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Managing Global Emissions: The role of CCS


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  • 1. Managing Global Emissions The role of CCS David Hone, Chief Climate Change Adviser, Shell Hone Adviser
  • 3. MOUNTAINS A view from the top  Influence concentrates amongst the already powerful as advantage powerful, brings more advantage  Less dynamic economic development, muted by rigidities in structures and institutions.  Secondary policy developments facilitated, e.g. climate (CCS).  Natural gas becomes the backbone of the global energy system.  A profound shift occurs in global transport and infrastructure.
  • 4. MOUNTAINS Total primary energy by source 1200 EJ/ye ear 1000 800 600 400 200 0 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 Year Oil Biomass Gasified Biomass Traditional Geothermal Biofuels Coal Nuclear Solar Natural Gas Biomass/Waste Hydroelectricty Wind Other renewables
  • 5. OCEANS A view from the horizon  Emerging interests intermittently accommodated. accommodated Influence widely distributed (e.g. “Twitter” world). C Core reforms unleash growth – and f l h th d expectations for further reform.  Markets dominate and more empowered constituencies hinder some secondary policy advancement (i.e. CCS comes much later).  Hi h prices and th rise of Higher i d the i f distributed solar PV change the energy system. gy y
  • 6. OCEANS Total primary energy by source 1200 EJ/ye ear 1000 800 600 400 200 0 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 Year Oil Biomass Gasified Biomass Traditional Geothermal Biofuels Coal Nuclear Solar Natural Gas Biomass/Waste Hydroelectricty Wind Other renewables
  • 7. 2100 Climate change and the long term challenge of managing emissions 2050 2020 2013
  • 8. The climate change problem Need to avoid the trillionth tonne1 of carbon to stay below 2°C . . . y 1 trillion tonnes 0.8 ~2°C 0.6 2000 2012 2000-2012 0.4 1950 1999 1950-1999 0.2 1900-1949 Starting in 1750 1Warming 0 1850-1899 1800-1849 caused by cumulative carbon emissions towards the trillionth tonne. Myles R. Allen, Malte Meinshausen et. al. Nature Vol 458, 30 April 2009
  • 9. The climate change problem . . and using current proven1 fossil reserves2 takes us well over the mark. Early 2040’s ~4°C 4 2000 2012 2000-2012 ~3°C 3 1950 1999 1950-1999 1900-1949 Starting in 1750 1BP 2 1850-1899 1800-1849 Statistical Review of World Energy Current reserves of oil and gas are ~60 years each, coal ~110 years at current usage rates 1.6 trillion tonnes, with continued ti d land use change and cement production . . . . . and probably still rising into next century century.
  • 10. Current policies may slow this down, but are unlikely to solve the problem!  “We will reduce the CO2 intensity o the eco o y by 30% e educe e e s y of e economy 30%.  “By 2020, renewable energy will make up 20% of the energy supply”  “We must first improve energy efficiency, that will reduce emissions”  “We must stimulate clean energy investment”
  • 11. Carbon capture and storage is different • Carbon is returned to the “geosphere” where it came from. from • There is no geographical (emit it somewhere else) or temporal (emit it later) shift effect. effect • Even limited local action has a global benefit.
  • 12. Mountains A gas “backbone” with early and rapid deployment of CCS limits the stock Late 2040’s 2000 2012 2000-2012 1950 1999 1950-1999 1900-1949 Starting in 1750 1850-1899 1800-1849 Capped by ~2100
  • 13. Oceans CCS comes 20-30 years later with the result that the end stock is higher Late 2040’s 2000 2012 2000-2012 1950 1999 1950-1999 1900-1949 Starting in 1750 1850-1899 1800-1849 Capped by ~2110
  • 14. Emissions in 2050 are stubbornly high Neither scenario meets current 2020 or 2050 goals or 2°C but because of g CCS deployment both see emissions head to zero within this century Global CO2 Emissions, Gt per an C nnum 60 50 Mountains Oceans 40 30 1990 emissions 20 50% reduction vs. 1990 10 0 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
  • 15. CCS in the New Lens Scenarios 25 Oceans Mountains CO2 Stored, GT per an O nnum 20 15 10 5 0 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
  • 16. The big dilemma – energy technologies take a generation to get going!
  • 17. Key points on CCS development • Managing climate change means managing the ( ) cumulative emissions of CO2 (under 1 trillion tonnes) • CCS is the only technology that deals directly with the “stock” emissions issue. stock issue • Net zero emissions is an eventual “must have”. • CCS needs to come early and be rapidly deployed, gy g but like all energy technologies it will take a “generation” to really take hold. • Waiting for a high renewables energy mix creates additional carbon “stock” and additional warming.
  • 18. Disclaimer This scenarios presentation contains forward-looking statements that may affect Shell’s financial condition, results of operations, and businesses of Royal Dutch Shell. All statements other than statements of historical fact are, or may be deemed to be, forward-looking statements. F f d l ki t t t Forward-looking statements are d l ki t t t statements of future expectations that are based on management’s current expectations and assumptions and involve known and unknown risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results, performance or events to differ materially from those expressed or implied in these statements. Forward-looking statements include, among other things, statements concerning the potential exposure of Royal Dutch Shell to market risks and statements expressing management’s expectations, beliefs, estimates, forecasts, projections, and assumptions. These forward-looking statements are identified by their use of terms and phrases such as ‘‘anticipate’’, ‘believe’’, ‘‘could’’, ‘estimate’’, ‘‘expect’’, ‘‘goals’’, ‘‘intend’’, ‘‘may’’, ‘objectives’’, ‘‘outlook’’, ‘‘plan’’, ‘‘probably’’, ‘‘project’’, ‘risks’’, seek should target will phrases. ‘‘seek’’, ‘‘should’’, ‘‘target’’, ‘‘will’’, and similar terms and phrases There are a number of factors that could affect the future operations of Royal Dutch Shell and could cause those results to differ materially from those expressed in the forward-looking statements included in this scenarios book, including (without limitation):(a) i fluctuations i crude oil and natural gas; (b) li it ti ) ( ) price fl t ti in d il d t l changes in demand for Shell’s products; (c) currency fluctuations; (d) drilling and production results;(e) reserves estimates; (f) loss of market share and industry competition; (g) environmental and physical risks; (h) risks associated with the identification of suitable potential acquisition properties and targets, and successful negotiation and completion of such transactions; (i) the risk of doing business in developing countries and countries subject to international sanctions; (j) legislative, fi l i l ti fiscal, and regulatory d l d l t developments i l di l t including regulatory measures addressingclimate change; (k) economic and financial market conditions in various countries and regions; (l) political risks, including the risks of expropriation and renegotiation of the terms of contracts with governmental entities, delays or advancements in the approval of projects, and delays in the reimbursement for shared costs; and (m) changes in trading conditions. All forward-looking statements contained in this presentation are expressly qualified in their entirety by the cautionary statements contained or referred to in this section. Readers should not place undue reliance on forward-looking statements. Additional factors that may affect future results are contained in Royal Dutch Shell’s 20-F for the year ended December 31, 2012 which is available at www shell com/investor and www sec gov These factors also should be considered by the reader. Each forward-looking statement speaks only as of the date of this scenarios presentation, 15th November 2013. Neither Royal Dutch Shell nor any of its subsidiaries undertake any obligation to t publicly update or revise any f bli l d t i forwardlooking statement as a dl ki t t t result of new information, future events or other information. In light of these risks, results could differ materially from those stated, implied or inferred from the forward-looking statements contained in this scenarios presentation.
  • 19. Thank you for listening! WWW.SHELL.COM/SCENARIOS