GLCRSP/Livestock Early
Warning System:
A tool that holds promise for an
integrated natural resource-based
conflict Management.
Abdi Jama

Global Livestock CRSP
Early Warning System for Monitoring Nutrition and Livestock Health
for Food Security of Humans in East Africa.
…..blending monitoring/modeling and spatial technologies
to improve food security of pastoral communities
in East Africa
Lead Institution: Texas A&M University System

Livestock Early Warning System
for East Africa
• -

Livestock Early Warning
System

Conflict Early Warning and Response
Mechanism for the IGAD Region

LEWS Policy Meeting in Entebbe,
Uganda 1998

Key Products of LEWS
• Automated forage supply modeling
package
– Satellite based rainfall estimates (RFE)
– Satellite based Normalized Difference
Vegetation Index (NDVI).
• Livestock movement modeling.
• Water monitoring system
• Deployment of a rural ICT technology
and development communications
strategies.

LEWS Forage Supply Monitoring

Integration of Models and Imagery
Max Temperature
Regional Forage
Maps
MinTemperature
Geostatistical
PHYGROW Analysis
Model
Rainfall
Servers
Climate Imagery Site Analysis with 90-Day Forecasting

Waterhole Monitoring in E. Africa

A Waterhole in Southern Ethiopia

Community Information Centers
• Low levels of computer literacy, limited power
supply, and harsh and dusty climatic
conditions.
• System delivers relevant local language and
international content.
• Equipment: rugged, energy efficient desktop
computer, an ink efficient printer, a
WorldSpace satellite receiver, and a
CD/cassette/AM/FM radio, all of which are
powered by solar energy and designed to
withstand the elements of heat and dust in
the arid regions of Eastern Africa

CEWARN Mandate
To collect and share information
concerning potentially violent conflicts
as well as their outbreak and escalation
in the IGAD region, undertake analysis
of the information and develop case
scenarios and formulate options for
response.

Focus on Pastoral Conflicts
– CEWARN mandate covers all types of conflicts, but it was
agreed that, as entry point, the Mechanism should start by
monitoring cross-border pastoral conflicts, because:
– Over 60% of the region’s land is arid and semi-arid
lands inhabited by pastoralists.
– Agreement among Member States on the need to
address the plight of pastoral communities across
borders of the IGAD region.
– Many conflicts in the region are natural resource
based.
– The focus on pastoral conflicts is a spring board for
building the necessary confidence among MS to
address other conflicts through EW and ER

Conflict in the Eastern Africa
Region
No Comment
34

Karamoja and Somali Clusters

CEWARN Functions
– Collection of information
– Analysis
– Formulation of most likely case scenarios and
response options.
– Communication of recommendations on policy and
response options to prevent/mitigate pastoral
conflicts to decision-makers
– Promote the exchange of information and
collaboration among IGAD MS on EW and ER
– Creation of linkages and sharing information with
other regional and international organizations
dealing with Early Warning and Early Response.

Organizational Structure of the CEWARN
Mechanism
IGAD Council of Ministers
IGAD Secretariat
R CPS
E Peace & Agriculture & Economic
Committee of Permanent Secretaries
G Security Environme Cooperation
I Policy Decisions at Regional Level Division Division
nt
O Division
N
A Sub-Regional
L Peace Councils TCEW
Technical Committee CEWARN Unit
(to be created) on Early Warning Coordination, Monitoring and Quality Control
EARLY RESPONSE EARLY WARNING
N structur
A e in all CEWERU NRI
T IGAD Conflict Early Warning National Research Institutes
I Member and Early Response Unit
O States (Steering Committees) CC
N CEWARN Country Coordinator
A Response Initiatives
L Coding and Analysis of Information
Early Warning Reports
L
O
C Local Committees FM Structural
A Field Monitors Relation
Implementation at Local Level
L
Data Collection in Flow of
Areas of Reporting Information

Conclusion
• The integration of LEWS technology to
CEWARN will provide a missing link
i.e.:
Linking Early warning to response
and contingency planning

Pastoralists???