The Future of Media in a Networked World

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Futurist Gerd Leonhard talks about the future of broadcasting and media. More on my blog http://tinyurl.com/o8fedz

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The Future of Media in a Networked World

  1. 1. The Future of Media in an Open, Networked and Always-on World Gerd Leonhard, Media Futurist Presentation at the 2009 Siemens Media Industry SummIT in Rome
  2. 2. Leadership is crucial
  3. 3. Leadership is crucial
  4. 4. Serious opportunities exist in Media
  5. 5. Our world is indeed always-on
  6. 6. Our world is slowly but surely moving to open platforms
  7. 7. Egosystem becomes Ecosystem
  8. 8. And magnetic, engaging brands win
  9. 9. Some important emerging cultural* practices... • I want it when I want it [time-shifting] • I want it how and where I want it [place-& platform shifting] • I want to be able to influence, talk-back, contribute, determine [Control-shifting] • I’ll always want real value for my attention - or else...[attention-shifting] • Total and complete Fragmentation - as well as Re-Aggregation
  10. 10. Trend Example: the BBC iPlayer
  11. 11. • I think that up to 85% of the viewers will watch TV on their schedule, using any content from any archive, anytime, anywhere • Mobile devices (streamed and cached) will make up the majority of usage (but some networks will be hard pressed to deliver) • Copy protection, 7-day restrictions and UK IP requirements will be removed sooner or later • iPlayer success proves that sharing, community, engaging is key for the Future of TV • The difference between ‘watching a show’ and ‘owning a copy’ evaporates • The iPlayer concept opens up many new up-selling opportunities • This probably can’t be scaled without using some form of P2P technology (think Skype...)
  12. 12. In all Media, Push is out Pull is In
  13. 13. Push is out Pull is In
  14. 14. Content 2.0 Trends • We don’t consume - we use • Listening & watching is copying, by default (legal frameworks will adapt) • Users are Content, themselves, too • Advertising is becoming 100% targeted, integrated, contextualized... Content! • All content goes over IP
  15. 15. The Digital Natives: Internet over TV
  16. 16. Value of ‘a Copy’ Value of CONTEXT Value of Meta-Content Value of Experiences Value Trends (by Gerd Leonhard) Value of Context 100% Value of Experience Value of Meta-Content 75% 50% 25% Value of ‘a Copy’ 0% Was Is Soon The Future
  17. 17. This requires a web-native Ecosystem
  18. 18. Telecom Brands & ICT (Advertisers) Broad- casters Content CE (Device Makers)
  19. 19. ISPs & Telcos become Content Players * in many drastically different ways
  20. 20. New Data New Content Economy Economy Next Generation Advertising
  21. 21. How, when and where can you charge for content?
  22. 22. First: what is Content, in the Future? • Professionally produced and traditionally / legally owned • Created by the Users and shared- alike-commons-public-free-etc • Meta-Content: the Users’ data and click-streams layered around other (professional) content • The Users themselves • Pro Content ‘appropriated’ by Users
  23. 23. So...nobody wants to pay anymore?
  24. 24. Let’s take note: How, when and where can you charge for content? • We are only at the very beginning of this new content logic & ecosystem • There are no recipes to success, yet! • Content is culture - and by definition vastly different by location and constantly changing •When and how much can you charge for content?
  25. 25. • We are only at the very beginning of this new content logic & ecosystem • There are no recipes to success, yet! • Content is culture - and by definition vastly different by location and constantly changing •When and how much can you charge for content?
  26. 26. The balancing act gets harder... and faster Attraction Encourage Lock-in Participation Control Attention Retention Audience Growth Conversion to $ Engagement Sales Increases Fans & Followers Drive adoption Ownership Be trusted Stay relevant Key Position
  27. 27. Some opinions Rupert Murdoch, chairman of News Corporation, this month summed up the shift in thinking. “We are in the midst of an epochal debate over the value of content, and it is clear to many newspapers the current model is malfunctioning,” he said, announcing plans to start charging for online content from general interest newspapers such as The Times of London.
  28. 28. Google & Free Music in China • Free / Feels Like Free Music for China! • Unlimited, unprotected downloads • Paid with Attention, $-ized via Ads • In China, Copyright is a ‘lost cause’ • Google is willing to ‘lubricate’ a new logic
  29. 29. •Free = nobody pays actual $ anywhere •Feels Like Free = the payment is bundled, or hidden, or absorbed somewhere else, or build-in; but: no individual payment decision is required everytime •Freemium = all users get real value free of charge, but a good percentage selects to buy premium offers beyond the free level •3rd party pays: someone else pays for my usage because they want access to me (and my data)
  30. 30. Freemium and New Generatives: Pandora Convenience Premium Experience Personalization ‘Paying for Privacy’ Packaging Convenience
  31. 31. Broadcasters, Publishers and Studios: Listening, Reading or Watching = Keeping, Copying & Sharing
  32. 32. The Future: not prevention but smarter toll-booth strategies
  33. 33. Stabilizing Piracy....???? • Downloading has simply given way to streaming on demand • Everything is moving to the mobile phone - and sharing goes x100 • Broadband speeds keep increasing, costs keep dropping, everywhere • Governments can and will not police the Networks to enforce scarcity of content or friction in content acquisition
  34. 34. = 2.0
  35. 35. Social media shifts: Example: TV
  36. 36. So will people read like this?
  37. 37. Trends • Reading off screens will grow exponentially, everywhere • Touch-screens will rule • Innovative UI & great UX is crucial • Expect device makers to offer subsidy deals to mobile / data networks (like the Kindle in the US), and move towards ‘free’ • Content flat rates will explode, UGC will be crucial to fast adoption
  38. 38. Don’t be too little too late
  39. 39. Summary / Re-Cap
  40. 40. Thanks for listening! ★ email me at gerd@mediafuturist.com ★ twitter.com/gleonhard ★ facebook: gleonhard ★ more presentations at www.mediafuturist.com

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