Future Of Content Free Shared Paid Gerd Leonhard At Ficod 08

Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist The Future of Music, Media and Content: Free, Shared and... Paid? Presentation by Gerd Leonhard www.mediafuturist.com Free book PDF www.music20thebook.com

Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist I am standing on the shoulders of many giants... Don Tapscott: Wikinomics Yochai Benkler: The Wealth of Networks Clay Shirky: Here comes Everybody Jeff Howe: Crowdsourcing Chris Anderson: The LongTail Seth Godin: Meatloaf Sundae Larry Lessig: Remix, Free Culture P.S.: there is little futurism in today’s presentation ;)

Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist Today’s key message: Less Control will bring more Success and more Income to the Content Creators and the Content Industries

Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist The crisis of the Content Business • Mere copies of content are de-facto ‘free’ • The Internet is a giant copy machine - and it’s rapidly growing in size and reach (and now: mobile!) • Selling copies is a rapidly declining business model (Music, DVDs, Magazines, Newspapers...) • Broadband culture drives further commodization • What used to be paid for is now often free • Digital revenues are not nearly enough to make up for the loss of physical sales (1:5 ratio!) • Developing countries have no pay-by-unit tradition • There is more content consumption than ever before - but where is the ‘new money’?

Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist Global Broadband Penetration Global Mobile Penetration Percentage of People with Computers Total 231% 122% 99% 99% 74% 80% 61% 30% 33% 6% 7% 12% Today 2-3 years 5-7 years Cost of Internet Access Cost of Storage Skills Required

Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist Disruption Reinvention

The Copyright dilemma (1) Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist

The Copyright dilemma (2) Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist

Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist Right ... for the law - but wrong for the $$ !

Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist Rather...

Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist • Is the quest for Control realistic? • Will it make Money? • Will it be fair and equitable? • Will it create a Culture & Society in which we will want to live in? • Can Control work everywhere?

Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist Stop this?

Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist We cannot wall-in our Content in this future

Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist Compete with Free? We don’t compete with free copies. We sell everything else.

Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist How to make your customers angry:

Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist Do we really want Criminalization? http://flickr.com/photos/jan1020/

Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist

Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist Why has Sharing become a bad thing?

Sharing is a key driver Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist

Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist A world of NO permission is a world of NO $

Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist Moving from take-down to permission

Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist This is a very serious change - and opportunity! Copy Economy Access / Usage / Sharing Economy

Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist Average Available Time Available Choices Average Available Attention Amount of Input Need for Selection, Filtering & Curation Need for Community of Content Attention, Choice & Curation Trends (Gerd Leonhard) 100% 75% 50% 25% 0% Was Is Soon The Future

Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist So this is not about technology! The Age of Ideas Emerging cultural practices New business models

Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist Alternatives to Control http://flickr.com/photos/foxwillow/

Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist Command & Control becomes Coordinate & Cultivate *Thomas Malone “The Future of Work”

Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist If we bet on Control, we are putting our money in the wrong place

The alternatives... Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist

Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist No - these are not California Hippy-Geek Dreams!

Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist • Give Permission - and collect revenue shares • License digital music like Radio - and collect revenue shares everywhere • Engage and converse with the users - and get their data in return • Switch to a YES approach NOW

Because Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist Google China President Kai Fu Lee: Mutual Interest, rather than Monopoly, is the key to sustainable growth

Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist Selling content: finding the new money Next Generation Advertising Freemium Flat Rates & Bundles New Generatives Sell Copies *Take 2 3rd party pays (cross subsidies) 20% 20% 10% 15% 35%

Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist Value of ‘a Copy’ Value of CONTEXT Value of Meta-Content Value of Experiences Value Trends (by Gerd Leonhard) 100% Value of Context Value of Experience 75% 50% Value of Meta-Content 25% Value of ‘a Copy’ 0% Was Is Soon The Future

Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist New Value: Meta-Content *aka Data • User ratings & recommendations • User reviews • User tagging and annotating • User bookmarking • User sharing / forwarding • User editing / remixing • User republishing

The new Content Economy: the User is a major force Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist

Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist

The Solution Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist

The Digital Music Flat Rate is inevitable Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist ~1910 + = + = ~2009?

Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist P e r m i s s i o n . E n g a g e m e n t . C o n v e r s a t i o n . T h e F u t u r e .

Next Generation Advertising Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist

Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist F o r g e t A d v e r t i s i n g a s w e k n o w i t . R e i n v e n t .

Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist The Future of Content: Attention-based Income Explodes Copy Based Revenues Attention Based Revenues Was Is Soon Near Future Mid-term Future

Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist Freemium

Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist Kevin Kelly @ kk.org: When an offering becomes commoditized the solution is to offer valuable intangibles: 1. Immediacy - priority access, immediate delivery 2. Personalization - tailored just for you... ʻMeCastʼ 3. Interpretation & Filtering - support and guidance 4. Authenticity - making sure itʼs the real thing 5. Accessibility - wherever, whenever, however 6. Embodiment, Experience & Packaging 7. Community (i.e. the Tribes) 8. Findability & Curation

Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist Br o a d b a n d C u l tu r e Yes... we do! http://www.flickr.com/photos/bip/

Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist To summarize

Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist Thanks for your attention! TALK BACK: ★ email me at gerd@mediafuturist.com ★ twitter.com/gleonhard ★ facebook: gleonhard ★ more presentations at www.mediafuturist.com ★ Thought-Stream at www.gerdstream.com

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Future Of Content Free Shared Paid Gerd Leonhard At Ficod 08

by Gerd Leonhard on Nov 27, 2008

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Future Of Content Free Shared Paid Gerd Leonhard At Ficod 08 — Presentation Transcript