Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist
The Future of Music,
Media and Content:
Free, Shared and... Paid?
Presentation by Gerd Leonhard
www.mediafuturist.com
Free book PDF www.music20thebook.com

Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist
I am standing on the shoulders of many giants...
Don Tapscott: Wikinomics
Yochai Benkler: The Wealth of Networks
Clay Shirky: Here comes Everybody
Jeff Howe: Crowdsourcing
Chris Anderson: The LongTail
Seth Godin: Meatloaf Sundae
Larry Lessig: Remix, Free Culture
P.S.: there is little
futurism in today’s
presentation ;)

Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist
Today’s key message: Less Control will bring
more Success and more Income to the Content
Creators and the Content Industries

Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist
The crisis of the Content Business
• Mere copies of content are de-facto ‘free’
• The Internet is a giant copy machine - and it’s rapidly
growing in size and reach (and now: mobile!)
• Selling copies is a rapidly declining business model
(Music, DVDs, Magazines, Newspapers...)
• Broadband culture drives further commodization
• What used to be paid for is now often free
• Digital revenues are not nearly enough to make up for
the loss of physical sales (1:5 ratio!)
• Developing countries have no pay-by-unit tradition
• There is more content consumption than ever before -
but where is the ‘new money’?

Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist
Global Broadband Penetration
Global Mobile Penetration
Percentage of People with Computers
Total
231%
122%
99% 99%
74% 80%
61%
30% 33%
6% 7% 12%
Today 2-3 years 5-7 years
Cost of Internet Access Cost of Storage Skills Required

Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist
Disruption
Reinvention

The Copyright dilemma (1)
Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist

The Copyright dilemma (2)
Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist

Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist
Right ... for the law - but
wrong for the $$ !

Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist
Rather...

Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist
• Is the quest for Control realistic?
• Will it make Money?
• Will it be fair and equitable?
• Will it create a Culture & Society in
which we will want to live in?
• Can Control work everywhere?

Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist
Stop this?

Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist
We
cannot
wall-in our
Content in this future

Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist
Compete with Free?
We don’t compete with
free copies.
We sell everything else.

Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist
How to make your customers angry:

Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist
Do we really want Criminalization?
http://flickr.com/photos/jan1020/

Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist

Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist
Why has Sharing become a bad thing?

Sharing is a key driver
Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist

Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist
A world of NO permission is a world of NO $

Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist
Moving from take-down to permission

Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist
This is a very serious change - and opportunity!
Copy Economy
Access / Usage /
Sharing Economy

Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist
Average Available Time Available Choices
Average Available Attention Amount of Input
Need for Selection, Filtering & Curation Need for Community of Content
Attention, Choice & Curation Trends (Gerd Leonhard)
100%
75%
50%
25%
0%
Was Is Soon The Future

Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist
So this is not about technology!
The Age of Ideas
Emerging cultural practices
New business models

Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist
Alternatives to Control
http://flickr.com/photos/foxwillow/

Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist
Alternatives to Control
http://flickr.com/photos/foxwillow/

Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist
Command & Control
becomes
Coordinate & Cultivate
*Thomas Malone “The Future of Work”

Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist
If we bet on Control, we are putting
our money in the wrong place

The alternatives...
Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist

Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist
No - these
are not
California
Hippy-Geek
Dreams!

Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist
• Give Permission - and collect revenue shares
• License digital music like Radio - and collect
revenue shares everywhere
• Engage and converse with the users - and
get their data in return
• Switch to a YES approach NOW

Because
Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist
Google China President Kai Fu Lee: Mutual Interest,
rather than Monopoly, is the key to sustainable growth

Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist
Selling content: finding the new money
Next Generation Advertising Freemium
Flat Rates & Bundles New Generatives
Sell Copies *Take 2 3rd party pays (cross subsidies)
20% 20%
10%
15%
35%

Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist
Value of ‘a Copy’ Value of CONTEXT
Value of Meta-Content Value of Experiences
Value Trends (by Gerd Leonhard)
100%
Value of Context
Value of Experience
75%
50%
Value of Meta-Content
25%
Value of ‘a Copy’
0%
Was Is Soon The Future

Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist
New Value: Meta-Content
*aka Data
• User ratings & recommendations
• User reviews
• User tagging and annotating
• User bookmarking
• User sharing / forwarding
• User editing / remixing
• User republishing

The new Content Economy: the User is a major force
Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist

Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist

The Solution
Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist

The Digital Music Flat Rate is inevitable
Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist
~1910
+ =
+
=
~2009?

Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist
P e r m i s s i o n .
E n g a g e m e n t .
C o n v e r s a t i o n .
T h e F u t u r e .

Next Generation Advertising
Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist

Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist
F o r g e t
A d v e r t i s i n g
a s w e k n o w i t .
R e i n v e n t .

Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist
The Future of Content: Attention-based Income Explodes
Copy Based Revenues
Attention Based Revenues
Was Is Soon Near Future Mid-term Future

Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist
Freemium

Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist
Kevin Kelly @ kk.org: When an offering becomes commoditized
the solution is to offer valuable intangibles:
1. Immediacy - priority access, immediate delivery
2. Personalization - tailored just for you... ʻMeCastʼ
3. Interpretation & Filtering - support and guidance
4. Authenticity - making sure itʼs the real thing
5. Accessibility - wherever, whenever, however
6. Embodiment, Experience & Packaging
7. Community (i.e. the Tribes)
8. Findability & Curation

Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist
Br o a d b a n d C u l tu r e
Yes... we do!
http://www.flickr.com/photos/bip/

Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist
To summarize

Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist
Thanks for your attention!
TALK BACK:
★ email me at gerd@mediafuturist.com
★ twitter.com/gleonhard
★ facebook: gleonhard
★ more presentations at www.mediafuturist.com
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