A CCS Roadmap for Romania, Bellona

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A CCS Roadmap for Romania, Bellona

  1. 1. OUR FUTURE IS CARBON NEGATIVE A CCS Roadmap for Romania
  2. 2. The Bellona Foundation and CCS • 1990s: initial CCS discussions with Norwegian research and industry • 2005: one of the founders of ZEP • 2008: Bellona Scenario shows CCS crucial to combat climate change • 2007-09: influencing EU energy & climate legislation; NER 300 funding • 2009: BEST founded; Member State mapping, Romania central country • 2011: EU Energy Roadmap 2050 • 2010-12: BEST Country Roadmaps
  3. 3. CCS & ROMANIA Impending Energy Gap • Capacity retirement • Diverse Capacity • Coal + Lignite • Fossil Gas • Renewable • Nuclear CO2 Storage Potential • 7.5 Gt (EU GeoCapacity) • 18 Gt (GeoEcoMar) Depleted Oil & Gas Reservoirs • 490 Mt (EU GeoCapacity) • 4 Gt (GeoEcoMar) • Long history of hydrocarbon production Enhanced Oil Recovery • CO2 EOR provides revenue • Reuse of suitable infrastructure • Onshore reduces costs and risks Infrastructure • Extensive gas pipeline network • Reuse of wells where suitable
  4. 4. KEY PARAMETERS Parameter 2010 2030 2050 EUA Price (€) 10 (10/10) 50 (25/75) 90 (45/135) Lignite Emission Factor (tonnes CO2/TJ) 112,2 - - Coal Emissions Factor (tonnes CO2/TJ) 94,9 - - Natural Gas Emission Factor (tonnes 56,1 - - CO2/TJ) Biomass Emission Factor (tonnes 109,6 - - CO2/TJ) Lignite Price (€/GJ) 1.52 (1.00/4.00) - - Coal Price (€/GJ) 2.19 (1.00/4.00) - - Natural Gas Price (€/GJ) 5.50 (2.50/8.00) - - Biomass Price (€/GJ) 2,19 - - New Coal Plant efficiency (%) 45 50 50 New Lignite Plant Efficiency (%) 40 45 45 New Natural Gas Plant Efficiency (%) 60 60 60 Energy Penalty (pp) Pulverised Coal 11 (16) 8 (12) 8 (12) Oxycombustion 12 (18) 8 (12) 8 (12) IGCC 13 (20) 4 (6) 4 (6) NGCC 8 (13) 7 (11) 7 (11) Capture Efficiency (%) 95 (85) 95 (85) 95 (85) Additional Capital Cost (Thousand €/MW) Pulverised Coal 952 (533/1202) 571 (400/1250) 391 (324/1013) Oxycombustion 1500 (557/2071) 714 (371/1429) 579 (301/1157) IGCC 905 (457/1214) 571 (343/1214) 463 (278/984) NGCC 440 (229/583) 250 (171/441) 203 (139/434) Cost of Capital (% per year) 10 (5/15) 10 (5/15) 10 (5/15) Nominal Plant Lifetime (years) 30 30 30 Co-firing Capital Costs (Thousand 161 129 104 €/MW) Transport Cost (€/tonne) 1.5 (0.5/4) 1.5 (0.5/4) 1.5 (0.5/4) Storage Cost (€/tonne) 4 (1/12) 4 (1/12) 4 (1/12) Currency Conversion (USD/EUR) 1,4 1,4 1,4
  5. 5. MODELLING THE FUTURE POWER SECTOR New Coal A 2030 Caveat: Nuclear A 2030 No modelling of renewables and energy Nuclear B 2035 efficiency – taken from draft Romanian Energy Plan 2011-2035 Good potential for RES, but CCS will New Coal A 2030 anyway be needed to ensure baseload – and for other industries (also covered in the New Coal B 2030 BEST Roadmap) New Coal C 2035
  6. 6. MODELLING CCS DEPLOYMENT
  7. 7. SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS: Total costs avoided by applying CCS All High Costs CCS cost-saving • Under all but the most unfavourable values • CCS necessary in both energy trajectories
  8. 8. TOTAL COSTS OF BIOMASS CO-FIRING Solid biomass availability for energy
  9. 9. BIO-CCS & CARBON NEGATIVE
  10. 10. BIOFUEL POTENTIAL • Largest potential for sustainable biofuels production in the EU • Low-cost capture options – carbon-negative fuels • Investments under way • Tarom/Airbus/Honeywell/Camelina Company Espana
  11. 11. The message is simple but clear: CCS will be necessary to avoid soaringenergy prices in Romania • Fossil energy production will become much cheaper with CCS than without CCS • Combined with biomass co-firing, CCS can even make buying CO2 quotas completely unnecessary for the Romanian power sector • Though the EUA price is currently very low, the European Commission will soon table options for strengthening the EU ETS and rise the price to ensure emission reductions
  12. 12. RECOMMENDATIONS • Support Getica • CCS readiness requirements for all new thermal generation • Further refine and reassess CO2 storage legislation • Accelerate near-term commercial CCS • Enhanced Oil Recovery (EOR) • Comprehensively characterise available CO2 storage capacity • Ensuring sufficient storage capacity be available by 2020 • Produce detailed assessments of depleted and tail-end hydrocarbon fields available for CO2 storage • A National Programme addressing the timing and potential re-use of pipelines or corridors as well as injection wells • Electricity market reform • Reward dependable low carbon generation • Define CCS clusters
  13. 13. BEST+ ROADMAPS Vă mulţumesc pentru atenţie! www.bellona.org/CCS jonas@bellona.org

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