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The future of music: creators, consumers, and the in-betweens (aka industry)
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The future of music: creators, consumers, and the in-betweens (aka industry)

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This is a version of the slides I presented at a talk I at the SKAP / DFAM event in Stockholm, Nov 28, 2013 see …

This is a version of the slides I presented at a talk I at the SKAP / DFAM event in Stockholm, Nov 28, 2013 see http://www.futuristgerd.com/2013/11/28/my-presentation-at-dafm-skap-event-in-stockholm-today-pdf-a-futuristic-outlook-on-the-creator-consumer-the-business-in-between/

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  • 1. FuturistGerd.com @gleonhard A futuristic outlook on the creator, consumer & the business in between
  • 2. Most of what I am about to share with you is actually good news… Photo by Dr Case - http://flic.kr/p/5fiGgf Photo by Michael Cordedda - http://flic.kr/p/9cDmTe
  • 3. Music: is Sweden (and Scandinavia) showing us the future?
  • 4. E-M-P-O-W-E-R-M-E-N-T
  • 5. Digitization ☯ Music Creators
  • 6. @gleonhard Global Transformation driven by Digitization: When Products become Services and Experiences, the creator becomes even more crucial Product Service Experience
  • 7. All media is shifting from protection to engagement Photo by WallStreet Journal.com
  • 8. Maybe this is a good time to… rights licensing across Europe? @gleonhard
  • 9. Disembodiment of Media @gleonhard
  • 10. The rapid disembodiment of music will force us to create a collective, EU-wide solution
  • 11. Copying ☯ Listening @gleonhard
  • 12. … the incarnation of this trend: mobile!
  • 13. Value Axis The inevitable result of digitization: lower per-unit revenues - Offensive Innovation is crucial Potential ‘Digital Audience’ Revenue per 'Unit' 100 75 50 CD & Vinyl iTunes 25 Spotify 0 Pandora Youtube* @gleonhard
  • 14. Music is not unique in this: massive consumer empowerment’s inevitable consequence is price reduction @gleonhard
  • 15. As distribution becomes abundant, new things become scarce Abundance of ways to ‘get music’ New Scarcities: Attention Brand Relevance Context Timeliness Embodiment…
  • 16. The Music Industry Curse: Ego Photo by Homies In Heaven - http://flic.kr/p/d6Ff2C
  • 17. Industrial & Mechanical ☯ Digital & Exponential Controlling Distribution ☯ Monetizing Attention Largely monopolistic EGOsystems ☯ Collective ECOsystems
  • 18. “The greatest danger in times of turbulence is not the turbulence, itself, but to act with yesterday’s logic” *Peter Drucker http://bostinno.streetwise.co/2012/08/27/pirating-music-kill-a-horse-instead-7-crimes-not-as-bad-as-illegally-downloading-music/
  • 19. Many new value generatives i.e. a ‘Royal Family’ http://www.zimbio.com/pictures/APDwKZ3i-RJ/Nobel+Prize+Award+Ceremony+2008/8XVWQBpueY7/King+Carl+Gustaf+XVI
  • 20. Digital Money is a certain future: not if butabout where…WHO No longer about distribution but when, attention
  • 21. In large, hardwaredominated markets (US, UK, Germany etc), ‘fake ownership’ of music used to work - but fast decline is certain!
  • 22. There is no long-term mass market for digital single downloads but mobile music and download-HD-to-keep as a premium product has great potential !
  • 23. Fake Scarcity is misleading both the artists and the consumers
  • 24. Managed dissatisfaction is not a sustainable business model *Reed Hastings, Netflix http://evolver.fm/2013/07/23/paid-music-downloads-are-declining-but-why/ $ $ “Managed Dissatisfaction ” Image via Popsci.com
  • 25. 43 Million subscribers in 23 countries: be irresistible!
  • 26. Distribution as a key revenue driver or as competitive advantage is a ‘burning platform’ Image of BP platform via US Coast Guard
  • 27. Distribution as a key revenue driver or as Brand & Audience is a ‘burning platform’ competitive advantage Image of BP platform via US Coast Guard
  • 28. I am happy to pay cash (or data i.e. attention) for highly personalized, timely, social, meaningful, relevant, high-resolution content but it must be on 100% irresistible terms: simple, easy, fair
  • 29. The message is clear: consumers want cheap, bundled or ‘feels like free’ access first, and will only then consider going further 2010 http://musicbusinessresearch.wordpress.com/2013/10/18/is-streaming-the-next-big-thing-what-consumers-want/
  • 30. RYTHING ATS EVE EE BE FR UTION IS DISTRIB OLLING CONTR SENTIAL ES EVANCE ST-REL LUE-TRU VA ERVICE TEXT-S CON EPING AND KE RNING EA ENTIAL IS ESS NTION ATTE
  • 31. The ‘forced evolution’ of music Sell copies Sell Premiums License Access
  • 32. Yes, we already have a model for this but the legal structure of music commerce must be transformed urgently
  • 33. A €10 Billion recorded music market in Europe? 1€ per Internet user in Europe / month for basic streaming & offline service Approx. 600 Million Internet users in Europe x 12 = 7.2 Billion per year This would be 40% of current global recorded music earnings in 2012 The 1 € could easily be paid for by telcos / ISPs / portals (advertising) Up-selling to 10+ premiums could yield another 30-50% revenues Add another 400 Million mobile phone users…
  • 34. Music is indispensable to the next generation media powerhouses …and these guys already see music as disembodied, mobile, cloudbased ‘added value’ …+++
  • 35. Can Europe create a new digital music Ecosystem?
  • 36. Music industry reset: think ‘Biosphere’ not ‘Myosphere’
  • 37. COLLABORATE - NOW OR GET SQUASHED BY FAST INNOVATORS
  • 38. We are at a pivotal point
  • 39. The CD (physical media) is quickly disappearing in the rearview mirror: (em)brace ‘Managed dissatisfaction’ (such as iTunes) won’t make the pie bigger Beyond a doubt, streaming and ‘access’ is the new ownership: new laws needed! ‘Access’ may result in a 90% reduced ‘unit price’ but has x1000 audience We need digital music licenses that enable Billions of users to contribute $€£ Many new premiums can be offered on-top of ‘feels-like-free access’ The new (old:) ‘embodiment’ of music is the artist and the brand, themselves Social media, video, mobile (SoViMo) are huge opportunities: get engaged! In the EU, we need offensive innovation, real leadership and hyper-collaboration
  • 40. Thanks for your time and attention... Now, let’s talk!