www.mediafuturist.com
Gerd Leonhard
gerd@mediafuturist.com
www.mediafuturist.com
The Future of Media & Copyright
- and what it could mean for Russia

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Digital
Media Sharing:
We are only at the
Beginning!
The rest of this
Iceberg will emerge
much quicker than
you may think

Remember this? www.mediafuturist.com
It really didn’t take very long!

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Culture

We are connected. We share. We make www.mediafuturist.com
‘content’ too. We are Media. We pay
when we have Control and Choice.

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Sharing
Getting Attention for
Making available
Giving access to

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Can you engage when you protect too much?
Can you get Attention and Trust (and the
Resulting Revenues) when you force the
conversation?
Can you make money from copyrighted
works that effectively can’t be legally
used for anything?

A few things to remember
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It’s not about us: it’s about our Future, our Kids - the Digital Natives
The tradition of using ‘Total Control over Content’ as a main
instrument of Economic Growth in the Media Sectors is no longer
feasible or desirable in a networked and digitized world
With, very soon, 4 Billion mobile devices connect to the Internet
we will clearly not suceed by adding new layers of control and
enforcement or by putting friction back into a liquid system
Note: this is a great opportunity for Russia: develop next-
generation business models for ‘Content’ & Media

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Control versus User Empowerment - who wins?

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We have it ‘upside down’ if we intend to
generate new revenues with more Control
Copyright

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This needs to be widened....
PERMISSION
Usage Right
Access Right
Copyright

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Until now, equaling media content and IP
rights with real, physical PROPERTY RIGHTS
seemed logical because of:
Scarcity and high cost of frequencies, distribution,
transport, shelf space… i.e. physical limitations
Control over most media distribution was feasible
Consumers could only ‘take it or leave it’
More protection & control meant, mostly, more
income (but only for the industry, really)

But now.... www.mediafuturist.com

Fueled by... www.mediafuturist.com
Drastic Increase in
User Empowerment and Engagement (UGC, Social Media)
New economies
coming online very
quickly
Cheap and very
powerful mobile
devices
Wireless
Broadband
Explosion

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No more scarcity

...now we need to think again www.mediafuturist.com
150% increase of P2P file-sharing of music (07/08)
USB / hard-drive swapping exploding
Music DRM has proven useless for protection purposes, and
detrimental to user adoption (only 2% of users engaged!)
Content sharing on social networks is #1 activity, 820M people!
In Music, there are now 100s of new, unlicensed Streaming-On-
Demand services available (the next radio)
95% of all new media ventures deemed ‘un-licensable’ under
current provisions and schemes
In France, UK, Germany: desperate measures to get ISPs
to fix this problem - but do we need to institute a digital
police-state to enforce a broken business model?

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In Russia and the BRIC countries, the traditional 100%
Copyright-centric business models probably won’t work
Pay-per-unit or per-view is not economically feasible
Users are ‘leapfrogging technology’ (e.g. from tape to
MP3s on mobile phones)
Make-it-scarce and enforcement model will incentivize
and even reward(!) users that circumvent it
Technological protection measures are really not effective
Wireless broadband on cheap mobile devices will
make today’s problems look like child’s play

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Media & Content is
now in the Network
- and so is the new
money!

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Particularly for Russia, I would propose an alternate approach
to the traditional copyright enforcement routine:
Access & Usage Rights
Flat Rates & Bundles
and other new Licenses based on the
Emerging Cultural Practices
(as we did with Radio!)

In detail
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• License access to Networks, not copies (that will be
the upsell!)
• Like Radio, Digital Music must be blanked-licensed
for online use (followed by video)
• Remuneration needs to be based on overall revenue
sharing, not (just) copies
• Note: Real property can only be ‘lend’ or licensed
once, but IP / Content / Media access licensing is
unlimited
• Ad-supported models will propel this development,
but are not the only method of monetization

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For Music, this is already happening:
Google in China: search licensed for music
TDC in DK: internet access bundled with music
Nokia Comes with Music
Last.fm / CBS free listening on-demand

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Thanks for your time!
Gerd Leonhard
gerd@mediafuturist.com
www.mediafuturist.com
Download this pdf later today at www.mediafuturist.com