Gerd Leonhard
Presentation at RadioDays 2007
Future or no future for radio?
www.mediafuturist.com
New book out next week:
Free at
www.endofcontrol.com
Gerd Leonhard www.mediafuturist.com
Tuesday, March 4, 2008 1

Questions? SMS +41 79 79 353 84
Radio today: competition coming from all sides
Social Networks and Blogs
Car Audio Systems
Wimax Music
Ipod
Podcasts
iphone
Satellite Radio
Mobile Music
What’s good about all this: Choice
What’s bad about all this: The Paradox of Choice
Gerd Leonhard Music & Media Futurist www.mediafuturist.com
Tuesday, March 4, 2008 2

SMS +41 79 79 353 84
Across the world, 1.1 Billion
People use the Internet, 1.4
Billion watch TV, and 2.2 Billion
use Mobile Phones
So HOW will RADIO be consumed in the Future,
and what is its value proposition (both for music and for audio)
Gerd Leonhard www.mediafuturist.com
Tuesday, March 4, 2008 3

The Net Generation: Questions? SMS +41 79 79 353 84
I program my media
- it does not program
me!
Gerd Leonhard Music & Media Futurist www.mediafuturist.com
Tuesday, March 4, 2008 4

The key drivers of Change SMS +41 79 79 353 84
• Broadband
• Mobility
• Social Networks
• Blogs and User Generated Content (UGC)
• Total Fragmentation of the Audiences
• Globalization (and localization)
• Convergence
Gerd Leonhard www.mediafuturist.com
Tuesday, March 4, 2008 5

SMS +41 79 79 353 84
Gerd Leonhard www.mediafuturist.com
Tuesday, March 4, 2008 6

SMS +41 79 79 353 84
Gerd Leonhard www.mediafuturist.com
Tuesday, March 4, 2008 7

Questions? SMS +41 79 79 353 84
W e a r e h ea d i ng int o a a cc el e ra t i ng
c o nverg enc e o f A ud i o a nd V i d eo .
Gerd Leonhard Music & Media Futurist www.mediafuturist.com
Tuesday, March 4, 2008 8

A few shocking facts from the U.S. Questions? SMS +41 79 79 353 84
Gerd Leonhard Music & Media Futurist www.mediafuturist.com
Tuesday, March 4, 2008 9

Questions? SMS +41 79 79 353 84
In the US: tuning
out of Radio is
guaranteed
Gerd Leonhard Music & Media Futurist www.mediafuturist.com
Tuesday, March 4, 2008 10

Questions? SMS +41 79 79 353 84
Radio ad
revenues
are not
going
away -
they just
won’t be
growing.
Gerd Leonhard Music & Media Futurist www.mediafuturist.com
Tuesday, March 4, 2008 11

and then comes...
Gerd Leonhard Music & Media Futurist www.mediafuturist.com
Tuesday, March 4, 2008 12

SMS +41 79 79 353 84
‘How’ will matter less and less. ‘What’ will matter more and more
Gerd Leonhard www.mediafuturist.com
Tuesday, March 4, 2008 13

Questions? SMS +41 79 79 353 84
Remember when Radio had a
Monopoly in
Attention?
Gerd Leonhard Music & Media Futurist www.mediafuturist.com
Tuesday, March 4, 2008 14

Questions? SMS +41 79 79 353 84
three
Gerd Leonhard Music & Media Futurist www.mediafuturist.com
Tuesday, March 4, 2008 15

Questions? SMS +41 79 79 353 84
Imagine a page, a button, a Canvas where
you simply put all the stations that you
want to listen to.
A canvas that you can always have with
you (see Netvibes, iGoogle), no matter
how you receive the content.
Radio fills the need
to filter Choice.
Gerd Leonhard Music & Media Futurist www.mediafuturist.com
Tuesday, March 4, 2008 16

Questions? SMS +41 79 79 353 84
Consumers are, now more than ever before,
seeking consolidated, trustworthy content,
recognition and community - even more when it
comes to mobile and Internet entertainment
This is still the biggest
opportunity in Radio.
Gerd Leonhard Music & Media Futurist www.mediafuturist.com
Tuesday, March 4, 2008 17

Questions? SMS +41 79 79 353 84
New technologies often disrupt ecosystems
but always make the market bigger
Gerd Leonhard Music & Media Futurist www.mediafuturist.com
Tuesday, March 4, 2008 18

The De-Walling: SMS +41 79 79 353 84
• Music formats will be either open or 100% compatible -
DRM is the past
• Music as a service will become a default setting, and
the ‘sell units’ paradigm is ending
• Creation of new revenue flows will be more important
than controlling distribution
• The People formerly known as Consumers are gaining
more power by the minute
• Music licensing will be drastically simplified
Isn’t Radio the definition
of Music as a Service?
Gerd Leonhard www.mediafuturist.com
Tuesday, March 4, 2008 19

Thanks to the Net Generation & the
Digital Natives,
Social Networks on the
Internet are the
Next Radio
Gerd Leonhard Music & Media Futurist www.mediafuturist.com
Tuesday, March 4, 2008 20

Questions? SMS +41 79 79 353 84
Global Social Networking is already bigger than Radio in the U.S.
Gerd Leonhard Music & Media Futurist www.mediafuturist.com
Tuesday, March 4, 2008 21

Questions? SMS +41 79 79 353 84
The People formerly
known as Listeners
(aka Consumers)
Gerd Leonhard Music & Media Futurist www.mediafuturist.com
Tuesday, March 4, 2008 22

Questions? SMS +41 79 79 353 84
The Medium formerly
known as Radio
Gerd Leonhard Music & Media Futurist www.mediafuturist.com
Tuesday, March 4, 2008 23

Questions? SMS +41 79 79 353 84
Soon, most of them will
get most of their ‘Radio’
via any digital network
- the Internet dominates
Gerd Leonhard Music & Media Futurist www.mediafuturist.com
Tuesday, March 4, 2008 24

Questions? SMS +41 79 79 353 84
Why is your station not broadcasting on
Facebook, Lunarstorm, Sulekha.net or Orkut?
Gerd Leonhard Music & Media Futurist www.mediafuturist.com
Tuesday, March 4, 2008 25

Questions? SMS +41 79 79 353 84
Because
In all Media, Push is
becoming Pull
Gerd Leonhard Music & Media Futurist www.mediafuturist.com
Tuesday, March 4, 2008 26

Just different words for the same thing...
Questions? SMS +41 79 79 353 84
Broadcasting
Streaming Tubesocking
Public Playlisting
Performance Download
Listening Streamripping
PodcatchingCopy
Buffering
Caching Digital
Renting Phonographic
Delivery (DPD)
Gerd Leonhard Music & Media Futurist www.mediafuturist.com
Tuesday, March 4, 2008 27

Questions? SMS +41 79 79 353 84
The most important development in the
Context of Radio Licensing is The
Flat Rate for Digital Music
Gerd Leonhard Music & Media Futurist www.mediafuturist.com
Tuesday, March 4, 2008 28

And for Public Radio Questions? SMS +41 79 79 353 84
The Net Generation will not
continue to pay a public
Radio or TV License without
archiving, time-shifting,
place-shifting and device
shifting - i.e. with build-in
DELIVERY options
Gerd Leonhard Music & Media Futurist www.mediafuturist.com
Tuesday, March 4, 2008 29

The Reality is: Questions? SMS +41 79 79 353 84
• The Internet is a Giant Copy Machine
• Digital Radio IS Distribution
• From the listeners standpoint, Digital Radio
MUST offer time / place / device shifting
which is... Distribution
• Case in point: RSS and the Google Reader
Gerd Leonhard Music & Media Futurist www.mediafuturist.com
Tuesday, March 4, 2008 30

Questions? SMS +41 79 79 353 84
The bottom line:
In media, Friction is now
Fiction
Gerd Leonhard Music & Media Futurist www.mediafuturist.com
Tuesday, March 4, 2008 31

Questions? SMS +41 79 79 353 84
Very soon -
listening IS receiving
Gerd Leonhard Music & Media Futurist www.mediafuturist.com
Tuesday, March 4, 2008 32

A Logic Challenge Questions? SMS +41 79 79 353 84
Radio is Free
Records / CDs are not
If the Internet is the New
Radio -
are Copies are ‘free’ ?
Gerd Leonhard Music & Media Futurist www.mediafuturist.com
Tuesday, March 4, 2008 33

EU Radio in 3-5 years Questions? SMS +41 79 79 353 84
• 100% digital (in all its variations), and 50%
converged with the Net
• All stations everywhere,anytime, any way
• Video and Audio converge
• Community features are a standard
• Geography fades, borders become soft
• License is both questioned and then expanded
(based on a Flat Rate for Digital Music)
• Advertising2.0 emerges
• Public Radio offers full archives on-demand
Gerd Leonhard Music & Media Futurist www.mediafuturist.com
Tuesday, March 4, 2008 34

EU Radio in 10 years Questions? SMS +41 79 79 353 84
• The term “Radio” simply refers to
‘curated programming’
• Public radio is the #1 curator of a huge
digital library
• The ‘Copy versus Performance’ (listen
versus own) distinction is over
• Everything is on demand - few or
nothing remains scheduled
Gerd Leonhard Music & Media Futurist www.mediafuturist.com
Tuesday, March 4, 2008 35

The trigger factors: Questions? SMS +41 79 79 353 84
• Highspeed Wireless Internet everywhere
• WiBro in the car
• 4G Wireless cell phone networks fully
deployed How
long?
• Radios with WLAN chips
• Cell phones with DAB receivers (and WLAN)
• Mobile computing devices that talk
effortlessly to each other
• Web5.0 as easy as a TV remote control
Gerd Leonhard Music & Media Futurist www.mediafuturist.com
Tuesday, March 4, 2008 36

What is good about Radio? Questions? SMS +41 79 79 353 84
What is good about Audio on the Internet?
***
*** **
• Free or feels like free
• Ubiquitous
*
• Easy to use for anyone
**
• Does not require engagement
***
• Trusted, professional curators
***
• Known brands
*
• Local context
• Strong tradition
• Great way to discover music
Gerd Leonhard Music & Media Futurist www.mediafuturist.com
Tuesday, March 4, 2008 37

Questions? SMS +41 79 79 353 84
Radio’s Future is on the
Internet, with the Net
Generation, and with fully
integrated Content Delivery
Gerd Leonhard Music & Media Futurist www.mediafuturist.com
Tuesday, March 4, 2008 38

The 5 Inevitables Questions? SMS +41 79 79 353 84
1.Radio must support time-shifting
2.Radio must support space-shifting
3.Radio must support sharing
4.Radio must support interactivity
5.Radio must support community
Gerd Leonhard Music & Media Futurist www.mediafuturist.com
Tuesday, March 4, 2008 39

Radio is a perfect fit for the experience economy Questions? SMS +41 79 79 353 84
Gerd Leonhard Music & Media Futurist www.mediafuturist.com
Tuesday, March 4, 2008 40

This is where the growth is Questions? SMS +41 79 79 353 84
Gerd Leonhard Music & Media Futurist www.mediafuturist.com
Tuesday, March 4, 2008 41

The new currencies in Media Questions? SMS +41 79 79 353 84
• Getting (and keeping) attention
• Trust
• Influence
• Reputation
Gerd Leonhard Music & Media Futurist www.mediafuturist.com
Tuesday, March 4, 2008 42

Questions? SMS +41 79 79 353 84
And advertising follows the trends of
mass-personalization
Souce: Booz Hamilton Report
Gerd Leonhard Music & Media Futurist www.mediafuturist.com
Tuesday, March 4, 2008 43

Questions? SMS +41 79 79 353 84
From
Impression to
Relevance
Gerd Leonhard Music & Media Futurist www.mediafuturist.com
Tuesday, March 4, 2008 44

Integrate the audience! Provide a Questions? SMS +41 79 79 353 84
platform!
The NYT went ‘open access’ 3 days ago - after
maintaining a wall for the past 5 years (incl. RSS)
Gerd Leonhard Music & Media Futurist www.mediafuturist.com
Tuesday, March 4, 2008 45

Questions? SMS +41 79 79 353 84
You must take Radio’s walls down,
too:
• Archive Access
• Web-based access on all platforms
• Radio as social medium
Don’t hide behind any wall.
Gerd Leonhard Music & Media Futurist www.mediafuturist.com
Tuesday, March 4, 2008 46

Changes in the content industries
Content 1.0 Content 2.0
Distribution Attention
Shelf Space Mind-share
Mass Marketing Niche Marketing
Monolog Dialog
Influence &
Control
Reputation
Control Attention & Trust
Gerd Leonhard, Music & Media Futurist
Tuesday, March 4, 2008 47

So if I ran the circus, I would... Questions? SMS +41 79 79 353 84
• Widgetize my radio stations (syndicate radio shows
via embedded players), turn them into channels on
social networks
• Turn my listeners into active network members, roll
out Engagement programs
• Offer archives of everything, no matter what
• Mobilize my radio station
• Demand extended licensing grants, and one-stop
licensing
• Lobby for a digital music flat rate
• Push converged service: audio, video, text
• Build my brand and become an EXPERIENCE
Gerd Leonhard Music & Media Futurist www.mediafuturist.com
Tuesday, March 4, 2008 48

Thanks for listening
www.mediafuturist.com
New book out next week:
Free at
www.endofcontrol.com
Gerd Leonhard www.mediafuturist.com
Tuesday, March 4, 2008 49