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Global CCS Institute Meeting 20 June 2013. Presentation on Global Outlook of CCS by Juho Lipponen, Head of Carbon Capture & Storage Unit, International Energy Agency (IEA).

Global CCS Institute Meeting 20 June 2013. Presentation on Global Outlook of CCS by Juho Lipponen, Head of Carbon Capture & Storage Unit, International Energy Agency (IEA).

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    Gccsi japan members'_meeting_200613_juho-lipponen_iea Gccsi japan members'_meeting_200613_juho-lipponen_iea Presentation Transcript

    • © OECD/IEA 2010 A Global Outlook for CCS GCCSI Japan Members’ meeting Tokyo, 20 June 2013 Juho Lipponen Head of Unit, Carbon Capture and Storage International Energy Agency
    • © OECD/IEA 2010 Twenty-eight IEA member countries IEA members Accession countries (Chile and Estonia have begun the process of joining the IEA) Partner countries that attended the 2011 Ministerial Meeting Dedicated CCS Unit since 2010, launched with financial support from Australia (RET / GCCSI)
    • © OECD/IEA 2010 Outline 1. Advancing CCS remains critically important 2. CCS is ready for scale-up 3. Where do we need to be by middle of the century? 4. How do we get there?
    • © OECD/IEA 2010 Atmospheric CO2 concentration at historic high 400ppm concentration was recorded in May 2013. http://keelingcurve.ucsd.edu/
    • © OECD/IEA 2010 Record-high CO2 emissions in 2012 Annual CO2 emissions reached record high 31,6 Gt in 2012 Significant differences in world regions in 2012. WEO 2013 WEO 2013
    • © OECD/IEA 2010 Advancing CCS remains critically important (1) 2. Fossil fuels accounted for 85% of all incremental energy demand in the last decade WEO 2011 1. Energy-related CO2 emissions have doubled in the past 40 years
    • © OECD/IEA 2010 Advancing CCS remains critically important (2) 3. CCS is the only option for many energy-intensive industries 4. CCS is part of a cost- effective portfolio of technologies in any ambitious scenario
    • © OECD/IEA 2010 Advancing CCS remains critically important (3) 5. CCS can help preserve an economic value of fossil fuel reserves 6. CCS can help “unlock” emissions already locked in WEO 2013 WEO 2012
    • © OECD/IEA 2010 Advancing CCS remains critically important (3) 7. CCS can help reduce investment cost in the power sector 8. Global energy supply is today as carbon- intensive as it was in 1990 WEO 2013 IEA Energy Sector Carbon Intensity Index, ESCII
    • © OECD/IEA 2010 CCS NEEDS TO BE A SOLUTION AS OF EARLY 2020s.
    • © OECD/IEA 2010 Outline 1. Advancing CCS remains critically important 2. CCS is ready for scale-up 3. Where do we need to be by middle of the century? 4. How do we get there?
    • © OECD/IEA 2010 CCS is making progress Source: GCCSI, BNEF Projects in “operate”, “execute” and “define” phases according to GCCSI criteria.
    • © OECD/IEA 2010 CCS is making progress Source: GCCSI, BNEF Projects in “operate”, “execute” and “define” phases according to GCCSI criteria.
    • © OECD/IEA 2010 Inputs into CCS are not negligible... Source: BNEF Source: IEA Source: IEA Source: GCCSI Money spent on CCS projects globally Government pledges for CCS support R&D spending on CCS technologies by IEA countries Numbers of CCS-related patents
    • © OECD/IEA 2010 The need for project experience in industry-CCS (1) Source: Industry-CCS annex to IEA TCEP report 2013.
    • © OECD/IEA 2010 1. Commit public funding to ~10 pilot and demo-scale projects in cement, steel etc. 2. Support projects according to their contribution to knowledge (not immediate CO2 emission reductions) 3. Incorporate CCS in forward-looking industrial strategies 4. Address competitiveness concerns of sectors in global competition 5. Better exploit synergies between sectors 6. Involve all industry sectors in actions to advance CCS The need for project experience in industry-CCS (2)
    • © OECD/IEA 2010 CCS: still waiting its cue from governments 260 45-65MtCO2 stored in 2020 in a 2°C stabilisation scenario MtCO2 maximum projected capture rate in 2020
    • © OECD/IEA 2010 Outline 1. Advancing CCS remains critically important 2. CCS is ready for scale-up 3. Where do we need to be by middle of the century? 4. How do we get there?
    • © OECD/IEA 2010 By 2050: 120Gt of CO2 safely stored  2050: > 7000Mt CO2 stored pa; CCS routinely used in all applicable power and industry  2030: > 2000Mt CO2 stored pa; CCS routinely used in power and industry; ready for deployment in 2nd phase industry  2020: Several dozen large-scale projects in coal and gas power and 1st phase industry
    • © OECD/IEA 2010 By 2050, 15% of net power generation could come from CCS-equipped plants
    • © OECD/IEA 2010 Mix of CCS-equipped generation varies around the world © OECD/IEA 2011
    • © OECD/IEA 2010 Industrial applications vary widely by region
    • © OECD/IEA 2010 Where is CO2 storage needed? Note: Mass captured in GtCO2
    • © OECD/IEA 2010 Total investment in CCS: 3.6 trillion USD 0 10 20 30 40 Trillion USD CCS Other low-carbon technology  2013-2020: USD 100 bn  2020-2050: USD 3,5 trn  Economic benefit: if CCS removed from portfolio, investment cost in the power sector increases by 40% until 2050  Note: investment needs in other low-carbon energies are equally significant Additional investment requirements to reach 2DS scenario goals
    • © OECD/IEA 2010 Top-10 regions/sectors: 55% of total effort Source: IEA
    • © OECD/IEA 2010 Outline 1. Advancing CCS remains critically important 2. CCS is ready for scale-up 3. Where do we need to be by middle of the century? 4. How do we get there?
    • © OECD/IEA 2010 A pathway for wide deployment Next seven years: Creating conditions for wide deployment 2020-2030: Large-scale deployment picks up speed 2030 and beyond: CCS is mainstream
    • © OECD/IEA 2010 A comprehensive policy commitment to CCS Permitting framework Technology RD&D framework Incentive framework Long-term vision for CCS deployment Regulation for safe, effective storage Efficient resource management Prices of limits on emissions Targeted deployment incentives Demonstration funding All parts of the policy puzzle must be in place if CCS is to excel, starting with a clear vision for the future for CCS
    • © OECD/IEA 2011 Where do we need to concentrate efforts?  Introduce financial support mechanisms.  Implement policies that encourage storage exploration, characterisation and development.  Develop national law and regulation that require new base-load fossil-fuel power generation capacity to be CCS-ready.  Prove capture systems at pilot scale in industrial applications.  Implement governance frameworks that ensure safe and effective storage.  Reduce the cost of electricity from power plants equipped with capture through continued technology development.  Encourage efficient development of CO2 transport infrastructure anticipating future locations.
    • © OECD/IEA 2011 Top-ranked action for next seven years: Creating the business case  This decade is not about CO2 reductions, but about technology learning  The main policy mechanisms should provide mid-term revenue certainty 1. Direct financial support by governments for CAPEX: grants, loans, equity etc. 2. Direct support for operations: feed-in tariffs, production tax credits, certificates, portfolio standards etc. 3. Leveraging existing markets for CO2 (such as EOR) 4. Specific policy to incentivise sectors in global competition (cement, steel etc.)  Need to inspire from successful policies for renewables
    • © OECD/IEA 2011 IEA – GCCSI collaboration Strategic level  Strategic partnership IEA-GCCSI (Australian financial contribution to IEA)  Communication between top management  Strategic vision for CCS and recommendations on needed actions Sharing information  Monthly phone calls and exchanges of info Events  Joint events  Invitations to speak  Joint planning & information exchange prior to events Publications & analysis  Common papers & documents  Direct contributions to each other’s work  Commenting of drafts  Use and references to each other’s data and analysis
    • © OECD/IEA 2010 NEW IEA CCS ROADMAP LAUNCH: Tuesday 2 July
    • © OECD/IEA 2010 Thank you! juho.lipponen@iea.org +33 1 40 57 66 80 www.iea.org/ccs