<ul><li>IGS-BPRC Meeting, Ohio State University, 17 August 2010 </li></ul>GLACIER RECESSION & HUMAN VULNERABILITY IN THE C...
<ul><li>Jeff McKenzie </li></ul><ul><li>Jeffrey Bury </li></ul><ul><li>Sarah Fortner (Postdoc) </li></ul><ul><li>Nathan St...
Tropical Andean Glaciers 71% in Peru 22% in Bolivia 4% in Ecuador 3% in Colombia ~1% Venezuela Source-J. Bury UC-Santa Cru...
Cordillera Blanca Peru Huandoy (6395 m) <ul><li>Most glacierized of tropical mountains </li></ul><ul><li>Millennial-scale ...
 
Regional climate model PDF of annual temperature in the Andes for 1961-90 (blue) and 2071-2100 (green-B2, red-A2) Mean tem...
<ul><li>~25% of glacierized area has receded since 1970 </li></ul><ul><li>~20% Rio Santa annual flow from net glacier melt...
Interdisciplinary Research  Objectives & Methods <ul><li>Quantify glacial volume changes </li></ul><ul><ul><li>LiDAR, phot...
<ul><li>Llanganuco  </li></ul><ul><li>(36% glacierized) </li></ul><ul><li>(2) Quilcay </li></ul><ul><li>(17% glacierized) ...
Tributaries to Rio Santa:  Normalized annual discharge anomalies  ( 1953-1997) <ul><li>>20% glacier cover (n=2): </li></ul...
<ul><li>All glacier streams (n=7): </li></ul><ul><li>Significant increasing trend prior to 1983 </li></ul><ul><li>Almost s...
<ul><li>Rio Santa at hydro power plant: </li></ul><ul><li>Significant decreasing trend </li></ul>La Balsa
HBCM: distributed, multi-component mixing model at the watershed scale Baraer et al. 2009, Adv Geosci
Simplified watershed characteristics M. Baraer (1) Llanganuco (2) Quilcay (3) Querococha
Spatial variability of meltwater & groundwater (1) Llanganuco (2) Quilcay (3) Querococha M. Baraer
M. Baraer
Stream flow time series analysis:  test anticipated dynamic influence of glacier melt <ul><li>Multi-decadal specific dry-s...
New discharge logger prototype 1.5m 0.7m 0.1m 0.08m (int)
 
Water balance model discharge
Discharge simulation by glacier retreat rate ( γ)  scenarios <ul><li>There is no increase in discharge if  γ  does not inc...
Phase of glacier melt influence on discharge <ul><li>Possible to predict what phase a particular watershed is in (trend in...
Discharge phase comparison with historic & new observations
Regional synthesis <ul><li>For the majority of the studied watershed, the dry season discharge is in a decreasing phase, i...
Fortner Present water quality issues in the Upper Rio Santa, Peru Mine Tailings Rio Santa
Fortner
Fortner
Fortner
Fortner What does this mean for glacial ecosystems? <ul><li>How do glaciers impact water quality? </li></ul><ul><li>What r...
Rio Quilcay Glacier fed headwaters Melt routed through shallow wetlands Metamorphic sedimentary rocks, sulfide deposits La...
Discharge = ~1.2 m 3 /s, ~3/5 from NE, ~2/5 from NW
Unusual tributary in northeast Below convergence Lake feeding northwest branch
Alpine vegetation (w/o lake drainage) Wetlands Less  Vegetation Lakes pH rapidly decreases downstream, then increases
Sulfide mineral oxidation tributary:  Elevated concentrations of DOC, all metals (except Cu, Pb)
Fortner 1 Cameron et al., 1995;  2 Schuster, 2005 Tributary exceeds WHO drinking water standards
Silicate Weathering in Glacial Meltwater from the Cordillera Blanca Relative to specific runoff, high cation flux indicate...
Summary of insights Quantity: <ul><li>Glacier melt water buffering is scale dependent </li></ul><ul><li>Multi-decadal decr...
Fortner <ul><li>Quality: </li></ul><ul><li>Cation flux suggests tropical glaciers have high rates of chemical weathering (...
Related publications <ul><li>Baraer, M., J.M. McKenzie, B.G. Mark and S. Knox (2009). Characterizing contributions of glac...
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Glacier Change and Human Vulnerability

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  • White line elevation of highest mountains in the grid used to make the model. Triangles are the elevations of the highest mountains at those latitudes. The white area was not modelled.
  • In Peru, glacier melt is important not only for hydropower, but for agricultural and domestic use. Therefore, it it is important to understand stream geochemitsry and how it relates to human heath. Will water quality get worse with the loss of glacial melt?
  • In Peru, glacier melt is important not only for hydropower, but for agricultural and domestic use. Therefore, it it is important to understand stream geochemitsry and how it relates to human heath. Will water quality get worse with the loss of glacial melt?
  • In Peru, glacier melt is important not only for hydropower, but for agricultural and domestic use. Therefore, it it is important to understand stream geochemitsry and how it relates to human heath. Will water quality get worse with the loss of glacial melt?
  • In Peru, glacier melt is important not only for hydropower, but for agricultural and domestic use. Therefore, it it is important to understand stream geochemitsry and how it relates to human heath. Will water quality get worse with the loss of glacial melt?
  • Thank you for inviting me here. It is my pleasure to speak to you about Mountain Glacier Melt Geochemistry and share some insights from reesearch in the Antarctic Dry Valleys and the Cordillera Blanca, Peru
  • Make note that headwaters are neutral
  • references
  • Glacier Change and Human Vulnerability

    1. 1. <ul><li>IGS-BPRC Meeting, Ohio State University, 17 August 2010 </li></ul>GLACIER RECESSION & HUMAN VULNERABILITY IN THE CORDILLERA BLANCA, PERU B.G. Mark (1) , J. Bury (2), J.M. McKenzie (3), T. Condom (4), M. Baraer (3), Adam French (2), K.I. Huh (1), Sarah Fortner (1) and Ricardo Jesus Gomez (5) (1) Geography & BPRC, Ohio State University, (2) Environmental Studies, UCSC, (3) Earth and Planetary Sciences, McGill University, (4) Institut de Recherche pour le Développement, France; (5) Unidad de Glaciologia y Recursos Hidricos, Peru http://www.water4people.org/
    2. 2. <ul><li>Jeff McKenzie </li></ul><ul><li>Jeffrey Bury </li></ul><ul><li>Sarah Fortner (Postdoc) </li></ul><ul><li>Nathan Stansell (Postdoc) </li></ul><ul><li>Christopher Hopkinson </li></ul><ul><li>Joel Harper </li></ul><ul><li>Lonnie & Ellen Mosley Thompson </li></ul><ul><li>W. Berry Lyons </li></ul><ul><li>Kyung In Huh (PhD) </li></ul><ul><li>Jeff LaFrenierre (PhD) </li></ul><ul><li>Michel Baraer (PhD) </li></ul><ul><li>Adam French (PhD) </li></ul><ul><li>Jacob Hindin </li></ul><ul><li>Eric Haas </li></ul><ul><li>Patrick Burns </li></ul><ul><li>Michael Shoenfelt </li></ul><ul><li>Alyssa Singer </li></ul><ul><li>Shawn Stone </li></ul>http://bprc.osu.edu/glacierchange <ul><li>Toby Meierbachtol </li></ul><ul><li>Adam Clark </li></ul><ul><li>Ing. Ricardo J. Gomez </li></ul><ul><li>Ing. Marco Zapata </li></ul><ul><li>Unidad de Glaciologia y Recursos Hidricos </li></ul>
    3. 3. Tropical Andean Glaciers 71% in Peru 22% in Bolivia 4% in Ecuador 3% in Colombia ~1% Venezuela Source-J. Bury UC-Santa Cruz NASA Worldwind
    4. 4. Cordillera Blanca Peru Huandoy (6395 m) <ul><li>Most glacierized of tropical mountains </li></ul><ul><li>Millennial-scale history of intensive use </li></ul><ul><li>Glacier-fed runoff to coastal desert cities (~15 million) </li></ul><ul><li>Sensitive to shifting climate </li></ul>Source-J. Bury UC-Santa Cruz NASA Worldwind http:// newark.osu.edu/facultystaff/personal/dleavell/Pages/default.aspx
    5. 6. Regional climate model PDF of annual temperature in the Andes for 1961-90 (blue) and 2071-2100 (green-B2, red-A2) Mean temperature change (2071-2100 minus 1961-90) as simulated with PRECIS (Urrutia & Vuille, 2009) B2 scenario A2 scenario
    6. 7. <ul><li>~25% of glacierized area has receded since 1970 </li></ul><ul><li>~20% Rio Santa annual flow from net glacier melt (~40% in dry season) </li></ul><ul><li>Future concern: sustainable water (quantity & quality) </li></ul>Source-J. Bury UC-Santa Cruz NASA Worldwind Rio Santa
    7. 8. Interdisciplinary Research Objectives & Methods <ul><li>Quantify glacial volume changes </li></ul><ul><ul><li>LiDAR, photogrammetry, radar </li></ul></ul><ul><li>(2) Evaluate impact of glacier melt on water quantity & quality </li></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Discharge trend analyses </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Multi-scale hydrochemical mixing </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><li>(3) Evaluate livelihood adaptation and change </li></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Case-study watersheds </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Household interviews </li></ul></ul></ul>
    8. 9. <ul><li>Llanganuco </li></ul><ul><li>(36% glacierized) </li></ul><ul><li>(2) Quilcay </li></ul><ul><li>(17% glacierized) </li></ul><ul><li>(3) Querococha </li></ul><ul><li>(3% glacierized) </li></ul>Glacier tributaries Case-study watersheds Discharge Station Colcas Los Cedros Paron Llanganuco Chancos Querococha Pachacoto La Recreta
    9. 10. Tributaries to Rio Santa: Normalized annual discharge anomalies ( 1953-1997) <ul><li>>20% glacier cover (n=2): </li></ul><ul><li>Significant increasing trend (i.e. more runoff) </li></ul><ul><li>Correlated (+) to temperature trend </li></ul>
    10. 11. <ul><li>All glacier streams (n=7): </li></ul><ul><li>Significant increasing trend prior to 1983 </li></ul><ul><li>Almost significant decreasing trend after </li></ul>
    11. 12. <ul><li>Rio Santa at hydro power plant: </li></ul><ul><li>Significant decreasing trend </li></ul>La Balsa
    12. 13. HBCM: distributed, multi-component mixing model at the watershed scale Baraer et al. 2009, Adv Geosci
    13. 14. Simplified watershed characteristics M. Baraer (1) Llanganuco (2) Quilcay (3) Querococha
    14. 15. Spatial variability of meltwater & groundwater (1) Llanganuco (2) Quilcay (3) Querococha M. Baraer
    15. 16. M. Baraer
    16. 17. Stream flow time series analysis: test anticipated dynamic influence of glacier melt <ul><li>Multi-decadal specific dry-season discharge </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Mann-Kendall test of historical trends </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Check new observations </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Re-established stage loggers (2008-10) </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Comparison to water-balance modeled phase of glacier melt impact </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Simulate discharge as function of glacier change </li></ul></ul>
    17. 18. New discharge logger prototype 1.5m 0.7m 0.1m 0.08m (int)
    18. 20. Water balance model discharge
    19. 21. Discharge simulation by glacier retreat rate ( γ) scenarios <ul><li>There is no increase in discharge if γ does not increase over time, regardless of the extent of glacier cover </li></ul><ul><li>Even with an exponential change in the rate of glacier retreat, there still is a point at which the discharge will start to decline </li></ul>
    20. 22. Phase of glacier melt influence on discharge <ul><li>Possible to predict what phase a particular watershed is in (trend in the historical discharge). </li></ul><ul><li>For each phase there is a unique combination of trends that can be matched from the trend analysis. </li></ul>
    21. 23. Discharge phase comparison with historic & new observations
    22. 24. Regional synthesis <ul><li>For the majority of the studied watershed, the dry season discharge is in a decreasing phase, including La Balsa which drains the entire Callejon de Huaylas. </li></ul><ul><li>Basins that have glacier cover comparable to La Balsa (Pachacoto, Querococha, Colcas) are all in decline (phase three or four). </li></ul>
    23. 25. Fortner Present water quality issues in the Upper Rio Santa, Peru Mine Tailings Rio Santa
    24. 26. Fortner
    25. 27. Fortner
    26. 28. Fortner
    27. 29. Fortner What does this mean for glacial ecosystems? <ul><li>How do glaciers impact water quality? </li></ul><ul><li>What role do pro-glacial wetlands play? </li></ul>
    28. 30. Rio Quilcay Glacier fed headwaters Melt routed through shallow wetlands Metamorphic sedimentary rocks, sulfide deposits Large pastureland and eventual municipal water supply How is water quality impacted along flow paths from headwaters?
    29. 31. Discharge = ~1.2 m 3 /s, ~3/5 from NE, ~2/5 from NW
    30. 32. Unusual tributary in northeast Below convergence Lake feeding northwest branch
    31. 33. Alpine vegetation (w/o lake drainage) Wetlands Less Vegetation Lakes pH rapidly decreases downstream, then increases
    32. 34. Sulfide mineral oxidation tributary: Elevated concentrations of DOC, all metals (except Cu, Pb)
    33. 35. Fortner 1 Cameron et al., 1995; 2 Schuster, 2005 Tributary exceeds WHO drinking water standards
    34. 36. Silicate Weathering in Glacial Meltwater from the Cordillera Blanca Relative to specific runoff, high cation flux indicates high chemical weathering rates
    35. 37. Summary of insights Quantity: <ul><li>Glacier melt water buffering is scale dependent </li></ul><ul><li>Multi-decadal decrease in Rio Santa discharge (without decreased precip) suggests increased withdrawal (i.e. demand) </li></ul><ul><li>Groundwater predominates the dry season stream flow </li></ul><ul><li>On a regional level, glacier retreat has already entered (decades ago) a phase of decreasing influence on stream discharge and that this decline should be maintained indefinitely. </li></ul>
    36. 38. Fortner <ul><li>Quality: </li></ul><ul><li>Cation flux suggests tropical glaciers have high rates of chemical weathering (erosion?) </li></ul><ul><li>Metal concentrations already threaten water quality in Peruvian glacial melt streams </li></ul><ul><li>Mn,Ni, Pb, & Zn exceed World Health Drinking Water Standards in tributaries, near limits in stream </li></ul><ul><li>High concentrations from interaction of acidic glacial drainage with freshly exposed rocks….& biological metal oxidation </li></ul>
    37. 39. Related publications <ul><li>Baraer, M., J.M. McKenzie, B.G. Mark and S. Knox (2009). Characterizing contributions of glacier melt and ground water during the dry season in the Cordillera Blanca, Peru. Advances in Geosciences 22 , 41-49. </li></ul><ul><li>Bury, J., A. French, J. McKenzie, and B. Mark (2008). Adapting to Uncertain Futures: A Report on New Glacier Recession and Livelihood Vulnerability Research in the Peruvian Andes. Mountain Research and Development , 28(3/4): 332-333. </li></ul><ul><li>Bury, J., B.G. Mark, J. McKenzie, A. French, M. Baraer, K.I. Huh, M. Zapata and J. Gomez (2010). Glacier recession and human vulnerability in the Yanamarey watershed of the Cordillera Blanca, Peru. Climatic Change , forthcoming. </li></ul><ul><li>Fortner, S., B.G. Mark, J.M. McKenzie, J. Bury, A. Trierweiler, M. Baraer, and L. Munk (2010). Elevated stream trace and minor element concentrations in a tropical proglacial stream. Applied Geochemistry , forthcoming. </li></ul><ul><li>Mark, B.G. and J.M. McKenzie (2007). Tracing increasing tropical Andean glacier melt with stable isotopes in water. Environmental Science and Technology 40 (20), 6955-6960. </li></ul><ul><li>Mark, B.G., J. Bury, J.M. McKenzie, A. French and M. Baraer (2010). Climate Change and Tropical Andean Glacier Recession: Evaluating Hydrologic Changes and Livelihood Vulnerability in the Cordillera Blanca, Peru. Annals of the Association of American Geographers , forthcoming. </li></ul>http:// www.geography.osu.edu/faculty/bmark /

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