Asb gsg meeting_limaoct_2010_glennhyman&williamvivanco

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Asb gsg meeting_limaoct_2010_glennhyman&williamvivanco

  1. 1. Scenarios for REALU in Peru Glenn Hyman and William Vivanco
  2. 2. Content • Background • Carbon stocks • Land use • Rights and governance • Scenarios • Multi-stakeholder negotiation
  3. 3. 72 million hectares of natural forests Natural forest 72 million ha Coast 2,8 million ha Highlands 1,8 million ha Tropical forest 67,2 million ha Areas for plantation 10 million ha Total population 25 million Total surface 1.29 million km2 2.9 ha/per capita Peru overview
  4. 4. R.D.del Congo Fuente: FAO, 2001 (3, 856 millones de ha) 64.1 69.8 105.0 135.2 158.1 163.5 226.0 244.6 532.5 851.4 71.9 India Angola Perú Indonesia Australia China EE.UU. Canadá Brasil Rusia 9th WORLD SURFACE IN NATURAL FOREST (2000) Peru occupies the ninth place in the world
  5. 5. MAIN COUNTRIES WITH HIGH BIOLOGICAL DIVERSITY IN THE World ECUADOR 297ZAIRE 216INDIA 1200INDIA 350 PERU 365CHINA 261BOLIVIA 1250COLOMBIA 359 COLOMBIA 383INDONESIA 270VENEZUELA 1275CHINA 394 INDIA 453MEXICO 282ECUADOR 1447ZAIRE 409 BRASIL 467PERU 332INDONESIA 1519BRASIL 428 INDONESIA 600ECUADOR 358BRASIL 1622MEXICO 449 AUSTRALIA 686COLOMBIA 407COLOMBIA 1721PERU 460 MEXICO 717BRASIL 516PERU 1800INDONESIA 515 REPTILESANFIBIOSAVESMAMIFEROS 1º place in birds. 2º place in mammals. 2º place lugar in fishes. 4º place in anfibians. 7º place in reptiles. Peru has 25000 especies de plantas (30% are endémic species) PERÚ Megadiverse country
  6. 6. Forest plantations 0.7 Mill Ha Natural forest for harvest 24.0 mill. Ha Forest for Protectión of River basin 4.0 Mill Ha Indigenous people forest) 18.0 Mill Ha Natural Protected Areas (ANP). 19.0 Mill. Ha Forest classification Local forest (colonizer) 6,0 Mill. Ha
  7. 7. Deforestatión 160,000 ha /year - Agriculture and other use 90% of deforestation for migratory agriculture and use as firewood. - Ilegal logging Mainly in native comunities Firewood for agriculture Main Problems related with Forest Management
  8. 8. Peru deforestation projections Year Forest (Sq.Km) Deforested (Sq.Km) Annual rate of change (%) % Deforested 2001 661,562.37 65,348.77 0 0.10 2005 656,625.64 70,285.51 1.51 0.11 2010 649,802.15 77,108.99 1.94 0.12 2015 642,419.04 84,492.11 1.91 0.13 2020 634,524.26 92,386.89 1.87 0.15 2025 626,277.71 100,633.43 1.79 0.16 2030 617,651.42 109,259.72 1.71 0.18 2035 608,685.35 118,225.79 1.64 0.19 2040 599,379.51 127,531.64 1.57 0.21 2045 589,765.87 137,145.28 1.51 0.23 2050 579,904.39 147,006.75 1.44 0.25 0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1 % Forested AMAZON INITIATIVE MAP SERVER (IAViewer © 2010) Peru - Estimated Future Deforestation (2001 - 2030) http://www.iamazonica.org.br/IAViewer - Deforestation Module Source: Modeling conservation in the Amazon basin. © G&B Moore Foundation / LBA SIMAmazonia Project, led by Soares-Filho B. S. et al. 2006.
  9. 9. Social Impacts Extreme rural poverty of surrounding communities
  10. 10. Objective : To promote sustainable forest management Main Work area: EEA Pucallpa - Ucayali SEEA San Bernardo – Madre de Dios EEA San Roque – Loreto EEA El Porvenir – San Martin INIA: AMAZON JOBS Peruvian Amazon
  11. 11. Main INIA Actions on Climate Change 1. Development of agroforestry technologies 2. Transfer technology to local farmers 3. Installation of germplasm banks for forest species 4. Promotion of the use of Forest species with Economic potential 5. Studies on carbon stocks in different land use types
  12. 12. REALU
  13. 13. Carbon stock dynamics
  14. 14. Deforestation and degradation "... a problem of terminology?? Deforestation Degradation 1. A review of definitions on forests, deforestation and degradation (M.Rugnitz Tito and Julio Ugarte)
  15. 15. Trees in non- forest areas C-stock assessment Global map (Zomer et al. 2009) overlaid on Aguaytia forest map
  16. 16. Manual for measuring carbon stocks on small farms: towards improved accounting for REALU
  17. 17. Land use, livelihoods
  18. 18. Pucallpa Land Use Workshop: developing the land use legend
  19. 19. First products Recent, coherent, distortion reduced imagery Raw ETM+ data Uncorrected ETM+ Mosaic *Sensor gaps closed *cloud cover reduced *atmospheric errors minimized Corrected ETM+ Mosaic
  20. 20. First results Comparison between visual and digital image classification Land cover map based on visual interpretation Image Mosaic (2009- 2010) Land cover map based on digital classification
  21. 21. • maps available in Google Maps • Validations points linked with Google Fusion tables • platforms for participation in land use assessment and validation Photos and GPS points Taken in the field Field work: making and validating maps
  22. 22. 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% ?
  23. 23. Rights, governance, control over external drivers
  24. 24. Training REALU Workshop : Value Chains REDD 2009
  25. 25. Map REDD actors, emphasizing the institutions Ucayali
  26. 26. Results: Perceptions on the distribution of REDD benefits in Ucayali Fuente: Velarde, SJ. 2009. Líneas de base claras
  27. 27. The State’s eminent domain on natural resources The State’s “eminent domain” means that the State has eminent control over natural resources which are National Patrimony. The State does not own natural resources, but exercise eminent domain on them, and thus on the goods and products offered by them until they are granted as concession or other schemes, in accordance with the law. The State is responsible for the resources management on behalf of the Nation. The State is responsible for ensuring that such use is conducted under the provisions of the relevant legislation. The state cannot "trade" the natural resources, but it may grant rights to third parties for their sustainable use according to pertinent law. 2. A legal review of access to resources, tenure and possible REDD related conflicts in Peru (JL Capella, M Sandoval, S Velarde)
  28. 28. Scenarios
  29. 29. Accessibility Travel time Digital Elevation Model Annual Precipitation Geomorphology Soils Land change modeling Deforestation = f (x * y * z……)
  30. 30. EL COSTO DE OPORTUNIDAD DE EVITAR LAS EMISIONES PRODUCIDAS POR LA DEFORESTACIÓN ¿Cuánto valen las oportunidades económicas que los agricultores dejarían de aprovechar si es que redujeran las emisiones producidas por la deforestación?
  31. 31. Negotiation
  32. 32. Outcomes: + Increased national partners capacity about REDD and carbon accounting. + Increased awareness of national partners on the differences between deforestation and degradation + Increased awareness about the importance of trees on farms for carbon accounting in the Peruvian Andean-Amazon + Testing methods for landscape carbon accounting in the Amazon.
  33. 33. Current trajectory
  34. 34. High carbon stock development pathway Photos courtesy of Valentina

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