CCS Role in Global Emission Reductions Bo Diczalusy IEA

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CCS: Role in Global Emission Reductions, a presentation delivered by Bo Diczfalusy, Director of Sustainable Energy Policy and Technology at the International Energy Agency (IEA), on a Tuesday Dec 6 COP 17 Institute side event. The presentation reviews the IEA’s work in CCS. It also talks about global energy demand, which is expected to double in the next 40 years. Since 2005, non OECD countries are emitting more than OECD countries. More than 30 per cent of global incremental demand is from China alone.

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CCS Role in Global Emission Reductions Bo Diczalusy IEA

  1. 1. Carbon Capture and Storage: Role in Global Emission Reductions Global CCS Institute event Durban, 6 December 2011 Bo DICZFALUSY Director, Sustainable Energy Policy and Technology International Energy Agency© OECD/IEA 2010
  2. 2. International Energy Agency IEA countries OECD countries, but not IEA members  Inter-governmental body founded in 1973, currently 28 Member Countries  Policy advice and energy security coordination  Whole energy policy spectrum and all energy technologies  Flagship publications include WEO and ETP  Host to more than 40 technology-specific networks (“Implementing Agreements” or “IAs”)  Operated independently with their own membership and financing  Includes GHG IA  Active in CCS since 2000; dedicated CCS unit created in 2010  Provides policy advice  Supports broader IEA cross-technology analysis© OECD/IEA 2010
  3. 3. Contents 1. Trends and targets in energy and emissions 2. The role of CCS 3. Recent and current IEA activity© OECD/IEA 2010
  4. 4. Global Demand x2 in 40 Years  From 6 000 Mtoe to 12 000 Mtoe  75% of the increase is from fossil fuels  Moderate increase in OECD world  Rapid demand growth outside OECD Source: IEA statistics© OECD/IEA 2010
  5. 5. Global CO2 Emissions Doubled  Global energy-related CO2 emissions have more than doubled in past 40 years, from 14 Gt to 30 Gt  Until very recently, majority of emissions in OECD countries  Since 2005, non-OECD countries emit more than OECD  Current CO2 concentration in atmosphere roughly 390 ppm© OECD/IEA 2010
  6. 6. Energy Demand Continues to Grow  Energy demand +40% by 2035 (12 000  17 000 Mtoe)  China: >30% of global incremental demand  OECD demand stagnates Source: “New Policies Scenario”, IEA World Energy Outlook 2011© OECD/IEA 2010
  7. 7. CO2 Emissions Continue to Grow  Energy-related CO2 emissions 36 Gt by 2035  Gas-related CO2 emissions grow fastest (1,5% pa), followed by coal (0,5% pa)  650 ppm CO2-eq pathway Source: “New Policies Scenario”, IEA World Energy Outlook 2011© OECD/IEA 2010
  8. 8. 2035: CO2 Emissions Shift to Asia © OECD/IEA 2010 Source: “New Policies Scenario”, IEA World Energy Outlook 2011
  9. 9. Towards a Sustainable Future  Current policies or “reference scenarios” unsustainable  Scientific evidence and policy ambitions now often target “450 ppm scenarios” (50-50 chance to keep temperature increase at ≤2C)  Critical period NOW to establish policy and develop technology Source: “New Policies Scenario”, IEA World Energy Outlook 2011© OECD/IEA 2010
  10. 10. Carbon Capture and Storage: Limited Role with Known Policies...  Only 65 GW of CCS-equipped coal-fired power capacity by 2035  Share of CCS in coal-fired power remains at 3% in 2035 (and only 1% of total power generation)  No gas-CCS  No or very limited industry-CCS© OECD/IEA 2010 Source: “New Policies Scenario”, IEA World Energy Outlook 2011
  11. 11. … But Critical in “450” Scenarios© OECD/IEA 2010
  12. 12. Can the Potential of CCS be Exploited?  3 000+ projects across the globe  3 000+ across industries: CCS not only about coal-fired power  150 Gt CO2 captured and stored© OECD/IEA 2010
  13. 13. CO2 is Captured and Stored as We Speak… Weyburn >2,3Mt Sleipner 1Mt Snohvit 0,7Mt In Salah 1,2Mt Rangely 1Mt  Five to eight (5-8) integrated large-scale projects are currently storing >5Mt CO2 per year  Another six (6) projects under construction  Several smaller-scale pilot installations across the globe  Applied R&D by government, industry and research community  Academic research into capture, transport and storage technologies and related sciences© OECD/IEA 2010
  14. 14. … and More is Planned60 other integrated large-scale projects in various stages of development Source: © OECD/IEA 2010
  15. 15. CCS Cuts Across Various Sectors Industrial Power sector applications CCS Transport: Hydrocarbon biofuel extraction: EOR production© OECD/IEA 2010
  16. 16. Challenges Remain for CCS  Firm decisions to address climate change  Understanding of CCS and recognition of its role  CCS in industry and biomass Setting strategic policy  Existing public  CAPEX, OPEX drivers support 25-35 bn USD globally  Market dynamics, incl.  Need to impact of Reducing Providing costs of incentive mobilise cheap gas technology mechanisms 5 trillion USD  Industrial 2010-2050 deployment  OECD – non-OECD bottlenecks  Incentive policy  Infrastructure pathways planning and coordination Understanding Laws & storage regulations  Knowledge on storage capacity  OECD vs. non-OECD countries  Time required for storage site development  International legal issues e.g.,  Long-term liability London Protocol and OSPAR  Public acceptance© OECD/IEA 2010
  17. 17. A long-term signal to investors? The case for clean-tech support: • Most low-CO2 technologies are not cost-competitive • But should account for vast majority of supply by 2011 2050 (renewables, CCS, nuclear) to cut CO2 • Today’s CO2 price – where it applies – is too low • Necessary step: targeted support for cost reductions Bridge in key technologies • Rising CO2 cost + lower unit cost of low-CO2 technology ensure full competitiveness 2030© OECD/IEA 2010
  18. 18. Summing Up  Global energy demand and emissions continue to grow  Role of CCS is critical  This potential WON’T be realised without designated policies  This potential MAY be realised, if ambitious policies and incentives exist … and other challenges are overcome  Delaying CCS is a very costly option© OECD/IEA 2010
  19. 19. Thank you! bo.diczfalusy@iea.org© OECD/IEA 2010
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