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Future of water and agriculture in Sri Lanka in the face of climate change, Nishadi & Vladimir Smakhtin
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Future of water and agriculture in Sri Lanka in the face of climate change, Nishadi & Vladimir Smakhtin

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  • 1. FUTURE OF WATER AND AGRICULTURE IN SRI LANKA IN THE FACE OF CLIMATE CHANGE Nishadi Eriyagama & Vladimir Smakhtin (IWMI) GWP Workshop on Climate Change Food and Water Security Colombo, Sri Lanka, February 2011 Water for a food-secure world
  • 2. OUTLINE• Climate change signals in Sri Lanka – observed changes• What will the future hold? – projected changes• Impacts – On water resources Food Security – On agriculture• Climate change vulnerability hotspots?• Responding to climatic changes• Knowledge gaps Water for a food-secure world
  • 3. INFORMATION SOURCES Interviews and e-mail correspondence with -Government officials 16 -International experts Over 75 national and global climate change studiesSources IWMI climate change vulnerability mapping Preliminary review of recent floods Water for a food-secure world
  • 4. OBSERVED CHANGESTemperature RainfallWarming trends (0C/year) No significant change in Mean 1961-2000 Annual Rainfall Amount North-East Monsoon (Dec – Feb): Dry Zone reduced & Anuradhapura variability 0.024-0.026 increased (Maha) Intermediate Zone Badulla 0.022-0.024 Wet Zone South-West Monsoon (May – Sept): Stable (Yala) Source: Zubair et al. 2005 Water for a food-secure world
  • 5. PROJECTED CHANGES - 1Temperature • General consensus: increasingly warmer in 21st century • IPCC: stronger warming than the global mean in South Asia • Projected magnitude of change: differs from study to study Source Model Scenario Base Year Change at end 21st century Cruz et al. AOGCM A1F1, B1 1961-1990 + 2.93-5.44 0C 2007 Kumar et al. Regional A2, B2 1961-1990 + 2-4 0C 2006; Islam Climate and Rehman Model-RCM 2004 Basnayake et Statistical A1F1, B1, 1961-1990 + 0.9-3 0C al. 2004; De Downscaling A2, B2 Silva 2006 of GCMs Water for a food-secure world
  • 6. PROJECTED CHANGES - 2 Rainfall - Projections for this century confusing and contradictory! Mean Annual Rainfall Higher Mean Annual Rainfall Lower Mean Annual Rainfall Higher South-West Higher South-West Lower South-West Monsoon R/F Monson R/F Monsoon R/F Higher North-East Lower North-East Lower North-East Monsoon R/F Monson R/F Monsoon R/FKumar et al 2006; Islam Cruz et al. 2007; De Silva Ashfaq et al. 2009;and Rehman 2004; 2006; Basnayake and Basnayake et al. 2004Basnayake et al. 2004; Vithanage 2004bBasnayake and Vithanage2004 a Increased Variability Increased Floods & Droughts Water for a food-secure world
  • 7. PROJECTED CHANGES - 3Spatial Pattern of Rainfall Projections for 2050s Projection 1 Projection 2 Projection 3 + De Silva, 2006 -- - De Silva, 2006 + + -- + + Dry Zone + - Dry Zone Dry Zone + + + + + -- - + -- - + + Intermediate Zone + Intermediate Zone + Intermediate Zone + Wet Zone + -- Wet Zone Wet Zone-- + + ++ + + + - ++ - Basnayake et al. 2004 De Silva 2006 Punyawardane et al. 2010 Ambiguity! Water for a food-secure world
  • 8. IMPACTS ON WATER RESOURCES• Dominant School of Thought: Gain in Mean Annual Water Availability• But increased temporal and spatial variability Dry Zone• Brunt of impact on north eastern and eastern dry zone: May become even drier!• Increase in Soil Moisture Defecit in the Dry and Intermediate zones by 2050 (De Silva 2006): More Intermediate Zone irrigation? Wet Zone• Lower water availability in the upper Mahaweli watershed by 2025 (Shantha & Jayasundera 2005): More power cuts? No comprehensive national study! Water for a food-secure world
  • 9. IMPACTS ON AGRICULTURE Paddy Tea CoconutYield: Yield: Yield:• 0.1-0.5 0C temp increase: • 100 mm monthly R/F • Production after 2040:1.2 to 5.9% reduction reduction: 30-80 kg not sufficient for local(Vidanage & reduction in ‘made’ tea/ha consumptionAbeygunawardena 1994) • Increase in ambient CO2 •Increased pest and• Temp increase + CO2 concentration to 600 ppm: disease problems -increase: 24-39% increase 33-37% increase reduce yield (Peiris et al.(De Costa et al. 2006) (Wijeratne et al. 2007) 2004)Irrigation Requirement: Spatial Impact: Economy:13-23% increase in Maha by • Cultivations at low and Losses in the range $32 -2050 (De Silva 2006) mid elevations more $73 million (Fernando et. vulnerable (Wijeratne et al 2007) al. 2007) Economy: Rs. -11 billion to Rs. +39 billion by 2100 (Seo et. Al. 2005) Water for a food-secure world
  • 10. CLIMATE CHANGE VULNERABILITY HOTSPOTS-1 Exposure Index Anuradhapura Nuwara-EliyaSensitivity Index Ratnapura Adaptive Capacity Climate Change Vulnerability Index Index Water for a food-secure world
  • 11. CLIMATE CHANGE VULNERABILITY HOTSPOTS -2Exposure Index based on: Sensitivity Index based on: Population Adaptive Capacity IndexFrequency of exposure to density, % employed in agriculture, based on: education level,historical droughts, floods, irrigation water availability, agricultural poverty incidence, level ofcyclones diversity (crops diversity, livestock infrastructure development farming, fishing) 0 – lowest vulnerability 100 – highest vulnerability Water for a food-secure world
  • 12. CLIMATE CHANGE VULNERABILITY HOTSPOTS -3Highly vulnerable areas are:• Typical farming areas• Have low socioeconomic and infrastructural assets (low adaptive capacity) Anuradhapura• Show high levels of exposure to historical climate extremes Nuwara-Eliya Ratnapura• Primary food producing areas - rely heavily on water availability for agriculture Water for a food-secure world
  • 13. RESPONDING TO CLIMATIC CHANGES - 1 Response Mitigation Adaptation Knowledge•Signatory to UNFCC •National Adaptationand Kyoto Protocol Strategy•Second National •“No Regrets”Communication interventionsprepared Research Eg: Restoration of the•Small hydropower ancient tank systemCDM projects•Others – “GreenLanka” program Water for a food-secure world
  • 14. RESPONDING TO CLIMATIC CHANGES - 2 Adaptation Crops Climate Tools Water Resources Sea Level Rise•Development of •Predicting annual •Restoring existing •Climate Changeheat/salt/pest national coconut tanks Adaptation Actionresistant short term production Plan by Coastcrop varieties by 6 •Developing sustainable Conservationresearch institutes. •Predicting seasonal groundwater Department (CCD)eg. Rice Research and water availability •Rainwater harvestingDevelopment within the Mahaweli and storageInstitute (RRDI) scheme •Use of micro-irrigation•Crop diversification,change of planting •Wastewater reusetime and location •Greater shift towards alternative energy from hydropower Water for a food-secure world
  • 15. KNOWLEDGE GAPS• Detailed and quality controlled climate scenarios• Flood and drought forecasting systems• National Water Resources Audit eg. Prototype web tool by IWMI http://idistest.iwmi.org:8080/slwa/• Comprehensive national study on vulnerability of water resources and agriculture to climate change covering: – Both surface and ground water – Water quantity and quality – Combined impact of enhanced CO2 + temperature + increased/decreased rainfall on agriculture• Central agency to cater to the need for corporation and data sharing Water for a food-secure world
  • 16. THANK YOU !ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS:• Mr. Lalith Chandrapala, National Disaster Mitigation Council (NDMC)• Dr. B. V. R. Punyawardane, Department of Agriculture• Ms. Dharshanie De Silva, World Bank• Ms. Chandanie Panditharatne, Ministry of Environment and Natural Resources• Mr. Sarath Premalal, Department of Meteorology• Mr. Bandula Wickramarachchi, Coast Conservation Department (CCD)• Mr. N. Wickramaratne, Mahaweli Authority• Mr. H. M. Jayatillake, Irrigation Department• Mr. K. A. U. S., Imbulana, Ministry of Irrigation• Mr. L. Manawadu, University of Colombo• Dr. W. M. W. Weerakoon, Rice Research and Development Institute (RRDI)• Ms. Karin Fernando, Centre for Poverty Analysis (CEPA)• Dr. G. G. A. Godaliyadda, Irrigation Department• Dr. A. W. Jayawardena, Public Works Research Institute, Japan• Mr. Gerard Fernando, National Water Supply and Drainage Board• Mr. Harsha Sooriyarachchi, Water Resources Board• Staff of Sri Lanka Association for the advancement of Science (SLASS)• Dr. Herath Manthrithilake (IWMI) Water for a food-secure world
  • 17. Top ten Natural Disasters from 1901 to 2000Number Affected Number Affected Damage (000 US$)2500000 10000002000000 100000 100001500000 10001000000 100 500000 10 0 1 Tsunami 2004 Tsunami 2004 Flood 1983 Flood 1969 Flood 2003 Flood 1989 Flood 1992 Flood 1991 Flood 2003 Flood 1969 Flood 1966 Flood 1967 Storm 1978 Storm 1978 Storm 1964 Flood 1989 Drought 1982 Drought 1987 Drought 2001 Drought 1988 Source: "EM-DAT: The OFDA/CRED International Disaster Database Water for a food-secure world