Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist
Decentralized &
Social Production
- Network Economy Futures -
Presentation
by Gerd Leonhard
www.mediafuturist.com
October 21, 2008
Phuket, Thailand
Tuesday, October 21, 2008

Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist
I am proud to be standing on the shoulders of giants such as....
Wikinomics (Don Tapscott)
The Wealth of Networks (Yochai Benkler)
Here Comes Everybody (Clay Shirky)
Crowdsourcing (Jeff Howe)
+ 850 RSS feeds ;)
Read these books!
Tuesday, October 21, 2008

The future is already here...
Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist
...it’s just unevenly distributed *William Gibson
Tuesday, October 21, 2008

Drastic role
Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist
changes are
immanent.
Service Pipe
Content Pipe
Data
Pipe
Tuesday, October 21, 2008

Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist
Note: This is not about technology!
Emerging cultural practices
Tuesday, October 21, 2008

Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist
Note: Cultural Differences
are always crucial
Tokyo
London
http://www.flickr.com/photos/bip/
Tuesday, October 21, 2008

Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist
After Music & Video: Books 2.0!
Tuesday, October 21, 2008

Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist
3000 books
published
every day
Tuesday, October 21, 2008

Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist
Once technology becomes dead-simple...
Tuesday, October 21, 2008

Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist
A crucial message from the Music World:
What happens before the Orchestra performs?
Tuesday, October 21, 2008

Truly connected means...
Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist
We can find out ...anything
We decide who gets to market to us
Niches are the new hits
We find out we can actually create things, too!
A large node’s actions impact everyone
We collaborate to get very large jobs done, together
We collaborate cross-time/border/nation/firm
Tuesday, October 21, 2008

And where is the future growth?
Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist
Tuesday, October 21, 2008

People are sharing like never before
Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist
Imagine this x 1000
Tuesday, October 21, 2008

Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist
My prediction:
2013: 50% of the world’s
‘content’ generated by the Users
User
Generated:
Content + Advertising +
Marketing + R&D ++
Tuesday, October 21, 2008

Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist
The old industrial production model: coordination of
resources based on managing investment, labor, or other
scarce supplies.
The result: exclusive ownership & control; large firms.
5 things have changed this:
• Virtually free and unlimited computation power
• Low cost data storage
• Increasing network bandwidth
• Ubiquitous mobile access
• Explosive ‘Culture of Participation’
Tuesday, October 21, 2008

The Transparency Explosion
Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist
Tuesday, October 21, 2008

Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist
Together, Broadband Culture and
Mobility will re-define how we
think about:
• Privacy
• Authority
• Ownership / Copyright
• Value (period) ‘Selling’ and Marketing
• R&D, and Production
• Work
• Education
Tuesday, October 21, 2008

Formerly
Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist
Now
Users
Audience Co-Creators
Consumer Contributors
Listener Peers
Customer Producers
Buyer Promoters...
Buyers 2.0
Tuesday, October 21, 2008

Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist
Service Creators
Product Creators
Content Creators
Content Users
Tuesday, October 21, 2008

Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist
Some related ideas on the current crisis:
‣ Talk to people - have real, 2-way conversations
with your stakeholders, partners and customers
‣ Show that you care and that you are pro-active
‣ Help people find answers and solutions
‣ Use the web’s power to reduce costs (!!!)
‣ Try some Freemium ideas (make something free
that used to cost $ - and upsell from there)
‣ Now is the time to innovate &
gain market share!
Tuesday, October 21, 2008

Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist
Yochai Benkler (The Wealth of Networks):
“Collaborative projects like Wikipedia and
Linux represent the next stage of
human organization”
Tuesday, October 21, 2008

3D printers
Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist
Tuesday, October 21, 2008

Downloading Products
Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist
Imagine using a software that encodes detailed
specifications of something and then seeing that object
emerge from a box on your desk no bigger than a microwave
oven... (source: ECommerce Times)
\"This is a really powerful tool for people to be creative. A lot
of the stuff that used to be found only in an R&D laboratory
can now sit on your desktop,\" Malone says. \"That means if
you have the knowledge and imagination, you don't have
tons of capital to make a product.\" Malone @ Cornell
Tuesday, October 21, 2008

Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist
Some masses, together, are beating ‘the Firm’
Tuesday, October 21, 2008

Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist
Tuesday, October 21, 2008

Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist
Large Ideas are not
exclusive
to large Entities
Ideas are the currency
of the Future
Tuesday, October 21, 2008

Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist
Powerful
Ideas will
be provided from
ANYWHERE
Tuesday, October 21, 2008

Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist
About
Crowd-Sourcing
Tuesday, October 21, 2008

Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist
Crowd-Sourcing Principles
Used to be Is / Will be
Not invented here Proudly Found Elsewhere
Local search Network search
Company Community
Firm owns all Firm earns and keeps trust
Tuesday, October 21, 2008

Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist
Crowd + Cloud = Our Future
Tuesday, October 21, 2008

Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist
AG Lafley (CEO): “P&G has about 8,500 researchers; and we
figured there are another 1.5 million similar researchers with
pertinent areas of expertise. Why not pick their brains?”
Since Lafley took over the company, its stock price has surpassed its
former highs and net profits tripled to $10bn in 2007.
Tuesday, October 21, 2008

Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist
So what happens when...
64% of U.S. teenagers create content online
★ They grow up and become professionals?
★ They start / run their own companies?
★ The tools of cheap production & low-cost, fast
and mobile connectivity finally become available
in the so-called developing countries?
Tuesday, October 21, 2008

Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist
๏ Professional amateurs only
๏ 60.000 part-time photographers
๏ 3.5 Million images and 100.000 videos
๏ 38 forum posts per minute
๏ Paid out $27 Million to creators in 2007
๏ 2 Million customers buying
๏ Sold for $50 Million to Getty Images in 2005
๏ Huge cost savings for design firms etc
๏ Great example for lower cost AND higher convenience
๏ Great example for the power of Pro-Am sourcing
๏ Non-crowdsourced incumbents find it hard to compete
Tuesday, October 21, 2008

Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist
Product
Development
Decision
Making
Source: Flickr hillarylmrore
Tuesday, October 21, 2008

Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist
Command and Control
Attract & Aggregate
Tuesday, October 21, 2008

Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist
What used to matter...
Cash
Location
Age
Gender
Race
Pedigree
Qualification
Tuesday, October 21, 2008

Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist
What matters now
Reputation
Merit Credibility
Creativity Innovation
Quality
Tuesday, October 21, 2008

Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist
Infinitely more than just the sum of its parts
Photo Credit: unknown.. looking!
Tuesday, October 21, 2008

Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist
Summary
• During the next 5 years, most of these massive shifts will
first be exploited in Asia and BRIC (and then, Europe / U.S.)
• Expect massive disruption by newly empowered, networked
& de-central Users and Pro-Ams - and embrace it!
•Disrupt or be disrupted
• Investigate social production and crowd-sourcing ideas
•Relentlessly pursue openness everywhere
Tuesday, October 21, 2008

Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist
Telco Futures
Content &
Data Services
Tuesday, October 21, 2008