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The role of CCS in mitigation scenarios - Ellina Levina, IEA
The role of CCS in mitigation scenarios - Ellina Levina, IEA
The role of CCS in mitigation scenarios - Ellina Levina, IEA
The role of CCS in mitigation scenarios - Ellina Levina, IEA
The role of CCS in mitigation scenarios - Ellina Levina, IEA
The role of CCS in mitigation scenarios - Ellina Levina, IEA
The role of CCS in mitigation scenarios - Ellina Levina, IEA
The role of CCS in mitigation scenarios - Ellina Levina, IEA
The role of CCS in mitigation scenarios - Ellina Levina, IEA
The role of CCS in mitigation scenarios - Ellina Levina, IEA
The role of CCS in mitigation scenarios - Ellina Levina, IEA
The role of CCS in mitigation scenarios - Ellina Levina, IEA
The role of CCS in mitigation scenarios - Ellina Levina, IEA
The role of CCS in mitigation scenarios - Ellina Levina, IEA
The role of CCS in mitigation scenarios - Ellina Levina, IEA
The role of CCS in mitigation scenarios - Ellina Levina, IEA
The role of CCS in mitigation scenarios - Ellina Levina, IEA
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The role of CCS in mitigation scenarios - Ellina Levina, IEA

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This is a presentation delivered by Ellina Levina of the International Energy Agency (IEA) at the Institute’s COP 17 side event, held on November 30. The presentation reviews the IEA’s work on CCS, …

This is a presentation delivered by Ellina Levina of the International Energy Agency (IEA) at the Institute’s COP 17 side event, held on November 30. The presentation reviews the IEA’s work on CCS, including its scenarios that project CCS as delivering 19 per cent of required global emission cuts by 2050. The presentation also reviews current challenges to CCS and to global emissions reduction efforts.

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  • 1. The Role of Carbon Capture and Storage in Mitigation Scenarios Durban, South Africa 30 November 2011 Ellina Levina Carbon Capture and Storage Unit International Energy Agency© OECD/IEA 2010
  • 2. INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY (2/18) IEA countries OECD countries, but not IEA members  Inter-governmental body founded in 1973, currently 28 Member Countries  Policy advice and energy security coordination  Whole energy policy spectrum and all energy technologies  Flagship publications include WEO and ETP  Host to more than 40 technology-specific networks (“Implementing Agreements” or “IAs”)  Operated independently with their own membership and financing  Includes GHG IA (often called IEA GHG)  Active in CCS since 2000; dedicated CCS unit created in 2010  Provides policy advice  Supports broader IEA cross-technology analysis© OECD/IEA 2010
  • 3. GLOBAL CO2 EMISSIONS DOUBLED  Global energy-related CO2 emissions have more than doubled in past 40 years, from 14Gt to 30Gt  Until very recently, emissions are driven by OECD countries  Since 2005, non-OECD countries emit more than OECD  Current CO2 concentration in atmosphere roughly 390ppm© OECD/IEA 2010
  • 4. ENERGY DEMAND CONTINUES TO GROW  Energy demand +40% by 2035 (12000  17000 Mtoe)  China: >30% of global incremental demand  OECD demand stagnates© OECD/IEA 2010 Source: “New Policies Scenario”, IEA World Energy Outlook 2011
  • 5. CO2 EMISSIONS CONTINUE TO GROW  Energy-related CO2 emissions 36 Gt by 2035  Gas-related CO2 emissions grow fastest (1,5%pa), followed by coal (0,5%pa)  650ppm CO2-eq pathway© OECD/IEA 2010 Source: “New Policies Scenario”, IEA World Energy Outlook 2011
  • 6. TOWARDS SUSTAINABLE FUTURE  Current policies or “reference scenarios” unsustainable  Scientific evidence and policy ambitions now often target “450ppm scenarios” (50-50 chance to keep temperature increase at ≤2C)  Critical period NOW to establish policy and develop technology© OECD/IEA 2010 Source: “New Policies Scenario”, IEA World Energy Outlook 2011
  • 7. CARBON CAPTURE & STORAGE: LIMITED ROLE WITH KNOWN POLICIES...  Only 65GW of CCS-equipped coal-fired power capacity by 2035  Share of CCS in coal-fired power remains at 3% in 2035 (and only 1% of total power generation)  No gas-CCS  No or very limited industry-CCS© OECD/IEA 2010 Source: “New Policies Scenario”, IEA World Energy Outlook 2011
  • 8. … BUT CRITICAL IN “450” SCENARIOS  World energy-related CO2 emissions abatement in the 450ppm Scenario relative to the New Policies Scenario  IEA analysis assigns critical role for CCS in a least-cost pathway to reaching 450ppm scenario.  If CCS does not deliver, cumulative 25Gt of CO2 emission reductions by 2035 will have to be delivered by other means.© OECD/IEA 2010
  • 9. WHAT IF CCS IS DELAYED UNTIL 2030? o Abatement shifts to renewables and nuclear o A further energy efficiency boost seems impossible o Significant cost increase: 1.14 trn USD additional investment© OECD/IEA 2010 Source: IEA World Energy Outlook 2011
  • 10. THE ROLE OF CCS IN MITIGATING CLIMATE CHANGE 1. CCS is only one of a portfolio of energy technologies that can be applied to reduce emissions; 2. CCS should not be opposed to other low- carbon technologies; 3. CCS offers governments and industry flexibility in the way climate targets are met and contributes to their acceptance of stronger targets; 4. CCS is a relatively new undertaking in all parts of the world and could provide a basis for cooperation and partnership between developing and developed countries.© OECD/IEA 2010
  • 11. CAN THE POTENTIAL OF CCS BE EXPLOITED?  3000+ projects across the globe  and across industries: CCS not only about coal-fired power  150Gt CO2 captured and stored in 2050© OECD/IEA 2010
  • 12. EMISSIONS REDUCTION POTENTIAL FOR CCS  Industry: Potential to reduce CO2 emissions by up to 4.0 Gt annually by 2050  Needed: Up to 1800 projects globally by 2050 with an investment of some $880 Bln (USD) 2010-2050  Applying CCS in high-purity sectors represents early opportunity  Power sector: Potential to reduce emissions by 5.5 Gt CO2 annually by 2050  Needed: 22 GW of power generation with CCS installed in 2020;  Around 60 GW of power plant will need to be retrofitted with CCS by 2050© OECD/IEA 2010
  • 13. PROJECTS ARE NEEDED IN NON-OECD COUNTRIES 2020 Roadmap goal is 100 projects—50 in OECD countries, 50 in non-OECD countries Region Operating Projects in Advanced Projects in Projects Planning or Early-Planning Construction1 Stages2 OECD 7 (88%) 28 (90%) 27 (71%) Non-OECD 1 (13%) 3 (10%) 6 (29%) Total 8 31 38 1Defined as those projects in the “Define” or “Execute” stages (GCCSI, 2010) 2Defined as those projects in the “Evaluate” or “Identify” stages (GCCSI, 2010)© OECD/IEA 2010
  • 14. CHALLENGES REMAIN FOR CCS  Firm decisions to address climate change  Understanding of CCS and recognition of its role Setting strategic  Existing public  High cost policy drivers support 25-35bn USD globally  Market dynamics, incl.  Need to impact of Reducing costs of Financing mobilise 5 cheap gas technology trillion USD  Infrastructure 2010-2050 planning and  Incentive policy coordination pathways Technical Laws & issues regulations  Knowledge on storage capacity  OECD vs. non-OECD countries  Site selection, site monitoring  UNFCCC rules for CDM  Long-term liability  International legal issues e.g.  Public acceptance London Protocol and OSPAR© OECD/IEA 2010
  • 15. STATUS OF CCS COSTS CO2 Capture from power generation (IEA, 2011) Fuel Coal Natural gas (capture route) (similar for all capture routes; (post-combustion) relative to a pulverized coal baseline) Capital costs 3 800 USD/kW 1 700 USD/kW (74% increase) (82% increase) Cost of CO2 avoided 55 USD/tCO2 80 USD/tCO2 Notes: Averages figures for OECD countries shown (costs in China estimated to be about half for most cases), capital costs are overnight costs CO2 Capture from industrial application (UNIDO, 2010) Refining sector 28-96 €/tCO2 Cement plant 36-107 €/tCO2 Pulp and paper 30-40 €/tCO2 Iron & Steel 30-40 €/tCO2 (Kuramochi, 2011) Engineering-Economic Analysis and Historical Experience Curves suggest significant cost reduction potential over time. CO2 transport & storage© OECD/IEA 2010 Very site-specific; likely additional costs of about 20 USD/tCO2
  • 16. ROLE OF UNFCCC IN ADDRESSING CCS CHALLENGES  Strategy, policy and financing challenges  Commitment to GHG emission reduction  Acceptance of CCS in CDM: CCS projects could be incentivized by availability of CDM funding  Legitimize CCS in developing countries, encourage adoption of CCS as NAMAs  Technical and legal challenges  Create a set of international rules and principles for CCS projects under CDM  Build consensus on how key issues should be addressed both in CDM and non-CDM projects, such as: CCS site selection criteria; Monitoring, reporting, and verification (MRV); Project boundaries; Risk, safety, and socio-economic impact assessment; Short-, medium- and long-term liability; Financial assurance, etc.  Encourage development of appropriate and consistent national regulations for CCS projects  Broader deployment© OECD/IEA 2010  Improved understanding and acceptance
  • 17. Thank you! Ellina.levina@iea.org +33 1 40 57 67 03 www.iea.org/ccs© OECD/IEA 2010

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