Gerd Leonhard
               Presentation at RadioDays 2007


    Music 2.0 and the Future of Radio?
                     ...
Radio used to have a

                           Monopoly in
                            Attention!


                    ...
The problem is not the new
         ideas - but how to get rid of
                 the old ones.

               So let’s ...
Radio today: competition coming from all sides

                                            Social Networks and Blogs

   ...
Gerd Leonhard Music & Media Futurist www.mediafuturist.com
Monday, January 21, 2008                                       ...
Me, September 2007




          Friction is Fiction


                           Gerd Leonhard Music & Media Futurist www...
SMS +41 79 79 353 84




       Across the world, 1.1 Billion
      People use the Internet, 1.4
     Billion watch TV, an...
The Net Generation:




           I program my media
           - it does not program
           me!

                   ...
The key drivers of Change
• Broadband
• Mobility
• Social Networks
• Blogs and User Generated Content (UGC)
• Total Fragme...
Gerd Leonhard www.mediafuturist.com

Monday, January 21, 2008                                   10
Gerd Leonhard www.mediafuturist.com

Monday, January 21, 2008                                   11
W e a r e h ea d i ng int o a a cc el e ra t i ng
          c o nverg enc e o f A ud i o a nd V i d eo .




             ...
And in advertising


                By 2008, online advertising
                spending in the US is
                exp...
A few shocking facts from the U.S.




                              Gerd Leonhard Music & Media Futurist www.mediafuturis...
In the US: tuning
                           out of Radio is
                           guaranteed




                   ...
Radio ad
                           revenues
                           are not
                           going
         ...
and then comes...




                           Gerd Leonhard Music & Media Futurist www.mediafuturist.com
Monday, Januar...
‘How’ will matter less and less.   ‘What’ will matter more and more
                                                      ...
Remember when Radio had a

                           Monopoly in
                            Attention?


               ...
Consumers inevitably use the best
 innovations that are available - legal
                or not




                     ...
three




                           Gerd Leonhard Music & Media Futurist www.mediafuturist.com
Monday, January 21, 2008  ...
Imagine a page, a button, a Canvas where
         you simply put all the stations that you
                   want to list...
Consumers are, now more than ever before,
        seeking consolidated, trustworthy content,
        recognition and commu...
New technologies often disrupt ecosystems
     but always make the market bigger

                             Gerd Leonha...
The De-Walling:
• Music formats will be either open or 100% compatible -
  DRM is the past
• Music as a service will becom...
Thanks to the Net Generation & the
               Digital Natives,
    Social Networks on the
       Internet are the
    ...
Global Social Networking is already bigger than Radio in the U.S.




                                             Gerd Le...
The People formerly
        known as Listeners
             (aka Consumers)

                           Gerd Leonhard Musi...
The Medium formerly
              known as Radio



                           Gerd Leonhard Music & Media Futurist www.me...
Soon, most of them will
     get most of their ‘Radio’
        via any digital network
     - the Internet dominates
     ...
Why is your station not broadcasting on
  Facebook, Lunarstorm, Sulekha.net or Orkut?




                               G...
Because




          In all Media, Push is
          becoming Pull



                           Gerd Leonhard Music & Me...
Just different words for the same thing...

    Broadcasting
    Streaming Tubesocking
    Public    Playlisting
    Perfo...
The most important development in the
   Context of Radio Licensing is The
   Flat Rate for Digital Music



             ...
And for Public Radio

       The Net Generation will not
       continue to pay a public
       Radio or TV License withou...
The Reality is:


• The Internet is a Giant Copy Machine
• Digital Radio IS Distribution
• From the listeners standpoint, ...
The bottom line:
                   In media, Friction is now


                           Fiction
                       ...
Very soon -
  listening IS receiving



                           Gerd Leonhard Music & Media Futurist www.mediafuturist....
A Logic Challenge



  Radio is Free
  Records / CDs are not

             If the Internet is the New
                    ...
EU Radio in 3-5 years

 • 100% digital (in all its variations), and 50%
   converged with the Net
 • All stations everywhe...
EU Radio in 10 years
 • The term “Radio” simply refers to
   ‘curated programming’
 • Public radio is the #1 curator of a ...
The trigger factors:

    • Highspeed Wireless Internet everywhere
    • WiBro in the car
    • 4G Wireless cell phone net...
What is good about Radio?
 What is good about Audio on the Internet?


                               ***
                ...
Radio’s Future is on the
     Internet, with the Net
     Generation, and with fully
     integrated Content Delivery


  ...
The 5 Inevitables


    1.Radio must support time-shifting

    2.Radio must support space-shifting

    3.Radio must supp...
Radio is a perfect fit for the experience economy




                                              Gerd Leonhard Music & ...
This is where the growth is




                               Gerd Leonhard Music & Media Futurist www.mediafuturist.com
...
The new currencies in Media


 • Getting (and keeping) attention
 • Trust
 • Influence
 • Reputation



                  ...
And advertising follows the trends of
mass-personalization
Souce: Booz Hamilton Report




                              G...
From
  Impression to
  Relevance

                           Gerd Leonhard Music & Media Futurist www.mediafuturist.com
Mo...
Integrate the audience! Provide a
platform!




           The NYT went ‘open access’ 3 days ago - after
           mainta...
You must take Radio’s walls down,
too:
• Archive Access
• Web-based access on all platforms
• Radio as social medium
     ...
Changes in the content industries

         Content 1.0            Content 2.0
                 Distribution      Attentio...
So if I ran the circus, I would...
 • Widgetize my radio stations (syndicate radio shows
   via embedded players), turn th...
Upcoming SlideShare
Loading in...5
×

Music2: The Future of Radio (media futurist Gerd Leonhard)

4,086

Published on

Media Futurist Gerd Leonhard's thoughts on the Future of Radio (part of online promotion for the new Music2.0 book)

1 Comment
4 Likes
Statistics
Notes
No Downloads
Views
Total Views
4,086
On Slideshare
0
From Embeds
0
Number of Embeds
1
Actions
Shares
0
Downloads
339
Comments
1
Likes
4
Embeds 0
No embeds

No notes for slide

Music2: The Future of Radio (media futurist Gerd Leonhard)

  1. 1. Gerd Leonhard Presentation at RadioDays 2007 Music 2.0 and the Future of Radio? www.mediafuturist.com Gerd Leonhard www.mediafuturist.com Monday, January 21, 2008 1
  2. 2. Radio used to have a Monopoly in Attention! Gerd Leonhard Music & Media Futurist www.mediafuturist.com Monday, January 21, 2008 2
  3. 3. The problem is not the new ideas - but how to get rid of the old ones. So let’s start there. Gerd Leonhard Music & Media Futurist www.mediafuturist.com Monday, January 21, 2008 3
  4. 4. Radio today: competition coming from all sides Social Networks and Blogs Car Audio Systems Wimax Music Ipod Podcasts iphone Satellite Radio Mobile Music What’s good about all this: Choice What’s bad about all this: The Paradox of Choice Gerd Leonhard Music & Media Futurist www.mediafuturist.com Monday, January 21, 2008 4
  5. 5. Gerd Leonhard Music & Media Futurist www.mediafuturist.com Monday, January 21, 2008 5
  6. 6. Me, September 2007 Friction is Fiction Gerd Leonhard Music & Media Futurist www.mediafuturist.com Monday, January 21, 2008 6
  7. 7. SMS +41 79 79 353 84 Across the world, 1.1 Billion People use the Internet, 1.4 Billion watch TV, and 2.2 Billion use Mobile Phones So HOW will RADIO be consumed in the Future, and what is its value proposition (both for music and for audio) Gerd Leonhard www.mediafuturist.com Monday, January 21, 2008 7
  8. 8. The Net Generation: I program my media - it does not program me! Gerd Leonhard Music & Media Futurist www.mediafuturist.com Monday, January 21, 2008 8
  9. 9. The key drivers of Change • Broadband • Mobility • Social Networks • Blogs and User Generated Content (UGC) • Total Fragmentation of the Audiences • Globalization (and localization) • Convergence Gerd Leonhard www.mediafuturist.com Monday, January 21, 2008 9
  10. 10. Gerd Leonhard www.mediafuturist.com Monday, January 21, 2008 10
  11. 11. Gerd Leonhard www.mediafuturist.com Monday, January 21, 2008 11
  12. 12. W e a r e h ea d i ng int o a a cc el e ra t i ng c o nverg enc e o f A ud i o a nd V i d eo . Gerd Leonhard Music & Media Futurist www.mediafuturist.com Monday, January 21, 2008 12
  13. 13. And in advertising By 2008, online advertising spending in the US is expected to surpass radio advertising spending Gerd Leonhard Music & Media Futurist www.mediafuturist.com Monday, January 21, 2008 13
  14. 14. A few shocking facts from the U.S. Gerd Leonhard Music & Media Futurist www.mediafuturist.com Monday, January 21, 2008 14
  15. 15. In the US: tuning out of Radio is guaranteed Gerd Leonhard Music & Media Futurist www.mediafuturist.com Monday, January 21, 2008 15
  16. 16. Radio ad revenues are not going away - they just won’t be growing. Gerd Leonhard Music & Media Futurist www.mediafuturist.com Monday, January 21, 2008 16
  17. 17. and then comes... Gerd Leonhard Music & Media Futurist www.mediafuturist.com Monday, January 21, 2008 17
  18. 18. ‘How’ will matter less and less. ‘What’ will matter more and more Gerd Leonhard www.mediafuturist.com Monday, January 21, 2008 18
  19. 19. Remember when Radio had a Monopoly in Attention? Gerd Leonhard Music & Media Futurist www.mediafuturist.com Monday, January 21, 2008 19
  20. 20. Consumers inevitably use the best innovations that are available - legal or not Gerd Leonhard Music & Media Futurist www.mediafuturist.com Monday, January 21, 2008 20
  21. 21. three Gerd Leonhard Music & Media Futurist www.mediafuturist.com Monday, January 21, 2008 21
  22. 22. Imagine a page, a button, a Canvas where you simply put all the stations that you want to listen to. A canvas that you can always have with you (see Netvibes, iGoogle), no matter how you receive the content. Radio fills the need to filter Choice. Gerd Leonhard Music & Media Futurist www.mediafuturist.com Monday, January 21, 2008 22
  23. 23. Consumers are, now more than ever before, seeking consolidated, trustworthy content, recognition and community - even more when it comes to mobile and Internet entertainment This is still the biggest opportunity in Radio. Gerd Leonhard Music & Media Futurist www.mediafuturist.com Monday, January 21, 2008 23
  24. 24. New technologies often disrupt ecosystems but always make the market bigger Gerd Leonhard Music & Media Futurist www.mediafuturist.com Monday, January 21, 2008 24
  25. 25. The De-Walling: • Music formats will be either open or 100% compatible - DRM is the past • Music as a service will become a default setting, and the ‘sell units’ paradigm is ending • Creation of new revenue flows will be more important than controlling distribution • The People formerly known as Consumers are gaining more power by the minute • Music licensing will be drastically simplified Isn’t Radio the definition of Music as a Service? Gerd Leonhard www.mediafuturist.com Monday, January 21, 2008 25
  26. 26. Thanks to the Net Generation & the Digital Natives, Social Networks on the Internet are the Next Radio Gerd Leonhard Music & Media Futurist www.mediafuturist.com Monday, January 21, 2008 26
  27. 27. Global Social Networking is already bigger than Radio in the U.S. Gerd Leonhard Music & Media Futurist www.mediafuturist.com Monday, January 21, 2008 27
  28. 28. The People formerly known as Listeners (aka Consumers) Gerd Leonhard Music & Media Futurist www.mediafuturist.com Monday, January 21, 2008 28
  29. 29. The Medium formerly known as Radio Gerd Leonhard Music & Media Futurist www.mediafuturist.com Monday, January 21, 2008 29
  30. 30. Soon, most of them will get most of their ‘Radio’ via any digital network - the Internet dominates Gerd Leonhard Music & Media Futurist www.mediafuturist.com Monday, January 21, 2008 30
  31. 31. Why is your station not broadcasting on Facebook, Lunarstorm, Sulekha.net or Orkut? Gerd Leonhard Music & Media Futurist www.mediafuturist.com Monday, January 21, 2008 31
  32. 32. Because In all Media, Push is becoming Pull Gerd Leonhard Music & Media Futurist www.mediafuturist.com Monday, January 21, 2008 32
  33. 33. Just different words for the same thing... Broadcasting Streaming Tubesocking Public Playlisting Performance Download Listening Streamripping PodcatchingCopy Buffering Caching Digital Renting Phonographic Delivery (DPD) Gerd Leonhard Music & Media Futurist www.mediafuturist.com Monday, January 21, 2008 33
  34. 34. The most important development in the Context of Radio Licensing is The Flat Rate for Digital Music Gerd Leonhard Music & Media Futurist www.mediafuturist.com Monday, January 21, 2008 34
  35. 35. And for Public Radio The Net Generation will not continue to pay a public Radio or TV License without archiving, time-shifting, place-shifting and device shifting - i.e. with build-in DELIVERY options Gerd Leonhard Music & Media Futurist www.mediafuturist.com Monday, January 21, 2008 35
  36. 36. The Reality is: • The Internet is a Giant Copy Machine • Digital Radio IS Distribution • From the listeners standpoint, Digital Radio MUST offer time / place / device shifting which is... Distribution • Case in point: RSS and the Google Reader Gerd Leonhard Music & Media Futurist www.mediafuturist.com Monday, January 21, 2008 36
  37. 37. The bottom line: In media, Friction is now Fiction Gerd Leonhard Music & Media Futurist www.mediafuturist.com Monday, January 21, 2008 37
  38. 38. Very soon - listening IS receiving Gerd Leonhard Music & Media Futurist www.mediafuturist.com Monday, January 21, 2008 38
  39. 39. A Logic Challenge Radio is Free Records / CDs are not If the Internet is the New Radio - are Copies are ‘free’ ? Gerd Leonhard Music & Media Futurist www.mediafuturist.com Monday, January 21, 2008 39
  40. 40. EU Radio in 3-5 years • 100% digital (in all its variations), and 50% converged with the Net • All stations everywhere,anytime, any way • Video and Audio converge • Community features are a standard • Geography fades, borders become soft • License is both questioned and then expanded (based on a Flat Rate for Digital Music) • Advertising2.0 emerges • Public Radio offers full archives on-demand Gerd Leonhard Music & Media Futurist www.mediafuturist.com Monday, January 21, 2008 40
  41. 41. EU Radio in 10 years • The term “Radio” simply refers to ‘curated programming’ • Public radio is the #1 curator of a huge digital library • The ‘Copy versus Performance’ (listen versus own) distinction is over • Everything is on demand - few or nothing remains scheduled Gerd Leonhard Music & Media Futurist www.mediafuturist.com Monday, January 21, 2008 41
  42. 42. The trigger factors: • Highspeed Wireless Internet everywhere • WiBro in the car • 4G Wireless cell phone networks fully deployed How long? • Radios with WLAN chips • Cell phones with DAB receivers (and WLAN) • Mobile computing devices that talk effortlessly to each other • Web5.0 as easy as a TV remote control Gerd Leonhard Music & Media Futurist www.mediafuturist.com Monday, January 21, 2008 42
  43. 43. What is good about Radio? What is good about Audio on the Internet? *** *** ** • Free or feels like free • Ubiquitous * • Easy to use for anyone ** • Does not require engagement *** • Trusted, professional curators *** • Known brands * • Local context • Strong tradition • Great way to discover music Gerd Leonhard Music & Media Futurist www.mediafuturist.com Monday, January 21, 2008 43
  44. 44. Radio’s Future is on the Internet, with the Net Generation, and with fully integrated Content Delivery Gerd Leonhard Music & Media Futurist www.mediafuturist.com Monday, January 21, 2008 44
  45. 45. The 5 Inevitables 1.Radio must support time-shifting 2.Radio must support space-shifting 3.Radio must support sharing 4.Radio must support interactivity 5.Radio must support community Gerd Leonhard Music & Media Futurist www.mediafuturist.com Monday, January 21, 2008 45
  46. 46. Radio is a perfect fit for the experience economy Gerd Leonhard Music & Media Futurist www.mediafuturist.com Monday, January 21, 2008 46
  47. 47. This is where the growth is Gerd Leonhard Music & Media Futurist www.mediafuturist.com Monday, January 21, 2008 47
  48. 48. The new currencies in Media • Getting (and keeping) attention • Trust • Influence • Reputation Gerd Leonhard Music & Media Futurist www.mediafuturist.com Monday, January 21, 2008 48
  49. 49. And advertising follows the trends of mass-personalization Souce: Booz Hamilton Report Gerd Leonhard Music & Media Futurist www.mediafuturist.com Monday, January 21, 2008 49
  50. 50. From Impression to Relevance Gerd Leonhard Music & Media Futurist www.mediafuturist.com Monday, January 21, 2008 50
  51. 51. Integrate the audience! Provide a platform! The NYT went ‘open access’ 3 days ago - after maintaining a wall for the past 5 years (incl. RSS) Gerd Leonhard Music & Media Futurist www.mediafuturist.com Monday, January 21, 2008 51
  52. 52. You must take Radio’s walls down, too: • Archive Access • Web-based access on all platforms • Radio as social medium Don’t hide behind any wall. Gerd Leonhard Music & Media Futurist www.mediafuturist.com Monday, January 21, 2008 52
  53. 53. Changes in the content industries Content 1.0 Content 2.0 Distribution Attention Shelf Space Mind-share Mass Marketing Niche Marketing Monolog Dialog Influence & Control Reputation Control Attention & Trust Gerd Leonhard, Music & Media Futurist Monday, January 21, 2008 53
  54. 54. So if I ran the circus, I would... • Widgetize my radio stations (syndicate radio shows via embedded players), turn them into channels on social networks • Turn my listeners into active network members, roll out Engagement programs • Offer archives of everything, no matter what • Mobilize my radio station • Demand extended licensing grants, and one-stop licensing • Lobby for a digital music flat rate • Push converged service: audio, video, text • Build my brand and become an EXPERIENCE Gerd Leonhard Music & Media Futurist www.mediafuturist.com Monday, January 21, 2008 54
  1. A particular slide catching your eye?

    Clipping is a handy way to collect important slides you want to go back to later.

×