Bankrupting Nature Global risks and pathways to     global sustainability  Anders Wijkman and Johan Rockström           Go...
Motivet för ”Den stora förnekelsen”    och ”Bankrupting Nature”• Växande gap mellan den traditionella  ekonomin och Nature...
Vi lånar av framtiden• Skulderna i relation till BNP inom OECD gått från 160 %  1980 till över 320 % idag. Som ett KORTHUS...
3-6-9    5   Photos: Mattias Klum
Humanity has reached a planetary                                                            saturation point              ...
Kummu, Ward, de Moel, Varis 2010 Environmental Research Letters
Atmospheric CO2 concentration          Etheridge et al. Geophys Res 101: 4115-4128  IGBP synthesis: Global Change and the ...
Northern hemisphere average surface           temperature              Mann et al Geophys Res Lett 26(6): 759-762      IGB...
Atmospheric N2O concentration              Machida et al Geophys Res Lett 22:2921-2925   IGBP synthesis: Global Change and...
Atmospheric CH4 concentration              Blunier et al J Geophy Res 20: 2219-2222  IGBP synthesis: Global Change and the...
Ozone depletion            JD Shanklin British Antarctic SurveyIGBP synthesis: Global Change and the Earth System, Steffen...
Natural climactic disasters  IGBP synthesis: Global Change and the Earth System, Steffen et al 2004
Ocean ecosystems               FAOSTAT 2002 Statistical databaseIGBP synthesis: Global Change and the Earth System, Steffe...
Coastal zone nitrogen flux                     Mackenzie et al 2002.IGBP synthesis: Global Change and the Earth System, St...
Tropical rainforest and                 woodland lossRichards, the Earth as transformed by human action, Cambridge Univers...
Domesticated land               Klein Goldewijk and BattiesIGBP synthesis: Global Change and the Earth System, Steffen et ...
Species extinctions                   Wilson, the Diversity of Life.IGBP synthesis: Global Change and the Earth System, St...
Photo Mattias Klum
Photo Mattias Klum                     2   Photo: Mattias Klum                     3
Multiple Interacting driving forces pushingsystems towards tipping pointsNatural Fire regimesBiomass burningPalm-oil expan...
+
The Resilience of the Earth System
Humanity’s 10,000 years of grace
Ozone                                    depletion                 Climate                            Atmospheric         ...
Transgressing safeboundaries                                       Global fresh-                                        wa...
ClimateGlobal Warming did not stop in 1998                                                    - as many deniers claim     ...
Photo: CC Jason Auch / Azote
Photo: S Zeff / Azote
Klimatförändringens riskerUncertain uncertainty3 ºC   6 ºC                             34
Global emission pathways incompliance with a 2 ºC guardrail                               (WBGU 2009)
Top Fossil Fuel Emitters (Absolute)             Top four emitters in 2011 covered 62% of global emissions               T%...
Interactions among Planetary Boundaries                10                 9                           Resilience of       ...
Merchants of Doubt• Tobacco, Acid rain, CFC and now Climate  change – the same tactics• Financed by oil and coal lobby, bu...
Climate negotiations are not likely to deliver – at                least not in time  Almost 20 years of negotiations and ...
Inte bara klimat – även ekosystem  som urholkas och resursknapphet• Vi har dålig förståelse av vad exponentiell tillväxt  ...
”Peak oil” major threat to prosperity• Cheap oil is the main reason behind rapid increase in standard-  of-living• Project...
EROI will become increasingly                important:•   EROI for crude oil until 1970 – 50:1 to 100:1•   Today < 20:1• ...
Peak oil and rising energy prices will        have serious consequences• Cheap oil main reason for prosperity• Growing gap...
Investments in Renewables and Efficiency on the rise – but too slow• Many barriers to investments:  - information lacking ...
Real commodity prices, 1980-2011*30025020015010050  0      1980      1985         1990    1995      2000       2005      2...
In a resource-constrained world• Competition for water, land, energy and  materials will be fierce• Investments in resourc...
The Growth Dilemma• Continued economic growth, as presently  structured, will not be possible from the point of  climate, ...
Major shortcomings in conventional       economic policy framework•   Natural capital is not accounted for•   GDP growth c...
• The Financial system increasingly  resembles a gigantic Ponzi  Scheme; many people getting rich  by depleting natural st...
The financial sector expansion• In 1980 global financial assets represented 109 %of world GDP• In 2006 the ratio was 346 %...
Financial sector and sustainability• Short term dominates; Quarterly reporting,  compensation systems extremely short term...
Financial sector ignoring the risks• The valuation of fossil companies is related to the reserves reported• The largest co...
Lovande tecken•   Världen kan klara sig på sol, vatten och vind•   Kostnaderna för solenergi faller drastiskt•   Investeri...
How to move forward?• We need a vision for a sustainable society• How much is lagom?• Analyze carefully the necessary tran...
A old/new economic paradigm
Strategy for Sustainability• Stop having Economic Growth as main target ! Focus on  specific welfare goals instead.• Prior...
Strategy for Sustainability II• Rethink Economics:- Take Nature into Account- New indicators for welfare and well-being- P...
Strategy for Sustainability III• The world needs a binding climate agreement – to  evolve into agreement for Sustainabilit...
Strategy for Sustainability IV• Crash Programme for Sustainable Innovation:  - From Cradle to Cradle – closed material    ...
”De-coupling” – a challenge• Ever since Bruntland Report ”de-coupling” has  been seen as THE SOLUTION to address  environm...
Move towards a circular/cyclic                economy• Products are designed to last longer• Reuse, recycling and recondit...
Functional sales do happen in B2B•   Rolls Royce leases jet engines•   Interface leases carpets•   Michelin leases tyres f...
Labour productivity has increased twentyfold     since 1850. It is not utopian to think ofresource productivity increasing...
Ytterst en existentiell fråga• Vår mission är att sprida kunskap om riskerna med hopp om  att förändra• Prevention is bett...
Johan rockström och Anders Wijkman - Bankrupting nature 2013
Johan rockström och Anders Wijkman - Bankrupting nature 2013
Johan rockström och Anders Wijkman - Bankrupting nature 2013
Johan rockström och Anders Wijkman - Bankrupting nature 2013
Johan rockström och Anders Wijkman - Bankrupting nature 2013
Johan rockström och Anders Wijkman - Bankrupting nature 2013
Johan rockström och Anders Wijkman - Bankrupting nature 2013
Johan rockström och Anders Wijkman - Bankrupting nature 2013
Johan rockström och Anders Wijkman - Bankrupting nature 2013
Johan rockström och Anders Wijkman - Bankrupting nature 2013
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Johan rockström och Anders Wijkman - Bankrupting nature 2013

  1. 1. Bankrupting Nature Global risks and pathways to global sustainability Anders Wijkman and Johan Rockström Gothenburg 20th February 2013 1
  2. 2. Motivet för ”Den stora förnekelsen” och ”Bankrupting Nature”• Växande gap mellan den traditionella ekonomin och Naturen• Växande gap mellan Finansmarknaden och den reella ekonomin• Dagens system – med konventionell tillväxt och konsumtion som ökar - är inte hållbart• Men det finns andra – och mer hållbara - sätt att organisera ekonomin
  3. 3. Vi lånar av framtiden• Skulderna i relation till BNP inom OECD gått från 160 % 1980 till över 320 % idag. Som ett KORTHUS – inte hållbart• Nya finansbubblor att vänta – och samhället får ta stöten• Vi lånar av naturen. Miljö- och resursutrymmet krymper: - Klimatförändringen - 2/3 av viktigaste ekosystemen överutnyttjas - Planetens Gränsvillkor - ”Peak oil”, ”Peak fosfor”, ”Peak rare earths”• Därtill kommer den sociala utmaningen: inkomstskillnader + arbetslöshet• Digitaliseringen av samhället påverkar alla sektorer – och många jobb försvinner medan färre nyskapas• Kan dagens kapitalism klara övergången till en hållbar ekonomi? En alternativ modell behövs – men hur ser den ut?
  4. 4. 3-6-9 5 Photos: Mattias Klum
  5. 5. Humanity has reached a planetary saturation point The Human ability to do has vastly outstripped our ability to understand A resilient biosphere the basis for humen development Fierce urgency of now A great transformation to global sustainability necessary, possible, and desirable Johan Rockström and Carl2013-02-22 Folke, Stockholm Resilience Centre
  6. 6. Kummu, Ward, de Moel, Varis 2010 Environmental Research Letters
  7. 7. Atmospheric CO2 concentration Etheridge et al. Geophys Res 101: 4115-4128 IGBP synthesis: Global Change and the Earth System, Steffen et al 2004
  8. 8. Northern hemisphere average surface temperature Mann et al Geophys Res Lett 26(6): 759-762 IGBP synthesis: Global Change and the Earth System, Steffen et al 2004
  9. 9. Atmospheric N2O concentration Machida et al Geophys Res Lett 22:2921-2925 IGBP synthesis: Global Change and the Earth System, Steffen et al 2004
  10. 10. Atmospheric CH4 concentration Blunier et al J Geophy Res 20: 2219-2222 IGBP synthesis: Global Change and the Earth System, Steffen et al 2004
  11. 11. Ozone depletion JD Shanklin British Antarctic SurveyIGBP synthesis: Global Change and the Earth System, Steffen et al 2004
  12. 12. Natural climactic disasters IGBP synthesis: Global Change and the Earth System, Steffen et al 2004
  13. 13. Ocean ecosystems FAOSTAT 2002 Statistical databaseIGBP synthesis: Global Change and the Earth System, Steffen et al 2004
  14. 14. Coastal zone nitrogen flux Mackenzie et al 2002.IGBP synthesis: Global Change and the Earth System, Steffen et al 2004
  15. 15. Tropical rainforest and woodland lossRichards, the Earth as transformed by human action, Cambridge University Press IGBP synthesis: Global Change and the Earth System, Steffen et al 2004
  16. 16. Domesticated land Klein Goldewijk and BattiesIGBP synthesis: Global Change and the Earth System, Steffen et al 2004
  17. 17. Species extinctions Wilson, the Diversity of Life.IGBP synthesis: Global Change and the Earth System, Steffen et al 2004
  18. 18. Photo Mattias Klum
  19. 19. Photo Mattias Klum 2 Photo: Mattias Klum 3
  20. 20. Multiple Interacting driving forces pushingsystems towards tipping pointsNatural Fire regimesBiomass burningPalm-oil expansionEl NinoEl Nino goes from regenerative todestructive forceBreaking millennia long Fire-ElNino relationship for Dipterocarptrees
  21. 21. +
  22. 22. The Resilience of the Earth System
  23. 23. Humanity’s 10,000 years of grace
  24. 24. Ozone depletion Climate Atmospheric change aerosol loading Biogeochemical loading: OceanGlobal N & P cycles acidification Planetary Rate of Boundaries Global biodiversity loss freshwater use Land system Chemical change pollution
  25. 25. Transgressing safeboundaries Global fresh- water use … Rockström et al. 2009 Nature, 461 (24): 472-475
  26. 26. ClimateGlobal Warming did not stop in 1998 - as many deniers claim Source: Skeptical Science, Church et al 2011
  27. 27. Photo: CC Jason Auch / Azote
  28. 28. Photo: S Zeff / Azote
  29. 29. Klimatförändringens riskerUncertain uncertainty3 ºC 6 ºC 34
  30. 30. Global emission pathways incompliance with a 2 ºC guardrail (WBGU 2009)
  31. 31. Top Fossil Fuel Emitters (Absolute) Top four emitters in 2011 covered 62% of global emissions T%), United States (16%), EU27 (11%), India (7%)TTTTTThe growing gap between EU27 and USA is due to emission decreases in Germany (45% of the 1990-2011 cumulative difference), UK (19%), Romania (13%), Czech Republic (8%), and Poland (5%) Source: CDIAC Data; Le Quéré et al. 2012; Global Carbon Project 2012
  32. 32. Interactions among Planetary Boundaries 10 9 Resilience of 8 the Earth Gt Carbon/yr 7 ocean system 6 5 land 4 3 2 1 atmosphere 0 Adapted from Canadell et al., 2007
  33. 33. Merchants of Doubt• Tobacco, Acid rain, CFC and now Climate change – the same tactics• Financed by oil and coal lobby, but – as well – by right-wing think tanks, who view every attempt of gvt regulation of the economy as a threat to Freedom• Ideology blocks new knowledge – ex Kahan´s study
  34. 34. Climate negotiations are not likely to deliver – at least not in time Almost 20 years of negotiations and still no agreement Negotiations must continue, but a Plan B must be developed We have to look for Ad hoc-solutions
  35. 35. Inte bara klimat – även ekosystem som urholkas och resursknapphet• Vi har dålig förståelse av vad exponentiell tillväxt innebär - Ett land som Kina – med 7-10 % tillväxt per år – innebär en fördubbling av ekonomin på mindre än tio år• Konsekvensen av den snabba tillväxten, inte bara i Kina, är att energi, mark och vatten kommer att vara knappa resurser i framtiden• Klimatförändringen förstärker problemen – inte minst försörjningen med mat• Men ekonomin och politiken hanterar inte detta
  36. 36. ”Peak oil” major threat to prosperity• Cheap oil is the main reason behind rapid increase in standard- of-living• Projected increase in demand will require a new Saudi every third year, posing risk of gap between demand and supply• Serious consequences for world economy – Energy transition takes time• Hype around shale oil and shale gas – great uncertainties re possible reserves to extract and environment and climate risks; leakage from shale gas appear large• Military and security think tanks have issued repeated warnings about peak oil and its consequences
  37. 37. EROI will become increasingly important:• EROI for crude oil until 1970 – 50:1 to 100:1• Today < 20:1• EROI for tar sand in Canada – c:a 5:1• EROI for wind – > 10:1• EROI for ”ethanol from corn” – 1:1• EROI for nuclear – ?• EROI for solar energy – > 15:1 Critical issue: energy cost relative to GDP
  38. 38. Peak oil and rising energy prices will have serious consequences• Cheap oil main reason for prosperity• Growing gap between demand and supply• Higher prices will affect growth• Certain sectors will be severely hit, like transport and agriculture• Tensions – and potential conflicts – around energy access are likely• The world would need an Oil Protocol
  39. 39. Investments in Renewables and Efficiency on the rise – but too slow• Many barriers to investments: - information lacking - split incentives - finance; less support for renewables in 2012 than 2011 - time to commerzialise new technology and scale up. - hype around shale oil and shale gas - intermittency - land and water requirements - EROI
  40. 40. Real commodity prices, 1980-2011*30025020015010050 0 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 Energy Metals & Minerals AgricultureNote: 2011 is Jan-Feb average
  41. 41. In a resource-constrained world• Competition for water, land, energy and materials will be fierce• Investments in resource-efficient infrastructure and renewables must have top priority• Recycling and reuse will be KEY• R&D must be aiming at sustainable innovation
  42. 42. The Growth Dilemma• Continued economic growth, as presently structured, will not be possible from the point of climate, ecosystems, resource constraints and planetary boundaries• De-growth is not possible from the point of view of the economy, the financial system and social stability• Few politicians want to discuss this dilemma• The challenge can only be addressed through a thorough discussion in society and a transition to a more sustainable model
  43. 43. Major shortcomings in conventional economic policy framework• Natural capital is not accounted for• GDP growth confused with increase in welfare• Resources are treated as if easy to substitute• Non-linear systems don´t fit in linear economic models• Positive discounting downplays costs in the future• Externalities not accounted for + Perverse Subsidies• Financial system by and large ignores of climate risks• Income gaps widen dramatically• Unemployment not proactively addressed
  44. 44. • The Financial system increasingly resembles a gigantic Ponzi Scheme; many people getting rich by depleting natural stocks and destabilizing climate or by creating bubbles – and selling out before the bubbles burst
  45. 45. The financial sector expansion• In 1980 global financial assets represented 109 %of world GDP• In 2006 the ratio was 346 %• “Bubbles” should surprise no-one• House market in the US is still almost 40 %below 2007 level• In 1980 salary for CEO in finance was equal withindustry average; today > 4 times higher• In 2007 finance sector made up 40 % of USprivate sector profits! In 1970´s around 6%• Too high debt ratios in too many countries
  46. 46. Financial sector and sustainability• Short term dominates; Quarterly reporting, compensation systems extremely short term• Rapid credit expansion – controlled by the financial sector, not gvts, means future is mortgaged• Unsustainable investments proliferate and the consequences are negative as regards climate change, ecosystem overuse and resource depletion• Money pouring into tar sands in Canada and shale oil in the US; whereas money for renewables is tough to obtain• What about our Pension Funds?
  47. 47. Financial sector ignoring the risks• The valuation of fossil companies is related to the reserves reported• The largest companies report much larger fossil reserves than can be used to stay within 2° degrees - 745 billion tons CO2 vs 565 billion tons• These companies < ¼ of estimated fossil reserves, most of which are owned by state-owned companies• The valuation shows a huge discrepancy between science and the way markets work• Markets appear to believe that a)climate change is a hoax, b) there will be no international climate agreement or c) CCS will solve the problem• If CCS is the solution, WHY are investments at a record low?• True, there is no global price on Carbon. But the risks are there. Besides: Ethics?
  48. 48. Lovande tecken• Världen kan klara sig på sol, vatten och vind• Kostnaderna för solenergi faller drastiskt• Investeringarna i förnybar el > fossilbaserad el• Utvecklingen av passivhus; Bygga i trä• Utvecklingen av superlätta o energisnåla fordon• Nya material ersätter bomull• Digitaliseringen• Factor 5• Biomimicry – lär av naturen• From cradle to cradle• Men det går för långsamt och systemet i stort ger inte rätt incitament
  49. 49. How to move forward?• We need a vision for a sustainable society• How much is lagom?• Analyze carefully the necessary transition• Apply a system´s approach• Merge the agendas of finance, economy, employment, climate change, pollution and resource depletion and constraints• The financial crisis is not about money alone – it is as much about natural resources
  50. 50. A old/new economic paradigm
  51. 51. Strategy for Sustainability• Stop having Economic Growth as main target ! Focus on specific welfare goals instead.• Priority to transdisciplinary science and education• Education of economists a major challenge• Strengthen Global Governance – start w EU+Asia?• Merge poverty reduction w climate and ecosystem protection• Reform economic and finance policy frameworks• Public Procurement proactive role in transformation• Land use critical – both forests and agriculture• Stabilise population• Bring in behavioral sciences; facts alone will not help
  52. 52. Strategy for Sustainability II• Rethink Economics:- Take Nature into Account- New indicators for welfare and well-being- Promote Circular Economy- Binding targets for energy and resource efficiency- Raising taxes on use of virgin materials/ reducing taxes on labor- New Business models for performance- Finance sector reform; start by taking climate and environment risks seriously-
  53. 53. Strategy for Sustainability III• The world needs a binding climate agreement – to evolve into agreement for Sustainability• In the absence we need a Plan B – that gives priority as well to energy security - Multiply support for Energy R&D - Multiply investments in renewables - Binding goal for energy efficiency - Global Feed-in Tariff for Renewables - Remove perverse subsidies
  54. 54. Strategy for Sustainability IV• Crash Programme for Sustainable Innovation: - From Cradle to Cradle – closed material loops; ”Nature does not have a design problem – Humans do” - Biomimicry - Use ICT for transformative change - Functional services / Extend wealth - Multiply financial support for Energy R&D
  55. 55. ”De-coupling” – a challenge• Ever since Bruntland Report ”de-coupling” has been seen as THE SOLUTION to address environment and resource constraints• Relative de-coupling is happening – but absolute de-coupling is far away• Efficiency gains normally eaten up by continued economic growth and the rebound effect• Efficiency is crucial but must be achieved within a differently organized economy, i e by doing the right things
  56. 56. Move towards a circular/cyclic economy• Products are designed to last longer• Reuse, recycling and reconditioning of materilas main objective• Will require local service economy for maintenance and repair = more jobs• Will require new business models focusing on HQ service and performance• Can be promoted by tax reform; raising taxes on use of virgin materials while lowering taxes on labour• A circular economy will mean less pressure on resources – both finite and renewables• In addition it will lead to significantly lower GHG emissions ( Research by SEI, York and others)• The EU Commission Roadmap for a Resource-Efficient Europe!
  57. 57. Functional sales do happen in B2B• Rolls Royce leases jet engines• Interface leases carpets• Michelin leases tyres for trucks• Xerox offers copying services Resource and energy use + CO2 emissions have decreased significantly. The companies have benefitted financially. Now is time to move into the area of B2C – cars, appliances, electronic equipment, kitchens, furniture, textiles etc
  58. 58. Labour productivity has increased twentyfold since 1850. It is not utopian to think ofresource productivity increasing tenfold in 100 years and fivefold in 50 years! For that to happen, policy frameworks must change and Business Models undergo significant change, giving real priority to alternative energy as well as energy and resource efficicency
  59. 59. Ytterst en existentiell fråga• Vår mission är att sprida kunskap om riskerna med hopp om att förändra• Prevention is better than Cure• Klarar vi som kollektiv att ta ansvar på lång sikt – utan än tydligare kriser?• De rika ländernas ansvar är fundamentalt, men det talar vi tyst om• När insikterna ökar borde intresset öka för att tänka om: Men långt mer än fakta behövs• Djupliggande kulturella, psykologiska och sociologiska spärrar• Medias förändrade roll en utmaning – ”infotainment”• Både politiken och ekonomin kortsiktiga• Politikens renässans?• Det tog lång tid att utveckla demokratin eller avskaffa slaveriet…..

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