The Future of Media
in an Open, Networked and
Always-on World
Gerd Leonhard, Media Futurist
Presentation
at the 2009 Siemens Media Industry SummIT in Rome

Leadership is crucial

Leadership is crucial

Serious opportunities exist in Media

Our world is indeed always-on

Our world is slowly but surely
moving to open platforms

Egosystem becomes
Ecosystem

And magnetic, engaging brands win

Some important emerging cultural* practices...
• I want it when I want it [time-shifting]
• I want it how and where I want it
[place-& platform shifting]
• I want to be able to influence, talk-back,
contribute, determine [Control-shifting]
• I’ll always want real value for my attention - or
else...[attention-shifting]
• Total and complete Fragmentation -
as well as Re-Aggregation

Trend Example: the BBC iPlayer

• I think that up to 85% of the viewers will watch TV on
their schedule, using any content from any archive,
anytime, anywhere
• Mobile devices (streamed and cached) will make up
the majority of usage (but some networks will be hard pressed to deliver)
• Copy protection, 7-day restrictions and UK IP
requirements will be removed sooner or later
• iPlayer success proves that sharing, community,
engaging is key for the Future of TV
• The difference between ‘watching a show’ and
‘owning a copy’ evaporates
• The iPlayer concept opens up many new up-selling
opportunities
• This probably can’t be scaled without using some
form of P2P technology (think Skype...)

In all Media, Push is out
Pull is In

Push is out
Pull is In

Content 2.0 Trends
• We don’t consume - we use
• Listening & watching is copying, by
default (legal frameworks will adapt)
• Users are Content, themselves, too
• Advertising is becoming 100%
targeted, integrated, contextualized...
Content!
• All content goes over IP

The Digital Natives: Internet over TV

Value of ‘a Copy’ Value of CONTEXT
Value of Meta-Content Value of Experiences
Value Trends (by Gerd Leonhard)
Value of Context
100%
Value of Experience
Value of Meta-Content
75%
50%
25%
Value of ‘a Copy’
0%
Was Is Soon The Future

This requires a web-native Ecosystem

Telecom
Brands
& ICT (Advertisers)
Broad-
casters
Content CE
(Device Makers)

ISPs & Telcos become Content Players
* in many drastically different ways

New Data New Content
Economy Economy
Next
Generation
Advertising

How, when and
where can you
charge for
content?

First: what is Content, in the Future?
• Professionally produced and
traditionally / legally owned
• Created by the Users and shared-
alike-commons-public-free-etc
• Meta-Content: the Users’ data and
click-streams layered around other
(professional) content
• The Users themselves
• Pro Content ‘appropriated’ by Users

So...nobody wants to pay anymore?

Let’s take note: How, when and where can you charge for content?
• We are only at the very beginning of
this new content logic & ecosystem
• There are no recipes to success, yet!
• Content is culture - and by definition
vastly different by location and
constantly changing
•When and how much can
you charge for content?

• We are only at the very beginning of
this new content logic & ecosystem
• There are no recipes to success, yet!
• Content is culture - and by definition
vastly different by location and
constantly changing
•When and how much can
you charge for content?

The balancing act gets harder... and faster
Attraction
Encourage
Lock-in
Participation Control
Attention Retention
Audience Growth Conversion to $
Engagement
Sales Increases
Fans & Followers
Drive adoption Ownership
Be trusted
Stay relevant Key Position

Some opinions
Rupert Murdoch, chairman of
News Corporation, this month
summed up the shift in thinking.
“We are in the midst of an
epochal debate over the value
of content, and it is clear to
many newspapers the current
model is malfunctioning,” he
said, announcing plans to start
charging for online content from
general interest newspapers
such as The Times of London.

Google & Free Music in China
• Free / Feels Like Free Music for China!
• Unlimited, unprotected downloads
• Paid with Attention, $-ized via Ads
• In China, Copyright is a ‘lost cause’
• Google is willing to ‘lubricate’ a new logic

•Free = nobody pays actual $ anywhere
•Feels Like Free = the payment is bundled,
or hidden, or absorbed somewhere else, or
build-in; but: no individual payment decision
is required everytime
•Freemium = all users get real value free of
charge, but a good percentage selects to buy
premium offers beyond the free level
•3rd party pays: someone else pays for my
usage because they want access to me (and
my data)

Freemium and New Generatives: Pandora
Convenience Premium Experience
Personalization ‘Paying for Privacy’
Packaging Convenience

Broadcasters, Publishers and Studios:
Listening, Reading or Watching
=
Keeping, Copying
& Sharing

The Future: not prevention but smarter toll-booth strategies

Stabilizing Piracy....????
• Downloading has simply given
way to streaming on demand
• Everything is moving to the
mobile phone - and sharing
goes x100
• Broadband speeds keep
increasing, costs keep
dropping, everywhere
• Governments can and will not
police the Networks to enforce
scarcity of content or friction in
content acquisition

=
2.0

Social media shifts: Example: TV

So will people read like this?

Trends
• Reading off screens will grow
exponentially, everywhere
• Touch-screens will rule
• Innovative UI & great UX is crucial
• Expect device makers to offer subsidy
deals to mobile / data networks (like the
Kindle in the US), and move towards ‘free’
• Content flat rates will explode, UGC will be
crucial to fast adoption

Don’t be too little too late

Summary / Re-Cap

Thanks for listening!
★ email me at gerd@mediafuturist.com
★ twitter.com/gleonhard
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