The Future Of Media And Content Gerd Leonhard at TIME 08 Istanbul
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The Future Of Media And Content Gerd Leonhard at TIME 08 Istanbul

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My presentation at the 2008 TIME conference in Istanbul, Turkey (Dec 2, 08): The Future of Content and Media. Topics include:...

My presentation at the 2008 TIME conference in Istanbul, Turkey (Dec 2, 08): The Future of Content and Media. Topics include:
* Why telecoms and content owners have to work together to develop a new content business model (and what it could look like)
* The consequences of 3G- and Wimax- powered mobility on the content industries
* How Advertising 2.0 and the future of content are intertwined, and what role a new kind of advertising approach could play in content commerce
* How the traditional, western 'copy economy' is shifting to the access, service & sharing economy, and what the corresponding new business models could look like
* Why the flat rate for music is the solution for the current conumdrum, what it means, and how it could work
* Why we cannot succeed by focusing on Control as the main factor of content monetization - and what else could be done, instead! More at http://tinyurl.com/6fa3t8

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  • 1. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist The Future of Media and Content Presentation at TIME 2008 December 2, 2008 Istanbul, Turkey Gerd Leonhard www.mediafuturist.com
  • 2. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist Content Was Legislation Telecom Government Regulation
  • 3. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist Legislation Government Regulation Will be... The Users fka Consumers Telecom Content
  • 4. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist Google China President Kai Fu Lee: Mutual Interest, rather than Monopoly, is the key to sustainable growth
  • 5. Mutual Interest Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist - the Keyword
  • 6. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist 3G Wireless Futures Ability to connect * and INTERACT Ability to share EVERYTHING Hunger for content Without 3G With 3 G + Wifi / Wimax
  • 7. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist The difference between dial-up, fixed and low-bandwidth Internet and high-speed, mobile Internet is even bigger than going from offline to online, to begin with. 100 : 1
  • 8. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist The challenge: New Models! Content Consumption (all) Revenue Potential Success with Traditional Content Models Was Is 2 years 5 years
  • 9. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist A very serious change - and huge opportunity! Copy Economy Access / Usage / Sharing Economy
  • 10. Sharing is the key driver Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist
  • 11. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist But this is not about technology... The Age of Collaboration Emerging cultural practices New business models
  • 12. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist Turkey Internet Penetration Turkey Mobile Penetration Cost of Internet Access Cost of Storage Skills Required 225% 150% 120% 90% 60% 37% Today 2-3 years 5-7 years
  • 13. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist Cost of Internet Access Cost of Storage Skills Required Today 2-3 years 5-7 year Sharing Co-Creation
  • 14. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist The Digital Natives: our future and the new $$$$
  • 15. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist Truly connected means... We can find out ...anything We decide who gets to market to us Niches are the new hits We find out we can actually create things, too! We collaborate to get very large jobs done, together We collaborate cross-time/border/nation/firm We can serve the world (and vice versa)
  • 16. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist The Future: connecting the users is the key to success
  • 17. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist The crisis of the Content Business • Mere copies of content are de-facto ‘free’ • The Internet is a giant copy machine - and it’s rapidly growing in size and reach (and now: mobile!) • Selling copies is a rapidly declining business model (Music, DVDs, Magazines, Newspapers...) • Broadband culture drives further commodization • What used to be paid for is now often free • Digital revenues are not nearly enough to make up for the loss of physical sales (1:5 ratio!) • Developing countries have no pay-by-unit tradition • There is more content consumption than ever before - but where is the ‘new money’?
  • 18. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist The lesson: You’ll have to get wet if you want to learn how to swim.
  • 19. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist The new ways of making money with Content are going to be quite unlike the traditional ways
  • 20. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist Freemium
  • 21. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist The new ways of making money with Communications are going to be drastically expanded from the traditional ways
  • 22. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist The next SMS is a) Content b) Social Communication around Content (Social Media)
  • 23. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist The new ways of Advertising are going to be totally unlike the traditional ways
  • 24. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist Next Generation Advertising
  • 25. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist Drastic role changes are imminent. Experience Platform Service Pipe Content Pipe Data Pipe
  • 26. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist Communications Advertising Content
  • 27. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist We cannot wall-in our Content in this future
  • 28. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist We cannot generate enough new values without Content
  • 29. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist Disruption Reinvention
  • 30. The Copyright Dilemma Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist Copy
  • 31. The Copyright Dilemma Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist Right
  • 32. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist Right ... for the law - wrong for the $$
  • 33. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist • Is the quest for Control realistic? • Will it make Money? • Will it be fair and equitable? • Will it create a Culture & Society in which we will want to live in?
  • 34. Stop this? Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist
  • 35. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist The opportunity
  • 36. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist The past: making your customers angry
  • 37. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist
  • 38. The Digital Music Flat Rate is inevitable Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist ~1910 + = + = ~2009?
  • 39. The logic Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist ‣ Music is included in network access ‣ Fees are paid but cross-subsidized ‣ Music is cost-neutral to Networks ‣ User pays ‘with attention’ or cash ‣ Most uses will ‘will like free’ ‣ Data is shared with content owners ‣ Multiple upsell options can unfold ‣ Rightholders get paid for each use
  • 40. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist The new ecosystem: Example: Music Extra Community Services Video, Games, Interactive Preferred access (fans) Live Recordings on-demand Merchandising High-definition offerings Bundled Music, Feels Like Free, Unlimited, no DRM, Streams & Downloads * followed by other Content!
  • 41. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist Games > Music > Film / TV > Books >> Command & Control becomes Coordinate & Cultivate *Thomas Malone “The Future of Work”
  • 42. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist More access = More use of Content
  • 43. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist http://flickr.com/photos/jan1020/
  • 44. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist How to make the users happy
  • 45. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist In a networked culture, a world of NO permission is a world of NO $
  • 46. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist Average Available Time Available Choices Average Available Attention Attention, Choice & Curation Trends (Gerd Leonhard) 100% 75% 50% 25% 0% Was Is Soon The Future
  • 47. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist Amount of Input Need for Selection, Filtering & Curation Need for Community of Content Attention, Choice & Curation Trends (Gerd Leonhard) 100% 75% 50% 25% 0% Was Is Soon The Future
  • 48. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist It’s not the free copy that counts - it’s everything around it!
  • 49. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist Instead of Control http://flickr.com/photos/foxwillow/
  • 50. Search IS Media. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist Media is Social. Search is Social.
  • 51. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist Selling content: finding new money sources Next Generation Advertising Freemium Flat Rates & Bundles New Generatives Sell Copies *Take 2 3rd party pays (cross subsidies) 20% 20% 10% 15% 35%
  • 52. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist Value of ‘a Copy’ Value of CONTEXT Value of Meta-Content Value of Experiences Value Trends (by Gerd Leonhard) Value of Context 100% Value of Experience Value of Meta-Content 75% 50% 25% Value of ‘a Copy’ 0% Was Is Soon The Future
  • 53. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist New Value: Meta-Content *aka Data • User ratings & recommendations • User reviews • User tagging and annotating • User bookmarking • User sharing / forwarding • User editing / remixing • User republishing
  • 54. The new Content Economy: the User is a major force Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist
  • 55. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist P e r m i s s i o n . E n g a g e m e n t . C o n v e r s a t i o n . T h e F u t u r e .
  • 56. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist The Future of Content: Attention-based Income Explodes Copy Based Revenues Attention Based Revenues Was Is Soon Near Future Mid-term Future
  • 57. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist • Give Permission - and collect revenue shares
  • 58. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist Kevin Kelly @ kk.org: When an offering becomes commoditized the solution is to offer valuable intangibles: 1. Immediacy - priority access, immediate delivery 2. Personalization - tailored just for you... ʻMeCastʼ 3. Interpretation & Filtering - support and guidance 4. Authenticity - making sure itʼs the real thing 5. Accessibility - wherever, whenever, however 6. Embodiment, Experience & Packaging 7. Community (i.e. the Tribes) 8. Findability & Curation
  • 59. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist To summarize Telecom Content
  • 60. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist Thanks for listening! TALK BACK: ★ email me at gerd@mediafuturist.com ★ twitter.com/gleonhard ★ facebook: gleonhard ★ more presentations at www.mediafuturist.com ★ Thought-Stream at www.gerdstream.com