Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist
The Future of Media
and Content
Presentation at TIME 2008 December 2, 2008
Istanbul, Turkey
Gerd Leonhard
www.mediafuturist.com

Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist
Content
Was
Legislation
Telecom Government
Regulation

Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist
Legislation
Government
Regulation
Will be...
The
Users
fka Consumers
Telecom Content

Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist
Google China President Kai Fu Lee:
Mutual Interest, rather than Monopoly,
is the key to sustainable growth

Mutual Interest
Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist
- the Keyword

Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist
3G Wireless Futures
Ability to connect * and INTERACT
Ability to share EVERYTHING
Hunger for content
Without 3G
With 3 G
+ Wifi / Wimax

Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist
The difference between dial-up, fixed
and low-bandwidth Internet and
high-speed, mobile Internet is even
bigger than going from offline to
online, to begin with.
100 : 1

Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist
The challenge: New Models!
Content Consumption (all)
Revenue Potential
Success with Traditional Content Models
Was Is 2 years 5 years

Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist
A very serious change - and huge opportunity!
Copy Economy
Access / Usage /
Sharing Economy

Sharing is the key driver
Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist

Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist
But this is not about technology...
The Age of Collaboration
Emerging cultural practices
New business models

Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist
Turkey Internet Penetration
Turkey Mobile Penetration
Cost of Internet Access Cost of Storage Skills Required
225%
150%
120%
90%
60%
37%
Today 2-3 years 5-7 years

Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist
Cost of Internet Access Cost of Storage Skills Required
Today 2-3 years 5-7 year
Sharing Co-Creation

Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist
The Digital Natives: our future and the new $$$$

Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist
Truly connected means...
We can find out ...anything
We decide who gets to market to us
Niches are the new hits
We find out we can actually create things, too!
We collaborate to get very large jobs done, together
We collaborate cross-time/border/nation/firm
We can serve the world (and vice versa)

Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist
The Future: connecting the users is the key to success

Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist
The crisis of the Content Business
• Mere copies of content are de-facto ‘free’
• The Internet is a giant copy machine - and it’s rapidly
growing in size and reach (and now: mobile!)
• Selling copies is a rapidly declining business model
(Music, DVDs, Magazines, Newspapers...)
• Broadband culture drives further commodization
• What used to be paid for is now often free
• Digital revenues are not nearly enough to make up for
the loss of physical sales (1:5 ratio!)
• Developing countries have no pay-by-unit tradition
• There is more content consumption than ever before -
but where is the ‘new money’?

Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist
The lesson:
You’ll have to get
wet if you want to
learn
how to
swim.

Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist
The new ways of making money
with Content are going to be quite
unlike the traditional ways

Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist
Freemium

Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist
The new ways of making money with
Communications are going to be
drastically expanded from the
traditional ways

Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist
The next SMS
is
a) Content
b) Social
Communication
around Content
(Social Media)

Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist
The new ways of
Advertising are
going to be totally
unlike the traditional
ways

Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist
Next Generation Advertising

Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist
Drastic role changes are imminent.
Experience Platform
Service Pipe
Content Pipe
Data
Pipe

Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist
Communications
Advertising Content

Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist
We
cannot
wall-in our
Content in this future

Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist
We
cannot
generate enough
new values without Content

Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist
Disruption
Reinvention

The Copyright Dilemma
Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist
Copy

The Copyright Dilemma
Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist
Right

Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist
Right ... for the law - wrong for the $$

Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist
• Is the quest for Control realistic?
• Will it make Money?
• Will it be fair and equitable?
• Will it create a Culture & Society
in which we will want to live in?

Stop this?
Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist

Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist
The opportunity

Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist
The past: making your customers angry

Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist

The Digital Music Flat Rate is inevitable
Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist
~1910
+ =
+
=
~2009?

The logic
Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist
‣ Music is included in network access
‣ Fees are paid but cross-subsidized
‣ Music is cost-neutral to Networks
‣ User pays ‘with attention’ or cash
‣ Most uses will ‘will like free’
‣ Data is shared with content owners
‣ Multiple upsell options can unfold
‣ Rightholders get paid for each use

Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist
The new ecosystem: Example: Music
Extra Community Services
Video, Games, Interactive
Preferred access (fans)
Live Recordings on-demand
Merchandising
High-definition offerings
Bundled Music, Feels Like Free, Unlimited, no DRM,
Streams & Downloads
* followed by other Content!

Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist
Games > Music > Film / TV > Books >>
Command & Control
becomes
Coordinate & Cultivate
*Thomas Malone “The Future of Work”

Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist
More access = More use of Content

Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist
http://flickr.com/photos/jan1020/

Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist
How to make the users happy

Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist
In a networked culture,
a world of NO permission
is a world of NO $

Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist
Average Available Time Available Choices Average Available Attention
Attention, Choice & Curation Trends (Gerd Leonhard)
100%
75%
50%
25%
0%
Was Is Soon The Future

Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist
Amount of Input Need for Selection, Filtering & Curation
Need for Community of Content
Attention, Choice & Curation Trends (Gerd Leonhard)
100%
75%
50%
25%
0%
Was Is Soon The Future

Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist
It’s not the free copy that
counts - it’s
everything
around it!

Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist
Instead of Control
http://flickr.com/photos/foxwillow/

Search IS Media.
Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist
Media is Social.
Search is Social.

Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist
Selling content: finding new money sources
Next Generation Advertising Freemium
Flat Rates & Bundles New Generatives
Sell Copies *Take 2 3rd party pays (cross subsidies)
20% 20%
10%
15%
35%

Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist
Value of ‘a Copy’ Value of CONTEXT
Value of Meta-Content Value of Experiences
Value Trends (by Gerd Leonhard)
Value of Context
100%
Value of Experience
Value of Meta-Content
75%
50%
25%
Value of ‘a Copy’
0%
Was Is Soon The Future

Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist
New Value: Meta-Content
*aka Data
• User ratings & recommendations
• User reviews
• User tagging and annotating
• User bookmarking
• User sharing / forwarding
• User editing / remixing
• User republishing

The new Content Economy: the User is a major force
Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist

Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist
P e r m i s s i o n .
E n g a g e m e n t .
C o n v e r s a t i o n .
T h e F u t u r e .

Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist
The Future of Content: Attention-based Income Explodes
Copy Based Revenues
Attention Based Revenues
Was Is Soon Near Future Mid-term Future

Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist
• Give Permission - and collect
revenue shares

Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist
Kevin Kelly @ kk.org: When an offering becomes commoditized
the solution is to offer valuable intangibles:
1. Immediacy - priority access, immediate delivery
2. Personalization - tailored just for you... ʻMeCastʼ
3. Interpretation & Filtering - support and guidance
4. Authenticity - making sure itʼs the real thing
5. Accessibility - wherever, whenever, however
6. Embodiment, Experience & Packaging
7. Community (i.e. the Tribes)
8. Findability & Curation

Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist
To summarize
Telecom Content

Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist
Thanks for listening!
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