Gerd Leonhard International Economic Forum St Petersburg 2008 Future Of Copyright

Slide 1: www.mediafuturist.com Gerd Leonhard gerd@mediafuturist.com www.mediafuturist.com The Future of Media & Copyright - and what it could mean for Russia

Slide 2: www.mediafuturist.com Digital Media Sharing: We are only at the Beginning! The rest of this Iceberg will emerge much quicker than you may think

Slide 3: Remember this? www.mediafuturist.com It really didn’t take very long!

Slide 4: www.mediafuturist.com

Slide 5: www.mediafuturist.com Culture

Slide 6: We are connected. We share. We make www.mediafuturist.com ‘content’ too. We are Media. We pay when we have Control and Choice.

Slide 7: www.mediafuturist.com Sharing Getting Attention for Making available Giving access to

Slide 8: www.mediafuturist.com Can you engage when you protect too much? Can you get Attention and Trust (and the Resulting Revenues) when you force the conversation? Can you make money from copyrighted works that effectively can’t be legally used for anything?

Slide 9: A few things to remember www.mediafuturist.com It’s not about us: it’s about our Future, our Kids - the Digital Natives The tradition of using ‘Total Control over Content’ as a main instrument of Economic Growth in the Media Sectors is no longer feasible or desirable in a networked and digitized world With, very soon, 4 Billion mobile devices connect to the Internet we will clearly not suceed by adding new layers of control and enforcement or by putting friction back into a liquid system Note: this is a great opportunity for Russia: develop next- generation business models for ‘Content’ & Media

Slide 10: www.mediafuturist.com Control versus User Empowerment - who wins?

Slide 11: www.mediafuturist.com We have it ‘upside down’ if we intend to generate new revenues with more Control Copyright

Slide 12: www.mediafuturist.com This needs to be widened.... PERMISSION Usage Right Access Right Copyright

Slide 13: www.mediafuturist.com Until now, equaling media content and IP rights with real, physical PROPERTY RIGHTS seemed logical because of: Scarcity and high cost of frequencies, distribution, transport, shelf space… i.e. physical limitations Control over most media distribution was feasible Consumers could only ‘take it or leave it’ More protection & control meant, mostly, more income (but only for the industry, really)

Slide 14: But now.... www.mediafuturist.com

Slide 15: Fueled by... www.mediafuturist.com Drastic Increase in User Empowerment and Engagement (UGC, Social Media) New economies coming online very quickly Cheap and very powerful mobile devices Wireless Broadband Explosion

Slide 16: www.mediafuturist.com No more scarcity

Slide 17: ...now we need to think again www.mediafuturist.com 150% increase of P2P file-sharing of music (07/08) USB / hard-drive swapping exploding Music DRM has proven useless for protection purposes, and detrimental to user adoption (only 2% of users engaged!) Content sharing on social networks is #1 activity, 820M people! In Music, there are now 100s of new, unlicensed Streaming-On- Demand services available (the next radio) 95% of all new media ventures deemed ‘un-licensable’ under current provisions and schemes In France, UK, Germany: desperate measures to get ISPs to fix this problem - but do we need to institute a digital police-state to enforce a broken business model?

Slide 18: www.mediafuturist.com In Russia and the BRIC countries, the traditional 100% Copyright-centric business models probably won’t work Pay-per-unit or per-view is not economically feasible Users are ‘leapfrogging technology’ (e.g. from tape to MP3s on mobile phones) Make-it-scarce and enforcement model will incentivize and even reward(!) users that circumvent it Technological protection measures are really not effective Wireless broadband on cheap mobile devices will make today’s problems look like child’s play

Slide 19: www.mediafuturist.com Media & Content is now in the Network - and so is the new money!

Slide 20: www.mediafuturist.com Particularly for Russia, I would propose an alternate approach to the traditional copyright enforcement routine: Access & Usage Rights Flat Rates & Bundles and other new Licenses based on the Emerging Cultural Practices (as we did with Radio!)

Slide 21: In detail www.mediafuturist.com • License access to Networks, not copies (that will be the upsell!) • Like Radio, Digital Music must be blanked-licensed for online use (followed by video) • Remuneration needs to be based on overall revenue sharing, not (just) copies • Note: Real property can only be ‘lend’ or licensed once, but IP / Content / Media access licensing is unlimited • Ad-supported models will propel this development, but are not the only method of monetization

Slide 22: www.mediafuturist.com For Music, this is already happening: Google in China: search licensed for music TDC in DK: internet access bundled with music Nokia Comes with Music Last.fm / CBS free listening on-demand

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Slide 24: www.mediafuturist.com Thanks for your time! Gerd Leonhard gerd@mediafuturist.com www.mediafuturist.com Download this pdf later today at www.mediafuturist.com