Books 2.0: The Future of Books and Publishing

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This is an edited version of a presentation at the March 19, 2010 Books 2.0 event at Olswang in London see http://www.books20.net. More comments are available via the Twitter #books20 hashtag.

Topics: the toxic assumptions of the music industry and what book publishers could learn from them, the reality of upside-down consumers (digital access first), the ecology of selling access vs selling copies, the Napster-Moment in eBooks - and what to do about (or rather, with) it, the characteristics of 'Reading 2.0', the new definition of books, media as a service and the potentials of 'content in the cloud', the future role of publishers... and much more. More details at http://gerd.fm/az1L3s

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  • What a great slides about digital book publishing! As R. Paul Singh said, publishers should pay more attention on digital publishing instead of writing. It is popular for interactive media rich books with video,audio,flash, hyperlink, etc. This YouTube http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aKaptqBKkCs shows how to add video to e-book by Kvisoft Flipbook Maker Pro
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  • Very thoughtful and thorough article. The challenge in today's model for a writer to create an interactive media rich book is that they need to be a programmer rather than a writer.
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  • Thank Leonhard for your valued slide
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  • Here is a video from the same event, first take ... more soon

    <br /><object type="application/x-shockwave-flash" data="http://blip.tv/play/gpFZgc71BAI%2Em4v" width="350" height="288"><param name="movie" value="http://blip.tv/play/gpFZgc71BAI%2Em4v"></param><embed src="http://blip.tv/play/gpFZgc71BAI%2Em4v" width="350" height="288" type="application/x-shockwave-flash"></embed></object>
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  • Can i download it. Would you mind if you share for me
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Books 2.0: The Future of Books and Publishing

  1. 1. Books 2.0: The Future of Books, Reading & Publishing Gerd Leonhard, London, March 19, 2010 www.mediafuturist.com twitter.com/gleonhard
  2. 2. The Music Industry: a great example for
  3. 3. “What does the Future look like, and how can we adapt to it...?” Source: Morgan Stanley Conference 2009
  4. 4. The Future:Upside-down ‘Consumers’ Digital access to books will come first, physical copies will be second.
  5. 5. 2 clear mid- to long-term trends: In Commerce, the importance of many physical things will decline - and almost anything ‘digital’ will grow In Media, anything that provides ‘only copies’ will decline in importance - almost anything that provides context, relevance and ‘real experiences’ will grow
  6. 6. In the Future of Books, Retail may well become... Re-Mail Re-Link Re-Package
  7. 7. And maybe, on-demand Source: Open Parachute Blog
  8. 8. The Ecology of Access is dramatically different...
  9. 9. Distribution of ‘Copies’ as the main income stream is probably:
  10. 10. What does the Future look like, and how can we delay it?
  11. 11. Welcome to the past ;) What does the Future look like, and how can we delay it?
  12. 12. An crucial requirement: Trusting the Users From the recent survey: “Essentials of Digital Books from the Consumer’s Point of View “ *DBW via Slideshare
  13. 13. Books: the Napster Moment is here Ubiquitous availability of digital copies of books is absolutely certain, and imminent
  14. 14. “The People formerly known as Consumers”
  15. 15. Growth in eBook adoption and the resulting changes in book publishing are likely be to be extremely exponential ...not linear (Ray Kurzweil Huffington Post)
  16. 16. Behavior Changes also brings new dangers;)
  17. 17. Soon: The other 3 Billion (O3B) Wikipedia: “by allowing direct connection to core networks and 3G Cellular/ WiMAX towers, the O3b Networks system will completely change the economics of telecommunications infrastructure in the world's fastest- growing markets for communications services”
  18. 18. Mobile Social Connected Transparent Real-Time
  19. 19. Reading 2.0 Source: Nokia Labs
  20. 20. And what’s new about that......? • Controlled by the users • Cross-media by default • Interactive • Inter-connected and social, by default • Location-aware • Blurring the lines between reading stuff (fka Books) and watching (fka TV)
  21. 21. “Walk into the Book” Augmented Reality 3D Screens Holography Smell
  22. 22. User Interfaces make all the difference The computer is work. The iPhone is ... kind of work. The iPad / Tablet is... not work
  23. 23. Reading 2.0: ‘Not Work’
  24. 24. Books become... Radio... TV? Via Paidcontent UK: Penguin CEO John Makinson The Definition of “Book” is up for grabs
  25. 25. The Key to Monetizing: Immersion.
  26. 26. Touch = Immersion = Value = $$
  27. 27. Media Evolutions Past: obtaining information (data) and communication was (is) important Present: access to relevant content becomes more important Soon: context / social / real-time and the experience becomes the crucial differentiator
  28. 28. C on Re Packaging is T EX lev T an ce is is Content is King
  29. 29. What matters is no longer that we can actually connect and ‘download‘ all of it but who we connect with and what we actually get i.e. Content, Context, Curation, The Experience
  30. 30. Everything is shifting into... ...and only then it may also ‘embody’
  31. 31. Content as a Service (CaaS)
  32. 32. ‘Sell Access’ Model ‘Sell Copy’ Model
  33. 33. This is happening pretty much everywhere From a packaged-goods i.e. ‘stuff’ mentality to a service and ‘experience’ mentality
  34. 34. versus
  35. 35. Content 2.0: the pricing logic flips Price Users 100 75 50 25 0 Was Will be
  36. 36. Books 2.0: where is the value? Content i.e. ‘The Words’ Context i.e. Why? How? Curation & Services 15% “People Like Me” Interactivity 30% 5% Packaging & Formats 10% 20% 20% 100% Content / Copy
  37. 37. No recipe. Yet. Content i.e. ‘the words’ 11% 22% Context i.e. why? Curation & Services 33% People Like Me Interactivity 33% Packaging & Format 20% 30% 40% 5% 45% 10% 10% 5% 15% 20%
  38. 38. I pay, you pay, they pay *tx to Shelly Palmer Advertisers Bundles Telecoms Subscriptions Device Makers Flat Rates Consumers Governments Social Payments Micro-Payments
  39. 39. I pay, you pay, they pay *tx to Shelly Palmer SubscriptionsMicro-Payments Advertisers Consumers Bundles Telecoms Flat Rates Social Payments Governments Device Makers
  40. 40. Time & Place Value Packaging Price
  41. 41. 4 Examples
  42. 42. Expensive Cheaper Flat-Rated New Ecosystem Expensive
  43. 43. Not mere consumption... Access, Packaging... Service!
  44. 44. Books 2.0 <> Telecom 2.0 Experience Platform Content Pipe Service Pipe Data Pipe
  45. 45. ISPs and Mobile Operators will move up the food-chain: Social Networking Content Services Communication 2.0 Money 2.0 eLearning
  46. 46. Control ≠ Money Egosystem  Ecosystem
  47. 47. The Future
  48. 48. Forcing to buy is like... forcing to love
  49. 49. Friction is Fiction
  50. 50. “Sharing” is not a negotiable feature
  51. 51. The primary challenge to creating new ecosystems: depending on others...?
  52. 52. Hyper-Competition  Hyper-Collaboration
  53. 53. A definitive future: Social Books Social feeds have enabled content discovery through friends Overwhelmed with choices, consumers increasingly turn to each other Social networks proliferate to third party sites, friends go everywhere Source: Gigya
  54. 54. Books online = conversation = free marketing Kevin Kelly: "In the new world of books, every bit informs another; every page reads all the other pages”
  55. 55. Retailer Publisher Writer The Future Role of Publishers...?
  56. 56. Publisher 2.0 Upstream Downstream Source: STLPartners / Telco20.net
  57. 57. Publisher 2.0 • Filtering, curation, context-making • Aggregation and connecting things • All that boring logistical & practical stuff (aka ‘services’ and platforms) • All things that require serious scale (yes, that does still matter) or real leverage • All that expertise that is non-core for the writer
  58. 58. The Future Role of Publishers...
  59. 59. Publisher 2.0 Bu t. .. • Writers will need to take on a lot more responsibilities, and become equal partners • The financial relationships will shift more towards agenting models • Tim OReilly: “...add more value than you extract” may be a tough mission
  60. 60. Noise  Attraction
  61. 61. The rising tide: but where is YOUR boat?
  62. 62. Advertising will be re-born as... Content - and we will actually want to see it! Advertising will continue to pay for a lot of ‘free’ content Mobile, video, social, location, augmented reality = major shifts in what ‘advertising’ actually means
  63. 63. Because...
  64. 64. Thanks for your attention! App Store: “Media Futurist” email me at gerd@mediafuturist.com twitter.com/gleonhard facebook: gleonhard

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