This document discusses pathways toward a sustainable future. It outlines several megatrends such as rising populations, increasing life expectancy, and shifting global economic power. Issues covered include resource constraints, climate change, water scarcity, and environmental degradation. A vision for 2050 aims to double agricultural output and freshwater supply while halving carbon emissions. Realizing this will require widespread adoption of sustainability best practices and technologies through collaboration between business, governments, and society. Self-organization and global connectivity may help proliferate affordable transformations toward a more sustainable world.

1. FROM HERE TO THERE
Pathways Toward a Sustainable Future
Mohammad Zaidi
9 September 2013

2. Sustainability and the Role of Business:
A collaborative effort involving 29 global companies representing 14 industries

3. Megatrends: growth, inertia, opportunities
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
1950 1975
Life expectancy (years)
2000 2025 2050
The growing world population is increasingly urban The global middle class is rapidly expanding
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
10,000
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Population in millions
Life expectancy by region – 1950-­2050
People, worldwide, are living longer
0
2 0 0 5 2 0 3 0
2
4
6
8
1 0
1 2
1 4
1 6
4 0 0 m illio n
1 .2 b illio n
Percent of global population
Source: UNDP, OECD, World Bank, WBCSD
0
C
hinaU
nited States
India
Brazil
M
exico
R
ussia
Indonesia
Japan
U
nited Kingdom
G
erm
any
10,000
20,000
30,000
GDP 2006 US$ bn
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
Global economic power is shifting
Top 10 economies by GDP in 2050

4. Supply and demand: risks & challanges
Business As Usual Will Require
Resources of 2.3 Planets by 2050
1970
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
GtCO2
eq
GHG emissions by regions
Greenhouse gas emissions keep rising
0
2030
2005
2030
2005
2030
2005
500 1,000 1,500 2,000
Millions of people
2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000
People living in areas of water stress by level of stress
Environmental degradation jeopardizes people’s
quality of life and economy
An aging population will stress healthcare &
income distribution
World population by age (millions)
0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0
World average biocapacity per person in 2006
World average biocapacity per person in 1961
UNDP threshold for high human development
High human development
within the Earth’s limits
2
4
6
8
10
12
Ecological Footprint (global hectares per person)
United Nations Human Development Index
African countries
Asian countries
European countries
Latin American and
Caribbean countries
North American countries
Oceanian countries
Source: Global Footprint Network, UNDP, OECD, World Bank, WBCSD

5. The Vision for 2050

6. "Must – Haves" for a Sustainable 2050
-­ A selected set of 40 measures for ten key sectors
Doubling of Agricultural output without increasing the amount of land or water used. Cropland efficiency
for cereal production to double in Africa.
Halting deforestation. 75% of fiber for paper and packaging to be supplied by planted forests ( as
opposed to natural forests).
Freshwater supply to double in Asia-­pacific and Africa.
Halving carbon emissions worldwide ( from 2005 baseline) by 2050 with GHG emissions peaking in
2020. This leads to containing average global temperature rise to 2 deg C.
Delivering a 5X improvement in use of resources and materials.
Incorporating the cost of externalities , starting with carbon, ecosystem services and water.
Education to shift fertility rates to around replacement levels.

7. Pathways to Vision: 350 Milestones on 10 Tracks:
energy, buildings, materials, mobility, economy, people governance,
forests, agriculture, ecosystems

8. Sustainability at Alcoa
PRODUCTION of Aluminum:
GHG emissions reduction – 44% since 1990
Inert anode in development – zero CO2 emissions from Smelter
Carbon capture technology.
Waste products for water purification.
Continuous casting of sheet with 60-­70 % less footprint.
APPLICATIONS of Aluminum:
Light weighting of transport sector ( 6-­10% fuel efficiency): From Airplanes to Cars to Trucks
Note: 10% fuel efficiency enables 75 billion gallons of annual fuel savings and 600 million MT of CO2
reduction across all transportation segments, globally)
Buildings : Eco-­clean and smog reduction. 100,000 sq.ft façade = 80 trees
Consumer Electronics: Aesthetics and thermal management
RECYCLING of Aluminum:
Cans, Cars, Building products, consumer electronics
Infinitely recyclable: 75% of all aluminum produced in past 120 years is still in use. Uses 95% less
energy and produces 95% less GHG than primary aluminum.

9. Pathways to a Sustainable Future
1. Proliferation of Best Practices and Efficiencies.
1. Affordable Transformations and their global deployment
Generally driven by top-­down organizational structures

10. Energy
Water
Forestry
Metals
Health & education
Agriculture & Food
Annual value in 2050 at constant 2008 prices
US$ trillion
0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4
Sustainability related business opportunity :
From $ 1 trillion / yr. in 2020 to $6.2 trillion/ yr. in 2050
Source: PwC estimates drawing on data from IEA, OECD and the World Bank

11. Afina
Braemar Portfolio
Lighting Efficiency / Demand Response Renewable Fuels & Chemicals
Storage Fossil Fuels Other

12. Conclusions
1. Global sustainability challenges will become the key
strategic drivers for business and innovation.
2. Technology, Business innovation and global collaborations
can create pathways to a sustainable world.
3. Business must work closely with governments and society
worldwide to transform markets, prices and competition.
4. Vision 2050 lays out the pathways and outlines vast new
business opportunities -­ US$ 6 -­ 10 trillion annually.
We can achieve the Vision: 9 billion people living
well, within the means of 1 planet

13. Hierarchy vs. Network
Global
Connectivity
Low cost
Sensing and
‘Big data’
Computing
Affordable
Trans-­
formations
Gaming
Crowd-­
Funding

14. Pathways to a Sustainable Future
1. Proliferation of Best Practices and Efficiencies.
1. Affordable Transformations and their global deployment
2. Self Organization

15. The Power of Self-­Organization