Ubiquity Novel Low High Certainty
  • 417. Fast life Common Standard Components Componentisation Ubiquity Novel Low High Certainty
  • 418. Fast life Common Standard Components Componentisation Ubiquity Innovation Novel Low High Certainty
  • 419. Fast life Common Standard Components Componentisation Ubiquity Commoditisation Innovation Novel Low High Certainty
  • 420. Fast life Common Standard Components Componentisation Ubiquity Commoditisation Innovation Novel Low High Certainty
  • 421. Fast life Common Standard Components Componentisation Ubiquity Commoditisation Innovation Novel Low High Certainty
  • 422. http://www.flickr.com/photos/mush2274/
  • 423. A. The Good, Bad & Ugly B. Part I - Why I.T. is complex C. Part II - The Paradox D. Part III - More or less E. Things to Watch F. A fast life G. Happy Clouds simon.wardley@canonical.com
  • 424. Happy clouds ...
  • 425. Happy Clouds Three Rules happy
  • 426. Happy Clouds Three Rules happy Run the service on my own Rule 1 machines.
  • 427. Happy Clouds Three Rules happy Run the service on my own Rule 1 machines. Easily switch between my machines Rule 2 and a cloud provider.
  • 428. Happy Clouds Three Rules happy Run the service on my own Rule 1 machines. Easily switch between my machines Rule 2 and a cloud provider. Easily switch between cloud Rule 3 providers.
  • 429. Happy Clouds Hypervisor Bare Metal Private Cloud
  • 430. Happy Clouds Hypervisor Easy Hypervisor Switching Bare Metal Bare Metal Amazon EC2 Private Cloud
  • 431. Happy Clouds Competitive Market
  • 432. A. The Good, Bad & Ugly B. Part I - Why I.T. is complex C. Part II - The Paradox D. Part III - More or less E. Things to Watch F. A fast life G. Happy Clouds simon.wardley@canonical.com
  • 433. End ...
  • 434. Beyond End ...
  • 435. Common Services Ubiquity Products Bespoke Novel Innovation Low High Certainty

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