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We are all struggling with...

Br o a d b a n d C u l tu r e

Juggling Rivers of Information & Media
Broadband
C u l tu r e

The global economic fabric has changed
Many trusted old business
models seem to have
suddenly stopped working

Things have dramatically changed
We are entering a creative, social and collaborative era
Many of us are more concerned with global issues such
as Energy & Environment
Many of us are increasingly more concerned with
Self-Fulfillment

The Switch from Closed to Open: Software

The switch from Closed to Open: News Media

The switch from Closed to Open: Elsewhere

Decentralization vs Destination
Centralized >>> Decentralized
Microsoft / Windows Google
MTV Youtube
Tower Records / HMV Spotify / Last.fm
Traditional Telecoms Skype
Cable TV Internet TV / IPTV

Media Consumption Trends
Music Video Games Books Mags & Print
Percentage of Revenues from Digital Services *my own estimates
100%
75%
50%
25%
0%
2008 2009 2010 2012 2015

In Media, no doubt...

Meaning
To
From

Openness
Trust
Control

New Economic Trend-Tags
• Believe Economy (perception rules)
• Trust Economy
• Attention Economy
• Experience Economy
• Attraction Economy

Luxury (re)-defined
• In economics, a luxury good is a good for which demand
increases more than proportionally as income rises, in
contrast to a \"necessity good\", for which demand increases
less than proportionally as income rises.
• Another market characteristic of luxury goods is their very
high sensitivity to economic upturns and downturns,
high profit margins as well as prices, and very tightly
controlled brands.
• Conspicuous consumption: the lavish spending on
goods and services acquired mainly for the purpose of
displaying income or wealth...a means of attaining or
maintaining social status.

Potential Future Luxury Items
100
100
Time
Choices 50
50
10
5
Was Is Will Be

A trend? Luxury for myself
Plain and demonstrative extravagance
may no longer be the main goal
Real Privacy becomes a luxury
Personal transformation is becoming
more important than extroverted
presentation

Looking at this Future, I would like to ask:
• Will Luxury still really be something that
is ‘not a necessity’?
• Will the primary purpose of Luxury
products and services still be to display
income or wealth?
• Will Luxury brands still be able to
maintain tight control over everything,
and prosper at the same time?

Leading luxury brands are Icons
<>
The Internet creates... a
leveled playing field.

In your business, how important is

A table of...challenges
Maybe?
Was
Product Centric Innovation User-Centric Innovation
Extreme Control over Brand Shared, Open Brand
Exclusivity Inclusive Specialness
Retail Stores Retail Spaces (RL, Web)

had
Luxury brands have their own ecosystems

A tough question for Luxury Brands
Exclusion drives value
Inclusion drives value

Music Industry Learnings

Comparing the the Music Industry and the Luxury Business
• Strong emphasis on ‘creative genius’
• Strong emphasis on controlling every step
of the process, supply chains & distribution
• ‘We know what’s best’, top-down approach
• Iconic status of products, and the brand
itself

Reviewing the assumptions...

Eight of ten purchases are emotionally driven.
t?
n
e
m
n
o
ir
v
n
E
ry
o
s
n
e
-s
i
lt
u
M

Luxury is an Experience - so how
could this happen Online?
Yes... Touch!

And
Source: MetheMedia.com

Can Luxury’s aura of conviction
and exclusivity be preserved on
the Web?
•Probably: Yes - if you put the same care
into your web presence than you put into
your products.
•How about exclusive web communities
with exclusive memberships?
•How about exclusive content?

How about...
LuxuryTube
Luxury.fm
LuxuryPeople
LuxuryOS?

Remember?
“To bring our customers into our world, to
convince them via the product.”
Analysts estimate that online luxury revenues
account for below 5% of total global sales.
Source: WSJ
94 % of the ultra affluent in the United
States regularly buy products online
Source: 2008 Unity Marketing study

Exclusivity... Online?

Let’s talk about

Instruments of Growth...

Some ideas on Brands 2.0
A brand is no longer a static ‘thing’
A brand is connected, living entity
(i.e. part of an ecosystem)
Brands are questioned entities, and
Increasingly transparent... and
Soon, so much harder to control
In the near future, a brand's equity may well not rely on how
well it is controlled, but on how well it is shared...?

New kinds of Brand Narratives...

So
c ia
l me
dia

Social Media is becoming... CRM

Social Media is just a component of
Social Business

Information > Conversation
Interruption > Engagement
Annoyance > Entertainment
This is an Ad > This is Content
“Great products that have marketing
embedded in them” (J. Hicks, CPB)

“Great products that have marketing
embedded in them” (J. Hicks, CPB)

Some 2009 Advertising Trends
• Mobile Advertising will explode
• Twitter will enter advertising
• RSS & feeds will finally go mainstream
• Podcasts (audio & video) keep increasing in reach
• Word of mouth / mouse will continue to increase in
importance, and so will UGC as a key driver
• Display advertising will continue to decrease,
spending on Search (Social!) will grow
dramatically

The Future is not about Technology...
Emerging Cultural Practices

The $$ always follow the Habit-Shifts
Track and really understand the
key Habit-Shifts and you’ll find
the new revenue opportunities

What remains crucial:
being real i.e. authentic,
validated and certified

Summary

Thanks for listening!
★email me at
gerd@mediafuturist.com
★twitter.com/gleonhard
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