Books 2.0: The Future of Books and Publishing

Books 2.0: The Future of Books, Reading & Publishing Gerd Leonhard, London, March 19, 2010 www.mediafuturist.com twitter.com/gleonhard

The Music Industry: a great example for

“What does the Future look like, and how can we adapt to it...?” Source: Morgan Stanley Conference 2009

The Future:Upside-down ‘Consumers’ Digital access to books will come first, physical copies will be second.

2 clear mid- to long-term trends: In Commerce, the importance of many physical things will decline - and almost anything ‘digital’ will grow In Media, anything that provides ‘only copies’ will decline in importance - almost anything that provides context, relevance and ‘real experiences’ will grow

In the Future of Books, Retail may well become... Re-Mail Re-Link Re-Package

And maybe, on-demand Source: Open Parachute Blog

The Ecology of Access is dramatically different...

Distribution of ‘Copies’ as the main income stream is probably:

What does the Future look like, and how can we delay it?

Welcome to the past ;) What does the Future look like, and how can we delay it?

An crucial requirement: Trusting the Users From the recent survey: “Essentials of Digital Books from the Consumer’s Point of View “ *DBW via Slideshare

Books: the Napster Moment is here Ubiquitous availability of digital copies of books is absolutely certain, and imminent

“The People formerly known as Consumers”

Growth in eBook adoption and the resulting changes in book publishing are likely be to be extremely exponential ...not linear (Ray Kurzweil Huffington Post)

Behavior Changes also brings new dangers;)

Soon: The other 3 Billion (O3B) Wikipedia: “by allowing direct connection to core networks and 3G Cellular/ WiMAX towers, the O3b Networks system will completely change the economics of telecommunications infrastructure in the world's fastest- growing markets for communications services”

Mobile Social Connected Transparent Real-Time

Reading 2.0 Source: Nokia Labs

And what’s new about that......? • Controlled by the users • Cross-media by default • Interactive • Inter-connected and social, by default • Location-aware • Blurring the lines between reading stuff (fka Books) and watching (fka TV)

“Walk into the Book” Augmented Reality 3D Screens Holography Smell

User Interfaces make all the difference The computer is work. The iPhone is ... kind of work. The iPad / Tablet is... not work

Reading 2.0: ‘Not Work’

Books become... Radio... TV? Via Paidcontent UK: Penguin CEO John Makinson The Definition of “Book” is up for grabs

The Key to Monetizing: Immersion.

Touch = Immersion = Value = $$

Media Evolutions Past: obtaining information (data) and communication was (is) important Present: access to relevant content becomes more important Soon: context / social / real-time and the experience becomes the crucial differentiator

C on Re Packaging is T EX lev T an ce is is Content is King

What matters is no longer that we can actually connect and ‘download‘ all of it but who we connect with and what we actually get i.e. Content, Context, Curation, The Experience

Everything is shifting into... ...and only then it may also ‘embody’

Content as a Service (CaaS)

‘Sell Access’ Model ‘Sell Copy’ Model

This is happening pretty much everywhere From a packaged-goods i.e. ‘stuff’ mentality to a service and ‘experience’ mentality

versus

Content 2.0: the pricing logic flips Price Users 100 75 50 25 0 Was Will be

Books 2.0: where is the value? Content i.e. ‘The Words’ Context i.e. Why? How? Curation & Services 15% “People Like Me” Interactivity 30% 5% Packaging & Formats 10% 20% 20% 100% Content / Copy

No recipe. Yet. Content i.e. ‘the words’ 11% 22% Context i.e. why? Curation & Services 33% People Like Me Interactivity 33% Packaging & Format 20% 30% 40% 5% 45% 10% 10% 5% 15% 20%

I pay, you pay, they pay *tx to Shelly Palmer Advertisers Bundles Telecoms Subscriptions Device Makers Flat Rates Consumers Governments Social Payments Micro-Payments

I pay, you pay, they pay *tx to Shelly Palmer SubscriptionsMicro-Payments Advertisers Consumers Bundles Telecoms Flat Rates Social Payments Governments Device Makers

Time & Place Value Packaging Price

4 Examples

Expensive Cheaper Flat-Rated New Ecosystem Expensive

Not mere consumption... Access, Packaging... Service!

Books 2.0 <> Telecom 2.0 Experience Platform Content Pipe Service Pipe Data Pipe

ISPs and Mobile Operators will move up the food-chain: Social Networking Content Services Communication 2.0 Money 2.0 eLearning

Control ≠ Money Egosystem  Ecosystem

The Future

Forcing to buy is like... forcing to love

Friction is Fiction

“Sharing” is not a negotiable feature

The primary challenge to creating new ecosystems: depending on others...?

Hyper-Competition  Hyper-Collaboration

A definitive future: Social Books Social feeds have enabled content discovery through friends Overwhelmed with choices, consumers increasingly turn to each other Social networks proliferate to third party sites, friends go everywhere Source: Gigya

Books online = conversation = free marketing Kevin Kelly: "In the new world of books, every bit informs another; every page reads all the other pages”

Retailer Publisher Writer The Future Role of Publishers...?

Publisher 2.0 Upstream Downstream Source: STLPartners / Telco20.net

Publisher 2.0 • Filtering, curation, context-making • Aggregation and connecting things • All that boring logistical & practical stuff (aka ‘services’ and platforms) • All things that require serious scale (yes, that does still matter) or real leverage • All that expertise that is non-core for the writer

The Future Role of Publishers...

Publisher 2.0 Bu t. .. • Writers will need to take on a lot more responsibilities, and become equal partners • The financial relationships will shift more towards agenting models • Tim OReilly: “...add more value than you extract” may be a tough mission

Noise  Attraction

The rising tide: but where is YOUR boat?

Advertising will be re-born as... Content - and we will actually want to see it! Advertising will continue to pay for a lot of ‘free’ content Mobile, video, social, location, augmented reality = major shifts in what ‘advertising’ actually means

Because...

Thanks for your attention! App Store: “Media Futurist” email me at gerd@mediafuturist.com twitter.com/gleonhard facebook: gleonhard

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Books 2.0: The Future of Books and Publishing

by Gerd Leonhard on Mar 19, 2010

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