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Webinar: The cost effectiveness of natural gas combined cycle power plants with ccs in a climate change mitigation strategy
 

Webinar: The cost effectiveness of natural gas combined cycle power plants with ccs in a climate change mitigation strategy

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This webinar will presented the findings of a study to assess the economic viability of natural gas combined-cycle power plants with CO2 capture and storage (NGCC-CCS) in climate change mitigation ...

This webinar will presented the findings of a study to assess the economic viability of natural gas combined-cycle power plants with CO2 capture and storage (NGCC-CCS) in climate change mitigation strategies, emphasising the use of renewable energy and natural gas for electric power generation. In this study, the cost of NGCC-CCS was compared on a level playing field to those of intermittent renewable energy systems (IRES) and energy storage technologies as a means of reducing power sector greenhouse gas emissions. Specifically, the levelised cost of electricity (LCOE) of NGCC-CCS was compared to that of offshore wind, photovoltaic systems, and concentrated solar power (CSP) together with pumped hydro storage (PHS), compressed air energy storage (CAES), and Li-ion, ZEBRA and Zn-Br battery storage systems. The cost of NGCC-CCS as a backup technology in conjunction with IRES also was assessed.

At this webinar, Machteld van den Broek, senior researcher at the Utrecht University, presented the findings of the study. Her expertise is energy systems modelling and CCS. Among others, she is involved in the CATO-2 programme, the second Dutch national research programme on CCS. During the webinar Niels Berghout, junior researcher at the Utrecht University and co-author of this study, assisted during the Q&A session. Professor Edward Rubin from Carnegie Mellon University also contributed to this study.

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    Webinar: The cost effectiveness of natural gas combined cycle power plants with ccs in a climate change mitigation strategy Webinar: The cost effectiveness of natural gas combined cycle power plants with ccs in a climate change mitigation strategy Presentation Transcript

    • The cost-effectiveness of natural gas combined cycle power plants with CO2 capture and storage in a climate change mitigation strategy Webinar – 20 March 2014, 1900 AEDT
    • Machteld van den Broek Machteld van den Broek is a senior researcher at the Utrecht University. She specialises in energy systems modelling and, especially, investigated the role of CO2 capture and storage in the energy system. Among others, she is involved in the CATO-2 programme, the second Dutch national research programme on CCS Senior researcher, Utrecht University
    • Niels Berghout Niels Berghout works as a PhD student at the Energy & Resources group of the Copernicus Institute of Sustainable Development (Utrecht University). His research involves among others techno-economic analyses of CO2 capture in the industrial sector, and several other CCS topics, such as CO2 pipeline transport and shipping. Furthermore, he contributed to the research discussed today. PhD student, Utrecht University
    • Ed Rubin Ed Rubin is a chaired professor in the Department of Engineering & Public Policy, and Mechanical Engineering at Carnegie Mellon University. He is an expert on technological learning and techno-economic assessment of energy systems with CO2 capture and storage and published many widely-cited papers on this subject. Professor, Carnegie Mellon University
    • QUESTIONS  We will collect questions during the presentation.  Your MC will pose these questions to the presenters after the presentation.  Please submit your questions directly into the GoToWebinar control panel. The webinar will start shortly.
    • The cost-effectiveness of natural gas combined cycle power plants with CO2 capture and storage in a climate change mitigation strategy Machteld van den Broek, UU Niels Berghout, UU Ed Rubin, Carnegie Mellon University 6
    • Background • Target: stabilising concentration of greenhouse gases at 450 ppm CO2-equivalent in the atmosphere • Low carbon power systems • What is role of NGCC-CCS in a low carbon power system – providing baseload power – providing backup services 7
    • Research questions • Cost-effectiveness of NGCC-CCS – in baseload role compared to intermittent renewable sources (IRES) • offshore wind • concentrated solar power (CSP) • photovoltaic systems (PV) – as backup service compared to • pumped hydro storage (PHS) • Compressed air energy storage (CAES) • Li-ion battery • ZiBr battery (Zinc-bromine) • Zebra battery (Sodium-Nickel-Chloride, NaNiCl) • What are the potential cost reductions over time due to learning? 8
    • Methodology – starting points • Scope: costs for Europe • Technological learning – experience curve method – Progress ratio (PR): fraction of original cost after each doubling of cumulative installed capacity – Learning rate = 1 – progress ratio. – Global learning • Levelised costs of electricity including extra costs for intermittent technologies – Balancing – Transmission – Backup services 9
    • Levelised cost of electricity - LCOE • Capital cost (CAPEX) and fixed operating and maintenance cost (FOM) – capacity factor is crucial parameter • Variable operating and maintenance cost (VOC) • Fuel cost • CO2 emission cost • Extra balancing and transmission costs • CO2 transport and storage costs • (costs for backup services included in system cost) 10
    • Techno-economic data collection Scenario data Calculation LCOE per technology Inventory extra costs intermittency + decentralized Inventory of progress ratios Calculation LCOE per technology as function of cumulative capacity Calculation LCOE per TECHNOLOGY over time Definition of system configurations Calculation LCOE per SYSTEM over time Historical CO2 emission allowance and natural gas prices 11 2011
    • Techno-economic data collection Scenario data Calculation LCOE per technology Inventory extra costs intermittency + decentralized Inventory of progress ratios Calculation LCOE per technology as function of cumulative capacity Calculation LCOE per TECHNOLOGY over time Definition of system configurations Calculation LCOE per SYSTEM over time Historical CO2 emission allowance and natural gas prices 12 2011
    • Inventory of techno-economic data • Medium values – Averages of the input data found in the literature. – can be considered as most representative values for Europe. • Values can be lower or higher in particular regions in Europe • Full ranges between optimistic and pessimistic values 13
    • Medium values of techno-economic parameters and PRs 14
    • Medium values of techno-economic parameters and PRs 15
    • Techno-economic data collection Scenario data Calculation LCOE per technology Inventory extra costs intermittency + decentralized Inventory of progress ratios Calculation LCOE per technology as function of cumulative capacity Calculation LCOE per TECHNOLOGY over time Definition of system configurations Calculation LCOE per SYSTEM over time Historical CO2 emission allowance and natural gas prices 16 2011
    • 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000 NGCC NGCC- CCS Wind offshore PV CSP NGCC- CCS 40% PHS CAES Li-ion Zebra Zn-br LCOEin€2012/MWhor€2012/MWhintforIRES Investments Natural gas Fixed O&M Variable O&M CO2 emission costs CO2 transport and storage Balancing costs Transmission costs Medium values with spec. discount rate ―― power generation ―― ―――― backup technologies ――― Note: power costs to charge storage systems are not included Baseload Intermittent LCOEs in 2011: ranges Gas price is 6.7 €2012/GJ and CO2 emission price is 13.5 €2012/t, Discount rate is 10%. 17
    • Techno-economic data collection Scenario data Calculation LCOE per technology Inventory extra costs intermittency + decentralized Inventory of progress ratios Calculation LCOE per technology as function of cumulative capacity Calculation LCOE per TECHNOLOGY over time Definition of system configurations Calculation LCOE per SYSTEM over time Historical CO2 emission allowance and natural gas prices 18 2011
    • Inventory of scenarios to determine number of doublings • Scenarios which reach 450 ppm target – 44 scenarios: Global Energy Assessment (GEA, 2012). – 1 scenario: Energy Technology Perspectives 2012 (IEA, 2012) • Focus on 3 scenarios – Base 450 scenario is the 450-ppm scenario (ETP scenario) – High renewable scenario – High NGCC-CCS scenario 19
    • Other Ocean Geothermal Wind total Wind offshore Wind onshore Solar CSP Solar PV Hydro Other Ocean Geothermal Wind total Wind offshore Wind onshore Solar CSP Solar PV Hydro Nuclear Biomass w CCS Biomass and waste Oil w CCS Oil Natural gas w CCS Natural gas Coal w CCS Coal0 5 10 15 20 25 30 2009 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 InstalledcapacityinTW ETP2012 Other Ocean Geothermal Wind total Wind offshore Wind onshore Solar CSP Solar PV Hydro Nuclear Biomass w CCS Biomass and waste Oil w CCS Oil Natural gas w CCS Natural gas Coal w CCS Coal 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 2009 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 InstalledcapacityinTW GEA-efficiency - conventional transport - no beccs, no sinks, limited biomass Other Ocean Geothermal Wind total Wind offshore Wind onshore Solar CSP Solar PV Hydro Nuclear Biomass w CCS Biomass and waste Oil w CCS Oil Natural gas w CCS Natural gas Coal w CCS Coal 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 2009 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 InstalledcapacityinTW IMAGE-MIX O O G W W W So So H N B B O O N N C C Our HIGH-REN 450 scenario Our HIGH-NGCC-CCS 450 scenario Our BASE 450 scenario 20
    • Techno-economic data collection Scenario data Calculation LCOE per technology Inventory extra costs intermittency + decentralized Inventory of progress ratios Calculation LCOE per technology as function of cumulative capacity Calculation LCOE per TECHNOLOGY over time Definition of system configurations Calculation LCOE per SYSTEM over time Historical CO2 emission allowance and natural gas prices 21 2011
    • LCOE versus cumulative capacity under medium conditions Gas price is 6.7 €/GJ and CO2 price is 13.5 €/t. 0 50 100 150 200 250 0 1 10 100 1000 10000 100000 LCOEin€2012/MWhor€2012/MWhintforIRES Cumulative capacity inGW baseload NGCC Baseload NGCC-CCS Mid merit NGCC-CCS Wind offshore PV CSP Note: Power generation from wind offshore, and PV is not controllable, and CSP partly. In contrast, mid-merit NGCC-CCS is controllable. 22
    • LCOE versus cumulative capacity under medium conditions Gas price is 6.7 €/GJ and CO2 price is 13.5 €/t. Capacity factor is set at the availability factor (see table medium values) 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 0 1 10 100 1000 10000 LCOEin€2012/MWh Cumulative capacity inGW CAES PHS Li-ion Zn-Br ZEBRA NGCC-CCS 40% Note: power costs to charge storage systems are not included 23
    • Techno-economic data collection Scenario data Calculation LCOE per technology Inventory extra costs intermittency + decentralized Inventory of progress ratios Calculation LCOE per technology as function of cumulative capacity Calculation LCOE per TECHNOLOGY over time Definition of system configurations Calculation LCOE per SYSTEM over time Historical CO2 emission allowance and natural gas prices 24 2011
    • Natural gas price and CO2 price development 2011 2020 2030 2040 2050 gas price * €/GJ 6,7 7,5 7,0 6,5 6,0 CO2 * €/tCO2 13,5 33 70 107 144 high gas price scenario** €/GJ 6,7 8,5 9,4 9,8 10,4 * Based on IEA – 450 scenario ** Based on IEA – current policy scenario 25
    • LCOE over time under medium conditions in the Base 450 scenario 0 50 100 150 200 250 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 LCOEin€2012/MWh NGCC NGCC-CCS Wind offshore PV CSP 50 100 150 200 250 LCOEin€2012/MWhor€2012/MWhintforIRES 26
    • Sensitivities of LCOEs for different variants in 2040 27 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 NGCC NGCC-CCS Wind offshore PV CSP NGCC-CCS 40% PHS CAES Li-ion Zebra Zn-br LCOEin€2012perMWhorMWhvarforIRES Investments Natural gas Fixed O&M Variable O&M CO2 emission costs CO2 transport and storage Balancing costs Transmission costs HIGH-REN + medium HIGH-NGCC-CCS + medium ―― power generation ―― ―――― backup technologies ―――― Note: power costs to charge storage systems are not included Baseload Intermittent 27
    • Techno-economic data collection Scenario data Calculation LCOE per technology Inventory extra costs intermittency + decentralized Inventory of progress ratios Calculation LCOE per technology as function of cumulative capacity Calculation LCOE per TECHNOLOGY over time Definition of system configurations Calculation LCOE per SYSTEM over time Historical CO2 emission allowance and natural gas prices 28 2011
    • Taking into account cost for backup services In order include additional costs for backup requirements, we designed four stylized systems based on: • NGCC-CCS • IRES/NGCC • IRES/NGCC-CCS • IRES/energy storage Note: All investigated scenarios have a broader portfolio of technologies than these four stylized systems. We only use these stylized systems in order to make some estimates of the backup costs. We treat these stylized systems as isolated systems (e.g. on an island) in a world which follows the BASE 450 scenario, the HIGH-REN 450 scenario, or the HIGH-NGCC-CCS 450 scenario. 29
    • Share of electricity generation in stylized systems The percentage values indicate the capacity factors of the different technologies. Capacity factors (CFs) of wind and PV in the IRES/STORAGE system are lower, because part of the produced power is curtailed or used to charge power storage. 30
    • Taking into account adequacy requirements 31 0 50 100 150 200 250 0 50 100 150 200 250 CO2emissionsinkg/MWh AverageLCOEin€2012/MWh NGCC NGCC-CCS Wind offshore PV PHS Curtailment BASE 450 + medium HIGH-REN + medium HIGH-NGCC-CCS + medium ――― 2020 ――― ――― 2030 ――― ――― 2040 ――― = CO2 emissions
    • Caveats -> further research • No deployment projections on storage capacity in global energy scenarios • More data required from power system simulation models of low carbon electricity systems with power storage • Demand side management is not included • Techno-economic data uncertain, especially, for novel technologies like ZEBRA and Zn-Br • Progress ratios not always available or based on short historical time series. 32
    • Conclusions – NGCC-CCS as backup • Cost of NGCC-CCS as backup – Less reduction than batteries – Less uncertain – under medium conditions (charging cost not included) • Somewhat higher than PHS, and CAES, and ZnBr • Lower than Li-ion and ZEBRA. 33
    • Conclusions – NGCC-CCS as baseload • Cost of NGCC-CCS as baseload power plant – Less reduction than for IRES – Less uncertain than IRES – Under medium conditions (excluding cost for IRES backup): • in same range as offshore wind and CSP • lower than PV. – Cost-effectiveness depends on deployment rate and location • Cost for backup services – Cost of IRES/NGCC-CCS system lower than system with IRES and PHS (medium conditions) 34
    • QUESTIONS / DISCUSSION Please submit your questions in English directly into the GoToWebinar control panel. The webinar will start shortly.
    • Please submit any feedback to: webinar@globalccsinstitute.com