Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist
The End of Control &
The Future of Content
Gerd Leonhard @Google San Francisco March 2 2009
www.mediafuturist.com
www.endofcontrol.com

Some recommended resources
Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist
Wikinomics (Don Tapscott)
The Wealth of Networks (Yochai Benkler)
Here Comes Everybody (Clay Shirky)
Crowdsourcing (Jeff Howe)
The Technium (Kevin Kelly)

The global economic fabric has changed
Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist
Some trusted old business models
seem to have suddenly stopped
working
Dominance becomes much harder to achieve
Collaboration emerges as
essential success paradigm
Open systems are starting to ‘win-
win’ everywhere

Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist
Yochai Benkler (The Wealth of Networks):
“Collaborative projects like Wikipedia and
Linux represent the next stage of
human organization”

Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist
Words... and Actions?
Source: Accenture 08

Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist
Production Competition Authority
Copyright Ownership Control
‘Developing’ Countries ‘Developed’ Countries
Empowered Individuals Incumbent Companies
Authorized Professionals
Professional Amateurs

Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist

Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist
Defining Control
Own the customer...
Control distribution...
Target and hit consumers...
Fight competition...
I win you lose

Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist
It used to be

Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist
The Past: Control The Future: Trust
Source: Flickr.com/francesco_e

Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist

Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist
To
From

Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist
Together, Broadband Culture, Mobility
and Convergence are quickly re-
defining how we think about:
• Privacy
• Authority
• Ownership / Copyright
• Value (period) i.e. ‘Selling’ and Marketing
• R&D, and Production
• Work
• Education

Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist

Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist
3D printers: downloading products

Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist
Imagine using a software that encodes detailed
specifications of something and then seeing
that object emerge from a box on your desk no
bigger than a microwave oven...(source: ECommerce Times)

Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist
One of Google’s challenges is to
guide content creators
and owners into this new world

Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist
Copy Economy
Access / Usage /
Sharing Economy

Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist
How to reach the people
How not to be formerly known as
commoditized? consumers?
How to make sure they
How to maintain value? keep coming back?
What to give away
and what to sell?

Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist
Content 2.0: a new ecosystem
Content and application players connect
with search engines, web portals, social
networks, brands and telecoms to
determine a new balance of power.

Starting in 2009:
Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist
• Total convergence of Telecom & Web Layers
• Deep collaboration becomes the KEY
requirement for creating new business opps
• Over-the top layers (search, social media...)
must come down, telecoms must move up!

Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist
All of a sudden
COMMU-
MEDIA
NICATION
&
ADVER- &
SEARCH CONTENT ENTER-
TISING TAIN-
TELE- MENT
COM

Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist
And finally: TV2.0

Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist
The printing press
gave birth to
Copyright
The Internet
gives birth to
Sharing Rights

Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist
The Sharing Economy Logic
...the Output (i.e. publish, re-
mix, co-create, life-stream...)
the Input (i.e. remuneration in
cash, attention, reputation...)
... the Thruput (i.e. usage
data, meta content, attention
trails >> New Data Economics)

‘Old’ Content Economy
Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist

But now...
Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist
Chris ‘Free Wired LongTail’ Anderson:

‘Free’ gets my Attention...
Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist
Merit and Trust gets my Money.

Now Consumers... dictate!
Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist

A new Content Economy
Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist

Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist
3rd Party
Pays
Attention
I Pay
Value &
Merit

A A really new Content Economy
Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist
t Ads 2.0
3rd Party
t
Data Usage
Pays
e
Affiliates
n
t
Premiums
i
I Pay UGC
o
Sharing
n Bundles

User = Content = $$$
Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist

Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist
Source: kk.org

Imho,
Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist
Google needs to get involved
in making ‘free’ Internet
content legal and
monetizable

Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist
The Future of Content: Attention-based Income Explodes
Copy Based Revenues Attention Based Revenues
10.0
7.5
5.0
2.5
0
Was Is Soon Near Future Mid-term Future

Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist
The Content Industries are going...
To
From

Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist
Content 2.0:
make it available
get users ‘addicted’
sell everything around
and up from Content

Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist
What we can learn from the music industry: the focus on
Control is not a profitable business model for the Future

Trust... IS!
Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist

Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist
Revenues are a Consequence of Attention
Where ever attention
flows, money will
follow
Kevin Kelly @ kk.org

Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist
What is wrong with this picture?

Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist
A victim of too much control: Music

2009
Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist

A tough gig: bridging
Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist

Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist
Trust
Control

Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist
Uncorking the Trust Economy
http://flickr.com/photos/ryananderson/

Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist
Value of ‘a Copy’ Value of CONTEXT
Value of Meta-Content Value of Experiences
Value of Packaging
Value Trends (by Gerd Leonhard)
Value of Context
100%
Value of Experience
Value of Meta-Content
Value of Packaging
75%
50%
25%
Value of ‘a Copy’
0%
Was Is Soon The Future

Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist
21st century content economics
influenced by Kevin Kelly, Chris Anderson, Don Tapscott, Yochai Benkler...
Conversation
Convenience
Selection / Filtering
Packaging
Individualization
Immediacy
Trust

Content Economy Trends
Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist
Music Video Games Books Mags & Print
Percentage of Revenues from Digital Services
100%
75%
50%
25%
0%
2008 2009 2010 2012 2015

Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist
Filter Failure
Clay Shirky, author of \"Here Comes Everybody\" and
professor of new media at New York University:
We suffer \"not from information
overload but filtering failure”

Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist
The Ubiquity of Content creates
the increasing need for Filtering &
Packaging - and in some cases,
Filters will be paid-for
while the Content
may...not!
http://flickr.com/photos/meganmcintosh/

Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist
2009: The Redefinition of ‘Telecom’
Experience Platform
Service Pipe
Content Pipe
Data
Pipe

Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist
Telecom Control Level
Google Opportunity
10
7.5
5
2.5
0
Calls SMS Data Content Services Experiences

Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist
The Crowd + the Cloud = Future

Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist
Information > Conversation
Interruption > Engagement
Annoyance > Entertainment
This is an Ad > This is Content

Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist
• Display ads are the past -
engagement, involvement
and interactivity are the future
• The currency is Personal
Information & Data: getting it /
buying it, renting it, borrowing
it, selling it... keeping it
• The new, old deal: in
exchange for value, we
surrender valuable data
• The new creative mission:
products and services that
have advertising and
marketing built-in!

Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist

Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist
New Data New Content
Economy
Economy
Next
Generation
Advertising

Some of the Players in this turf
Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist
New
New Content
Data Economy
Economy
Next
Generation
Advertising

Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist
Communications
Advertising Content

Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist
Source: Flickr.com/unknown
Hollywood’s Control
Crisis is a huge
opportunity.

Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist
The fight for Control was a fight for
Distribution.
The flight for Attention is a fight for
Trust.
The beneficiaries of Control were
Monopolies.
The beneficiaries of Trust are those
that Collaborate

Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist
Thanks for listening
Gerd Leonhard
www.mediafuturist.com
Twitter.com/gleonhard
gerd@mediafuturist.com