A 'Plan B' for Food Security - The water variability connection, by Jan Lundqvist, Senior scientific advisor
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A 'Plan B' for Food Security - The water variability connection, by Jan Lundqvist, Senior scientific advisor

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A 'Plan B' for Food Security - The water variability connection, by Jan Lundqvist, Senior scientific advisor Presentation Transcript

  • 1. Climate change, food, and water security: critical issues and cooperative strategies in an age of increased risk and uncertainty for South Asia GWP – IWMI Initiative A ‘Plan B’ for Food Security - The water variability connection Colombo, February 24-25, 2011 Jan Lundqvist Senior scientific advisor
  • 2. Question Is the exclusive focus on increased production the best option to achieve food security? Take home messageNo --- It makes sense to develop a Plan B,a 9th MDG; reduce losses & waste by 50%
  • 3. Mr Henry Kissinger at First World Food Summit, 1974: (then Secretary of State, USA) ”No childwill go to bed hungry within ten years”
  • 4. Dramatic Jump in Undernourishment while Production increased Utilization Production
  • 5. Undernourishment & overeating 1,000 mill undernourished - numbers increasing? and for the 1,400 mill overweight, 400 mill obese – numbers increasing(Source: Economist, Dec. 13, 2003; S. Brichieri-Colombi, WWW 2006)
  • 6. Another 2 - 3 billion in a generation- with dreams- with the right to sense development- much increased purchasing power
  • 7. Demographic and GDP Trends Population Urban GDP (billion) (billion) ($ billion; 2005 ppp)1800: (T. R. Malthus) <1 913 (1820)1900: 1.651950: just after WW2 2.5 7,0062000: 6 3 56,593 (2005)2050: ~9 ~ 6.5 193,318*)*) trend projectionIncrease: 50% 125% 400%(2000 -2050) Source: GDP trend projection: Hillebrand, E., 2009.
  • 8. Socio-economic trends;Food supply, water & environmental footprints Food supply in China, Water footprint 1961 - 2005 Source: Junguo Liu & Huub Savenije; FAO FBS
  • 9. Additional storage peaked in the 70s 80 70Reservoirs (number per year) Other regions 60 Asia 50 Europe 40 North America 30 20 10 0 Up to 1900 1901-1950 1951-1960 1961-1970 1971-1980 1981-1990 1991-1998 Source: Mats Lannerstad
  • 10. Rainfall: Significant Uncertainty and Risk Variability of rainfall – Beira, 1908 to 2009400 BEIRA: monthly rainfall 1908 to 2009350300250200150100 50 0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 1908 1909 1910 1911 1912 1913 1914 1915 1916 1917 1918 1919 1920 1921 1922 1923 1924 1925 1926 1927 1928 1929 1930 1931 1932 1933 1934 1935 1936 1937 1938 1939 1940 1941 1942 1943 1944 1945 1946 1947 1948 1949 1950 1951 1952 1953 1954 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 Source: JeanMarc Faures, FAO
  • 11. Rainfed Agriculture; Soil moisture /green water: size & managementGlobal warming;Variability & returnflow speeded up Options for food, water & livelihood security Land use that permits infiltration • Storing water of rainwater; • Storing produce soil moisture/ • Market access green water Soil moisture enough to over- come effects of dry spells?
  • 12. The seven fat and the seven lean years (Zimbabwe, 1910 – 2000) Possibilities for high yield High risk; low yield
  • 13. The future
  • 14. One planet but (some) live as if we had two Photos: Christer Fuglesang, austronout ”Human demand on the biosphere more than doubled between 1961 – 2007” WWF: Living Planet Report 2010
  • 15. ….and make recommendations as if we had three Plan A: Plan B:Food production to increase by 70% by Post-harvest logistics; food/agr. produce;2050 World Food Summit, Rome, November 2009. - storage, transport & market accessSimilar: World Bank (2008), N. Borlaug (2002), etc. Attention to use & food intake; - Check definition on food security In a context where: Climate change may reduce potential Food waste, EU27: 179 kg/cap, year (2010) yields in SSA and SA by 30% by 2030 (Lobell et al. 2008 in Science) Temperature increase may reduce yields of corn, soya beans and cotton by 30 – 46% in the US in a century (Schlenker & Roberts, PNAS, 2009)
  • 16. Average intake requirement: 1,800 – 2,200 kcal/p, d
  • 17. “It is distressing to note that so much time is being devoted to the culture of the plant, so much money spent onirrigation, fertilization and crop protection measures, only to be wasted about a week after harvest” (FAO, 1981)
  • 18. What is the role of ”evidence-based” knowledge? ”The evolutionary pathway of Man” Courtesy: Andrew Matthews, APN, Wellington, NZ
  • 19. CONCLUSIONS• Production & supply >> intake requirement• Huge losses & waste = multiple cost• Vulnerability of food system increases• Food chain efficiency = water & other resources use efficiency Where is the road ahead?