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Is
Cloud Computing
   a gamble?
Simon
Wardley
DANGER!
Will Robinson
 DANGER!
Sccott Beale/Laughing Squid : http://www.flickr.com/photos/laughingsquid/
Pain
Pain




       No. Slides
Pain    25 slides



                    Severe
                    risk of
                     harm

       OK
         ...
Pain            306 slides



            Severe
            risk of
             harm

       OK
                      No...
http://flickr.com/photos/jonnygoldstein/
Cloud Computing
What is
Cloud Computing?
http://www.flickr.com/photos/fimbrethil/
It’s like
computers on
 the internet,
     innit.
http://www.flickr.com/photos/radioflyer007/
http://www.flickr.com/photos/radioflyer007/
                                    http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/5/5...
Disruptive shift
of the computing
 stack to online
     services.
It’s like
computers on
 the internet,
     innit.
http://www.flickr.com/photos/radioflyer007/
Image from Oliver Twist,
It’s like SaaS or software as a service, and
  infrastructure provision and PaaS, that’s
       platform as a Service and ...
67 definitions
photos/videoplacebo/3481780379/
Pain            306 slides



            Severe
            risk of
             harm

       OK
                      No...
1. On-demand self-service
  Internet infrastructure where you
pay-as-you-go and use only what you
   need, all managed by ...
1. On-demand self-service
  Internet infrastructure where you
pay-as-you-go and use only what you
   need, all managed by ...
+ 8 definitions
2.    A new generation of computing
that utilizes distant servers for data
 storage and management, allowing
the device to...
2.    A new generation of computing
that utilizes distant servers for data
 storage and management, allowing
the device to...
2.    A new generation of computing
that utilizes distant servers for data
 storage and management, allowing
the device to...
3.   the ability to draw IT resources
from a third party source.
No definition
http://www.flickr.com/photos/radioflyer007/
Our
Cloud =
        Product
What is
 Industrial
Revolution?
http://www.flickr.com/photos/fimbrethil/
It’s like
mechanised
horses, innit.
43 definitions
1. Broad socioeconomic and
technological changes starting in the
        early 18th century.
2. Rapid development of industry in
      the early 19th century.
No definition
Not a thing
Transition
Industrial Revolution is a period in
the18th and 19th centuries when major
changes in agriculture, manufacturing, mining,
...
It’s like
mechanised
horses, innit.
It’s like
computers on
 the internet,
     innit.
“Cloud computing” is a consequence of
economic and technological conditions that
have combined to cause a disruptive chang...
Why I.T. is changing.
Why I.T. is changing.

 Benefits & Risks.
Why I.T. is changing.

   Benefits & Risks.

Canonical and the Cloud.
Is
Cloud Computing
   a gamble?
Why I.T. is changing.
Why I.T. is changing




                         http://www.strassmann.com/




       Paul Strassmann
Why I.T. is changing




   Not all IT is the same.
Why I.T. is changing




      Not all IT has value.
Why I.T. is changing




      imperfect to perfect
         competition
Why I.T. is changing




    Yesterday’s
     hot stuff
Why I.T. is changing




    Yesterday’s         Today’s
     hot stuff         boredom
http://www.flickr.com/photos/privatenobby
http://www.flickr.com/photos/billege
http://www.flickr.com/photos/billege/
Why I.T. is changing




       Innovation
Why I.T. is changing




       Innovation      Bespoke
Why I.T. is changing




       Innovation      Bespoke   Products
Why I.T. is changing




       Innovation      Bespoke   Products   Services
Why I.T. is changing



    Commoditisation




       Innovation      Bespoke   Products   Services
Why I.T. is changing



    Commoditisation




       Innovation      Bespoke   Products   Services




Competitive Advan...
Why I.T. is changing



    Commoditisation




       Innovation      Bespoke   Products   Services




             Cost...
Why I.T. is changing




        1832

       Innovation
Why I.T. is changing




        1832

       Innovation      Bespoke
Why I.T. is changing




                                 1837

        1832

       Innovation      Bespoke   Products
Image from Oliver Twist
Image from Chicago Historical Society
Sccott Beale/Laughing Squid : http://www.flickr.com/photos/laughingsquid/
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/5/51/Metropolis.jpg
Why I.T. is changing



                                             1890
                                 1837

        1...
Why I.T. is changing




          Harvey Hubbell
           (1857-1927)
Why I.T. is changing



                                             1930
                                 1837

        1...
Why I.T. is changing




                          As IT becomes ubiquitous
                           it has no strategic...
Why I.T. is changing




    Yesterday’s         Today’s
     hot stuff         boredom
Why I.T. is changing




   Not all IT is the same.
Why I.T. is changing




                             As IT [activities]
                          becomes ubiquitous it h...
Why I.T. is changing




                                                            s
                                   ...
Why I.T. is changing

    Ubiquity
Why I.T. is changing

      Ubiquity

                 Novel
Why I.T. is changing


                 Common
      Ubiquity

                    Novel
Why I.T. is changing


                 Common
      Ubiquity

                 Novel




                          Certai...
Why I.T. is changing


                 Common
      Ubiquity

                 Novel




                          Low
  ...
Why I.T. is changing


                 Common
      Ubiquity

                 Novel




                          Low
  ...
Why I.T. is changing


                 Common




                                            TV’s & Phones
      Ubiquit...
Why I.T. is changing


                 Common
      Ubiquity

                 Novel




                          Low   ...
Why I.T. is changing


                 Common
      Ubiquity




                          Innovation
                 No...
Why I.T. is changing


                 Common



                                                     Services
      Ubiq...
Why I.T. is changing


                 Common
      Ubiquity




                                Innovation
             ...
Why I.T. is changing


                 Common
      Ubiquity




                                     Mid '80s DB
       ...
Why I.T. is changing


                 Common




                                CRM products
                          ...
Why I.T. is changing


                 Common


                                        “Cloud Providers”
               ...
Why I.T. is changing


                 Common

                                                  Expense           Payrol...
Why I.T. is changing


                 Common

                                                  Expense           Payrol...
Why I.T. is changing


                 Common
      Ubiquity

                 Novel




                          Low   ...
Why I.T. is changing


                 Common
      Ubiquity




                                Products
               ...
Why I.T. is changing


                 Common




                                Widespread
      Ubiquity

            ...
Why I.T. is changing


                 Common




                                Widespread
      Ubiquity




         ...
Why I.T. is changing


                 Common




                                Widespread
      Ubiquity




         ...
Why I.T. is changing


                 Common


                             “as a Service”
                          Vol...
Why I.T. is changing




                           Utility
                         Computing

         John McCarthy
Why I.T. is changing




       Innovation      Bespoke    Products   Services




                       highly disruptive
Why I.T. is changing




                                       The fundamental impulse that sets
                        ...
Why I.T. is changing




                                       The fundamental impulse that sets
                        ...
Why I.T. is changing




                                        Creative
                                       Destructi...
Why I.T. is changing



    Commoditisation




       Innovation      Bespoke   Products   Services
Why I.T. is changing




       Innovation      Bespoke   Products   Services
Why I.T. is changing




                                             Power



       Innovation      Bespoke   Products  ...
Why I.T. is changing




                                             Power



         Google        Bespoke   Products  ...
67 definitions of
“cloud computing”
Why I.T. is changing




                                       Commoditisation




                                      ...
Why I.T. is changing




                                   Commoditisation




                                   Innovat...
Why I.T. is changing




   Rate of evolution
     of a system

                       Innovation   Services
Why I.T. is changing




   Rate of evolution
     of a system

  directly related      Innovation   Services

  to

  org...
Why I.T. is changing




                                   Componentisation



  Herbert A. Simon (1916 - 2001)
Why I.T. is changing




                       Operating System


                          Hypervisor


              CP...
Why I.T. is changing




             Database     Framework        Messaging


                        Operating System

...
Why I.T. is changing




                       Application             Service


             Database          Framework...
Why I.T. is changing




                       Application             Service


             Database          Framework...
Why I.T. is changing




                       Application             Service


             Database          Framework...
Why I.T. is changing




                       Application             Service


             Database          Framework...
Why I.T. is changing




                       Application             Service


             Database          Framework...
Why I.T. is changing




                       Application             Service


             Database           Platform...
Why I.T. is changing




 Application              Service


ase       Platform       Messaging


      Operating System

...
Why I.T. is changing




 Application              Service


ase       Platform       Messaging     Platform


      Opera...
Why I.T. is changing




 Application              Service     Application


ase       Platform       Messaging     Platfo...
Why I.T. is changing



                                     Application
                                      Platform


...
Why I.T. is changing



                                     Application
                                      Platform


...
Why I.T. is changing


                 Common




                                Widespread
      Ubiquity




         ...
Why I.T. is changing


                 Common



                          Volume Operations

                           ...
Why I.T. is changing




  Infrastructure as a Service   Amazon EC2
Why I.T. is changing




                                Google App
     Platform as a Service        Engine




  Infrast...
Why I.T. is changing




     Software as a Service      SalesForce

                                Google App
     Platf...
Why I.T. is changing




                             As IT [activities]
                          becomes ubiquitous it h...
Why I.T. is changing



    Commoditisation




       Innovation      Bespoke   Products   Services




             Cost...
Why I.T. is changing



                                      Application
                                       Platform
...
Why I.T. is changing



                                     Application
                                      Platform


...
Why I.T. is changing




  “Cloud computing” is a consequence of
  economic and technological conditions that
  have combi...
Why I.T. is changing




                                        Creative
                                       Destructi...
Why I.T. is changing




                           Utility
                         Computing

         John McCarthy
Recap
Recap



   Commoditisation




        Innovation   Bespoke   Products   Services
Recap


                   Common

                                                   Expense           Payroll
          ...
Recap


                   Common



                                                       Services
        Ubiquity




...
Recap




                          http://www.strassmann.com/




        Paul Strassmann
Recap




                                     Componentisation



    Herbert A. Simon (1916 - 2001)
Recap




 Application                Service     Application


ase         Platform       Messaging     Platform


      ...
Recap



                                    Application
                                     Platform


                 ...
Recap


                   Common



                                  “As a Service”

                                   ...
Recap




    Software as a Service      SalesForce

                               Google App
    Platform as a Service  ...
Recap




                          Utility
                        Computing

        John McCarthy
Transition
Recap




 “Cloud computing” is a consequence of
 economic and technological conditions that
 have combined to cause a dis...
Cloud   !   Product
Why I.T. is changing.

 Benefits & Risks.
Benefits & Risks of Cloud Computing




 • Economies of scale. (volume)
Benefits & Risks of Cloud Computing




 • Economies of scale. (volume)
 • Pay per use. (utility)
Benefits & Risks of Cloud Computing




 • Economies of scale. (volume)
 • Pay per use. (utility)
 • Speed to market. (comp...
Benefits & Risks of Cloud Computing




 • Economies of scale. (volume)
 • Pay per use. (utility)
 • Speed to market. (comp...
Benefits & Risks of Cloud Computing


                Common
     Ubiquity




                               You
         ...
Benefits & Risks of Cloud Computing


                Common



                                                 Market
   ...
Benefits & Risks of Cloud Computing


                Common



                                                 Market



...
Benefits & Risks of Cloud Computing


                Common



                                                 Market
   ...
http://www.flickr.com/photos/privatenobby
http://www.flickr.com/photos/billege
http://www.flickr.com/photos/giddygoose/
Benefits & Risks of Cloud Computing




                                  The need to constantly
                          ...
Benefits & Risks of Cloud Computing




                                  Red Queen
                                  Hypot...
Benefits & Risks of Cloud Computing




                                   Common
                                         ...
Benefits & Risks of Cloud Computing



                                      Application
                                  ...
Benefits & Risks of Cloud Computing




      Transition
   • Management.
Benefits & Risks of Cloud Computing




      Transition
   • Management.
   • Trust.
Benefits & Risks of Cloud Computing




      Transition
   • Management.
   • Trust.
   • Transparency.
Benefits & Risks of Cloud Computing




      Transition
   • Management.
   • Trust.
   • Transparency.
   • Security of s...
Benefits & Risks of Cloud Computing


                Common




                                           Services
     U...
Benefits & Risks of Cloud Computing




      Transition                        General
   • Management.                   ...
Benefits & Risks of Cloud Computing




      Transition                        General
   • Management.                   ...
Benefits & Risks of Cloud Computing




      Transition                        General
   • Management.                   ...
Benefits & Risks of Cloud Computing




      Transition                        General
   • Management.                   ...
Benefits & Risks of Cloud Computing




             Adoption Barriers
Benefits & Risks of Cloud Computing
Common




               Market


                           Gap            Vs
       ...
Why I.T. is changing.

   Benefits & Risks.

Canonical and the Cloud.
Canonical and the Cloud
Canonical and the Cloud




 • Fastest growing Linux-based operating system.
Canonical and the Cloud




 • Fastest growing Linux-based operating system.
 • Over 10,000,000 users.
Canonical and the Cloud




       Transition             General
   • Management.           • Suitability.
   • Trust.   ...
Canonical and the Cloud




                          Electricity
Canonical and the Cloud




                          Electricity




                                        BOOM!
Canonical and the Cloud




                          Standard Output




                                            BOOM!
Canonical and the Cloud




                           Application


                            Platform




            ...
Canonical and the Cloud




                           Application


                            Platform




            ...
Canonical and the Cloud



                            Data
              You
                          Application
Canonical and the Cloud



                            Data


                          Application




                  ...
Canonical and the Cloud



                            Data


                          Application




                  ...
Canonical and the Cloud



                              Data


                            Application




              ...
Canonical and the Cloud



                               Data


                             Application




            ...
Canonical and the Cloud



                               Data


                             Application




            ...
Canonical and the Cloud



                              Data


                            Application




              ...
Canonical and the Cloud




         Paul Baran
Canonical and the Cloud




    IPX / SPX
   Banyan Vines
    AppleTalk
      SNA
    DECNET
Canonical and the Cloud




    IPX / SPX
   Banyan Vines
    AppleTalk             TCP/IP
      SNA
     Decnet
Canonical and the Cloud




    IPX / SPX
   Banyan Vines
    AppleTalk             TCP/IP
      SNA
     Decnet
         ...
Canonical and the Cloud




    IPX / SPX
   Banyan Vines                       Bind
    AppleTalk             TCP/IP    S...
Canonical and the Cloud




                           IPX / SPX
                          Banyan Vines
       Innovation ...
Canonical and the Cloud




         Harvey Hubbell
          (1857-1927)
Canonical and the Cloud




                           Application


                            Platform




            ...
Canonical and the Cloud




                          Application


                           Platform




              ...
Canonical and the Cloud




            Ubuntu Server Edition
              on Amazon EC2.

       http://www.ubuntu.com/e...
Canonical and the Cloud




                9.04 (April)
          Ubuntu Enterprise Cloud

      http://www.ubuntu.com/cl...
Canonical and the Cloud
Canonical and the Cloud




 Tracks Amazon EC2 API      Private cloud
                           Eucalyptus          VM

 ...
Canonical and the Cloud




 Tracks Amazon EC2 API      Private cloud
                           Eucalyptus          VM

 ...
Canonical and the Cloud




 Tracks Amazon EC2 API      Private cloud
                           Eucalyptus          VM

 ...
Canonical and the Cloud




 Tracks Amazon EC2 API        Private cloud
                             Eucalyptus          V...
Canonical and the Cloud




                            Hypervisor


                            Bare Metal



           ...
Canonical and the Cloud




               Hypervisor     Hypervisor


               Bare Metal     Bare Metal



       ...
Canonical and the Cloud




               Hypervisor
                              Easy        Hypervisor
               ...
Canonical and the Cloud




                                   Common
•   Economies of scale. (volume)                    ...
Canonical and the Cloud




          Public cloud              Private cloud
            Ubuntu MI                     Ub...
Canonical and the Cloud



                          Standard
                           Ouptut
Canonical and the Cloud




                  Ecosystem
Canonical and the Cloud




                          Hypervisor


                          Bare Metal
Canonical and the Cloud




                          Hypervisor


                          Bare Metal



      Hyperviso...
Canonical and the Cloud




      Hypervisor


      Bare Metal



                          Hypervisor


                ...
Canonical and the Cloud




      Hypervisor


      Bare Metal          Price

                                  Hypervis...
Canonical and the Cloud




      Hypervisor
                          Quality of
      Bare Metal
                       ...
Canonical and the Cloud


                Common




                             Feature
                         Differe...
Canonical and the Cloud


                Common


                               Price vs QoS
     Ubiquity

            ...
Canonical and the Cloud




               Competitive
                 Market
Recap
Recap



   Commoditisation




        Innovation   Bespoke   Products   Services
Recap




                          http://www.strassmann.com/




        Paul Strassmann
Recap



                                    Application
                                     Platform


                 ...
Recap


                   Common


                                  “as a Service”
                                     ...
Recap




                          Utility
                        Computing

        John McCarthy
Recap




 “Cloud computing” is a consequence of
 economic and technological conditions that
 have combined to cause a dis...
Recap




 • Economies of scale. (volume)
 • Pay per use. (utility)
 • Speed to market. (componentisation)
 • Focus on cor...
Recap




                                   Common
                                                    Market
•   Economi...
Recap




        Transition            General
   • Management.           • Suitability.
   • Trust.                • Pri...
Recap




        Standard Output
Recap




   IPX / SPX
  Banyan Vines               Bind
   AppleTalk     TCP/IP    SendMail
     SNA                    A...
Recap




          Hypervisor
                       Standard     Hypervisor
                        Output
          Bar...
Recap




                 9.04
        Ubuntu Enterprise Cloud
            (Eucalyptus)
Recap




        Competitive
          Market
Recap




                     Hypervisor


                     Bare Metal



        Hypervisor


        Bare Metal
Is
Cloud Computing
   a gamble?
Yes
Is cloud computing a gamble?




                                   Common
                                               ...
Is cloud computing a gamble?




             what, whom, when?
Is cloud computing a gamble?




       Transition                 General
   • Management.               • Suitability.
 ...
Is cloud computing a gamble?


                Common
     Ubiquity

                Novel




                         Lo...
Is cloud computing a gamble?




       Transition                 General
   • Management.               • Suitability.
 ...
Is cloud computing a gamble?




                        Standard Output
Is cloud computing a gamble?
Common




               Market


                            Gap            Vs
            ...
Is cloud computing a gamble?




       Transition                 General
   • Management.               • Suitability.
 ...
Is cloud computing a gamble?




                       Infrastructure
                          as a Service
            ...
Is cloud computing a gamble?




                                                         Joe
              Bare Metal    ...
Is cloud computing a gamble?




                           Hypervisor Technology                Joe
              Bare Me...
Is cloud computing a gamble?




                           Hypervisor Technology                Joe
              Bare Me...
Is cloud computing a gamble?




  Tom            Storage




                           Hypervisor Technology

          ...
Is cloud computing a gamble?




                 Storage




    Joe                    Hypervisor Technology

          ...
Is cloud computing a gamble?




                 Storage                     PaaS               Dick

                   ...
Is cloud computing a gamble?




                 Storage             Development Platform       Dick

                   ...
Is cloud computing a gamble?




                 Storage             Development Platform




                           ...
Is cloud computing a gamble?




Harry        Mapping API

                 Storage             Development Platform




 ...
Is cloud computing a gamble?




             Mapping API


  Tom            Storage             Development Platform




...
Is cloud computing a gamble?




             Mapping API                     SaaS                Alice
                 S...
Is cloud computing a gamble?




             Mapping API             Transport Routing          Alice
                 St...
Is cloud computing a gamble?




Harry        Mapping API             Transport Routing

                 Storage         ...
Is cloud computing a gamble?




             Mapping API             Transport Routing


  Tom            Storage        ...
Is cloud computing a gamble?




             Mapping API             Transport Routing

                 Storage         ...
Is cloud computing a gamble?




                                                       Bob
             Mapping API      ...
Is cloud computing a gamble?




             Mapping API             Transport Routing          Alice
                 St...
Is cloud computing a gamble?




             Mapping API             Transport Routing

                 Storage         ...
Is cloud computing a gamble?




             Mapping API             Transport Routing

                 Storage         ...
Is cloud computing a gamble?




             Mapping API             Transport Routing

                 Storage         ...
Is cloud computing a gamble?




                                                                                     fo r...
Is cloud computing a gamble?




                 Bob           Alice
Is cloud computing a gamble?




                 Bob           Alice



               Tom, Dick, Harry or Joe
Is cloud computing a gamble?




               House           House   House   Joe
Is cloud computing a gamble?




  Tom                          Security

               House           House      House
Is cloud computing a gamble?




  Dick
                               Security

               House           House     ...
Benefits & Risks of Cloud Computing




                                     http://www.flickr.com/photos/rednuht/479370088
Transparency
Thank you
simon.wardley@canonical.com
whoops ...
the outtakes ...
i.e. more slides ...
http://flickr.com/photos/jonnygoldstein/
A. The Good, Bad & Ugly
B. Part I - Why I.T. is complex
C. Part II - The Paradox
D. Part III - More or less
E. Things to W...
Good, Bad & Ugly
http://www.flickr.com/photos/radioflyer007/
The Good



                                 Application
                                  Platform


                    ...
http://flickr.com/photos/jonnygoldstein/
The Bad



                                  Application
                                   Platform


                   ...
The Bad


                Common




                               Widespread
     Ubiquity




                         ...
The Bad




                          As IT becomes ubiquitous
                           it has no strategic value




  ...
The Bad




                                        Creative
                                       Destruction

 Joseph A...
The Ugly




                             Utility
                           Computing

           John McCarthy
The Ugly




           Software   Software as a Service (SaaS)


       Framework      Framework as a Service (FaaS)




...
The Ugly




                          “this is going to
                          lead to a whole
                       ...
The Ugly




       2007 - 2008
The Ugly




        Software           OaaS     XaaS
       Application
                        DaaS  DBaaS
       Framew...
The Ugly




       Application     Application as a Service (SaaS)


           Platform    Platform as a Service (PaaS)
...
Terminology.
A. The Good, Bad & Ugly
B. Part I - Why I.T. is complex
C. Part II - The Paradox
D. Part III - More or less
E. Things to W...
Part I
Why I.T. is
complex
Complexity


                Common
     Ubiquity




                          Innovation
                           of C...
Complexity


                Common




                                           Uncertain
     Ubiquity

              ...
Complexity


                Common




                                           Uncertain
     Ubiquity




           ...
Complexity


                Common




                                           Uncertain
     Ubiquity




           ...
Complexity


                Common




                                           Uncertain
     Ubiquity




           ...
Complexity


                Common
     Ubiquity




                                           Dynamic
                N...
Complexity


                Common
     Ubiquity




                            Agile
                          XP / Scr...
Complexity


                Common


                                           Utility-like
                            ...
Complexity


                Common


                                       “Cloud Providers”
                           ...
Complexity


                Common


                               Defined
     Ubiquity

                Novel




     ...
Complexity


                Common


                               Defined

                         No Deviation
     Ub...
Complexity


                Common


                               Defined

                         No Deviation
       ...
Complexity


                Common


                               Defined

                         No Deviation
       ...
Complexity


                Common




                           Defined
     Ubiquity

                Novel




       ...
Complexity


                Common




                                           Prince 2,
                             ...
Complexity


                Common




                                                   Prince 2,
                     ...
Complexity


                Common




                                                 CRM
     Ubiquity




           ...
Complexity


                Common




                                           Six Sigma
     Ubiquity

              ...
Complexity


                Common




                                           COMMODITY
     Ubiquity

              ...
Complexity


                Common
     Ubiquity




                         INNOVATION
                Novel




      ...
Complexity


                Common




                                 Different
     Ubiquity




                     ...
A. The Good, Bad & Ugly
B. Part I - Why I.T. is complex
C. Part II - The Paradox
D. Part III - More or less
E. Things to W...
Part II
The Paradox
Complexity ... Part II


                 Common




                                                    Prince 2,
       ...
Complexity ... Part II


                 Common




                                                   Six Sigma
      Ub...
Complexity ... Part II


                 Common

                                                  Expense           Payr...
Complexity ... Part II


                 Common



                                                  Market



          ...
Complexity ... Part II




                                   The need to constantly
                                   ev...
Complexity ... Part II




                                       The fundamental impulse that sets
                      ...
http://www.sandowplus.co.uk/
Complexity ... Part II




                Innovation Paradox
         Survival today requires ‘coherence,
        coordin...
Complexity ... Part II


                 Common




                                                   Order
      Ubiqui...
http://www.flickr.com/photos/privatenobby
Complexity ... Part II


                 Common




                                            Six Sigma
      Ubiquity
...
Complexity ... Part II


                 Common
      Ubiquity

                 Novel




                          Low ...
Complexity ... Part II


                 Common
      Ubiquity




                                20% Rule
             ...
Complexity ... Part II


                 Common




                                           Rigorous defined
          ...
A. The Good, Bad & Ugly
B. Part I - Why I.T. is complex
C. Part II - The Paradox
D. Part III - More or less
E. Things to W...
Things to watch ...
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E. Things to W...
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Is the cloud a gamble
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Is the cloud a gamble

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Simon Wardley examines of the benefits & risks of cloud computing and how this industry is shaping up.

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Transcript of "Is the cloud a gamble"

  1. 1. Is Cloud Computing a gamble?
  2. 2. Simon Wardley
  3. 3. DANGER! Will Robinson DANGER!
  4. 4. Sccott Beale/Laughing Squid : http://www.flickr.com/photos/laughingsquid/
  5. 5. Pain
  6. 6. Pain No. Slides
  7. 7. Pain 25 slides Severe risk of harm OK No. Slides
  8. 8. Pain 306 slides Severe risk of harm OK No. Slides
  9. 9. http://flickr.com/photos/jonnygoldstein/
  10. 10. Cloud Computing
  11. 11. What is Cloud Computing?
  12. 12. http://www.flickr.com/photos/fimbrethil/
  13. 13. It’s like computers on the internet, innit.
  14. 14. http://www.flickr.com/photos/radioflyer007/
  15. 15. http://www.flickr.com/photos/radioflyer007/ http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/5/51/Metropolis.jpg
  16. 16. Disruptive shift of the computing stack to online services.
  17. 17. It’s like computers on the internet, innit.
  18. 18. http://www.flickr.com/photos/radioflyer007/
  19. 19. Image from Oliver Twist,
  20. 20. It’s like SaaS or software as a service, and infrastructure provision and PaaS, that’s platform as a Service and utility computing being provided in public clouds, which is different from private clouds which aren’t cloud computing, unless of course you’re talking about hybrid clouds which sort of are and it’s hype and lock-in and did I mention infrastructure?
  21. 21. 67 definitions
  22. 22. photos/videoplacebo/3481780379/
  23. 23. Pain 306 slides Severe risk of harm OK No. Slides
  24. 24. 1. On-demand self-service Internet infrastructure where you pay-as-you-go and use only what you need, all managed by a browser, application or API. Cloud computing is broken up into multiple segments including: Cloud Infrastructure, Cloud Platforms and Cloud Applications. (see "Cloud Pyramid")
  25. 25. 1. On-demand self-service Internet infrastructure where you pay-as-you-go and use only what you need, all managed by a browser, application or API. Cloud computing is broken up into multiple segments including: Cloud Infrastructure, Cloud Platforms and Cloud Applications. Cloud Pyramid (see "Cloud Pyramid")
  26. 26. + 8 definitions
  27. 27. 2. A new generation of computing that utilizes distant servers for data storage and management, allowing the device to use smaller and more efficient chips that consume less energy than standard computers.
  28. 28. 2. A new generation of computing that utilizes distant servers for data storage and management, allowing the device to use smaller and more efficient chips that consume less energy than standard computers.
  29. 29. 2. A new generation of computing that utilizes distant servers for data storage and management, allowing the device to use smaller and more efficient chips that consume less energy than standard computers.
  30. 30. 3. the ability to draw IT resources from a third party source.
  31. 31. No definition
  32. 32. http://www.flickr.com/photos/radioflyer007/
  33. 33. Our Cloud = Product
  34. 34. What is Industrial Revolution?
  35. 35. http://www.flickr.com/photos/fimbrethil/
  36. 36. It’s like mechanised horses, innit.
  37. 37. 43 definitions
  38. 38. 1. Broad socioeconomic and technological changes starting in the early 18th century.
  39. 39. 2. Rapid development of industry in the early 19th century.
  40. 40. No definition
  41. 41. Not a thing
  42. 42. Transition
  43. 43. Industrial Revolution is a period in the18th and 19th centuries when major changes in agriculture, manufacturing, mining, and transportation had a profound effect on socioeconomic and culture conditions
  44. 44. It’s like mechanised horses, innit.
  45. 45. It’s like computers on the internet, innit.
  46. 46. “Cloud computing” is a consequence of economic and technological conditions that have combined to cause a disruptive change in I.T. from a product towards a service based economy.
  47. 47. Why I.T. is changing.
  48. 48. Why I.T. is changing. Benefits & Risks.
  49. 49. Why I.T. is changing. Benefits & Risks. Canonical and the Cloud.
  50. 50. Is Cloud Computing a gamble?
  51. 51. Why I.T. is changing.
  52. 52. Why I.T. is changing http://www.strassmann.com/ Paul Strassmann
  53. 53. Why I.T. is changing Not all IT is the same.
  54. 54. Why I.T. is changing Not all IT has value.
  55. 55. Why I.T. is changing imperfect to perfect competition
  56. 56. Why I.T. is changing Yesterday’s hot stuff
  57. 57. Why I.T. is changing Yesterday’s Today’s hot stuff boredom
  58. 58. http://www.flickr.com/photos/privatenobby
  59. 59. http://www.flickr.com/photos/billege
  60. 60. http://www.flickr.com/photos/billege/
  61. 61. Why I.T. is changing Innovation
  62. 62. Why I.T. is changing Innovation Bespoke
  63. 63. Why I.T. is changing Innovation Bespoke Products
  64. 64. Why I.T. is changing Innovation Bespoke Products Services
  65. 65. Why I.T. is changing Commoditisation Innovation Bespoke Products Services
  66. 66. Why I.T. is changing Commoditisation Innovation Bespoke Products Services Competitive Advantage
  67. 67. Why I.T. is changing Commoditisation Innovation Bespoke Products Services Cost of doing business
  68. 68. Why I.T. is changing 1832 Innovation
  69. 69. Why I.T. is changing 1832 Innovation Bespoke
  70. 70. Why I.T. is changing 1837 1832 Innovation Bespoke Products
  71. 71. Image from Oliver Twist
  72. 72. Image from Chicago Historical Society
  73. 73. Sccott Beale/Laughing Squid : http://www.flickr.com/photos/laughingsquid/
  74. 74. http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/5/51/Metropolis.jpg
  75. 75. Why I.T. is changing 1890 1837 1832 Utility Innovation Bespoke Products Grids (Services)
  76. 76. Why I.T. is changing Harvey Hubbell (1857-1927)
  77. 77. Why I.T. is changing 1930 1837 1832 National Innovation Bespoke Products Grid (Services)
  78. 78. Why I.T. is changing As IT becomes ubiquitous it has no strategic value Nicholas Carr
  79. 79. Why I.T. is changing Yesterday’s Today’s hot stuff boredom
  80. 80. Why I.T. is changing Not all IT is the same.
  81. 81. Why I.T. is changing As IT [activities] becomes ubiquitous it has no strategic value Nicholas Carr
  82. 82. Why I.T. is changing s v ice Ser Y u cts d P ro o ke sp Be t ion va no In X
  83. 83. Why I.T. is changing Ubiquity
  84. 84. Why I.T. is changing Ubiquity Novel
  85. 85. Why I.T. is changing Common Ubiquity Novel
  86. 86. Why I.T. is changing Common Ubiquity Novel Certainty
  87. 87. Why I.T. is changing Common Ubiquity Novel Low Certainty
  88. 88. Why I.T. is changing Common Ubiquity Novel Low Certainty High
  89. 89. Why I.T. is changing Common TV’s & Phones Ubiquity Novel Low High Certainty
  90. 90. Why I.T. is changing Common Ubiquity Novel Low High Certainty
  91. 91. Why I.T. is changing Common Ubiquity Innovation Novel Low High Certainty
  92. 92. Why I.T. is changing Common Services Ubiquity Products Bespoke Innovation Novel Low High Certainty
  93. 93. Why I.T. is changing Common Ubiquity Innovation of CRM. Novel Low High Certainty
  94. 94. Why I.T. is changing Common Ubiquity Mid '80s DB marketing. Novel Low High Certainty
  95. 95. Why I.T. is changing Common CRM products 90’s Ubiquity Novel Low High Certainty
  96. 96. Why I.T. is changing Common “Cloud Providers” like Salesforce Ubiquity Novel Low High Certainty
  97. 97. Why I.T. is changing Common Expense Payroll Procedure Accounts Payable Company Web site Ubiquity Wiki Social Network Analysis Novel Low High Certainty
  98. 98. Why I.T. is changing Common Expense Payroll Procedure Accounts Payable Company Web site Ubiquity Wiki Social Network Analysis Novel Low High Certainty
  99. 99. Why I.T. is changing Common Ubiquity Novel Low High Certainty
  100. 100. Why I.T. is changing Common Ubiquity Products Novel Low High Certainty
  101. 101. Why I.T. is changing Common Widespread Ubiquity Novel Low High Certainty
  102. 102. Why I.T. is changing Common Widespread Ubiquity Feature Complete Novel Low High Certainty
  103. 103. Why I.T. is changing Common Widespread Ubiquity Feature Complete Novel Low High Certainty
  104. 104. Why I.T. is changing Common “as a Service” Volume Operations Services Ubiquity Novel Low High Certainty
  105. 105. Why I.T. is changing Utility Computing John McCarthy
  106. 106. Why I.T. is changing Innovation Bespoke Products Services highly disruptive
  107. 107. Why I.T. is changing The fundamental impulse that sets and keeps the capitalist engine in motion comes from the new consumers, goods, the new methods of production or transportation, the new markets, the new forms of industrial organization that capitalist enterprise creates. Joseph A. Schumpeter (1883 - 1950)!
  108. 108. Why I.T. is changing The fundamental impulse that sets and keeps the capitalist engine in motion comes from the new consumers, goods, the new methods of production or transportation, the new markets, the new forms of industrial organization that capitalist enterprise creates. Joseph A. Schumpeter (1883 - 1950)!
  109. 109. Why I.T. is changing Creative Destruction Joseph A. Schumpeter (1883 - 1950)!
  110. 110. Why I.T. is changing Commoditisation Innovation Bespoke Products Services
  111. 111. Why I.T. is changing Innovation Bespoke Products Services
  112. 112. Why I.T. is changing Power Innovation Bespoke Products Hardware Internet
  113. 113. Why I.T. is changing Power Google Bespoke Products Hardware Internet
  114. 114. 67 definitions of “cloud computing”
  115. 115. Why I.T. is changing Commoditisation Innovation Services Enables Joseph A. Schumpeter (1883 - 1950)!
  116. 116. Why I.T. is changing Commoditisation Innovation Services Accelerates Herbert A. Simon (1916 - 2001)
  117. 117. Why I.T. is changing Rate of evolution of a system Innovation Services
  118. 118. Why I.T. is changing Rate of evolution of a system directly related Innovation Services to organisation of its subsystems
  119. 119. Why I.T. is changing Componentisation Herbert A. Simon (1916 - 2001)
  120. 120. Why I.T. is changing Operating System Hypervisor CPU Memory I/O
  121. 121. Why I.T. is changing Database Framework Messaging Operating System Hypervisor CPU Memory I/O
  122. 122. Why I.T. is changing Application Service Database Framework Messaging Operating System Hypervisor CPU Memory I/O
  123. 123. Why I.T. is changing Application Service Database Framework Messaging Operating System Hypervisor CPU Memory I/O
  124. 124. Why I.T. is changing Application Service Database Framework Messaging Operating System Hypervisor CPU Memory I/O
  125. 125. Why I.T. is changing Application Service Database Framework Messaging Operating System Hypervisor CPU Memory I/O
  126. 126. Why I.T. is changing Application Service Database Framework Messaging x 100 Operating System Hypervisor CPU Memory I/O
  127. 127. Why I.T. is changing Application Service Database Platform Messaging Operating System Hypervisor CPU Memory I/O
  128. 128. Why I.T. is changing Application Service ase Platform Messaging Operating System Hypervisor Infrastructure Memory I/O
  129. 129. Why I.T. is changing Application Service ase Platform Messaging Platform Operating System Virtualisation Infrastructure Memory I/O
  130. 130. Why I.T. is changing Application Service Application ase Platform Messaging Platform Operating System Virtualisation Infrastructure Memory I/O
  131. 131. Why I.T. is changing Application Platform Infrastructure Innovation Bespoke Products Services
  132. 132. Why I.T. is changing Application Platform Infrastructure Innovation Bespoke Products Services (Componentisation)
  133. 133. Why I.T. is changing Common Widespread Ubiquity Feature Complete Novel Low High Certainty
  134. 134. Why I.T. is changing Common Volume Operations Services Ubiquity Novel Low High Certainty
  135. 135. Why I.T. is changing Infrastructure as a Service Amazon EC2
  136. 136. Why I.T. is changing Google App Platform as a Service Engine Infrastructure as a Service Amazon EC2
  137. 137. Why I.T. is changing Software as a Service SalesForce Google App Platform as a Service Engine Infrastructure as a Service Amazon EC2
  138. 138. Why I.T. is changing As IT [activities] becomes ubiquitous it has no strategic value Nicholas Carr
  139. 139. Why I.T. is changing Commoditisation Innovation Bespoke Products Services Cost of doing business
  140. 140. Why I.T. is changing Application Platform Infrastructure Innovation Bespoke Products Services Disruptive Shift
  141. 141. Why I.T. is changing Application Platform Infrastructure Innovation Bespoke Products Services (Componentisation)
  142. 142. Why I.T. is changing “Cloud computing” is a consequence of economic and technological conditions that have combined to cause a disruptive change in I.T. towards a service based economy.
  143. 143. Why I.T. is changing Creative Destruction Joseph A. Schumpeter (1883 - 1950)!
  144. 144. Why I.T. is changing Utility Computing John McCarthy
  145. 145. Recap
  146. 146. Recap Commoditisation Innovation Bespoke Products Services
  147. 147. Recap Common Expense Payroll Procedure Accounts Payable Company Web site Ubiquity Wiki Social Netwok Analysis Novel Low High Certainty
  148. 148. Recap Common Services Ubiquity Products Bespoke Innovation Novel Low High Certainty
  149. 149. Recap http://www.strassmann.com/ Paul Strassmann
  150. 150. Recap Componentisation Herbert A. Simon (1916 - 2001)
  151. 151. Recap Application Service Application ase Platform Messaging Platform Operating System Virtualisation Infrastructure Memory I/O
  152. 152. Recap Application Platform Infrastructure Innovation Bespoke Products Services Disruptive
  153. 153. Recap Common “As a Service” Services Ubiquity Novel Low High Certainty
  154. 154. Recap Software as a Service SalesForce Google App Platform as a Service Engine Infrastructure as a Service Amazon EC2
  155. 155. Recap Utility Computing John McCarthy
  156. 156. Transition
  157. 157. Recap “Cloud computing” is a consequence of economic and technological conditions that have combined to cause a disruptive change in I.T. towards a service based economy.
  158. 158. Cloud ! Product
  159. 159. Why I.T. is changing. Benefits & Risks.
  160. 160. Benefits & Risks of Cloud Computing • Economies of scale. (volume)
  161. 161. Benefits & Risks of Cloud Computing • Economies of scale. (volume) • Pay per use. (utility)
  162. 162. Benefits & Risks of Cloud Computing • Economies of scale. (volume) • Pay per use. (utility) • Speed to market. (componentisation)
  163. 163. Benefits & Risks of Cloud Computing • Economies of scale. (volume) • Pay per use. (utility) • Speed to market. (componentisation) • Focus on core. (outsourcing)
  164. 164. Benefits & Risks of Cloud Computing Common Ubiquity You Novel Low High Certainty
  165. 165. Benefits & Risks of Cloud Computing Common Market Ubiquity You Novel Low High Certainty
  166. 166. Benefits & Risks of Cloud Computing Common Market Competitive Ubiquity Gap You Novel Low High Certainty
  167. 167. Benefits & Risks of Cloud Computing Common Market Ubiquity You Novel Low High Certainty
  168. 168. http://www.flickr.com/photos/privatenobby
  169. 169. http://www.flickr.com/photos/billege
  170. 170. http://www.flickr.com/photos/giddygoose/
  171. 171. Benefits & Risks of Cloud Computing The need to constantly evolve in order to stand still relative to an eco- system. Professor Leigh M.Van Valen
  172. 172. Benefits & Risks of Cloud Computing Red Queen Hypothesis Professor Leigh M.Van Valen
  173. 173. Benefits & Risks of Cloud Computing Common Market • Economies of scale. (volume) • Pay per use. (utility) • Speed to market. Competitive (componentisation) Gap • Focus on core. (outsourcing) You Novel Low High
  174. 174. Benefits & Risks of Cloud Computing Application Platform Infrastructure Innovation Bespoke Products Services Disruptive Shift
  175. 175. Benefits & Risks of Cloud Computing Transition • Management.
  176. 176. Benefits & Risks of Cloud Computing Transition • Management. • Trust.
  177. 177. Benefits & Risks of Cloud Computing Transition • Management. • Trust. • Transparency.
  178. 178. Benefits & Risks of Cloud Computing Transition • Management. • Trust. • Transparency. • Security of supply
  179. 179. Benefits & Risks of Cloud Computing Common Services Ubiquity Novel Low High Certainty
  180. 180. Benefits & Risks of Cloud Computing Transition General • Management. • Suitability. • Trust. • Transparency. • Security of supply.
  181. 181. Benefits & Risks of Cloud Computing Transition General • Management. • Suitability. • Trust. • Price competition. • Transparency. • Security of supply.
  182. 182. Benefits & Risks of Cloud Computing Transition General • Management. • Suitability. • Trust. • Price competition. • Transparency. • Lock-in. • Security of supply.
  183. 183. Benefits & Risks of Cloud Computing Transition General • Management. • Suitability. • Trust. • Price competition. • Transparency. • Lock-in. • Security of supply. • Second sourcing.
  184. 184. Benefits & Risks of Cloud Computing Adoption Barriers
  185. 185. Benefits & Risks of Cloud Computing Common Market Gap Vs You Novel Low High
  186. 186. Why I.T. is changing. Benefits & Risks. Canonical and the Cloud.
  187. 187. Canonical and the Cloud
  188. 188. Canonical and the Cloud • Fastest growing Linux-based operating system.
  189. 189. Canonical and the Cloud • Fastest growing Linux-based operating system. • Over 10,000,000 users.
  190. 190. Canonical and the Cloud Transition General • Management. • Suitability. • Trust. • Price competition. • Transparency. • Lock-in. • Security of supply. • Second sourcing.
  191. 191. Canonical and the Cloud Electricity
  192. 192. Canonical and the Cloud Electricity BOOM!
  193. 193. Canonical and the Cloud Standard Output BOOM!
  194. 194. Canonical and the Cloud Application Platform Infrastructure
  195. 195. Canonical and the Cloud Application Platform Infrastructure
  196. 196. Canonical and the Cloud Data You Application
  197. 197. Canonical and the Cloud Data Application Platform Operating Provider System (i.e. CogHead) Hypervisor Bare Metal
  198. 198. Canonical and the Cloud Data Application Platform Operating System BOOM! Hypervisor Bare Metal
  199. 199. Canonical and the Cloud Data Application Platform Platform Operating Operating System System BOOM! Hypervisor Hypervisor Bare Metal Bare Metal
  200. 200. Canonical and the Cloud Data Application Platform Multiple Platform Providers Operating Operating System System Hypervisor Hypervisor Bare Metal Bare Metal
  201. 201. Canonical and the Cloud Data Application Platform Easy Platform Switching Operating Operating System System Hypervisor Hypervisor Bare Metal Bare Metal
  202. 202. Canonical and the Cloud Data Application Platform Standard Platform Output Operating Operating System System Hypervisor Hypervisor Bare Metal Bare Metal
  203. 203. Canonical and the Cloud Paul Baran
  204. 204. Canonical and the Cloud IPX / SPX Banyan Vines AppleTalk SNA DECNET
  205. 205. Canonical and the Cloud IPX / SPX Banyan Vines AppleTalk TCP/IP SNA Decnet
  206. 206. Canonical and the Cloud IPX / SPX Banyan Vines AppleTalk TCP/IP SNA Decnet Open
  207. 207. Canonical and the Cloud IPX / SPX Banyan Vines Bind AppleTalk TCP/IP SendMail SNA Apache Decnet Open Open Source
  208. 208. Canonical and the Cloud IPX / SPX Banyan Vines Innovation AppleTalk TCP/IP SNA Decnet (Componentisation)
  209. 209. Canonical and the Cloud Harvey Hubbell (1857-1927)
  210. 210. Canonical and the Cloud Application Platform Infrastructure
  211. 211. Canonical and the Cloud Application Platform Amazon EC2
  212. 212. Canonical and the Cloud Ubuntu Server Edition on Amazon EC2. http://www.ubuntu.com/ec2
  213. 213. Canonical and the Cloud 9.04 (April) Ubuntu Enterprise Cloud http://www.ubuntu.com/cloud
  214. 214. Canonical and the Cloud
  215. 215. Canonical and the Cloud Tracks Amazon EC2 API Private cloud Eucalyptus VM Web UI KVM Hyp. Cloud Node Controller Controller Ubuntu Server Edition Physical Machines (bare bones)
  216. 216. Canonical and the Cloud Tracks Amazon EC2 API Private cloud Eucalyptus VM Uses KVM hypervisor Web UI KVM Hyp. Cloud Node Controller Controller Ubuntu Server Edition Physical Machines (bare bones)
  217. 217. Canonical and the Cloud Tracks Amazon EC2 API Private cloud Eucalyptus VM Uses KVM hypervisor Web UI KVM Hyp. Cloud Node Controller Controller EBS & S3 Equivalent Ubuntu Server Edition Physical Machines (bare bones)
  218. 218. Canonical and the Cloud Tracks Amazon EC2 API Private cloud Eucalyptus VM Uses KVM hypervisor Web UI KVM Hyp. Cloud Node Controller Controller EBS & S3 Equivalent Ubuntu Server Edition Physical Machines (bare bones) Completely open sourced.
  219. 219. Canonical and the Cloud Hypervisor Bare Metal Private Cloud
  220. 220. Canonical and the Cloud Hypervisor Hypervisor Bare Metal Bare Metal Amazon EC2 Private Cloud
  221. 221. Canonical and the Cloud Hypervisor Easy Hypervisor Switching Bare Metal Bare Metal Amazon EC2 Private Cloud
  222. 222. Canonical and the Cloud Common • Economies of scale. (volume) Market • Pay per use. (utility) • Speed to market. (componentisation) Competitive Gap • Focus on core. (outsourcing) • Greener (efficient supply You & demand) Novel Low High
  223. 223. Canonical and the Cloud Public cloud Private cloud Ubuntu MI Ubuntu MI EC2 UEC Portability and burst scalability
  224. 224. Canonical and the Cloud Standard Ouptut
  225. 225. Canonical and the Cloud Ecosystem
  226. 226. Canonical and the Cloud Hypervisor Bare Metal
  227. 227. Canonical and the Cloud Hypervisor Bare Metal Hypervisor Bare Metal
  228. 228. Canonical and the Cloud Hypervisor Bare Metal Hypervisor Bare Metal
  229. 229. Canonical and the Cloud Hypervisor Bare Metal Price Hypervisor Bare Metal
  230. 230. Canonical and the Cloud Hypervisor Quality of Bare Metal Service Hypervisor Bare Metal
  231. 231. Canonical and the Cloud Common Feature Differentiation Ubiquity Novel Low High Certainty
  232. 232. Canonical and the Cloud Common Price vs QoS Ubiquity Novel Low High Certainty
  233. 233. Canonical and the Cloud Competitive Market
  234. 234. Recap
  235. 235. Recap Commoditisation Innovation Bespoke Products Services
  236. 236. Recap http://www.strassmann.com/ Paul Strassmann
  237. 237. Recap Application Platform Infrastructure Innovation Bespoke Products Services Disruptive
  238. 238. Recap Common “as a Service” Industry Ubiquity Novel Low High Certainty
  239. 239. Recap Utility Computing John McCarthy
  240. 240. Recap “Cloud computing” is a consequence of economic and technological conditions that have combined to cause a disruptive change in I.T. towards a service based economy.
  241. 241. Recap • Economies of scale. (volume) • Pay per use. (utility) • Speed to market. (componentisation) • Focus on core. (outsourcing)
  242. 242. Recap Common Market • Economies of scale. (volume) • Pay per use. (utility) • Speed to market. Competitive (componentisation) Gap • Focus on core. (outsourcing) You Novel Low High
  243. 243. Recap Transition General • Management. • Suitability. • Trust. • Price competition. • Transparency. • Lock-in. • Security of supply. • Second sourcing.
  244. 244. Recap Standard Output
  245. 245. Recap IPX / SPX Banyan Vines Bind AppleTalk TCP/IP SendMail SNA Apache Decnet Open Open Source
  246. 246. Recap Hypervisor Standard Hypervisor Output Bare Metal Bare Metal Amazon EC2 Private Cloud
  247. 247. Recap 9.04 Ubuntu Enterprise Cloud (Eucalyptus)
  248. 248. Recap Competitive Market
  249. 249. Recap Hypervisor Bare Metal Hypervisor Bare Metal
  250. 250. Is Cloud Computing a gamble?
  251. 251. Yes
  252. 252. Is cloud computing a gamble? Common Market • Economies of scale. (volume) • Pay per use. (utility) • Speed to market. Competitive (componentisation) Gap • Focus on core. (outsourcing) You Novel Low High
  253. 253. Is cloud computing a gamble? what, whom, when?
  254. 254. Is cloud computing a gamble? Transition General • Management. • Suitability. • Trust. • Price competition. • Transparency. • Lock-in. • Security of supply. • Second sourcing.
  255. 255. Is cloud computing a gamble? Common Ubiquity Novel Low High Certainty
  256. 256. Is cloud computing a gamble? Transition General • Management. • Suitability. • Trust. • Price competition. • Transparency. • Lock-in. • Security of supply. • Second sourcing.
  257. 257. Is cloud computing a gamble? Standard Output
  258. 258. Is cloud computing a gamble? Common Market Gap Vs You Novel Low High
  259. 259. Is cloud computing a gamble? Transition General • Management. • Suitability. • Trust. • Price competition. • Transparency. • Lock-in. • Security of supply. • Second sourcing.
  260. 260. Is cloud computing a gamble? Infrastructure as a Service Joe
  261. 261. Is cloud computing a gamble? Joe Bare Metal Bare Metal Bare Metal
  262. 262. Is cloud computing a gamble? Hypervisor Technology Joe Bare Metal Bare Metal Bare Metal
  263. 263. Is cloud computing a gamble? Hypervisor Technology Joe Bare Metal Bare Metal Bare Metal
  264. 264. Is cloud computing a gamble? Tom Storage Hypervisor Technology Bare Metal Bare Metal Bare Metal
  265. 265. Is cloud computing a gamble? Storage Joe Hypervisor Technology Bare Metal Bare Metal Bare Metal
  266. 266. Is cloud computing a gamble? Storage PaaS Dick Hypervisor Technology Bare Metal Bare Metal Bare Metal
  267. 267. Is cloud computing a gamble? Storage Development Platform Dick Hypervisor Technology Bare Metal Bare Metal Bare Metal
  268. 268. Is cloud computing a gamble? Storage Development Platform Hypervisor Technology Joe Bare Metal Bare Metal Bare Metal
  269. 269. Is cloud computing a gamble? Harry Mapping API Storage Development Platform Hypervisor Technology Bare Metal Bare Metal Bare Metal
  270. 270. Is cloud computing a gamble? Mapping API Tom Storage Development Platform Hypervisor Technology Bare Metal Bare Metal Bare Metal
  271. 271. Is cloud computing a gamble? Mapping API SaaS Alice Storage Development Platform Hypervisor Technology Bare Metal Bare Metal Bare Metal
  272. 272. Is cloud computing a gamble? Mapping API Transport Routing Alice Storage Development Platform Hypervisor Technology Bare Metal Bare Metal Bare Metal
  273. 273. Is cloud computing a gamble? Harry Mapping API Transport Routing Storage Development Platform Hypervisor Technology Bare Metal Bare Metal Bare Metal
  274. 274. Is cloud computing a gamble? Mapping API Transport Routing Tom Storage Development Platform Hypervisor Technology Bare Metal Bare Metal Bare Metal
  275. 275. Is cloud computing a gamble? Mapping API Transport Routing Storage Development Platform Dick Hypervisor Technology Bare Metal Bare Metal Bare Metal
  276. 276. Is cloud computing a gamble? Bob Mapping API Transport Routing Storage Development Platform Hypervisor Technology Bare Metal Bare Metal Bare Metal
  277. 277. Is cloud computing a gamble? Mapping API Transport Routing Alice Storage Development Platform Hypervisor Technology Bare Metal Bare Metal Bare Metal
  278. 278. Is cloud computing a gamble? Mapping API Transport Routing Storage Development Platform Hypervisor Technology Bare Metal Bare Metal Bare Metal
  279. 279. Is cloud computing a gamble? Mapping API Transport Routing Storage Development Platform Hypervisor Technology Joe Bare Metal Bare Metal Bare Metal
  280. 280. Is cloud computing a gamble? Mapping API Transport Routing Storage Development Platform Hypervisor Technology Joe
  281. 281. Is cloud computing a gamble? fo rm P lat Map e nt ping API o pm elg evn Hype rviso t outi RD Sto r Tec spor rag e hnolran To gy
  282. 282. Is cloud computing a gamble? Bob Alice
  283. 283. Is cloud computing a gamble? Bob Alice Tom, Dick, Harry or Joe
  284. 284. Is cloud computing a gamble? House House House Joe
  285. 285. Is cloud computing a gamble? Tom Security House House House
  286. 286. Is cloud computing a gamble? Dick Security House House House
  287. 287. Benefits & Risks of Cloud Computing http://www.flickr.com/photos/rednuht/479370088
  288. 288. Transparency
  289. 289. Thank you simon.wardley@canonical.com
  290. 290. whoops ...
  291. 291. the outtakes ...
  292. 292. i.e. more slides ...
  293. 293. http://flickr.com/photos/jonnygoldstein/
  294. 294. A. The Good, Bad & Ugly B. Part I - Why I.T. is complex C. Part II - The Paradox D. Part III - More or less E. Things to Watch F. A fast life G. Happy Clouds simon.wardley@canonical.com
  295. 295. Good, Bad & Ugly
  296. 296. http://www.flickr.com/photos/radioflyer007/
  297. 297. The Good Application Platform Infrastructure Innovation Bespoke Products Services (Componentisation)
  298. 298. http://flickr.com/photos/jonnygoldstein/
  299. 299. The Bad Application Platform Infrastructure Innovation Bespoke Products Services Disruptive Shift
  300. 300. The Bad Common Widespread Ubiquity Feature Complete Novel Low High Certainty
  301. 301. The Bad As IT becomes ubiquitous it has no strategic value Nicholas Carr
  302. 302. The Bad Creative Destruction Joseph A. Schumpeter (1883 - 1950)!
  303. 303. The Ugly Utility Computing John McCarthy
  304. 304. The Ugly Software Software as a Service (SaaS) Framework Framework as a Service (FaaS) Hardware as a Service (HaaS) Hardware 2007
  305. 305. The Ugly “this is going to lead to a whole lot of aaS.” Oscon 2007 Robert Lefkowitz
  306. 306. The Ugly 2007 - 2008
  307. 307. The Ugly Software OaaS XaaS Application DaaS DBaaS Framework SaaSu Platform DaaS DaaS SaaSy SaaSp PaaS SaaS HaaS FaaS Hardware WaaS Infrastructure IaaS FaaS 2008
  308. 308. The Ugly Application Application as a Service (SaaS) Platform Platform as a Service (PaaS) Infrastructure as a Service (IaaS) Infrastructure 2009
  309. 309. Terminology.
  310. 310. A. The Good, Bad & Ugly B. Part I - Why I.T. is complex C. Part II - The Paradox D. Part III - More or less E. Things to Watch F. A fast life G. Happy Clouds simon.wardley@canonical.com
  311. 311. Part I Why I.T. is complex
  312. 312. Complexity Common Ubiquity Innovation of CRM. Novel Low High Certainty
  313. 313. Complexity Common Uncertain Ubiquity Novel Low High Certainty
  314. 314. Complexity Common Uncertain Ubiquity Deviation Novel Low High Certainty
  315. 315. Complexity Common Uncertain Ubiquity Deviation Differential Novel Low High Certainty
  316. 316. Complexity Common Uncertain Ubiquity Deviation Differential Novel Worth Low High Certainty
  317. 317. Complexity Common Ubiquity Dynamic Novel Low High Certainty
  318. 318. Complexity Common Ubiquity Agile XP / Scrum Novel Low High Certainty
  319. 319. Complexity Common Utility-like provision of CRM Ubiquity Novel Low High Certainty
  320. 320. Complexity Common “Cloud Providers” like Salesforce Ubiquity Novel Low High Certainty
  321. 321. Complexity Common Defined Ubiquity Novel Low High Certainty
  322. 322. Complexity Common Defined No Deviation Ubiquity Novel Low High Certainty
  323. 323. Complexity Common Defined No Deviation CODB Ubiquity Novel Low High Certainty
  324. 324. Complexity Common Defined No Deviation CODB Ubiquity Cost Novel Low High Certainty
  325. 325. Complexity Common Defined Ubiquity Novel Low High Certainty
  326. 326. Complexity Common Prince 2, Six Sigma Ubiquity Novel Low High Certainty
  327. 327. Complexity Common Prince 2, Six Sigma Ubiquity Agile XP, Scrum Novel Low High Certainty
  328. 328. Complexity Common CRM Ubiquity CRM Novel Low High Certainty
  329. 329. Complexity Common Six Sigma Ubiquity Novel Low High Certainty
  330. 330. Complexity Common COMMODITY Ubiquity Novel Low High Certainty
  331. 331. Complexity Common Ubiquity INNOVATION Novel Low High Certainty
  332. 332. Complexity Common Different Ubiquity Methodologies Novel Low High Certainty
  333. 333. A. The Good, Bad & Ugly B. Part I - Why I.T. is complex C. Part II - The Paradox D. Part III - More or less E. Things to Watch F. A fast life G. Happy Clouds simon.wardley@canonical.com
  334. 334. Part II The Paradox
  335. 335. Complexity ... Part II Common Prince 2, Six Sigma Ubiquity Agile XP, Scrum Novel Low High Certainty
  336. 336. Complexity ... Part II Common Six Sigma Ubiquity INNOVATION Novel Low High Certainty
  337. 337. Complexity ... Part II Common Expense Payroll Procedure Accounts Payable Company Web site Ubiquity Wiki Social Network Analysis Novel Low High Certainty
  338. 338. Complexity ... Part II Common Market Competitive Ubiquity Gap You Novel Low High Certainty
  339. 339. Complexity ... Part II The need to constantly evolve in order to stand still relative to an eco- system. Professor Leigh M.Van Valen
  340. 340. Complexity ... Part II The fundamental impulse that sets and keeps the capitalist engine in motion comes from the new consumers, goods, the new methods of production or transportation, the new markets, the new forms of industrial organization that capitalist enterprise creates. Joseph A. Schumpeter (1883 - 1950)!
  341. 341. http://www.sandowplus.co.uk/
  342. 342. Complexity ... Part II Innovation Paradox Survival today requires ‘coherence, coordination and stability’ [order]. & Survival tomorrow requires the replacement of these virtues [disorder]. Salaman & Storey
  343. 343. Complexity ... Part II Common Order Ubiquity Disorder Novel Low High Certainty
  344. 344. http://www.flickr.com/photos/privatenobby
  345. 345. Complexity ... Part II Common Six Sigma Ubiquity Novel Low High Certainty
  346. 346. Complexity ... Part II Common Ubiquity Novel Low High Certainty
  347. 347. Complexity ... Part II Common Ubiquity 20% Rule Novel Low High Certainty
  348. 348. Complexity ... Part II Common Rigorous defined procedures Ubiquity 20% Rule Novel Low High Certainty
  349. 349. A. The Good, Bad & Ugly B. Part I - Why I.T. is complex C. Part II - The Paradox D. Part III - More or less E. Things to Watch F. A fast life G. Happy Clouds simon.wardley@canonical.com
  350. 350. Things to watch ...
  351. 351. Things to watch Application Platform Infrastructure
  352. 352. Things to watch Competitive Market
  353. 353. Things to watch Data Application Platform Standard Platform Output Operating Operating System System Hypervisor Hypervisor Bare Metal Bare Metal
  354. 354. Things to watch Platform
  355. 355. Things to watch Technology Platform Vendor
  356. 356. Things to watch Provider Technology Vendor
  357. 357. Things to watch Provider Consumer Technology Vendor
  358. 358. Things to watch Provider Consumer Technology Vendor ISV
  359. 359. Things to watch Provider Consumer Technology Vendor ISV
  360. 360. Things to watch Provider Consumer Technology Locked-in Vendor ISV
  361. 361. Things to watch Provider Consumer Open Standard ISV
  362. 362. Things to watch Provider Consumer EXTEND ISV
  363. 363. Things to watch Common Feature Differentiation Ubiquity Novel Low High Certainty
  364. 364. Things to watch Common Price vs QoS Ubiquity Novel Low High Certainty
  365. 365. Things to watch Open Platform Source Reference Model
  366. 366. A. The Good, Bad & Ugly B. Why Transparency Matters C. Part I - Why I.T. is complex D. Part II - The Paradox E. Part III - More or less F. Things to Watch G. A fast life H. Happy Clouds simon.wardley@canonical.com
  367. 367. Part III More Or Less ...
  368. 368. http://www.flickr.com/photos/radioflyer007/ http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/5/51/Metropolis.jpg
  369. 369. http://www.flickr.com/photos/radioflyer007/ http://petjunction.blogspot.com/2007/07/adorables.html
  370. 370. I’m in ur Internets http://www.flickr.com/photos/radioflyer007/ http://petjunction.blogspot.com/2007/07/adorables.html
  371. 371. I’m in ur Internets ... web fohwr zero!! http://www.flickr.com/photos/radioflyer007/ http://petjunction.blogspot.com/2007/07/adorables.html
  372. 372. More innovation Common Ubiquity Novel Low High Certainty
  373. 373. More innovation Common Payroll Ubiquity Novel Low High Certainty
  374. 374. More innovation Common Payroll Company Web site Ubiquity Novel Low High Certainty
  375. 375. More innovation Common Payroll Company Web site Ubiquity Neuristic Kitten Thing Novel Low High Certainty
  376. 376. More innovation Common Dynamic Ubiquity Novel Low High Certainty
  377. 377. More innovation Common Ubiquity INNOVATION Novel Low High Certainty
  378. 378. More innovation Common Market Competitive Ubiquity Gap You Novel Low High Certainty
  379. 379. http://www.flickr.com/photos/radioflyer007/ http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/5/51/Metropolis.jpg
  380. 380. More innovation The need to constantly evolve in order to stand still relative to an eco- system. Professor Leigh M.Van Valen
  381. 381. More innovation “more efficient”
  382. 382. http://www.flickr.com/photos/radioflyer007/
  383. 383. More innovation “more process”
  384. 384. More innovation Common Defined Processes Ubiquity Novel Low High Certainty
  385. 385. More innovation Common COMMODITY Ubiquity Novel Low High Certainty
  386. 386. http://www.flickr.com/photos/radioflyer007/ http://petjunction.blogspot.com/2007/07/adorables.html
  387. 387. More innovation Common COMMODITY Ubiquity Novel Low High Certainty
  388. 388. More innovation Common Defined Ubiquity Novel Low High Certainty
  389. 389. More innovation Common Ubiquity INNOVATION Novel Low High Certainty
  390. 390. More innovation Creative Destruction Joseph A. Schumpeter (1883 - 1950)!
  391. 391. http://www.flickr.com/photos/radioflyer007/ http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/5/51/Metropolis.jpg
  392. 392. http://www.flickr.com/photos/radioflyer007/ http://petjunction.blogspot.com/2007/07/adorables.html
  393. 393. More innovation “innovate more”
  394. 394. http://www.flickr.com/photos/radioflyer007/
  395. 395. More innovation “less process”
  396. 396. More innovation “more process”
  397. 397. http://flickr.com/photos/jonnygoldstein/
  398. 398. Image from Oliver Twist,
  399. 399. More innovation “ideas process”
  400. 400. More innovation Common Rigorous defined procedures Ubiquity Skunk works Novel Low High Certainty
  401. 401. A. The Good, Bad & Ugly B. Part I - Why I.T. is complex C. Part II - The Paradox D. Part III - More or less E. Things to Watch F. A fast life G. Happy Clouds simon.wardley@canonical.com
  402. 402. Adopt a fast life ...
  403. 403. Fast life Commoditisation Innovation Bespoke Products Services
  404. 404. Fast life Innovation Bespoke Products Services Product Competition
  405. 405. Fast life Adoption Laggards Early Time Products
  406. 406. Fast life Adoption “Original” “New and Improved” Time Products
  407. 407. http://www.flickr.com/photos/mush2274
  408. 408. http://www.flickr.com/photos/mush2274/
  409. 409. Fast life Diffusion of Product Innovation Everett Rogers ( 1931 - 2004 )
  410. 410. Fast life Common Product Ubiquity Novel Low High Certainty
  411. 411. Fast life Common Product Ubiquity INNOVATION Novel Low High Certainty
  412. 412. Fast life Adoption “Original” “New and Improved” Time Products
  413. 413. Fast life Common Widespread Product Ubiquity Feature Complete INNOVATION Novel Low High Certainty
  414. 414. Fast life Common Services Product Ubiquity INNOVATION Novel Low High Certainty
  415. 415. Fast life Innovation Bespoke Products Services highly disruptive
  416. 416. Fast life Common Standard Components Ubiquity Novel Low High Certainty
  417. 417. Fast life Common Standard Components Componentisation Ubiquity Novel Low High Certainty
  418. 418. Fast life Common Standard Components Componentisation Ubiquity Innovation Novel Low High Certainty
  419. 419. Fast life Common Standard Components Componentisation Ubiquity Commoditisation Innovation Novel Low High Certainty
  420. 420. Fast life Common Standard Components Componentisation Ubiquity Commoditisation Innovation Novel Low High Certainty
  421. 421. Fast life Common Standard Components Componentisation Ubiquity Commoditisation Innovation Novel Low High Certainty
  422. 422. http://www.flickr.com/photos/mush2274/
  423. 423. A. The Good, Bad & Ugly B. Part I - Why I.T. is complex C. Part II - The Paradox D. Part III - More or less E. Things to Watch F. A fast life G. Happy Clouds simon.wardley@canonical.com
  424. 424. Happy clouds ...
  425. 425. Happy Clouds Three Rules happy
  426. 426. Happy Clouds Three Rules happy Run the service on my own Rule 1 machines.
  427. 427. Happy Clouds Three Rules happy Run the service on my own Rule 1 machines. Easily switch between my machines Rule 2 and a cloud provider.
  428. 428. Happy Clouds Three Rules happy Run the service on my own Rule 1 machines. Easily switch between my machines Rule 2 and a cloud provider. Easily switch between cloud Rule 3 providers.
  429. 429. Happy Clouds Hypervisor Bare Metal Private Cloud
  430. 430. Happy Clouds Hypervisor Easy Hypervisor Switching Bare Metal Bare Metal Amazon EC2 Private Cloud
  431. 431. Happy Clouds Competitive Market
  432. 432. A. The Good, Bad & Ugly B. Part I - Why I.T. is complex C. Part II - The Paradox D. Part III - More or less E. Things to Watch F. A fast life G. Happy Clouds simon.wardley@canonical.com
  433. 433. End ...
  434. 434. Beyond End ...
  435. 435. Common Services Ubiquity Products Bespoke Novel Innovation Low High Certainty
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