Synergy in Integration - Institutional Mechanism for Managing Hydrological Extremes, by Naseer Ahmad Gillani
TEC GWP International Workshop Synergy in Integration Institutional Mechanism forManaging Hydrological Extremes Naseer Ahmad GillaniChief Water / CEO, National Drought Program Planning Commission Chairman, Pakistan Water Partnership
“O Children of Adam!... Eat anddrink: But waste not by excess, forGod loveth not the wasters.” Al-Qura’an“Water is the driver of Nature” Leonardo da Vinci (1452 – 1519) 2
WATER IS THE NEXUS• Water is central to the socio economic development.• Food security, poverty reduction, economic growth, energy production, human health
PRESENTLY IRRIGATED AREAS AND PROPOSED WATER PROJECTS NWFP Disputed Territory PUNJAB BALOCHISTAN AREA Presently Ongoin SINDH Irrigated g Areas Scheme s Sindh 6.5 MA 1.0 MA Punjab 33.4 MA 1.5 MA NWFP 2.3 MA 0.5 MA Balochista 2.2 MA 0.8 MA n TOTAL 44.4 MA 3.8 MA 4
SOCIAL DEVELOPMENT Human Poverty Employment DevelopmentAlleviation Generation Index (HDI)
Management Instruments● Conflict resolution to manage disputes and ensure equitable and fair sharing of water.● Economic instruments – using value and prices for efficiency and equity.● Information management and exchange to improve knowledge for better water management.
Integration• Floods and drought• Extreme value events• Dry and wet cycles• Seasonal variability• Climate change
Synergy in integration• Meteorology science• Field measurement• Satellite• Remote sensing• Models• Predictions• Impact Reduction• Recovery
Message• Inter-Governmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) : Pakistan/Indus Basin to face higher frequency, severity and aerial coverage of extreme events of water availability and non- availability (floods and droughts)• Recent floods and droughts: our knowledge is not enough.• Moving from structural measures to non-structural software initiatives.
Objective of the Workshop Policy Influence: Flood and Drought Management for Food SecurityClimate Change Reaches to Pakistan Through Water
Communication strategy• Droughts cause reduction in growth: impacts on agricultural production and livelihood.• There is not much to combat or de- accelerate the climate change by Pakistan, mandatory is : climate change adaptation.
Value of Message• Reconstruction process requires US$ 10 billion public sector investment and equal investment by private sector.• In the absence of predicted expected peak flows, the time, duration, frequency and location may cause the investment void.• Public investment for hydraulic structures for water augmentation may not provide the anticipated benefits due to reduced mean annual flows.
Percentage changes in annual extreme precipitation
Trends in Flood Damages• $6 billion annually 1910s $ 2.2• Four-fold increase 1930s 1920s $ 2.0 from early 1900s $ 2.9 1940s $ 2.4• Per Capita Damages 1950s $ 3.4 increased by more 1970s1960s $ 2.2 than a factor of 2.5 1980s $4.9 $ 3.3 in the previous 1990s century in real dollar BILLIONS (adjusted to 1999 dollars) 1 2 3 4 5 6 terms
Need AssessmentKnowledge gaps: Hydrology developed by Linsley Hydraulic Engineering designs developed by US System Hydraulic System Computation Models produced by Netherland European Model “SHE” Pakistan UNESCO Model of rainfall run off All have to be revisited Solution specific models to be developed.
ImpactClimate change reaches to Pakistan through water:a. Threat to glaciers, water towersb. Implications of GLOFc. Changed pattern of monsoon, intensive rains, flash floods, prolonged droughts.d. Increased temperature : enhanced crop water requirements.e. Cyclones and sea-level changes.
Water, the Primary Medium• Water is the primary medium through which climate change will impact people, ecosystems and economies• Water resources management should therefore be an early focus for adaptation to climate change• Water resources management does not hold all of the answers to adaptation; a broad range of responses will be needed• But, water is both part of the problem and an important part of the solution. It is a good place to start
Actions Required1. Evaluation of the existing system2. Learning from the South Asia3. Learning from the Global experience4. Updating existing/create new models
Moving Towards Solutions1. Partnership2. Linkages with Research Institutions3. Creation of network Institutions providing cost effective engineering solutions incorporating software components
Some Concrete Suggestions• Support improved climate information systems• Integration of climate information into water resource management planning activities• Link hydrologists who are looking for practical and sustainable adaptation solutions – get them to interact
The Temporal Dimension: Timeframes, Sequencing and UncertaintyFocus on: Strengthening management information, infrastructure New institutions and Co-operation, UNESCO, WMO, DHI
DSS For Real Time ForecastingPlanning and Operations in a S a te llit te D a taReal Time Environment G ro u n d D a ta R A IN FA L L FO REC ASTS M IK E 1 1 M O D E L L IN G FO R EC ASTS