The Future Of Social Media Presentation by Futurist Gerd Leonhard Blogres Slovenia June 2008

www.mediafuturist.com Gerd Leonhard gerd@mediafuturist.com www.mediafuturist.com The Future of Social Media (# 1 / Friday): From Commerce to People to... People Commerce? Friday, June 20, 2008 1

Digital Media Sharing & the www.mediafuturist.com Social Web: We are only at the Beginning! The rest of this Iceberg will emerge much quicker than you may think Friday, June 20, 2008 2

www.mediafuturist.com Friday, June 20, 2008 3

Key Trends www.mediafuturist.com 1. All that can goes digital... very fast 2. All that can connect, will 3. Storage is becoming almost free 4. Bandwidth is becoming cheaper all the time 5. Most ‘computing’ goes mobile 6. Devices become “Me” i.e. personal (invisible technology) 7. Media goes ‘social’ 8. Content will “feel like free” (i.e. bundled & flat-rated) 9. ‘Old’ style Advertising & Marketing won’t work here! Friday, June 20, 2008 4

TV versus the Internet www.mediafuturist.com Friday, June 20, 2008 5

The Attention Surplus that was eaten www.mediafuturist.com up by TV is now moving to the web www.searchviews.com Time and attention for the Web comes from the Cognitive Surplus TV has been masking for 50 years (Clay Shirky) Friday, June 20, 2008 6

Social Media tops the Charts www.mediafuturist.com Friday, June 20, 2008 7

www.mediafuturist.com Massive Disruption by The People Formerly Known as Consumers Friday, June 20, 2008 8

www.mediafuturist.com Thirty-eight percent of the video streamed on the Web http://www.forbes.com/technology/forbes/2008/0616/050.html now comes from YouTube (ComScore) YouTube will upload 600 years' worth of video this year 10 hours of video uploaded every 10 seconds An ad on the YouTube home page now costs $175,000 a day Friday, June 20, 2008 9

www.mediafuturist.com Social Networks: The new Radio +TV Friendster Facebook Myspace Cyworld Mixi QQ... are Friday, June 20, 2008 BROADCASTERS 10

www.mediafuturist.com Source: Don Tapscott Wikinomics Blog Friday, June 20, 2008 11

www.mediafuturist.com (Co)Creating -Remixing - Cutting & Pasting - Bookmarking - Sharing - Connecting .... Consuming? Friday, June 20, 2008 13

www.mediafuturist.com First, let’s forget the word ‘Consumer’ • It’s a 2-way conversation now! • Happy users will now do some of the marketing for you • Interested users now supply ideas and ‘content’, too: engaged users now provide images, videos, text, music... • Loyal users now want to have conversations with you • The Internet is finally becoming a ‘social’ and cultural web where Brands that influence Culture do better • In 2-3 years, there will be no more offline or online •The kids are now the Authorities! Friday, June 20, 2008 15

www.mediafuturist.com Everything is switching to PULL Friday, June 20, 2008 16

www.mediafuturist.com Having Pull means: Connect. Share. Commune. Friday, June 20, 2008 17

Not www.mediafuturist.com But Trust Friday, June 20, 2008 18

www.mediafuturist.com Now, what IS Content? Videos, Audio, Music, Text, Images... and now: The DATA that is around it i.e Meta Content Friday, June 20, 2008 19

The Users become content, too... www.mediafuturist.com Friday, June 20, 2008 20

www.mediafuturist.com The key to the Future of Advertising Explicit Permission to use Attention Data & Clickstream-Data in return for Content (Media & Entertainment) and Services Friday, June 20, 2008 22

Aggregation is a huge opportunity www.mediafuturist.com Friday, June 20, 2008 23

www.mediafuturist.com So let’s talk about Control Friday, June 20, 2008 24

www.mediafuturist.com ol t r o n C “Choice not Control” Friday, June 20, 2008 25

We urgently need to get used to www.mediafuturist.com Having Less Control TRUST Conversation Merit Friday, June 20, 2008 26

Goodbye ‘Control’ www.mediafuturist.com Friday, June 20, 2008 27

www.mediafuturist.com You can’t force total control anymore A.P. vice president Jim Kennedy says they will issue guidelines telling bloggers what is acceptable and what isnʼt, over and above what the law says is acceptable. They will “attempt to deﬁne clear standards as to how much of its articles and broadcasts bloggers and Web sites can excerpt without infringing on The A.P.ʼs copyright.” The A.P. doesnʼt get to make itʼs own rules around how its content is used, if those rules are stricter than the law allows. So even thought they say they are making these new guidelines in the spirit of cooperation, itʼs clear that, like the RIAA and MPAA, they are trying to claw their way to a set of property rights that donʼt exist today and that they are not legally entitled to. So hereʼs our new policy on A.P. stories: they donʼt exist. We donʼt see them, we donʼt quote them, we donʼt link to them. Theyʼre banned until they abandon this new strategy Friday, June 20, 2008 28

The New York Times Example www.mediafuturist.com The paid wall went down - traffic went up. And then? Openness forces you to be more inventive Friday, June 20, 2008 30

www.mediafuturist.com Your opportunity as a Brand Provide “Choice” - not Control Provide Real Meaning & Context - not sheer Volume Provide Sharing Platforms - not Walls Friday, June 20, 2008 31

www.mediafuturist.com Many traditional roles will be up for discussion Friday, June 20, 2008 32

www.mediafuturist.com And a lot will depend....Culture ... UI! Friday, June 20, 2008 33

Some to-do’s... www.mediafuturist.com • Prepare for the digital flood is coming - now is a good time to stake out your role • Pretend to be 16 again - dive in! Get wet before learning how to swim. • Reinvent and disrupt your company before you are re-invented by others • If you own content: participate or be participated Friday, June 20, 2008 34

4.5 Billion next year. www.mediafuturist.com Friday, June 20, 2008 35

www.mediafuturist.com The (smart) phone is the first real personal medium Friday, June 20, 2008 36

www.mediafuturist.com A real concern: Privacy Friday, June 20, 2008 37

www.mediafuturist.com Because the Future of Advertising is solidly dependent on getting real information from the Users- voluntarily Friday, June 20, 2008 38

www.mediafuturist.com Imagine: You could find people that make a 95% match for your product or service, and that have agreed to pay attention They would be interested in hearing from you, and open to discussing your product or service They would tell others about your product and transport your message onward, on your behalf Markets could be Conversations! Friday, June 20, 2008 39

www.mediafuturist.com We are heading into a Broadband Culture Friday, June 20, 2008 40

www.mediafuturist.com Brands that influence Culture get Attention Friday, June 20, 2008 41

Media... www.mediafuturist.com Narrowband Broadband Linear B Interactive O Monologs T Conversations H Advertising will Ads = Content Professional Creators C User & ‘Usator’ Content O Pay with cash - Pay with attention E Push Marketing X Pull & Attract by Merit I S Own & restrict T Share Friday, June 20, 2008 42

www.mediafuturist.com Redefining ‘Advertising’ • Offline and in traditional media, people are skipping and avoiding ads everywhere (TV); print ad reach is declining, radio stagnates • Online, people’s attention is very very hard to get (and getting worse) ~ the Attention Deficit Trend is a real challenge • The web is essentially forcing us to reinvent advertising • We must can come up with Ads that provide VALUE, RELEVANCE, CONTEXT Friday, June 20, 2008 43

Push Marketing is dying. www.mediafuturist.com Everything is converting to Pull. Friday, June 20, 2008 44

www.mediafuturist.com Marketing 2.0: Listen - Broadcast - Pull 1 3 2 Friday, June 20, 2008 45

www.mediafuturist.com Imagine: an instant Micro Feed to the ‘People formerly known as Consumers’ twitter.com/gleonhard twitter.com/dailywisdoms Friday, June 20, 2008 46

www.mediafuturist.com There are major issues such as Privacy... but: The potential evils of an Open Network - of ‘Too Much Freedom’ - will always pale beside those of a Closed, Controlled and Authoritarian Network Friday, June 20, 2008 47

www.mediafuturist.com Creativity Is The Most Powerful Force [In Business] *DDB Thanks for listening! Gerd Leonhard gerd@mediafuturist.com www.mediafuturist.com Friday, June 20, 2008 48

The Future Of Social Media Presentation by Futurist Gerd Leonhard Blogres Slovenia June 2008

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