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Gerd Leonhard
               Presentation at RadioDays 2007


           Future or no future for radio?
                  ...
Questions? SMS +41 79 79 353 84
Radio today: competition coming from all sides

                                          ...
SMS +41 79 79 353 84




       Across the world, 1.1 Billion
      People use the Internet, 1.4
     Billion watch TV, an...
The Net Generation:                Questions? SMS +41 79 79 353 84




           I program my media
           - it does ...
The key drivers of Change              SMS +41 79 79 353 84




• Broadband
• Mobility
• Social Networks
• Blogs and User ...
SMS +41 79 79 353 84




                         Gerd Leonhard www.mediafuturist.com

Tuesday, March 4, 2008             ...
SMS +41 79 79 353 84




                         Gerd Leonhard www.mediafuturist.com

Tuesday, March 4, 2008             ...
Questions? SMS +41 79 79 353 84



         W e a r e h ea d i ng int o a a cc el e ra t i ng
          c o nverg enc e o ...
A few shocking facts from the U.S.      Questions? SMS +41 79 79 353 84




                              Gerd Leonhard Mu...
Questions? SMS +41 79 79 353 84




                         In the US: tuning
                         out of Radio is
  ...
Questions? SMS +41 79 79 353 84




                         Radio ad
                         revenues
                  ...
and then comes...




                         Gerd Leonhard Music & Media Futurist www.mediafuturist.com
Tuesday, March 4...
SMS +41 79 79 353 84




 ‘How’ will matter less and less.   ‘What’ will matter more and more
                            ...
Questions? SMS +41 79 79 353 84




                         Remember when Radio had a

                          Monopoly...
Questions? SMS +41 79 79 353 84




                                           three




                         Gerd Leo...
Questions? SMS +41 79 79 353 84




       Imagine a page, a button, a Canvas where
         you simply put all the statio...
Questions? SMS +41 79 79 353 84




        Consumers are, now more than ever before,
        seeking consolidated, trustw...
Questions? SMS +41 79 79 353 84




  New technologies often disrupt ecosystems
     but always make the market bigger

  ...
The De-Walling:                                   SMS +41 79 79 353 84



• Music formats will be either open or 100% comp...
Thanks to the Net Generation & the
               Digital Natives,
    Social Networks on the
       Internet are the
    ...
Questions? SMS +41 79 79 353 84

Global Social Networking is already bigger than Radio in the U.S.




                   ...
Questions? SMS +41 79 79 353 84




    The People formerly
        known as Listeners
             (aka Consumers)

     ...
Questions? SMS +41 79 79 353 84




The Medium formerly
               known as Radio



                         Gerd Leo...
Questions? SMS +41 79 79 353 84




       Soon, most of them will
     get most of their ‘Radio’
        via any digital ...
Questions? SMS +41 79 79 353 84


  Why is your station not broadcasting on
  Facebook, Lunarstorm, Sulekha.net or Orkut?
...
Questions? SMS +41 79 79 353 84
    Because




          In all Media, Push is
          becoming Pull



               ...
Just different words for the same thing...
                                                       Questions? SMS +41 79 79...
Questions? SMS +41 79 79 353 84




   The most important development in the
   Context of Radio Licensing is The
   Flat ...
And for Public Radio                 Questions? SMS +41 79 79 353 84




       The Net Generation will not
       continu...
The Reality is:                              Questions? SMS +41 79 79 353 84




• The Internet is a Giant Copy Machine
• ...
Questions? SMS +41 79 79 353 84




                       The bottom line:
                   In media, Friction is now

...
Questions? SMS +41 79 79 353 84




  Very soon -
  listening IS receiving



                         Gerd Leonhard Music...
A Logic Challenge                      Questions? SMS +41 79 79 353 84




  Radio is Free
  Records / CDs are not

      ...
EU Radio in 3-5 years                      Questions? SMS +41 79 79 353 84




 • 100% digital (in all its variations), an...
EU Radio in 10 years                  Questions? SMS +41 79 79 353 84




 • The term “Radio” simply refers to
   ‘curated...
The trigger factors:                      Questions? SMS +41 79 79 353 84




    • Highspeed Wireless Internet everywhere...
What is good about Radio?                       Questions? SMS +41 79 79 353 84



 What is good about Audio on the Intern...
Questions? SMS +41 79 79 353 84




     Radio’s Future is on the
     Internet, with the Net
     Generation, and with fu...
The 5 Inevitables                           Questions? SMS +41 79 79 353 84




    1.Radio must support time-shifting

  ...
Radio is a perfect fit for the experience economy      Questions? SMS +41 79 79 353 84




                               ...
This is where the growth is             Questions? SMS +41 79 79 353 84




                               Gerd Leonhard M...
The new currencies in Media             Questions? SMS +41 79 79 353 84




 • Getting (and keeping) attention
 • Trust
 •...
Questions? SMS +41 79 79 353 84


And advertising follows the trends of
mass-personalization
Souce: Booz Hamilton Report

...
Questions? SMS +41 79 79 353 84




  From
  Impression to
  Relevance

                         Gerd Leonhard Music & Med...
Integrate the audience! Provide a                         Questions? SMS +41 79 79 353 84

platform!




           The NY...
Questions? SMS +41 79 79 353 84




You must take Radio’s walls down,
too:
• Archive Access
• Web-based access on all plat...
Changes in the content industries

         Content 1.0               Content 2.0
                  Distribution        At...
So if I ran the circus, I would...             Questions? SMS +41 79 79 353 84



 • Widgetize my radio stations (syndicat...
Thanks for listening


                          www.mediafuturist.com


   New book out next week:
          Free at
    ...
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Gerd Leonhard Future Of Radio 2007

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Futurist Gerd Leonhard's 2007 Presentation on the Future of Radio

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Transcript of "Gerd Leonhard Future Of Radio 2007"

  1. 1. Gerd Leonhard Presentation at RadioDays 2007 Future or no future for radio? www.mediafuturist.com New book out next week: Free at www.endofcontrol.com Gerd Leonhard www.mediafuturist.com Tuesday, March 4, 2008 1
  2. 2. Questions? SMS +41 79 79 353 84 Radio today: competition coming from all sides Social Networks and Blogs Car Audio Systems Wimax Music Ipod Podcasts iphone Satellite Radio Mobile Music What’s good about all this: Choice What’s bad about all this: The Paradox of Choice Gerd Leonhard Music & Media Futurist www.mediafuturist.com Tuesday, March 4, 2008 2
  3. 3. SMS +41 79 79 353 84 Across the world, 1.1 Billion People use the Internet, 1.4 Billion watch TV, and 2.2 Billion use Mobile Phones So HOW will RADIO be consumed in the Future, and what is its value proposition (both for music and for audio) Gerd Leonhard www.mediafuturist.com Tuesday, March 4, 2008 3
  4. 4. The Net Generation: Questions? SMS +41 79 79 353 84 I program my media - it does not program me! Gerd Leonhard Music & Media Futurist www.mediafuturist.com Tuesday, March 4, 2008 4
  5. 5. The key drivers of Change SMS +41 79 79 353 84 • Broadband • Mobility • Social Networks • Blogs and User Generated Content (UGC) • Total Fragmentation of the Audiences • Globalization (and localization) • Convergence Gerd Leonhard www.mediafuturist.com Tuesday, March 4, 2008 5
  6. 6. SMS +41 79 79 353 84 Gerd Leonhard www.mediafuturist.com Tuesday, March 4, 2008 6
  7. 7. SMS +41 79 79 353 84 Gerd Leonhard www.mediafuturist.com Tuesday, March 4, 2008 7
  8. 8. Questions? SMS +41 79 79 353 84 W e a r e h ea d i ng int o a a cc el e ra t i ng c o nverg enc e o f A ud i o a nd V i d eo . Gerd Leonhard Music & Media Futurist www.mediafuturist.com Tuesday, March 4, 2008 8
  9. 9. A few shocking facts from the U.S. Questions? SMS +41 79 79 353 84 Gerd Leonhard Music & Media Futurist www.mediafuturist.com Tuesday, March 4, 2008 9
  10. 10. Questions? SMS +41 79 79 353 84 In the US: tuning out of Radio is guaranteed Gerd Leonhard Music & Media Futurist www.mediafuturist.com Tuesday, March 4, 2008 10
  11. 11. Questions? SMS +41 79 79 353 84 Radio ad revenues are not going away - they just won’t be growing. Gerd Leonhard Music & Media Futurist www.mediafuturist.com Tuesday, March 4, 2008 11
  12. 12. and then comes... Gerd Leonhard Music & Media Futurist www.mediafuturist.com Tuesday, March 4, 2008 12
  13. 13. SMS +41 79 79 353 84 ‘How’ will matter less and less. ‘What’ will matter more and more Gerd Leonhard www.mediafuturist.com Tuesday, March 4, 2008 13
  14. 14. Questions? SMS +41 79 79 353 84 Remember when Radio had a Monopoly in Attention? Gerd Leonhard Music & Media Futurist www.mediafuturist.com Tuesday, March 4, 2008 14
  15. 15. Questions? SMS +41 79 79 353 84 three Gerd Leonhard Music & Media Futurist www.mediafuturist.com Tuesday, March 4, 2008 15
  16. 16. Questions? SMS +41 79 79 353 84 Imagine a page, a button, a Canvas where you simply put all the stations that you want to listen to. A canvas that you can always have with you (see Netvibes, iGoogle), no matter how you receive the content. Radio fills the need to filter Choice. Gerd Leonhard Music & Media Futurist www.mediafuturist.com Tuesday, March 4, 2008 16
  17. 17. Questions? SMS +41 79 79 353 84 Consumers are, now more than ever before, seeking consolidated, trustworthy content, recognition and community - even more when it comes to mobile and Internet entertainment This is still the biggest opportunity in Radio. Gerd Leonhard Music & Media Futurist www.mediafuturist.com Tuesday, March 4, 2008 17
  18. 18. Questions? SMS +41 79 79 353 84 New technologies often disrupt ecosystems but always make the market bigger Gerd Leonhard Music & Media Futurist www.mediafuturist.com Tuesday, March 4, 2008 18
  19. 19. The De-Walling: SMS +41 79 79 353 84 • Music formats will be either open or 100% compatible - DRM is the past • Music as a service will become a default setting, and the ‘sell units’ paradigm is ending • Creation of new revenue flows will be more important than controlling distribution • The People formerly known as Consumers are gaining more power by the minute • Music licensing will be drastically simplified Isn’t Radio the definition of Music as a Service? Gerd Leonhard www.mediafuturist.com Tuesday, March 4, 2008 19
  20. 20. Thanks to the Net Generation & the Digital Natives, Social Networks on the Internet are the Next Radio Gerd Leonhard Music & Media Futurist www.mediafuturist.com Tuesday, March 4, 2008 20
  21. 21. Questions? SMS +41 79 79 353 84 Global Social Networking is already bigger than Radio in the U.S. Gerd Leonhard Music & Media Futurist www.mediafuturist.com Tuesday, March 4, 2008 21
  22. 22. Questions? SMS +41 79 79 353 84 The People formerly known as Listeners (aka Consumers) Gerd Leonhard Music & Media Futurist www.mediafuturist.com Tuesday, March 4, 2008 22
  23. 23. Questions? SMS +41 79 79 353 84 The Medium formerly known as Radio Gerd Leonhard Music & Media Futurist www.mediafuturist.com Tuesday, March 4, 2008 23
  24. 24. Questions? SMS +41 79 79 353 84 Soon, most of them will get most of their ‘Radio’ via any digital network - the Internet dominates Gerd Leonhard Music & Media Futurist www.mediafuturist.com Tuesday, March 4, 2008 24
  25. 25. Questions? SMS +41 79 79 353 84 Why is your station not broadcasting on Facebook, Lunarstorm, Sulekha.net or Orkut? Gerd Leonhard Music & Media Futurist www.mediafuturist.com Tuesday, March 4, 2008 25
  26. 26. Questions? SMS +41 79 79 353 84 Because In all Media, Push is becoming Pull Gerd Leonhard Music & Media Futurist www.mediafuturist.com Tuesday, March 4, 2008 26
  27. 27. Just different words for the same thing... Questions? SMS +41 79 79 353 84 Broadcasting Streaming Tubesocking Public Playlisting Performance Download Listening Streamripping PodcatchingCopy Buffering Caching Digital Renting Phonographic Delivery (DPD) Gerd Leonhard Music & Media Futurist www.mediafuturist.com Tuesday, March 4, 2008 27
  28. 28. Questions? SMS +41 79 79 353 84 The most important development in the Context of Radio Licensing is The Flat Rate for Digital Music Gerd Leonhard Music & Media Futurist www.mediafuturist.com Tuesday, March 4, 2008 28
  29. 29. And for Public Radio Questions? SMS +41 79 79 353 84 The Net Generation will not continue to pay a public Radio or TV License without archiving, time-shifting, place-shifting and device shifting - i.e. with build-in DELIVERY options Gerd Leonhard Music & Media Futurist www.mediafuturist.com Tuesday, March 4, 2008 29
  30. 30. The Reality is: Questions? SMS +41 79 79 353 84 • The Internet is a Giant Copy Machine • Digital Radio IS Distribution • From the listeners standpoint, Digital Radio MUST offer time / place / device shifting which is... Distribution • Case in point: RSS and the Google Reader Gerd Leonhard Music & Media Futurist www.mediafuturist.com Tuesday, March 4, 2008 30
  31. 31. Questions? SMS +41 79 79 353 84 The bottom line: In media, Friction is now Fiction Gerd Leonhard Music & Media Futurist www.mediafuturist.com Tuesday, March 4, 2008 31
  32. 32. Questions? SMS +41 79 79 353 84 Very soon - listening IS receiving Gerd Leonhard Music & Media Futurist www.mediafuturist.com Tuesday, March 4, 2008 32
  33. 33. A Logic Challenge Questions? SMS +41 79 79 353 84 Radio is Free Records / CDs are not If the Internet is the New Radio - are Copies are ‘free’ ? Gerd Leonhard Music & Media Futurist www.mediafuturist.com Tuesday, March 4, 2008 33
  34. 34. EU Radio in 3-5 years Questions? SMS +41 79 79 353 84 • 100% digital (in all its variations), and 50% converged with the Net • All stations everywhere,anytime, any way • Video and Audio converge • Community features are a standard • Geography fades, borders become soft • License is both questioned and then expanded (based on a Flat Rate for Digital Music) • Advertising2.0 emerges • Public Radio offers full archives on-demand Gerd Leonhard Music & Media Futurist www.mediafuturist.com Tuesday, March 4, 2008 34
  35. 35. EU Radio in 10 years Questions? SMS +41 79 79 353 84 • The term “Radio” simply refers to ‘curated programming’ • Public radio is the #1 curator of a huge digital library • The ‘Copy versus Performance’ (listen versus own) distinction is over • Everything is on demand - few or nothing remains scheduled Gerd Leonhard Music & Media Futurist www.mediafuturist.com Tuesday, March 4, 2008 35
  36. 36. The trigger factors: Questions? SMS +41 79 79 353 84 • Highspeed Wireless Internet everywhere • WiBro in the car • 4G Wireless cell phone networks fully deployed How long? • Radios with WLAN chips • Cell phones with DAB receivers (and WLAN) • Mobile computing devices that talk effortlessly to each other • Web5.0 as easy as a TV remote control Gerd Leonhard Music & Media Futurist www.mediafuturist.com Tuesday, March 4, 2008 36
  37. 37. What is good about Radio? Questions? SMS +41 79 79 353 84 What is good about Audio on the Internet? *** *** ** • Free or feels like free • Ubiquitous * • Easy to use for anyone ** • Does not require engagement *** • Trusted, professional curators *** • Known brands * • Local context • Strong tradition • Great way to discover music Gerd Leonhard Music & Media Futurist www.mediafuturist.com Tuesday, March 4, 2008 37
  38. 38. Questions? SMS +41 79 79 353 84 Radio’s Future is on the Internet, with the Net Generation, and with fully integrated Content Delivery Gerd Leonhard Music & Media Futurist www.mediafuturist.com Tuesday, March 4, 2008 38
  39. 39. The 5 Inevitables Questions? SMS +41 79 79 353 84 1.Radio must support time-shifting 2.Radio must support space-shifting 3.Radio must support sharing 4.Radio must support interactivity 5.Radio must support community Gerd Leonhard Music & Media Futurist www.mediafuturist.com Tuesday, March 4, 2008 39
  40. 40. Radio is a perfect fit for the experience economy Questions? SMS +41 79 79 353 84 Gerd Leonhard Music & Media Futurist www.mediafuturist.com Tuesday, March 4, 2008 40
  41. 41. This is where the growth is Questions? SMS +41 79 79 353 84 Gerd Leonhard Music & Media Futurist www.mediafuturist.com Tuesday, March 4, 2008 41
  42. 42. The new currencies in Media Questions? SMS +41 79 79 353 84 • Getting (and keeping) attention • Trust • Influence • Reputation Gerd Leonhard Music & Media Futurist www.mediafuturist.com Tuesday, March 4, 2008 42
  43. 43. Questions? SMS +41 79 79 353 84 And advertising follows the trends of mass-personalization Souce: Booz Hamilton Report Gerd Leonhard Music & Media Futurist www.mediafuturist.com Tuesday, March 4, 2008 43
  44. 44. Questions? SMS +41 79 79 353 84 From Impression to Relevance Gerd Leonhard Music & Media Futurist www.mediafuturist.com Tuesday, March 4, 2008 44
  45. 45. Integrate the audience! Provide a Questions? SMS +41 79 79 353 84 platform! The NYT went ‘open access’ 3 days ago - after maintaining a wall for the past 5 years (incl. RSS) Gerd Leonhard Music & Media Futurist www.mediafuturist.com Tuesday, March 4, 2008 45
  46. 46. Questions? SMS +41 79 79 353 84 You must take Radio’s walls down, too: • Archive Access • Web-based access on all platforms • Radio as social medium Don’t hide behind any wall. Gerd Leonhard Music & Media Futurist www.mediafuturist.com Tuesday, March 4, 2008 46
  47. 47. Changes in the content industries Content 1.0 Content 2.0 Distribution Attention Shelf Space Mind-share Mass Marketing Niche Marketing Monolog Dialog Influence & Control Reputation Control Attention & Trust Gerd Leonhard, Music & Media Futurist Tuesday, March 4, 2008 47
  48. 48. So if I ran the circus, I would... Questions? SMS +41 79 79 353 84 • Widgetize my radio stations (syndicate radio shows via embedded players), turn them into channels on social networks • Turn my listeners into active network members, roll out Engagement programs • Offer archives of everything, no matter what • Mobilize my radio station • Demand extended licensing grants, and one-stop licensing • Lobby for a digital music flat rate • Push converged service: audio, video, text • Build my brand and become an EXPERIENCE Gerd Leonhard Music & Media Futurist www.mediafuturist.com Tuesday, March 4, 2008 48
  49. 49. Thanks for listening www.mediafuturist.com New book out next week: Free at www.endofcontrol.com Gerd Leonhard www.mediafuturist.com Tuesday, March 4, 2008 49
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