TeleMedia Futures: the next 5 years in Media, Content and Telecom

Telemedia Futures by Gerd Leonhard ‣ Futurist ‣ Strategist ‣ Author & Blogger www.mediafuturist.com twitter.com/gleonhard At BLPLaw London, January 13, 2010

From a Broadcast World to a Networked World

From EgoSystems to EcoSystems

The Future: TeleMedia Collaboration Telecom Internet Content Social Networks Advertising Consumer Electronics

From Binary Logic to Fuzzy Logic

What is the value of....? Source: http://denniscass.com/

The Redefinition of ‘Telecom’ Experience Platform Service Pipe Content Pipe Data Pipe

Source: eMarketer.com

New technologies - new practices - new business models

Firehoses of Information

Social games & virtual goods 800.000 tractors ‘sold’ EACH DAY 65 Million+ users without any advertising 1.2 Million users per day est. $200M / Year in revenues Source: YouTube.com “farmville girl’

Next: The Napsterization of Books...? Source: YouTube.com

Tele-Media Paradigm Shifts Focus on Control Opportunities for Growth 10 7.5 5 2.5 0 Calls SMS Data Content Services Experiences

The Opportunity: Lubricate!

Data is the new Oil... Shared bookmarks, playlists, social markers Click-trails and digital bread-crumbs Opt-in information such as location Ratings, comments, tags and other feedback

Music Video Games Books Mags & Print Percentage of Revenues from Digital Services 100% Digital Content Trends 75% 50% 25% 0% 2008 2009 2010 2012 2015

What we need: Permission Standards Transparency Engagement

Content: pricing logic will flip Price Users 100 75 50 Metrics will be reinvented 25 0 Was Will be

More Permissions More added Values Better Price More Convenience

Expensive Cheaper Flat-Rated New Ecosystem Expensive

The Future of Content: Attention-based Income Explodes 10.0 “Broadband is useless if 7.5 your mind stays narrow” 5.0 2.5 Was 0 Soon Copy Based Revenues Mid-term Future Attention Based Revenues

Content is only ~20% of the Cost Thanks to Flickr.com/alextorrenegra

Bono / Paul McGuinness Source: last week’s FT (Op-ed by Bono)

Media $$$: no longer about Distribution

2010: watch the sea change Source: IFPI Report 2008

Value of ‘a Copy’ Value of CONTEXT Value of Meta-Content Value of Experiences Value of Packaging Value Trends (by Gerd Leonhard) Value of Context 100% Value of Experience Value of Meta-Content Value of Packaging 75% 50% 25% Value of ‘a Copy’ 0% Was Is Soon The Future

Not ‘if’ but ‘how’!

ISPs and Mobile Operators will move up the food-chain: Social Networking Content Services Communication 2.0 Money 2.0 eLearning

Thanks for your time email me at gerd@mediafuturist.com twitter.com/gleonhard facebook: gleonhard more presentations at www.mediafuturist.com

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TeleMedia Futures: the next 5 years in Media, Content and Telecom

by Gerd Leonhard on Jan 14, 2010

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TeleMedia Futures: the next 5 years in Media, Content and Telecom — Presentation Transcript