Virginia ACRL Presentation


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May 8, 2011 to the Virginia ACRL group at VCU.

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  • Many reasons for this: Technology and increasing amount of content on open networks Changes in publishing Supply-chain capabilities and print-on-demand Increased accountability One reason trumps all others – economics Culture, politics, and economics trump technology – but when technology and economics are working hand-in-hand (e.g. iPhone) – then results can be incredible
  • Nobody would argue with those – the trick and the key is actually changing strategies and practices based on realities and likely scenarios. Way we meet these core roles is changing quickly.
  • “ That is what real revolutions are like. The old stuff gets broken faster than the new stuff is put in its place. The importance of any given experiment isn’t apparent at the moment it appears; big changes stall, small changes spread. Even the revolutionaries can’t predict what will happen. Agreements on all sides that core institutions must be protected are rendered meaningless by the very people doing the agreeing. (Luther and the Church both insisted, for years, that whatever else happened, no one was talking about a schism.) Ancient social bargains, once disrupted, can neither be mended nor quickly replaced, since any such bargain takes decades to solidify.” – Clay Shirky “ One of the difficult aspects of change, particularly when it is accompanied by complex technology and multiplying data sources, is the ability to give up an old story and develop a new one. The ‘story’ is a common sense version that unfolds.” – Jennifer James “ I don’t know. Nobody knows. We’re collectively living through 1500, when it’s easier to see what’s broken than what will replace it. The internet turns 40 this fall. Access by the general public is less than half that age. Web use, as a normal part of life for a majority of the developed world, is less than half that age. We just got here. Even the revolutionaries can’t predict what will happen.” – Clay Shirky
  • Difficult to do in a down-cycle economy, but also opens up windows to make changes otherwise would not be able to make.
  • Fantasy football Thought this was the craziest thing – would not last Ignored this is what people want – it met a need and they had fun and they could connect with family and friends across space and time – new modes of collaboration and community Technology enabled new modes of play and operation - community Numbers were clearly pointing in this direction Better to make these mistakes with fantasy football than with something I earn a living at – so fool me once
  • As I said earlier – most of us would not challenge these broad notions of change – trick is in changing practice and freeing up budget to drive and fund changing practice. Let’s look at some of those changing practices.
  • 13,000+ points of data from 700 users – how do you at least run an initial filter through that data? Relationships between usage data and community feedback data. Way more open and data-driven process than ever before where capturing data and feedback and analyzing it in real-time. A lot more rolling these up to analyze packages in similar ways.
  • * All about doing a better job of allocating resources to meet needs -- being more precise in expending resources and acquiring/accessing items to meet needs -- analyzing effectiveness of those efforts and improving -- and then advocating about effectiveness and need for those efforts.
  • Faced with the choice to deliver a slice of content in a localized environment and ability to offer exponentially more content from a variety of sources – most of us, particularly users, will choose the latter to be able to get more content. Creates opportunities related to sense-making. Save the most challenging issues for last three bullets. ILL and article delivery and modes of content all hit legal, cultural, and economics hurdles that are challenging to solve. In some ways this levels the playing field in making similar content available to all sizes of institutions and users – in some ways it poses great challenges since we have built up much of our ILL system on larger research libraries serving as hubs for resource sharing – falls apart in digital environment unless we make moves to preserve that capability. Getting content to users in the way they want to consume it is one of our greatest challenges and opportunities.
  • Reading Ross Atkinson’s Janus conference presentation from 2003 at the dawn of this heavily networked information delivery environment – collaborative imperative he highlighted really stands out – can not solve level of problems and deliver content to users at point of need in a variety of formats without large-scale collaboration – particularly to meet that role as keepers of the scholarly record. HathiTrust, DuraSpace, 2CUL, TRLN.
  • “ Web browser’s dominance is coming to a close. And the Internet’s founding ideology – that information wants to be free, and that attempts to constrain it are not only hopeless but immoral – suddenly seems naïve and stale in the new age of apps, smart phones, and pricing plans.”
  • Virginia ACRL Presentation

    1. 1. Clay Shirky, Fantasy Football, and the Future of Library Collections <ul><li>Greg Raschke </li></ul><ul><li>North Carolina State University </li></ul><ul><li>Virginia ACRL </li></ul><ul><li>May 8, 2011 </li></ul>
    2. 2. Assumptions <ul><li>Economics are not sustainable </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Collections budgets will not grow at rate of past 30 years </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Unit growth and growth in cost per unit are not sustainable </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Need to lower costs of overall system </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Lower unit costs </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Use data and users to be more precise </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Tipping point for ability and expectations to deliver content at point of need </li></ul><ul><li>Therefore collection practices and strategies must change </li></ul><ul><li>This change will be hard – much reason for optimism </li></ul>
    3. 3. Supply-Side Collections <ul><li>Print-based, unpredictable demand, and legitimate need for just in case collections </li></ul><ul><li>Lead to judging quality by size (as in the ARL rankings) and libraries were then held captive to this standard </li></ul><ul><li>Contributed to inelastic demand for journals and combinations of speculative buying </li></ul><ul><li>Use is secondary to size, dollars expended, and other input measures </li></ul><ul><li>Credit to David Lewis ( </li></ul>
    4. 4. Supply-Side Can Not Continue
    5. 5. Demand-Driven Collections – Core Roles <ul><li>Make information easily, widely, and cheaply available </li></ul><ul><li>Collections as drivers of research, teaching, and learning </li></ul><ul><li>To make special or unique collections held/managed by the library available to the user community and the world </li></ul>
    6. 6. Demand-Driven – More Assumptions <ul><li>Less tolerance for and less investment in lower use general collections </li></ul><ul><li>Resource management based increasingly on use </li></ul><ul><li>Modify collecting based on changes in the actual use </li></ul><ul><li>Embrace expansion of available content and sense-making role </li></ul><ul><li>Risks of not evolving and failing to innovate – newspapers </li></ul>
    7. 7. Demand-Driven – Assertions <ul><li>Tension between time-honored role as custodians of scholarship versus enabling digital environment for scholars </li></ul><ul><li>Must work on: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Lowering unit costs of scholarly materials OR </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Lowering number of publishable units </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Must free funds for investing in “new” arenas such as digital curation, PDA, and devices </li></ul>
    8. 8. Demand-Driven – Assertions <ul><li>Rewards of adapting – more used and vital than ever </li></ul><ul><li>Use based and user driven collecting models will take growing share of budget </li></ul><ul><li>Bet on numbers </li></ul><ul><li>Bet on good and quick </li></ul><ul><li>Put resources into enabling digital environment for scholars and custodian role will come out of that strategy </li></ul>
    9. 9. Demand-Driven – Changing Practice <ul><li>Not just PDA – portfolio of approaches - more responsive and expansive </li></ul><ul><li>Utilize new tools and techniques to become advanced analysts and deliver content at point of need </li></ul><ul><li>Truly embrace evidence-based decision making and ability to deliver content on demand </li></ul>
    10. 10. Reducing Unit Costs – Data Analysis <ul><li>Collections work less about selection and more about analyzing use and incorporating content w/technology </li></ul><ul><li>Data analysis is a key component in solving/managing: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Increasing pressure for accountability </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Increasing capability to gather and analyze data </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Increasing precision in the way we build collections and expend resources </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Advocacy </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Changing practice and data analysis at NCSU </li></ul>
    11. 12. Serials Review 2009 – Open, Data-Driven, and Real-Time Analysis <ul><li>Standardized usage data (where available) </li></ul><ul><li>Bibliometrics - publication data and citation patterns (e.g LJUR) </li></ul><ul><li>Impact factor and eigenfactor </li></ul><ul><li>User community feedback via interactive, database-driven applications </li></ul><ul><li>Weigh/calculate/quantify user feedback </li></ul><ul><li>Weigh price against multiple data points </li></ul><ul><li>Usage ((07 usage+08 usage/2)+(publications*10)+ (citations*5)+(Impact Factor) </li></ul><ul><li>Community Feedback ((Weighted Ranking x % Match) x Total # Rankings) + 0.1 x # of &quot;1s“ </li></ul><ul><li>Price/feedback value </li></ul><ul><li>Price/use </li></ul><ul><li>Merge results to filter out top 20% and bottom 20% </li></ul>
    12. 13. Looking closer – Finding balance <ul><li>An example - a closer look at print item usage </li></ul><ul><li>Traditional ILS reporting tools can make this difficult </li></ul><ul><li>Advanced analytical tools can help </li></ul><ul><li>What types of questions can we ask? </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Should Patron-Driven records not purchased be purged after 2 years? </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>How does print item usage break down? </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Do print items even get used? </li></ul></ul>
    13. 14. If it’s not used after 2 years… <ul><li>Should PDA records be purged? </li></ul><ul><li>Maybe… </li></ul><ul><li>We haven’t even hit 50% usage </li></ul><ul><li>But what if we take a longer view… </li></ul>
    14. 15. If it’s not used after 2 years… <ul><li>Things begin to look different </li></ul>
    15. 16. Looking even closer… <ul><li>How does print item use break down? </li></ul><ul><li>Single circ usage is consistently ~14% </li></ul><ul><li>Would this change in a PDA only world? </li></ul>
    16. 17. Expenditures to University Data
    17. 18. Expenditures to University Data
    18. 19. Expenditures to University Data
    19. 20. Expenditures to University Data
    20. 21. Measurable Uses of the Collection 2009/2010 Measurable Uses of the Collection 2009/2010 Full-text journal downloads* 3,672,600 Database use 1,989,972 Print book circulations/renewals 525,430 Digital collections requests 471,403 E-books 149,815 Reserves** 327,267 Total Uses     7,136,487 * Includes use of NC LIVE full-text content ** Includes textbook, print, and e-reserves usage
    21. 22. Demand-Driven - Content at Point of Need <ul><li>Expansive view of available content </li></ul><ul><li>PDA </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Scope, invest, trigger points, and integrate </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Integrated electronic profiling and selection </li></ul><ul><li>Packages of online content – affordability (?) </li></ul><ul><li>Short-term loans </li></ul><ul><li>Changing ILL and article delivery </li></ul><ul><li>To users in the mode they want to consume content </li></ul><ul><li>Move money into new areas – less speculative buying and more to demand-driven </li></ul>
    22. 23. Collaborative Imperative <ul><li>Digital curation </li></ul><ul><li>Digital collections </li></ul><ul><li>Mega-consortia and collective bargaining </li></ul><ul><li>Sense-making </li></ul>
    23. 24. Challenges <ul><li>Have ability to be more precise, more used, and more relevant than ever – need to make the necessary changes </li></ul><ul><li>CAVE people </li></ul><ul><li>Data and user-driven approaches can punish niche areas, disciplinary variation, and resources without data </li></ul>
    24. 25. Challenges, cont. <ul><li>Contradiction of personal apps/devices and open resources </li></ul><ul><li>Apps are a risk – silo(ing) networked, web environment </li></ul><ul><li>Open resources impact ability to control and command discovery environments, content delivery, and data analysis </li></ul>