Uma Lele's ICID Presentation, World Irrigation Forum, 29 Sept-5 Oct, Turkey
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  • The data on Agricultural Water Resources (i.e., Irrigation, reservoirs, hydraulic structures, ground water exploitation for agricultural use) and Forestry (only) are available since 1995.

Uma Lele's ICID Presentation, World Irrigation Forum, 29 Sept-5 Oct, Turkey Uma Lele's ICID Presentation, World Irrigation Forum, 29 Sept-5 Oct, Turkey Presentation Transcript

  • Challenges and Developments in Financing Irrigation and Drainage Sector Uma Lele (with inputs from Tushaar Shah, Mohamed Ait Kadi, Herve Plusquellec, Richard Reidinger) A Keynote Presentation prepared for the Plenary Session on sub theme of the ICID First World Irrigation Forum, Mardin, Turkey, September 30, 2013.
  • 1. Agricultural Intensification is the key 2. Water is critical to intensification 3. Increasing water use efficiency and water productivity is of utmost importance, in the context of total factor productivity 4. Financing of Irrigation and Drainage Needs New Paradigms 5. Modernize surface irrigation. Do not just rehabilitate 6. Modernization is no silver bullet 1. Keep Service Delivery to the Clients at the Center stage 2. Make modernization contextual due to immense diversity among regions and countries and within countries. 3. Do not copy blindly –innovate, adapt, monitor, evaluate and disseminate 7. Improve quality of service s to farmers. 8. Develop national capacity to deal with complexity. Key Messages
  • Information Technology Revolution Satellite Imagery Precision Farming Sprinkler Irrigation Systems Drip Irrigation Modernization of Surface Irrigation Systems Catching Up? Huge Advances in Irrigation Technology
  • 4 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 BaseYear1970=100 GDP Growths by Region (constant 2000 US$) (1970-2011) East Asia & Pacific (developing only) High income Latin America & Caribbean (developing only) Middle East & North Africa (developing only) South Asia Sub-Saharan Africa (developing only) Source: WDI and Global Development Finance, World Bank Note: MENA--data is not available for the year 2011 Global Growth Is Driven by All Developing Regions since 1990
  • Highly Changed Global Environment • Globalization—international trade in food, integration of markets • Huge Technological Change—IT, • Land and Water Grab • Biofuels • Declined international assistance and declined food aid • Increased Role of Private Sector Investments? • Public Private Partnerships—Boutique projects • for High value crops • Climate related investments— Some supportive of watershed protection • PES, • Mitigation • Adaptation • Best of Science
  • FAO Financing Projections to Meet Global Food Demand to 2050 • $ 4 Trillion Investment in Agriculture needed by 2050 • $ 1 Trillion in irrigation and drainage-85% in depreciation/replacement • To Feed ---9 Billion+ in 2050: • Cereal Production (Net of Biofuels) Increase by 60% over 2005 level to meet demand growth • 1.1 percent grow the needed annually down from 2.2 percent in the past 4 decades • Diversification of diets –some water intensive, some water saving • Almost all Growth in Food Demand Will be in Developing Countries • Reduction of Waste ?
  • Real Agricultural Prices Have Fallen Since 1900, Even as World Population Growth Accelerated Source: USDA, Economic Research Service using Fuglie, Wang, and Ball (2012).
  • Sources of Investment in Agriculture Source: The State of Food and Agriculture 2012.
  • Sources of Growth in Investments in Irrigation and Drainage—Some Examples National Public Investments in agriculture  China-$600 billion over 10 years  India-$70 billion in 5 years  Turkey  Morocco International Assistance • World Bank • Asian Development Bank Private Investments • Farmer Investment • India--half of the public sector-1950-2011 of $ 117 to $ 334 billion • China—Water Users’ Association—20 to 30 pc • Private Investment • PPPs <$10m? • Private Industry-- unknown-
  • 10 Source: International Water Management Institute analysis done for the Comprehensive Assessment of Water Management in Agriculture using the Watersim model. Water Scarcity will Increase Food Insecurity Areas of Physical and Economic Water Scarcity
  • Global Hunger # of Undernourished by Region South Asia 304 East Asia 167 Sub- Saharan Africa 234 Rest of the World 163 2010-12 Total=868 million Population Living in Poverty by Region South Asia 506.77 East Asia 250.9 Sub- Saharan Africa 413.73 Rest of the World 43.58 2010 Total=1214.98 million Data Source: The State of Food Insecurity in the World 2012 Source: http://iresearch.worldbank.org/PovcalNet/index.htm?1 (using 2005 PPP and $1.25/day poverty line)
  • Agricultural Total Factor Productivity (TFP) Index Growth by Region (1961-2009) 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 BaseYear1961=100 Source: Fuglie, Wang and Ball 2012 Growth is Lagging in Sub-saharan Africa and South Asia East Asia MENA South-East Asia LAC Oceania Sub-Saharan Africa South Asia
  • Average Annual Change in Agricultural Capital Stock per Worker in Low- and Middle-income Countries (1980–2007) Source: FAO 2012.
  • Actual and Projected Growths of Area Equipped for Irrigation by Region (1961-2050) (Base Year 1961=100) 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 1961 1963 1965 1967 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 2027 2029 2031 2033 2035 2037 2039 2041 2043 2045 2047 2049 Sub-Saharan Africa South Asia East and South-East Asia Latin America and Caribbean Near East and North Africa Source: FAO, 2013.
  • Arable Irrigated Land: Equipped and in Use (million ha) (1960- 2050) Source: Alexandratos and Bruinsma 2012.
  • Total Area Equipped for Irrigation by Region(1000 ha)(1961-2011) 0 10000 20000 30000 40000 50000 60000 70000 80000 90000 100000 Source: FAOSTAT Sub-Saharan Africa Northern America Latin America and Caribbean Eastern Asia South Asia South-Eastern Asia
  • Total Area Equipped for Irrigation (Brazil, China, India and Indonesia) (1000 ha) (1961-2011) 0 10000 20000 30000 40000 50000 60000 70000 Brazil China India Indonesia Growth of Surface and Ground Water in India (1951-2007) Source: FAOSTAT Faures and Mukherji 2011
  • Growth of Public Irrigation Investment & Stagnant Canal Irrigation Area in India 0 6 12 18 24 30 36 42 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 Netirrigatedarea (millionha) Expenditure (billionUS$,in2000prices) Trends of public expenditure in major and medium irrigation and net irrigated area under different sources in India Expenditure Tanks Canals Groundwater Groundwater Irrigated Area Groundwater Canal Irrigated Area Tank Irrigated Area Expenditure US$ (2000 prices) Source: Strategic Analyses of the National River Linking Project (NRLP) of India, Series 5. Proceedings of the Second National Workshop on Strategic Issues in Indian Irrigation. International Water Management Institute 2009.
  • Distribution of Electric and Diesel Pump-sets in South Asia Source: Tushaar Shah (2009) Climate change and groundwater: India’s opportunities for mitigation and adaptation. +3 million of Drip Irrigation
  • Total Area Harvested for Cereals (million ha) (1961-2012) (Brazil, China, India and Indonesia) 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 1961 1964 1967 1970 1973 1976 1979 1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 Brazil China India Indonesia Total Cereals Yield (hg/ha) (1961-2012) (Brazil, China, India and Indonesia) 0 10000 20000 30000 40000 50000 60000 70000 1961 1964 1967 1970 1973 1976 1979 1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 Brazil China India Indonesia Source: FAOSTAT
  • Share of Agriculture & Allied Sector in Total Gross Capital Formation (Percent) in India (1950-51 to 2008-09) 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 1950-1951 1952-1953 1954-1955 1956-1957 1958-1959 1960-1961 1962-1963 1964-1965 1966-1967 1968-1969 1970-1971 1972-1973 1974-1975 1976-1977 1978-1979 1980-1981 1982-1983 1984-1985 1986-1987 1988-1989 1990-1991 1992-1993 1994-1995 1996-1997 1998-1999 2000-2001 2002-2003 2004-2005 2006-2007 2008-2009 Public Sector Private Sector Total Public + Private Private Public Source: Central Statistical Organization (CSO), India.
  • Total ODA and ODA to Agriculture + Forestry + Fishing, Forestry (Only) and Agricultural Water Resources [Current Prices (USD billions) (1967-2011)] 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing Only Forestry Agricultural Water Resources Total ODA Source: http://stats.oecd.org/Index.aspx?DatasetCode=TABLE5 OECD Aid to Developing Countries
  • 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 FY60 FY61 FY62 FY63 FY64 FY65 FY66 FY67 FY68 FY69 FY70 FY71 FY72 FY73 FY74 FY75 FY76 FY77 FY78 FY79 FY80 FY81 FY82 FY83 FY84 FY85 FY86 FY87 FY88 FY89 FY90 FY91 FY92 FY93 FY94 FY95 FY96 FY97 FY98 FY99 FY00 FY01 FY02 FY03 FY04 FY05 FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 Declining Share of Aid to Agriculture in ODA (1960-2013) Share of Agriculture (%) (IBRD+IDA) Share of Agriculture (%) (ODA) Establishment of the CGIAR 1972 McNamara Speech 1973 World Bank ODA WB’s 1997 Vision to Action WB 2002 Reaching the Poor WB 2008 WDR Source: http://stats.oecd.org/Index.aspx?DataSetCode=CRSNEW# World Bank
  • Share of IBRD-IDA Total Commitments by Agricultural Sub-sectors (Real=Nominal/MUV) (MUV Index 2000=100) (1960-2011) (%) (C+E+N) Agric. Extension & research 7% (F+I+J) Animal Production 2% (G+L+M)Crops 8% (O)Forestry 5% (H)Irrigation & Drainage 32%(P+Q)General Ag. 11% (R)Public Admin- Agriculture 1% (K+S+T)Agric. Marketing and Trade + Agro-industry 7% Agriculture adj. 15% Agricultural cred 12% Total=116.6 US$ Billions Source: World Bank
  • 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.8 NumberofIrrigation&Drainageprojects Commitments(US$Billion)(Real=Nominal/MUV) MUV Index 2000=100 Number of Irrigation & Drainage Projects Funded by IBRD-IDA and Total Commitments to Irrigation & Drainage (US$ Billion) (Real=Nominal/MUV) (1960-2011) Number of projects IBRD-IDA Commitments to Irrigation & Drainage Source: World Bank
  • 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 1.2 1.4 NumberofWaterSectorProjectswithI&DComponent WaterSectorLoansandGrants(US$Billion) (Real=Nominal/MUV) Number of Water Sector Projects with I&D Component Funded by ADB and Water Sector Loans and Grants with I&D Sector (US$ Billion) (Real=Nominal/MUV) (1969-2011) Number of projects Total Water Sector Loans and Grants with I & D Component (Billion USD) Waterpart (Billion USD) Source: Asian Development Bank
  • Examples of Modernization Morocco Vietnam China Peru Chile Turkey Indonesia? South Asia? 1. Volumetric Water Charges 2. Sophistication of Engineering not enough 3. Sophistication of Organization 4. Water User’s Associations 5. Increased Water Charges 6. Training 7. Incentives 8. Dedicated Staff 9. Investments 10. Institution 11. Good Governance
  • Africa now a growing recipient of ODA (Commitments) to Agricultural Water Resources by Region (Current Prices) (USD billions) (1995-2011) 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 1.2 1.4 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Europe Africa North and Central America South America East Asia South and Central Asia Middle East Source: http://stats.oecd.org/Index.aspx?DatasetCode=TABLE5.
  • To Improve Management  Develop a reliable data for water resources and make information public;  Institute a transparent system of performance benchmarking;  Establish a performance management culture  Raise Irrigation Service Fees (ISF) increasing it closer to the marginal value product of irrigation;  Improve ISF collection to 80-90 per cent of the assessment; ensure that the operating turn-over of an irrigation system is at least 10-12 percept of capital investment;   Establish and levy a ‘conjunctive use’ charge on groundwater irrigation  Link Operation and Maintenance budgets of irrigation systems Irrigation Service Fee collection;  Develop Water User Associations,  Hive off successful irrigation systems as autonomous farmer irrigation companies with perhaps contracts with private sector for delivery of produce;  Improve irrigation service delivery, including the management of the main and delivery systems which includes:
  • To Modernize Improve Performance diagnosis through tools such as RAP and MASCOTTE Undertake Training in modernization at ALL levels including academics, training institutes, consultants, contractors, governments, project managers. Systems operators. Invest in modernization and Implement rather than considering rehabilitation with modernization
  • “ I only hope that (my failure to speak out three decades ago) will encourage others to be bolder so that policies and practice can be better grounded in realities and ………. offset the professional, institutional and personal forces that so easily distort perceptions and generate and sustain misleading and damaging myths. We need not just to struggle to know reality. We need whistle blowers. And we need them to blow more and a good deal louder than I did”– Robert Chambers