Bryan Mark Peru night 1

Recent Peruvian Glacier Changes:An update & why it matters to humansBryan Mark15 February 2012

http://bprc.osu.edu/glacierchange • Nathan Stansell (Res Assoc) • Jeff McKenzie (McGill) • Sarah Fortner (Postdoc) • Laura Lautz (Syracuse) • Jeffrey Bury (UCSC) • Kyung In Huh (PhD) • Ryan Gordon • Scott Reinemann (PhD) • Patrick Burns • Ken Young (UT Austin) • Jeff LaFrenierre (PhD) • Joel Harper (MT) • Mark Carey (U Oregon) • Alfonso Fernandez (PhD) • Toby Meierbachtol • Donald Rodbell (Union College) • Oliver Wigmore (PhD) • Adam Clark • Zicheng Yu (Lehigh) • Michel Baraer (PhD) • Ing. Ricardo J. Gomez • Christopher Hopkinson (NSCC) • Adam French (PhD) • Ing. Cesar Portocarrero • Lonnie & Ellen Thompson (BPRC) • Alex Eddy (MA) • Unidad de Glaciologia y Recursos Hidricos • D. Slayback, K. Yager (NASA) • Nate Patrick (MS)

Science is relational Alcides Ames (1942-2007)

http://bprc.osu.edu/glacierchange

Outline• Perspective on glacier recession• Update on glacier volume loss and river flow• Human vulnerability to glacier recession and climate change in the Cordillera Blanca, Peru• Water resources and coupled systems

Glacier thinning since 1970 (m/yr) Adapted from Dyurgerov and Meier (2005)

Data from World Glacier Monitoring Service (http://www.globalwarmingart.com/)

Tropical Andean Glaciers 71% in Peru 22% in Bolivia 4% in Ecuador 3% in Colombia ~1% VenezuelaSource-J. BuryUC-Santa CruzNASA Worldwind

Observed Andean temperature change •0.10ûC/decade •overall +0.68°C since 1939 •last 20 years: only 2 (1996 and 1999) below the long term (1961-90) average Vuille et al. 2008, Ear Sci Rev 89, 79-96.

Cordillera BlancaSource-J. Bury Since 1970, ~25% ofUC-Santa CruzNASA Worldwind glaciers have melted ~20 million people (70% of country) depend on glaciers ~267,000 people live in Callejon de Huaylas

Cordillera Blanca HuascaránLa Balsa Most glacierized tropical range Highly seasonal precipitation, Rapid glacier loss & rising (competing?) water demand Huaraz 17.0 120 16.5 Precipitation (mm) 100 Temperature (C) 16.0 80 15.5 15.0 60 14.5 40 14.0 20 13.5 13.0 0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Wet season Dry season Tropical glaciers: climate & hydrological responseannual discharge, dry season discharge & flow variability 400 350 La Balsa 1954-2008 daily discharge 300 Discharge (m3/s) 250 200 150 100 50 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Month Credit: M. Baraer

Methods: “high” and “low” tech observations 1. How much ice loss? 2. What impact to local hydrology? 3. What social perception, vulnerability, adaptation?

Time for SpaceVulnerability Case-Studies• Llanganuco-25% glacier area (est 2010) – Sample-52 households • 2.3% of population• Quilcayhuanca-17% glacier area – Sample-32 households • 10.3% of population• Querococha-2% glacier area (est 2010) – Sample-40 households • 5.5% of population

Surface area & volumechanges from multi-sensors (1962-2008)

Surface area change Data Source Year Area(km2) Aerial photo 1962 1.155 ASTER 2001 0.671 ASTER 2002 0.547 ASTER 2004 0.474 ASTER 2005 0.347 ASTER 2007 0.259 ASTER 2008 0.165 1.2 1 Area m2 x 106 0.8 85.7% Surface Area Loss (1962-2008) 0.6 0.4 0.2 0 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 Year

Photo DEM :Volume change Ave. 12.67m (±22) lower than LiDAR DEM Data Source Year diff dV (km3) Aerial photo- 1962-2008L 0.233 LiDAR • Mean surface lowering : 54m • Maximum lowering : 128m Hypsometry

Volume vs. Surface area #1 Volume (V) of #2 #3 valley glaciers is #4 proportion to the surface area (S) Empirical function relating changes in V to S (Chen and Ohmura, 1990) UNDERESTIMATE measurements 0.357 V=38.716S S

What is the glacier meltwater impact downstream? A question of scale 1. Glacier watersheds 2. Downstream confluenceCallejon de Huaylas: populated Rio Santa watershed 3. Tributaries of Rio Santa

Rio Santa at hydro power plant:• Significant decreasing trend

400 350 La Balsa 1954-2008 daily discharge 300Key concerns Discharge (m3/s) 250 200 150 100 50 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Month Moore et al., 2009• What stream flow trends can be discerned in the wake of sustained glacier retreat (fraction of ice cover loss)? – Peak water• What is the actual status of regional water availability?

Glacier coverage bytributary watershedannual fraction of ice loss, The La Balsa watershed, has an average of 0.61 % area loss per year. The average values for the period of 1990-2009 was double that for the period of 1930-2009

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