Shifting to the



         www.mediafuturist.com
         twitter.com/gleonhard
What does the Future hold -

and how will we prepare for it?
Unprecedented Change
in Communications and
      Commerce
The other 3 Billion (O3B)
Wikipedia: By allowing direct connection to core networks and 3G Cellular/
 WiMAX towers, the O3...
“...completely change
    the economics of
 telecommunications
  infrastructure in the
world's fastest-growing
   telecomm...
Source: Ruder-Finn Study Feb 2010
(Almost) everything we used
  to do on the Computer is
 shifting to Mobile Devices
Behavior Changes... and new dangers;)
Expect extreme Fragmentation of Commerce Models and Timing
Mobile
  Social
Connected
 Real-Time
Empowered
Welcome to Communication 2.0
De-centralized
Mobile
Cross-Media
 Interactive
 Real-Time
Serious food for thought...
Noise    Attraction
Game-Changers driven by “Open + Connected”
I expect 30+% of all Advertising to shift
  to digital, interactive, mobile, social,
       video, in the next 2-3 years
Apps not Ads:
Appvertising not @vertising




     Bangkok, Thailand *Gerd Leonhard
The Open
 Network
Economy
Open Network Economy: The Topics

                 Open *amap
         Networked vs ‘The Network’
                  Mobile...
‘Broadcast’ Business: shrinking, and
   becoming a lot more expensive
The Consequences of ‘Closed’...?!
Music Industry:
 “What does the
Future hold - and
   how do we
  prevent it...?”
       Source: seekingalpha.com
“We can enforce a different future than
that which our customers want”
“We can ignore our users’ emerging
behaviors and mo...
The ‘captive consumer’ is...dying
=$
Networked Business Models
A key realization:

Networked
  People
 Innovate
  Faster
“Not necessarily Harmony but
extreme Concern and Involvement”
Leaders become
Connectors -
  not just ‘Directors’
The World’s
OS is shifting
  towards
Connected &
   Social
Online and Offline are converging
Our future is ...
TeleMedia: success driven by Collaboration
ISPs and Mobile Operators will move up the food-chain:

     Social Networking
      Content Services
    Communication 2....
Source: Slideshare
“Trust
is the most important currency
online, so to build it we adhere
   to three principles of open
       information: ...
The opportunity is to earn Trust, now




                Trust Economy

How do you get Trust without Openness?
Social Business...Trust Osmosis
            s t
         Tru

                          ru st
                         T
A Fundamental Shift: Closed to Open




              Energy
             Business
            Education
        Telecommu...
The World’s OS is Morphing
A tough change... but inevitable
3 ‘Open’ challenges
1.Openness is hard - and usually not our default setting
2.Conversations take time - and can become re...
Hyper-Competition
 Hyper-Collaboration
O’Reilly Safari Books: priced for open Markets
• Unlimited
  access to
  10.000 technical
  books online, for
  $42.00 / m...
Closed vs Open...
A few examples

 Free / cheap phone calls
 Mobile phone applications
  Downloadable / streamed /
     catch-up TV shows
  ...
12/2009: Google’s Open Business Manifesto:
   “Closed system are well-defined and
   profitable, but only for those that c...
Ecosystem not Egosystem
    You         Me

                     Them
 Us

                     Me
          You
This is happening pretty much everywhere:
  From a packaged-goods i.e.
‘stuff’ mentality to a service and
      ‘experienc...
Source: Flickr Desert Diva
Touch-Screens / Haptic Interfaces
Gesture Control
Expect more of this: Real-Life + Mobile + Internet




                       Imagine what this could do for
             ...
Books: the Napster Moment
Example: Farmville Game on Facebook
• Application exists only on Facebook
• It’s free but you can buy goods to enhance the...
3D Printing
Source: Slideshare
“Governments are freeing up their data,
   records and information; museums and
   galleries are throwing open their doors...
Brands are now...
                       hers
                P ublis
               Broad
                     casters
  ...
What are you broadcasting?
Decentral business models emerge
Examples
       Centralized     Decentralized
Microsoft / Windows          Google
        MTV                  Youtube
Tow...
The future is no longer binary....




          It’s fuzzy.
Open Network Economy Puzzle Pieces
         Open Collaboration




                              Open Innovation




     ...
From Don Tapscott *Wikinomics: Enterprise 2.0
Control ≠ Money
 Egosystem 
Ecosystem
       Command & Control
  becomes Coordinate & Cultivate
         *Thomas Malone “...
About Control: some good quotes
Jeff Jarvis
It’s not either... or!



                   versus
Investigate Freemium
Not mere consumption... Access, Packaging... Service!
Crowd-sourcing: Open Innovation
Example
The term
Social Media is really kind of an
  artifact, a mere construct.



         Better:
   Networked Media.
   Real-T...
What does this mean for your business?
Openness propels Social Media Growth
Social
Media will
soon beat
  eMail,
Video may
 well beat
  Search
Social Media is
“Customer Relationship Management”
How Dell does Twitter
Get rid of Push Marketing

               Top-down
           Domination Plays
       Expensive watering-cans
       Uni-d...
Social-Mobile-Web-Native Marketing: Pull
“Followers, Friends, Fans, Users”
       Attract and addict
     Low-cost, very t...
Once we are really connected,
Curation matters more than volume
Remember
The global shift to Open
   Open licenses
  Open innovation
  Open distribution
 Open competition
 Open partnerships
 Open...
Open Network Economy: Summary

    Move towards Open *amap     (as much as possible)


    Think and plan for: Mobile Firs...
Egosystem not Ecosystem
Thanks for your attention!




App Store: “Media Futurist”
email me at gerd@mediafuturist.com
  twitter.com/gleonhard
   f...
Shifting to the Open Network Economy (FDC CEO Event in Sao Paolo)
Shifting to the Open Network Economy (FDC CEO Event in Sao Paolo)
Shifting to the Open Network Economy (FDC CEO Event in Sao Paolo)
Shifting to the Open Network Economy (FDC CEO Event in Sao Paolo)
Shifting to the Open Network Economy (FDC CEO Event in Sao Paolo)
Shifting to the Open Network Economy (FDC CEO Event in Sao Paolo)
Shifting to the Open Network Economy (FDC CEO Event in Sao Paolo)
Shifting to the Open Network Economy (FDC CEO Event in Sao Paolo)
Shifting to the Open Network Economy (FDC CEO Event in Sao Paolo)
Shifting to the Open Network Economy (FDC CEO Event in Sao Paolo)
Shifting to the Open Network Economy (FDC CEO Event in Sao Paolo)
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Shifting to the Open Network Economy (FDC CEO Event in Sao Paolo)

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My presentation at the CEO leadership training for the Fundacao Dom Cabral FDC in Sao Paulo, Brazil, February 23, 2010, about the Open Network Economy

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Shifting to the Open Network Economy (FDC CEO Event in Sao Paolo)

  1. 1. Shifting to the www.mediafuturist.com twitter.com/gleonhard
  2. 2. What does the Future hold - and how will we prepare for it?
  3. 3. Unprecedented Change in Communications and Commerce
  4. 4. The other 3 Billion (O3B) Wikipedia: By allowing direct connection to core networks and 3G Cellular/ WiMAX towers, the O3b Networks system will completely change the economics of telecommunications infrastructure in the world's fastest- growing markets for communications services
  5. 5. “...completely change the economics of telecommunications infrastructure in the world's fastest-growing telecommunication markets”
  6. 6. Source: Ruder-Finn Study Feb 2010
  7. 7. (Almost) everything we used to do on the Computer is shifting to Mobile Devices
  8. 8. Behavior Changes... and new dangers;)
  9. 9. Expect extreme Fragmentation of Commerce Models and Timing
  10. 10. Mobile Social Connected Real-Time Empowered
  11. 11. Welcome to Communication 2.0 De-centralized Mobile Cross-Media Interactive Real-Time
  12. 12. Serious food for thought...
  13. 13. Noise  Attraction
  14. 14. Game-Changers driven by “Open + Connected”
  15. 15. I expect 30+% of all Advertising to shift to digital, interactive, mobile, social, video, in the next 2-3 years
  16. 16. Apps not Ads: Appvertising not @vertising Bangkok, Thailand *Gerd Leonhard
  17. 17. The Open Network Economy
  18. 18. Open Network Economy: The Topics Open *amap Networked vs ‘The Network’ Mobile First The Cloud Data = Gold Followers - not Consumers Friction = Fiction Trust = the new Control Fuzzy Logic vs Binary Logic ROI 2.0 (return on Involvement)
  19. 19. ‘Broadcast’ Business: shrinking, and becoming a lot more expensive
  20. 20. The Consequences of ‘Closed’...?!
  21. 21. Music Industry: “What does the Future hold - and how do we prevent it...?” Source: seekingalpha.com
  22. 22. “We can enforce a different future than that which our customers want” “We can ignore our users’ emerging behaviors and mold them as we see fit” “We need to watch out for what’s good for us, first and foremost” “Our gain needs to be 100% ours - it’s a win-lose world!” “More control = more money”
  23. 23. The ‘captive consumer’ is...dying
  24. 24. =$ Networked Business Models
  25. 25. A key realization: Networked People Innovate Faster
  26. 26. “Not necessarily Harmony but extreme Concern and Involvement”
  27. 27. Leaders become Connectors - not just ‘Directors’
  28. 28. The World’s OS is shifting towards Connected & Social
  29. 29. Online and Offline are converging
  30. 30. Our future is ...
  31. 31. TeleMedia: success driven by Collaboration
  32. 32. ISPs and Mobile Operators will move up the food-chain: Social Networking Content Services Communication 2.0 Money 2.0 eLearning
  33. 33. Source: Slideshare
  34. 34. “Trust is the most important currency online, so to build it we adhere to three principles of open information: value, transparency, and control” Google Senior VP, Product Management Jonathan Rosenberg's essay, The Meaning of Open, published on the Offical Google Blog
  35. 35. The opportunity is to earn Trust, now Trust Economy How do you get Trust without Openness?
  36. 36. Social Business...Trust Osmosis s t Tru ru st T
  37. 37. A Fundamental Shift: Closed to Open Energy Business Education Telecommunication Media & Content
  38. 38. The World’s OS is Morphing
  39. 39. A tough change... but inevitable
  40. 40. 3 ‘Open’ challenges 1.Openness is hard - and usually not our default setting 2.Conversations take time - and can become real work 3.‘Offering something for free so that you can ask to get paid later’ takes real courage - and believe!
  41. 41. Hyper-Competition  Hyper-Collaboration
  42. 42. O’Reilly Safari Books: priced for open Markets • Unlimited access to 10.000 technical books online, for $42.00 / month • Added values: videos, rough- cuts, mobile, collaboration tools etc • 15 Million + users, out-sells all other O’Reilly offerings
  43. 43. Closed vs Open...
  44. 44. A few examples Free / cheap phone calls Mobile phone applications Downloadable / streamed / catch-up TV shows Good generic devices
  45. 45. 12/2009: Google’s Open Business Manifesto: “Closed system are well-defined and profitable, but only for those that control them” “Open system are chaotic and profitable, but only for those that understand them well and move faster than everyone else” “Closed systems grow quickly while open systems evolve more slowly (requiring a longer view” “Google has all variants”
  46. 46. Ecosystem not Egosystem You Me Them Us Me You
  47. 47. This is happening pretty much everywhere: From a packaged-goods i.e. ‘stuff’ mentality to a service and ‘experience’ mentality
  48. 48. Source: Flickr Desert Diva
  49. 49. Touch-Screens / Haptic Interfaces
  50. 50. Gesture Control
  51. 51. Expect more of this: Real-Life + Mobile + Internet Imagine what this could do for your business... Source: Wikitude / Youtube
  52. 52. Books: the Napster Moment
  53. 53. Example: Farmville Game on Facebook • Application exists only on Facebook • It’s free but you can buy goods to enhance the experience: 800.000 tractors ‘sold’ every single day • A team of 15 Developers release new virtual items into FarmVille twice a week; new features debut weekly. • 65 Million+ users without any advertising • 1.2 Million users per day • Parent company Zynga earns est. $200M / Year
  54. 54. 3D Printing
  55. 55. Source: Slideshare
  56. 56. “Governments are freeing up their data, records and information; museums and galleries are throwing open their doors; NGOs and charities are becoming publishers; universities are opening their lecture halls; scientists and corporations are sharing knowledge in ways which would have been unimaginable even 10 years ago...”
  57. 57. Brands are now... hers P ublis Broad casters M edia C ont ent
  58. 58. What are you broadcasting?
  59. 59. Decentral business models emerge
  60. 60. Examples Centralized Decentralized Microsoft / Windows Google MTV Youtube Tower Records / HMV Spotify / Last.fm Traditional Telecom Skype Wall Street Journal The Guardian (UK)
  61. 61. The future is no longer binary.... It’s fuzzy.
  62. 62. Open Network Economy Puzzle Pieces Open Collaboration Open Innovation Open Business Strategy
  63. 63. From Don Tapscott *Wikinomics: Enterprise 2.0
  64. 64. Control ≠ Money Egosystem  Ecosystem Command & Control becomes Coordinate & Cultivate *Thomas Malone “The Future of Work”
  65. 65. About Control: some good quotes Jeff Jarvis
  66. 66. It’s not either... or! versus
  67. 67. Investigate Freemium
  68. 68. Not mere consumption... Access, Packaging... Service!
  69. 69. Crowd-sourcing: Open Innovation
  70. 70. Example
  71. 71. The term Social Media is really kind of an artifact, a mere construct. Better: Networked Media. Real-Time Media. User-driven Media. Engaged Media.
  72. 72. What does this mean for your business?
  73. 73. Openness propels Social Media Growth
  74. 74. Social Media will soon beat eMail, Video may well beat Search
  75. 75. Social Media is “Customer Relationship Management”
  76. 76. How Dell does Twitter
  77. 77. Get rid of Push Marketing Top-down Domination Plays Expensive watering-cans Uni-directional marketing Interrupting consumers Shout: buy buy buy 100% control everything
  78. 78. Social-Mobile-Web-Native Marketing: Pull “Followers, Friends, Fans, Users” Attract and addict Low-cost, very targeted Conversational Engagement is the goal Message: share. follow. talk. 100% Trust
  79. 79. Once we are really connected, Curation matters more than volume
  80. 80. Remember
  81. 81. The global shift to Open Open licenses Open innovation Open distribution Open competition Open partnerships Open technologies Open data standards
  82. 82. Open Network Economy: Summary Move towards Open *amap (as much as possible) Think and plan for: Mobile First Move towards “the Cloud” Take advantage of “Data = new Gold” Think Followers - not Consumers Join “The Networked” Reduce Friction - pursue Liquidity Replace Control with Trust Embrace fuzzy logic, plan for change Pursue ROI 2.0: return on Involvement
  83. 83. Egosystem not Ecosystem
  84. 84. Thanks for your attention! App Store: “Media Futurist” email me at gerd@mediafuturist.com twitter.com/gleonhard facebook: gleonhard
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