Crowdsourcing, Social Production and Network Economy Futures by Gerd Leonhard CEO Summit 08 Phuket

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Media Futurist Gerd Leonhard's presentation covering topics such as crowdsourcing, social production, the future of telcos, broadband culture & mobility etc. More at www.mediafuturist.com

Media Futurist Gerd Leonhard's presentation covering topics such as crowdsourcing, social production, the future of telcos, broadband culture & mobility etc. More at www.mediafuturist.com

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  • 1. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist Decentralized & Social Production - Network Economy Futures - Presentation by Gerd Leonhard www.mediafuturist.com October 21, 2008 Phuket, Thailand Tuesday, October 21, 2008
  • 2. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist I am proud to be standing on the shoulders of giants such as.... Wikinomics (Don Tapscott) The Wealth of Networks (Yochai Benkler) Here Comes Everybody (Clay Shirky) Crowdsourcing (Jeff Howe) + 850 RSS feeds ;) Read these books! Tuesday, October 21, 2008
  • 3. The future is already here... Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist ...it’s just unevenly distributed *William Gibson Tuesday, October 21, 2008
  • 4. Drastic role Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist changes are immanent. Service Pipe Content Pipe Data Pipe Tuesday, October 21, 2008
  • 5. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist Note: This is not about technology! Emerging cultural practices Tuesday, October 21, 2008
  • 6. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist Note: Cultural Differences are always crucial Tokyo London http://www.flickr.com/photos/bip/ Tuesday, October 21, 2008
  • 7. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist After Music & Video: Books 2.0! Tuesday, October 21, 2008
  • 8. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist 3000 books published every day Tuesday, October 21, 2008
  • 9. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist Once technology becomes dead-simple... Tuesday, October 21, 2008
  • 10. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist A crucial message from the Music World: What happens before the Orchestra performs? Tuesday, October 21, 2008
  • 11. Truly connected means... Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist We can find out ...anything We decide who gets to market to us Niches are the new hits We find out we can actually create things, too! A large node’s actions impact everyone We collaborate to get very large jobs done, together We collaborate cross-time/border/nation/firm Tuesday, October 21, 2008
  • 12. And where is the future growth? Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist Tuesday, October 21, 2008
  • 13. People are sharing like never before Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist Imagine this x 1000 Tuesday, October 21, 2008
  • 14. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist My prediction: 2013: 50% of the world’s ‘content’ generated by the Users User Generated: Content + Advertising + Marketing + R&D ++ Tuesday, October 21, 2008
  • 15. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist The old industrial production model: coordination of resources based on managing investment, labor, or other scarce supplies. The result: exclusive ownership & control; large firms. 5 things have changed this: • Virtually free and unlimited computation power • Low cost data storage • Increasing network bandwidth • Ubiquitous mobile access • Explosive ‘Culture of Participation’ Tuesday, October 21, 2008
  • 16. The Transparency Explosion Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist Tuesday, October 21, 2008
  • 17. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist Together, Broadband Culture and Mobility will re-define how we think about: • Privacy • Authority • Ownership / Copyright • Value (period) ‘Selling’ and Marketing • R&D, and Production • Work • Education Tuesday, October 21, 2008
  • 18. Formerly Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist Now Users Audience Co-Creators Consumer Contributors Listener Peers Customer Producers Buyer Promoters... Buyers 2.0 Tuesday, October 21, 2008
  • 19. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist Service Creators Product Creators Content Creators Content Users Tuesday, October 21, 2008
  • 20. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist Some related ideas on the current crisis: ‣ Talk to people - have real, 2-way conversations with your stakeholders, partners and customers ‣ Show that you care and that you are pro-active ‣ Help people find answers and solutions ‣ Use the web’s power to reduce costs (!!!) ‣ Try some Freemium ideas (make something free that used to cost $ - and upsell from there) ‣ Now is the time to innovate & gain market share! Tuesday, October 21, 2008
  • 21. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist Yochai Benkler (The Wealth of Networks): “Collaborative projects like Wikipedia and Linux represent the next stage of human organization” Tuesday, October 21, 2008
  • 22. 3D printers Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist Tuesday, October 21, 2008
  • 23. Downloading Products Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist Imagine using a software that encodes detailed specifications of something and then seeing that object emerge from a box on your desk no bigger than a microwave oven... (source: ECommerce Times) quot;This is a really powerful tool for people to be creative. A lot of the stuff that used to be found only in an R&D laboratory can now sit on your desktop,quot; Malone says. quot;That means if you have the knowledge and imagination, you don't have tons of capital to make a product.quot; Malone @ Cornell Tuesday, October 21, 2008
  • 24. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist Some masses, together, are beating ‘the Firm’ Tuesday, October 21, 2008
  • 25. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist Tuesday, October 21, 2008
  • 26. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist Large Ideas are not exclusive to large Entities Ideas are the currency of the Future Tuesday, October 21, 2008
  • 27. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist Powerful Ideas will be provided from ANYWHERE Tuesday, October 21, 2008
  • 28. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist About Crowd-Sourcing Tuesday, October 21, 2008
  • 29. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist Crowd-Sourcing Principles Used to be Is / Will be Not invented here Proudly Found Elsewhere Local search Network search Company Community Firm owns all Firm earns and keeps trust Tuesday, October 21, 2008
  • 30. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist Crowd + Cloud = Our Future Tuesday, October 21, 2008
  • 31. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist AG Lafley (CEO): “P&G has about 8,500 researchers; and we figured there are another 1.5 million similar researchers with pertinent areas of expertise. Why not pick their brains?” Since Lafley took over the company, its stock price has surpassed its former highs and net profits tripled to $10bn in 2007. Tuesday, October 21, 2008
  • 32. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist So what happens when... 64% of U.S. teenagers create content online ★ They grow up and become professionals? ★ They start / run their own companies? ★ The tools of cheap production & low-cost, fast and mobile connectivity finally become available in the so-called developing countries? Tuesday, October 21, 2008
  • 33. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist ๏ Professional amateurs only ๏ 60.000 part-time photographers ๏ 3.5 Million images and 100.000 videos ๏ 38 forum posts per minute ๏ Paid out $27 Million to creators in 2007 ๏ 2 Million customers buying ๏ Sold for $50 Million to Getty Images in 2005 ๏ Huge cost savings for design firms etc ๏ Great example for lower cost AND higher convenience ๏ Great example for the power of Pro-Am sourcing ๏ Non-crowdsourced incumbents find it hard to compete Tuesday, October 21, 2008
  • 34. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist Product Development Decision Making Source: Flickr hillarylmrore Tuesday, October 21, 2008
  • 35. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist Command and Control Attract & Aggregate Tuesday, October 21, 2008
  • 36. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist What used to matter... Cash Location Age Gender Race Pedigree Qualification Tuesday, October 21, 2008
  • 37. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist What matters now Reputation Merit Credibility Creativity Innovation Quality Tuesday, October 21, 2008
  • 38. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist Infinitely more than just the sum of its parts Photo Credit: unknown.. looking! Tuesday, October 21, 2008
  • 39. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist Summary • During the next 5 years, most of these massive shifts will first be exploited in Asia and BRIC (and then, Europe / U.S.) • Expect massive disruption by newly empowered, networked & de-central Users and Pro-Ams - and embrace it! •Disrupt or be disrupted • Investigate social production and crowd-sourcing ideas •Relentlessly pursue openness everywhere Tuesday, October 21, 2008
  • 40. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist Telco Futures Content & Data Services Tuesday, October 21, 2008