The End Of Control and the Future of Content: Futurist Gerd Leonhard Authors@Google (San Francisco)

Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist The End of Control & The Future of Content Gerd Leonhard @Google San Francisco March 2 2009 www.mediafuturist.com www.endofcontrol.com

Some recommended resources Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist Wikinomics (Don Tapscott) The Wealth of Networks (Yochai Benkler) Here Comes Everybody (Clay Shirky) Crowdsourcing (Jeff Howe) The Technium (Kevin Kelly)

The global economic fabric has changed Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist Some trusted old business models seem to have suddenly stopped working Dominance becomes much harder to achieve Collaboration emerges as essential success paradigm Open systems are starting to ‘win- win’ everywhere

Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist Yochai Benkler (The Wealth of Networks): “Collaborative projects like Wikipedia and Linux represent the next stage of human organization”

Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist Words... and Actions? Source: Accenture 08

Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist Production Competition Authority Copyright Ownership Control ‘Developing’ Countries ‘Developed’ Countries Empowered Individuals Incumbent Companies Authorized Professionals Professional Amateurs

Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist

Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist Defining Control Own the customer... Control distribution... Target and hit consumers... Fight competition... I win you lose

Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist It used to be

Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist The Past: Control The Future: Trust Source: Flickr.com/francesco_e

Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist To From

Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist Together, Broadband Culture, Mobility and Convergence are quickly re- defining how we think about: • Privacy • Authority • Ownership / Copyright • Value (period) i.e. ‘Selling’ and Marketing • R&D, and Production • Work • Education

Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist 3D printers: downloading products

Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist Imagine using a software that encodes detailed specifications of something and then seeing that object emerge from a box on your desk no bigger than a microwave oven...(source: ECommerce Times)

Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist One of Google’s challenges is to guide content creators and owners into this new world

Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist Copy Economy Access / Usage / Sharing Economy

Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist How to reach the people How not to be formerly known as commoditized? consumers? How to make sure they How to maintain value? keep coming back? What to give away and what to sell?

Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist Content 2.0: a new ecosystem Content and application players connect with search engines, web portals, social networks, brands and telecoms to determine a new balance of power.

Starting in 2009: Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist • Total convergence of Telecom & Web Layers • Deep collaboration becomes the KEY requirement for creating new business opps • Over-the top layers (search, social media...) must come down, telecoms must move up!

Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist All of a sudden COMMU- MEDIA NICATION & ADVER- & SEARCH CONTENT ENTER- TISING TAIN- TELE- MENT COM

Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist And finally: TV2.0

Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist The printing press gave birth to Copyright The Internet gives birth to Sharing Rights

Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist The Sharing Economy Logic ...the Output (i.e. publish, re- mix, co-create, life-stream...) the Input (i.e. remuneration in cash, attention, reputation...) ... the Thruput (i.e. usage data, meta content, attention trails >> New Data Economics)

‘Old’ Content Economy Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist

But now... Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist Chris ‘Free Wired LongTail’ Anderson:

‘Free’ gets my Attention... Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist Merit and Trust gets my Money.

Now Consumers... dictate! Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist

A new Content Economy Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist

Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist 3rd Party Pays Attention I Pay Value & Merit

A A really new Content Economy Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist t Ads 2.0 3rd Party t Data Usage Pays e Affiliates n t Premiums i I Pay UGC o Sharing n Bundles

User = Content = $$$ Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist

Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist Source: kk.org

Imho, Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist Google needs to get involved in making ‘free’ Internet content legal and monetizable

Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist The Future of Content: Attention-based Income Explodes Copy Based Revenues Attention Based Revenues 10.0 7.5 5.0 2.5 0 Was Is Soon Near Future Mid-term Future

Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist The Content Industries are going... To From

Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist Content 2.0: make it available get users ‘addicted’ sell everything around and up from Content

Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist What we can learn from the music industry: the focus on Control is not a profitable business model for the Future

Trust... IS! Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist

Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist Revenues are a Consequence of Attention Where ever attention flows, money will follow Kevin Kelly @ kk.org

Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist What is wrong with this picture?

Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist A victim of too much control: Music

2009 Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist

A tough gig: bridging Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist

Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist Trust Control

Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist Uncorking the Trust Economy http://flickr.com/photos/ryananderson/

Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist Value of ‘a Copy’ Value of CONTEXT Value of Meta-Content Value of Experiences Value of Packaging Value Trends (by Gerd Leonhard) Value of Context 100% Value of Experience Value of Meta-Content Value of Packaging 75% 50% 25% Value of ‘a Copy’ 0% Was Is Soon The Future

Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist 21st century content economics influenced by Kevin Kelly, Chris Anderson, Don Tapscott, Yochai Benkler... Conversation Convenience Selection / Filtering Packaging Individualization Immediacy Trust

Content Economy Trends Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist Music Video Games Books Mags & Print Percentage of Revenues from Digital Services 100% 75% 50% 25% 0% 2008 2009 2010 2012 2015

Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist Filter Failure Clay Shirky, author of quot;Here Comes Everybodyquot; and professor of new media at New York University: We suffer quot;not from information overload but filtering failure”

Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist The Ubiquity of Content creates the increasing need for Filtering & Packaging - and in some cases, Filters will be paid-for while the Content may...not! http://flickr.com/photos/meganmcintosh/

Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist 2009: The Redefinition of ‘Telecom’ Experience Platform Service Pipe Content Pipe Data Pipe

Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist Telecom Control Level Google Opportunity 10 7.5 5 2.5 0 Calls SMS Data Content Services Experiences

Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist The Crowd + the Cloud = Future

Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist Information > Conversation Interruption > Engagement Annoyance > Entertainment This is an Ad > This is Content

Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist • Display ads are the past - engagement, involvement and interactivity are the future • The currency is Personal Information & Data: getting it / buying it, renting it, borrowing it, selling it... keeping it • The new, old deal: in exchange for value, we surrender valuable data • The new creative mission: products and services that have advertising and marketing built-in!

Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist New Data New Content Economy Economy Next Generation Advertising

Some of the Players in this turf Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist New New Content Data Economy Economy Next Generation Advertising

Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist Communications Advertising Content

Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist Source: Flickr.com/unknown Hollywood’s Control Crisis is a huge opportunity.

Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist The fight for Control was a fight for Distribution. The flight for Attention is a fight for Trust. The beneficiaries of Control were Monopolies. The beneficiaries of Trust are those that Collaborate

Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist Thanks for listening Gerd Leonhard www.mediafuturist.com Twitter.com/gleonhard gerd@mediafuturist.com

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The End Of Control and the Future of Content: Futurist Gerd Leonhard Authors@Google (San Francisco)

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The End Of Control and the Future of Content: Futurist Gerd Leonhard Authors@Google (San Francisco) Presentation Transcript