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Global to Local Caribbean Socio-Economic Climate Change Scenarios, by Professor John B.R. Agard
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Global to Local Caribbean Socio-Economic Climate Change Scenarios, by Professor John B.R. Agard

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Professor John B.R. Agard gave the GWP Annual Lecture 2014 in Trinidad on June 28th.

Professor John B.R. Agard gave the GWP Annual Lecture 2014 in Trinidad on June 28th.


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  • 1. CLIMATE AND WATER: GLOBAL TO LOCAL CARIBBEAN SOCIO-ECONOMIC CLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIOS John Agard University of the West Indies john.agard@sta.uwi.edu
  • 2. John Agard, UWI
  • 3. • Clear correlation between atmospheric CO2 and temperature over last 160,000 years • Current level of CO2 is outside the bounds of natural variability •Rate of change of CO2 is also unprecedented THE GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE PROBLEM
  • 4. FUTURE HUMAN INDUCED CLIMATE CHANGE DEPENDS ON THE DECISIONS TAKEN BY GOVERNMENTS GLOBALLY: If nothing is done to slow greenhouse gas emissions. . . • CO2 concentrations will likely be more than 700 ppm by 2100 • Global average temperatures are projected to increase between 2.0 – 4.5 °C ??? 2100
  • 5. GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE PROJECTIONS -Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) – 8.5 Wm-2 (RCP 8.5, 1350ppm CO2-e) – 6.0 Wm-2 (RCP 6.0, 850ppm CO2-e) – 4.5 Wm-2 (RCP 4.5, 650ppm CO2-e) – 2.6 Wm-2 (RCP 2.6, 450ppm CO2-e)
  • 6. John Agard, UWI SOURCE: IPCC Wk Gp 1 Ar5 PROJECTED PRECIPITATION CHANGE IN THE CARIBBEAN THE REGIONAL LEVEL
  • 7. John Agard, UWI SOURCE: IPCC Wk Gp 1 Ar5 PROJECTED TEMPERATURE CHANGE IN THE CARIBBEAN
  • 8. John Agard, UWI PROJECTED PRECIPITATION CHANGE IN TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO Pre THE LOCAL LEVEL
  • 9. John Agard, UWI PROJECTED PRECIPITATION CHANGE BARBADOS
  • 10. John Agard, UWI PROJECTED PRECIPITATION CHANGE SAINT LUCIA
  • 11. Health Insect vectors and infectious diseases Agriculture Crop yields Irrigation demands Watershed Management Changes in water supply Water quality Coastal Areas Erosion of beaches (loss of coral reefs). Inundation of coastal wetlands. Costs to protect coastal communities Forests Change in forest composition Shift geographic range of forests Forest health and productivity Carbon sequestration Species and Natural Areas Shift in ecological zones Loss of habitat and species Potential Climate Change Impacts Climate Changes Sea Level Rise Temperature Precipitation Tropical Storms WATER AVAILABILITY IS A PART OF EVERY ASPECT OF THE DIRECT IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE
  • 12. John Agard, UWI THE POTENTIAL IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE HAS 2 COMPONENTS: 1. The physical climate signal e.g. rainfall intensity 2. The socio-economic and political component
  • 13. John Agard, UWI 8.5 6.0 4.5 2.6 MitigationChallenge AdaptationChallenge Adaptive Capacity Residual Impact Adaptation Mitigation LOW HIGHMEDIUM Mitigation Capacity Socioeconomic DevelopmentClimateSignal e.g. Haiti e.g. Trinidad & Tobago e.g. Trinidad e.g. St Lucia HDI AGRICULTURE ECONOMY TOURISM ECONOMY INDUSTRIAL ECONOMYRCP
  • 14. Caribbean Small Island Scenario Construction Global Regional National/Local Shared Socio-economic Policy Assumption Scenarios Small Island Developing State Scenarios Projected CC impacts on crops, water availability, forest, coastal protection, tourism etc. Downscaled temperature & precipitation, sea level rise Commodity prices e.g. oil & gas, agricultural products, Investment capital Agricultural/Mineral economy: e.g. Jamaica Tourism economy: e.g. Barbados, St Lucia Industrial economy: e.g. Trinidad & Tobago ©John Agard, UWI
  • 15. SSP narratives + RCP quantification SSP database (pop, GDP, urbanization) Scenarios of future Caribbean political economy Industrial (Trinidad & Tobago) Tourism-based (Barbados & St. Lucia) Agricultural/ Mineral (Jamaica) Health, coasts, forests, biodiversity, cocoa Freshwater, forests Sweet potato Regional typology Global (RCP/SSP) Local “windows”
  • 16. ECOSYSTEM SERVICES IMPACTS SOCIETY •People •Lifestyles •Culture •Social organization ENVIRONMENT •Land •Water •Air •Biodiversity •Minerals ECONOMY •Agriculture •Industry •Transport •Households ONSHORE ECONOMY OFFSHORE ECONOMY SUGAR,OIL IDEAS MONETARY CAPITAL, TECHNICAL & MANAGERIAL SKILLS STAPLES FOR METROPOLITAN CONSUMPTION INCLUDING CULTURAL SERVICES e.g TOURISM. PROJECTED GLOBAL COMMODITY PRICES TO BE MODELED BASED ON SSP-RCP SCENARIOS e.g. INDUSTRIAL POLLUTION, e.g. WATER POLLUTION e.g. CLEAN WATER © John Agard, UWI Neo-Plantation Economy Logic e.g. WATER FOR INDUSTRY
  • 17. John Agard, UWI Dr Adrian Cashman CERMES, UWI, Barbados
  • 18. 18 Varietal differences: •Colour (Flesh and skin) •Texture • Foliage Source: CARDI 2010 2. Methodology: Five Varieties Food Security Modelling-Sweet Potatoes Dale Rankine, UWI, Mona Jamaica
  • 19. 19 Devon Ebony Park Passley Gardnes Bodles* * * * 2. Methodology: Site Locations
  • 20. 2. The Methodology: The FAO AquaCrop Model 20 The Conceptual Framework •B=WP x ΣTr [Biomass] (ET=E+T) •WP normalised for ET and CO2 • Y=B x HI [Yield] •Robust, Accurate yet simple Conceptual Framewor k of AquaCrop Source: Hsiao et al 2011
  • 21. Results: Model Parameterization (Devon vs Ebony Park) 21 0.000 5.000 10.000 32 65 96 137 Yield(t/ha) DAP Ebony Park-Rainfed (2013) Measured Simulated
  • 22. 3. Results: 2012/2013 Parameterization(Summarised) 22 Year Treatment Canopy Cover Biomass Yield Devon RSME (%) E RSME (t/ha) E RSME (t/ha) E 2012 Irrigated 44.32 -8.69 20.33 -1.09 3.77 0.13 Rainfed 31.21 -0.97 9.73 -1.02 6.40 -0.13 2013 Irrigated 3.37 0.99 2.95 0.67 2.29 -0.05 Rainfed 8.01 0.91 4.18 0.35 1.22 0.75 Ebony Park 2013 Irrigated 29.88 -1.14 8.87 0.12 2.59 0.63 Rainfed 21.86 0.38 2.08 0.84 3.69 -14.02 •Improvement in model parameterization (2012 vs 2013) •Enhanced model performance (in 2013): prediction of yields for both Rainfed (Devon) and Irrigated (Ebony) plants         N i i N i ii OO SO E 1 2 1 2 )( )( 1
  • 23. TROPICAL STORMS COASTAL FLOODING WIND RAINFALL Storm surge Waves + RSLR (climate change) DROUGHTS Understanding the Economics of Climate Change Adaptation (ECA) in Trinidad and Tobago
  • 24.     , 1 , i n i i j ji jD VH DAMAGE = α ∙ HAZARD ∙ VULNERABILITY HAZARDcharacterization VULNERABILITYcharacterization 4. TROPICAL STORMS 4.1. METHODOLOGY INDEX DAMAGE SCALE 1 Very low 2 Low 3 Medium 4 High 5 Very High WIND (km/h) INDEX 0-40 1 40-90 2 90-130 3 130-180 4 more than 180 5 WIND (km/h) INDEX DAMAGE SCALE 0-40 1 Very low 40-90 2 Low 90-130 3 Medium 130-180 4 High more than 180 5 Very High WIND(km/h)INDEXDAMAGESCALE 0-401Verylow 40-902Low 90-1303Medium 130-1804High morethan1805VeryHigh 1 2 3 4 5 2 4 6 8 10 3 6 9 12 15 4 8 12 16 20 5 10 15 20 25
  • 25. WIND AND RAINFALL DISSAGREGATION BASED ON ADMINISTRATIVE UNITS 4. TROPICAL STORMS 4.2. RECEPTORS
  • 26. COASTAL FLOODING DISSAGREGATION BASED ON ADMINISTRATIVE UNITS 4. TROPICAL STORMS 4.2. RECEPTORS
  • 27. , , 1 n i i i j i j j D V H   CALIBRATION OF THE DAMAGE FUNCTION: Ranking TC event Loss (USD) Most severe Flora 1963 299,359,310 Second most severe Not named 1933 54,901,280 Third most severe Ivan 2004 34,111,016 Calibration of the damage functions (α) 4. TROPICAL STORMS 4.3. CALIBRATION Pragmatic approach: relationship between historical events and reported damages (economical losses). The historical database will condition the fitting of the α parameter In this project only 3 events with economical loss reported
  • 28. Tropical Cyclones (TC) Historical TC selection Stochastic simulation Representative TC (MDA) Dynamical modelling Coastal FloodingRainfall Wind Reconstruction (RBF) Hidromet-Ranking Vortex H2D SWAN Hazard 4. TROPICAL STORMS 4.4. DAMAGE
  • 29. 29 Cost-Benefit Analysis of climate change adaptation measures for Trinidad and Tobago Action code Title Total cost Total benefit Net present value Pay back (years) Benefit-Cost Ratio TTA 1 National Building Code $4,529,327 $72,151,025 $40,675,033 3 15.9 TTA 2 Construction of dikes in coastal areas $85,977,904 $6,825,496 -$55,532,774 146 0.1 TTA 3 Meteorological alert System connected to the Monitoring System $41,000 $4,179,913 $2,923,547 0.1 101.9 TTA 5 Social Awareness Program $198,787 $98,559 -$80,224 ∞ 0.5 TTA 4 Emergency Protocols $1,659,793 $3,767,319 $1,489,173 0 2.3 TTA 6 Institutional Training Program TTA 7 Rainwater harvesting $1,714,977 $1,180,476 -$493,475 25 0.7 TTA 8 Infrastructure and Building Reinforcement $61,820,734 $27,911,274 -$26,705,453 35 0.5 TTA 9 Retention ponds $279,616 $47,027 -$180,117 ∞ 0.2 TTA 10 Filter Strips $487,080 $356,132 -$119,458 25 0.7 TTA 11 Permeable pavements $375,536,762 $38,897,785 -$240,055,769 ∞ 0.1 TTA 12 Beach nourishment $23,688,332 $20,736,386 -$5,810,982 19 0.9 TTA 13 Mangrove planting $744,188 $71,348,613 $40,273,146 5.1 95.9 TTA 14 Agricultural Insurance Program $62,850 N/A N/A N/A N/A TTA 15 Agriculture & Climate Change Research Unit $4,455,439 $986,772 -$2,544,836 ∞ 0.2 TTA 16 Green Roofs $1,055,220 $1,786,554 $213,421 10 1.7
  • 30. Mosquitoes Dengue virus Environment Humans Epidemiology Factors Human Health Modelling Professor Dave D. Chadee Department of Life Sciences, University of the West Indies, St. Augustine, Trinidad, West Indies.
  • 31. Forest Density Maps – all species combined Forest Modelling Dr Shobha Maharaj, Department of Life Sciences, UWI, Trinidad and Tobago
  • 32. John Agard, UWI
  • 33. Business as Usual Security First Sustainability First Scenarios for 2020 and beyond policy reform market forces breakdown fortress world new sustainability eco-communalism •Globalization evolves gradually •Capitalist values spread •Developing countries like T&T converge toward rich-country patterns of development •Social, environmental and economic instability amplify •Civilized norms erode •New values and institutions ascend •Human solidarity strengthens •Deep respect for nature becomes norm Variations…. Comprehensive government initiatives seek to attain social and environmental goals Powerful global and local actors advance the priority of economic growth An authoritarian response to security concerns – – elites retreat to protected enclaves Conflicts and crises spiral out of control and institutions collapse A highly localist vision that is a strong theme within the anti- globalization movement Seeks to change the character of global civilization rather than retreat into localism… ..validates global solidarity, cultural cross-fertilization and economic connectedness.. ..in quest of a humanistic, ecological and liberatory transition Sustainable Development
  • 34. Dimensions of Transition Values Knowledge Demographic Social Economic Governance Technology … counter consumerism, individualism, domination of nature …highlight systemic approaches …stabilize populations and create sustainable communities …ensure rights, eradicate poverty, celebrate diversity …make the economy a means of serving people and preserving nature …build stakeholder partnerships at all levels …rely on renewable resources, industrial ecology A Great Transition would involve changes in all aspects of culture…
  • 35. Change Agents in the Transition to Sustainability Intergovernmental organizations Transnational corporationsCivil society An aware and engaged public Will the political will emerge? Will civil society overcome fragmentation and begin to unify around a common vision? Will corporations become responsible national citizens? The answers depend on the quality of awareness and engagement of the citizens of the world… …there will be no Transition to Sustainability without citizen action led by a a network of NGO’s & CBO’s.
  • 36. THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION John Agard, UWI

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