March Economic Update

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March Economic Update

  1. 2. Dr. M. Ray Perryman
  2. 3. History
  3. 4. The Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) including Killeen-Temple-Fort Hood <ul><li>Ranks #5 among all MSAs in Texas in economic strength for four consecutive years(Policom.com) </li></ul><ul><li>14 th fastest growing MSA in the Nation. (US Census Bureau) </li></ul><ul><li>Ranks #1 in affordable housing (Coldwell Banker Home Price Index, 9/26/2007) </li></ul><ul><li>Ranks No. 1 in renter livability (apartmentratings.com) </li></ul>
  4. 5. Current Indicators
  5. 6. Population Trends Source: Texas State Data Center 9.70% 59,796 54,514 Temple 40.20% 3,015 2,150 Nolanville 18.30% 8,031 6,786 Lampasas 30.00% 112,998 86,911 Killeen 45.40% 25,160 17,308 Harker Heights 4.10% 16,223 15,591 Gatesville 9.40% 32,365 29,592 Copperas Cove 15.90% 16,953 14,623 Belton Percent Change 2000-2008 Jan. 2008 Estimate 2000 Base
  6. 7. Population Trends Source: Texas State Data Center 15.60% 24,105,417 20,851,820 Texas 13.50% 375,556 330,714 Region/MSA 18.60% 21,062 17,762 Lampasas County 2.40% 76,757 74,978 Coryell County 16.70% 277,743 237,974 Bell County Percent Change 2000-2008 Jan. 2008 Estimate 2000 Base
  7. 8. Unemployment Trends Source: Texas State Data Center +3.1 5.4 8.5 United States +2.1 4.7 6.8 State of Texas +1.5 5.0 6.5 Killeen-Temple-Fort Hood MSA Difference Jan-08 Jan-09
  8. 9. Housing <ul><li>Months of Inventory…………………………..10 </li></ul><ul><li>January 2009 Home Sales…………………..136 </li></ul><ul><li>February 2009 Home Sales……........147 (+8%) </li></ul><ul><li>Typical Monthly Volume………………..…….200 </li></ul><ul><li>Source: Jose Segarra </li></ul>
  9. 10. Housing -15.0% 2008 US Avg Source: Jose Segarra +2.94% 2008 Fort Hood Region Avg $125,087 (+8%) February 2009 Avg Price $114,000 January 2009 Avg Price
  10. 11. Killeen Building Permits
  11. 12. Killeen Retail Sales Retail Sales increase from $1.3 billion in 2000 to $2.3 Billion in 2007
  12. 13. Sales Tax Revenues Source: Texas Comptroller of Public Accounts 1.50% $1,030,834,183 $1,046,328,600 Texas/1133 Cities -4.64% $4,088,816 $3,898,981 Temple -15.18% $34,633 $29,375 Nolanville 4.97% $310,415 $325,838 Lampasas -11.73% $5,094,857 $4,497,345 Killeen 41.13% $838,580 $1,183,491 Harker Heights -0.11% $391,467 $391,035 Gatesville -0.97% $884,205 $875,659 Copperas Cove 2.89% $787,989 $810,777 Belton % Change 2008 Payments 2009 Payments
  13. 14. Sales Tax Revenue – February 2009 Metroplex -10.91% Dallas I35 Corridor -4.61% San Antonio -13.82% Austin -23.16% Round Rock -27.3% Georgetown -2.6% State of Texas Gulf Coast +58.04% Beaumont +15.49% Galveston Source: Comptroller of Public Accounts +8.69% Sugarland +4.5% Houston
  14. 15. Going Forward
  15. 16. Community Strengths <ul><li>Fort Hood - $10.9 billion annual economic impact. </li></ul><ul><li>Growing population. </li></ul><ul><li>Location. </li></ul><ul><li>Positive business climate. </li></ul><ul><li>Talent, especially the pool of skilled veterans separating from the Army at Fort Hood. </li></ul><ul><li>Strong defense contracting community. </li></ul>
  16. 17. Community Strengths Continued <ul><li>Racial/ethnic diversity and integration. </li></ul><ul><li>Growing and affordable housing stock. </li></ul><ul><li>Large inventory of service, retail and dining establishments. </li></ul><ul><li>Central Texas Workforce Center. </li></ul><ul><li>Killeen-Fort Hood Regional Airport. </li></ul><ul><li>New convention center complex. </li></ul><ul><li>Educational institutions. </li></ul>
  17. 18. Growth Opportunities <ul><li>Targeted Industrial Clusters </li></ul><ul><li>Retail Sales </li></ul><ul><li>Fort Hood Stabilization, Growth and Diversity </li></ul><ul><li>Texas A&M University – Central Texas </li></ul><ul><li>New Economy </li></ul>
  18. 19. Targeted Industrial Clusters <ul><li>Defense </li></ul><ul><li>Healthcare and Bioscience </li></ul><ul><li>Information Technology </li></ul><ul><li>Business Services </li></ul><ul><li>Transportation and Logistics </li></ul>
  19. 20. Retail Sales
  20. 21. 2007 Retail Gap Analysis
  21. 22. 2007 Retail Gap Analysis $19,202 Trade Area Per Capita Income $54,164 Trade Area Household Income 226,930 Trade Area Population
  22. 23. 2007 Retail Gap Analysis <ul><li>52 Retail Sectors </li></ul><ul><li>4 with Sales Surpluses </li></ul><ul><li>- Mobile Home Sales </li></ul><ul><li>- Motorcycle Dealers </li></ul><ul><li>- Hobby, Toy and Game Shops </li></ul><ul><li>- Misc. Retail Sales </li></ul>
  23. 24. 2007 Retail Gap Analysis $1,120,572,000 (47%) Leakage $1,282,000,000 (53%) Estimated Sales $2,402,573,000 Potential Sales
  24. 25. Fort Hood Stabilization, Growth, and Diversification <ul><li>Economic Impact of the Volunteer Army </li></ul><ul><li>Lilly Pad / Shock Absorber Effect </li></ul><ul><li>Medical Center </li></ul><ul><li>Second Runway </li></ul>
  25. 26. Texas A&M University – Central Texas Academic Economic Impact 933 $54.8 million 3,500 1926 $106.5 million 6,500 677 $37.2 million 2,500 258 $14.2 million 1,000 Employment Annual Impact Students
  26. 27. Texas A&M University – Central Texas Research and Development Impact <ul><li>Technology Research Center </li></ul><ul><li>Emerging Technologies </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Healthcare </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Defense </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Commercialization </li></ul>
  27. 28. New Economy
  28. 29. New Economy <ul><li>Manufacturing/Goods to Service/Knowledge </li></ul>
  29. 30. New Economy <ul><li>Place – Talent – Innovation are Linked </li></ul>
  30. 31. New Economy <ul><li>Military Communities Have access to Talent </li></ul>
  31. 32. New Economy <ul><li>Talent will populate, attract and create companies </li></ul>
  32. 33. New Economy <ul><li>Talent is Mobile </li></ul>
  33. 34. New Economy <ul><li>Talent will reside where it can live first, work second </li></ul>
  34. 35. New Economy <ul><li>Quality of Place is important </li></ul>
  35. 36. New Economy: Summary <ul><li>Manufacturing/Goods to Service/Knowledge </li></ul><ul><li>Place-Talent-Innovation are Linked </li></ul><ul><li>Military Communities have access to talent </li></ul><ul><li>Talent will populate, attract and create companies </li></ul><ul><li>Talent is mobile </li></ul><ul><li>Talent will reside where it can live first, work second </li></ul><ul><li>Quality of Place is important </li></ul>
  36. 37. Place Design
  37. 38. Characteristics of Place Design <ul><li>Authenticity </li></ul><ul><li>Access to technology </li></ul><ul><li>Horizontal career paths </li></ul><ul><li>Immigration </li></ul><ul><li>Low barriers to entry </li></ul><ul><li>Diversity </li></ul><ul><li>Tolerance </li></ul><ul><li>Lifestyle opportunities </li></ul>

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