TEC GWP         International Workshop         Synergy in Integration   Institutional Mechanism               forManaging ...
“O Children of Adam!... Eat anddrink: But waste not by excess, forGod loveth not the wasters.”                        Al-Q...
WATER IS THE NEXUS• Water is central to the socio economic  development.• Food security, poverty reduction,  economic grow...
PRESENTLY IRRIGATED AREAS AND PROPOSED WATER PROJECTS                               NWFP                                  ...
Water Extreme Events: Flood & Drought
SOCIAL DEVELOPMENT                              Human Poverty      Employment                           DevelopmentAllevia...
Management Instruments●   Conflict resolution to manage disputes and    ensure equitable and fair sharing of water.●   Eco...
Integration• Floods and drought• Extreme value events• Dry and wet cycles• Seasonal variability• Climate change
Synergy in integration• Meteorology science• Field measurement• Satellite• Remote sensing• Models• Predictions• Impact Red...
Message•   Inter-Governmental Panel on Climate Change    (IPCC) : Pakistan/Indus Basin to face higher    frequency, severi...
Objective of the Workshop    Policy Influence: Flood and Drought       Management for Food SecurityClimate Change Reaches ...
Focal Issues with Policy Makers• Public welfare• Security• National- geographic boundaries• Food• Energy• Heath•   Scio ec...
Security ?   Dimensions….Stand aloneIntegratedStatePublicSocietyLocal
Security Horizons•   Conflict•   Disturbance•   Law & Order•   Institutional Collapse•   Revolution•   War
Impact Factors•   Scarcity•   Prestige•   Independence•   Sovereignty•   Economics•   Development•   Poverty•   Hunger•   ...
Magnitude•   Survival•   MDGs•   PRSP•   Life
Communication strategy•   Droughts    cause reduction in growth:    impacts on agricultural production and    livelihood.•...
Value of Message•   Reconstruction process      requires US$ 10    billion public sector investment and equal    investmen...
Percentage changes in annual extreme precipitation
Ethiopia: Rainfall, GDP and Agricultural GDP
Trends in Flood Damages• $6 billion annually 1910s                     $ 2.2• Four-fold increase 1930s                    ...
Need AssessmentKnowledge gaps: Hydrology developed by Linsley Hydraulic Engineering designs developed  by US System Hyd...
ImpactClimate change reaches to Pakistan through water:a. Threat to glaciers, water towersb. Implications of GLOFc. Change...
Updating National Water Sector Data
Water, the Primary Medium• Water is the primary medium through which  climate change will impact people, ecosystems  and e...
Actions Required1. Evaluation of the existing system2. Learning from the South Asia3. Learning from the Global experience4...
Moving Towards Solutions1. Partnership2. Linkages with Research Institutions3. Creation of network Institutions providing ...
Some Concrete Suggestions• Support improved climate information systems• Integration of climate information into water   r...
The Temporal Dimension: Timeframes,        Sequencing and UncertaintyFocus on: Strengthening management information, infr...
DSS For Real Time ForecastingPlanning and Operations in a                                             S a te llit te      ...
Thanks We don’t deserve
By: Naseer A. Gillani       Chief (Water)
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Synergy in Integration - Institutional Mechanism for Managing Hydrological Extremes, by Naseer Ahmad Gillani

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Synergy in Integration - Institutional Mechanism for Managing Hydrological Extremes, by Naseer Ahmad Gillani

  1. 1. TEC GWP International Workshop Synergy in Integration Institutional Mechanism forManaging Hydrological Extremes Naseer Ahmad GillaniChief Water / CEO, National Drought Program Planning Commission Chairman, Pakistan Water Partnership
  2. 2. “O Children of Adam!... Eat anddrink: But waste not by excess, forGod loveth not the wasters.” Al-Qura’an“Water is the driver of Nature” Leonardo da Vinci (1452 – 1519) 2
  3. 3. WATER IS THE NEXUS• Water is central to the socio economic development.• Food security, poverty reduction, economic growth, energy production, human health
  4. 4. PRESENTLY IRRIGATED AREAS AND PROPOSED WATER PROJECTS NWFP Disputed Territory PUNJAB BALOCHISTAN AREA Presently Ongoin SINDH Irrigated g Areas Scheme s Sindh 6.5 MA 1.0 MA Punjab 33.4 MA 1.5 MA NWFP 2.3 MA 0.5 MA Balochista 2.2 MA 0.8 MA n TOTAL 44.4 MA 3.8 MA 4
  5. 5. Water Extreme Events: Flood & Drought
  6. 6. SOCIAL DEVELOPMENT Human Poverty Employment DevelopmentAlleviation Generation Index (HDI)
  7. 7. Management Instruments● Conflict resolution to manage disputes and ensure equitable and fair sharing of water.● Economic instruments – using value and prices for efficiency and equity.● Information management and exchange to improve knowledge for better water management.
  8. 8. Integration• Floods and drought• Extreme value events• Dry and wet cycles• Seasonal variability• Climate change
  9. 9. Synergy in integration• Meteorology science• Field measurement• Satellite• Remote sensing• Models• Predictions• Impact Reduction• Recovery
  10. 10. Message• Inter-Governmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) : Pakistan/Indus Basin to face higher frequency, severity and aerial coverage of extreme events of water availability and non- availability (floods and droughts)• Recent floods and droughts: our knowledge is not enough.• Moving from structural measures to non-structural software initiatives.
  11. 11. Objective of the Workshop Policy Influence: Flood and Drought Management for Food SecurityClimate Change Reaches to Pakistan Through Water
  12. 12. Focal Issues with Policy Makers• Public welfare• Security• National- geographic boundaries• Food• Energy• Heath• Scio economic growth• Infrastructure• Trade• Natural resources
  13. 13. Security ? Dimensions….Stand aloneIntegratedStatePublicSocietyLocal
  14. 14. Security Horizons• Conflict• Disturbance• Law & Order• Institutional Collapse• Revolution• War
  15. 15. Impact Factors• Scarcity• Prestige• Independence• Sovereignty• Economics• Development• Poverty• Hunger• Survival
  16. 16. Magnitude• Survival• MDGs• PRSP• Life
  17. 17. Communication strategy• Droughts cause reduction in growth: impacts on agricultural production and livelihood.• There is not much to combat or de- accelerate the climate change by Pakistan, mandatory is : climate change adaptation.
  18. 18. Value of Message• Reconstruction process requires US$ 10 billion public sector investment and equal investment by private sector.• In the absence of predicted expected peak flows, the time, duration, frequency and location may cause the investment void.• Public investment for hydraulic structures for water augmentation may not provide the anticipated benefits due to reduced mean annual flows.
  19. 19. Percentage changes in annual extreme precipitation
  20. 20. Ethiopia: Rainfall, GDP and Agricultural GDP
  21. 21. Trends in Flood Damages• $6 billion annually 1910s $ 2.2• Four-fold increase 1930s 1920s $ 2.0 from early 1900s $ 2.9 1940s $ 2.4• Per Capita Damages 1950s $ 3.4 increased by more 1970s1960s $ 2.2 than a factor of 2.5 1980s $4.9 $ 3.3 in the previous 1990s century in real dollar BILLIONS (adjusted to 1999 dollars) 1 2 3 4 5 6 terms
  22. 22. Need AssessmentKnowledge gaps: Hydrology developed by Linsley Hydraulic Engineering designs developed by US System Hydraulic System Computation Models produced by Netherland European Model “SHE” Pakistan UNESCO Model of rainfall run off All have to be revisited Solution specific models to be developed.
  23. 23. ImpactClimate change reaches to Pakistan through water:a. Threat to glaciers, water towersb. Implications of GLOFc. Changed pattern of monsoon, intensive rains, flash floods, prolonged droughts.d. Increased temperature : enhanced crop water requirements.e. Cyclones and sea-level changes.
  24. 24. Updating National Water Sector Data
  25. 25. Water, the Primary Medium• Water is the primary medium through which climate change will impact people, ecosystems and economies• Water resources management should therefore be an early focus for adaptation to climate change• Water resources management does not hold all of the answers to adaptation; a broad range of responses will be needed• But, water is both part of the problem and an important part of the solution. It is a good place to start
  26. 26. Actions Required1. Evaluation of the existing system2. Learning from the South Asia3. Learning from the Global experience4. Updating existing/create new models
  27. 27. Moving Towards Solutions1. Partnership2. Linkages with Research Institutions3. Creation of network Institutions providing cost effective engineering solutions incorporating software components
  28. 28. Some Concrete Suggestions• Support improved climate information systems• Integration of climate information into water resource management planning activities• Link hydrologists who are looking for practical and sustainable adaptation solutions – get them to interact
  29. 29. The Temporal Dimension: Timeframes, Sequencing and UncertaintyFocus on: Strengthening management information, infrastructure New institutions and Co-operation, UNESCO, WMO, DHI
  30. 30. DSS For Real Time ForecastingPlanning and Operations in a S a te llit te D a taReal Time Environment G ro u n d D a ta R A IN FA L L FO REC ASTS M IK E 1 1 M O D E L L IN G FO R EC ASTS
  31. 31. Thanks We don’t deserve
  32. 32. By: Naseer A. Gillani Chief (Water)

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