An Agent-Based Approach to Pedestrian and Group Dynamics: Experimental and Real World Scenarios

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Presentation held in the context of the Agents in Traffic and Transportation 2012 workshop held in the context of the AAMAS Conference - Valencia (ES) - June 5, 2012

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An Agent-Based Approach to Pedestrian and Group Dynamics: Experimental and Real World Scenarios

  1. 1. An Agent-Based Approach to Pedestrian and Group Dynamics: Experimental and Real World Scenarios Giuseppe Vizzari1,2,3 , Lorenza Manenti1,3, Kazumichi Ohtsuka4 and Kenichiro Shimura4 1Complex Systems and Artificial Intelligence Research Center (CSAI) University of Milano-Bicocca, Italy 2 JSPSFellow - Research Center on Advanced Science and Technology, The University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan 3 Crystals Project, Center of Research Excellence in Hajj and Omrah (Hajjcore) Umm Al-Qura University, Makkah, Saudi Arabia 4 Research Center for Advanced Science & Technology, The University of Tokyo, JapanTuesday, August 28, 12
  2. 2. Outline • Pedestrian and crowd simulation, a brief introduction • Impact of groups in pedestrian and crowd dynamics • According to the literature • Observations at the Hajj • A model considering the presence of groups • The model in a simple counterflow scenario • The model in a real-world scenario • Conclusions and discussionATT2012 @ AAMAS 2012 - Valencia (ES) - June 5, 2012Tuesday, August 28, 12
  3. 3. Outline • Pedestrian and crowd simulation, a brief introduction • Impact of groups in pedestrian and crowd dynamics • According to the literature • Observations at the Hajj • A model considering the presence of groups • The model in a simple counterflow scenario • The model in a real-world scenario • Conclusions and discussionATT2012 @ AAMAS 2012 - Valencia (ES) - June 5, 2012Tuesday, August 28, 12
  4. 4. Motivations of crowd modeling and simulation • Designer’s decision support • Normal and evacuation situations • Positioning of signs • Malls and shopping centers • Support the study of pedestrian behaviour • Envisioning of different behavioural models in realistic environments • Possibility to perform ‘in-machina’ experiments • Support crowd management by means of the elaboration of what-if scenarios • Decision makers might not be experts in crowds • Need of effective ways to visualize simulations and analyses of resultsATT2012 @ AAMAS 2012 - Valencia (ES) - June 5, 2012Tuesday, August 28, 12
  5. 5. Crowds of pedestrians as complex systems • Overall system behaviour depends on individuals’ decisions and actions… • … that are generally influenced by a large number of factors • … intertwined in an often unpredictable way • Mixed and conflicting mechanisms • Competition for the shared space… • … but also cooperation (non written social norms) to prevent stall situations • Imitation... • ... but also natural tendency to stay at a distance (proxemics) • Emergent phenomena • …ATT2012 @ AAMAS 2012 - Valencia (ES) - June 5, 2012Tuesday, August 28, 12
  6. 6. Types of approaches to pedestrian and crowd modeling • Particle based • Social force model and derivatives • Continuous space and time • Cellular Automata • Ad-hoc rules (e.g. Blue & Adler, intersections) or floor field approach (e.g. Nishinari, Schadschneider, ...) • Discrete in time and space • Multi-Agent Systems • Several approaches from computer graphics (e.g. Thalmann, Terzopoulos, Donikian, Manocha), some approaches are extensions of CA, ... • Behavioural models generally more complex that in CA approachesATT2012 @ AAMAS 2012 - Valencia (ES) - June 5, 2012Tuesday, August 28, 12
  7. 7. Outline • Pedestrian and crowd simulation, a brief introduction • Impact of groups in pedestrian and crowd dynamics • According to the literature • Observations at the Hajj • A model considering the presence of groups • The model in a simple counterflow scenario • The model in a real-world scenario • Conclusions and discussionATT2012 @ AAMAS 2012 - Valencia (ES) - June 5, 2012Tuesday, August 28, 12
  8. 8. Impact of groups in pedestrian and crowd dynamics • Current approaches generally consider every pedestrian as a individual with no relationships • Considering only his/her own goals • Considering other pedestrians as moving obstacles • Nonetheless, in several situations pedestrians are bound by relationships influencing their movement • Generally speaking, a crowd is made up of groups of pedestrians... • What do we miss by neglecting this aspect of pedestrian behaviour?ATT2012 @ AAMAS 2012 - Valencia (ES) - June 5, 2012Tuesday, August 28, 12
  9. 9. Groups in the literature - Observations • At least two studies report observations about groups • Willis A, Gjersoe N, Havard C, Kerridge J, Kukla R, 2004, "Human movement behaviour in urban spaces: implications for the design and modelling of effective pedestrian environments" Environment and Planning B: Planning and Design 31(6) 805 – 828 • Michael Schultz, Christian Schulz, and Hartmut Fricke. “Passenger Dynamics at Airport Terminal Environment”, Pedestrian and Evacuation Dynamics 2008, Springer-Verlag, 2010 • Observations carried out in low density conditions • Groups of small size were most frequently observedATT2012 @ AAMAS 2012 - Valencia (ES) - June 5, 2012Tuesday, August 28, 12
  10. 10. Groups in the literature - Modeling and Simulation • Extensions to the social force model • Moussaïd, Helbing, Theraulaz et al. 2010 • Small groups (2,3,4), unstructured • Low to moderate densities • Validation based on actual observations • Xu and Duh, 2010 • Only couples (groups of 2 pedestrians) • Low to moderate densities • Shallow validation based on data from the literature (Daamen, 2004) • CA models • Sarmady, Haron, Zawawi Hj, 2009 • Leaders and followers • Groups of 2 to 6 members experimented • Not validated • Agent-based models • Qiu and Hu 2010 • Structured groups (intra and inter group matrices) • Large groups experimented (60 pedestrians) • Not validated • Group members tend to stay close to other group members (additional behavioural component)ATT2012 @ AAMAS 2012 - Valencia (ES) - June 5, 2012Tuesday, August 28, 12
  11. 11. The Hajj in Brief • Annual pilgrimage to Makkah, Saudi Arabia • Fifth pillar of Islam, a religious duty that must be carried out at least once in their lifetime by every able-bodied Muslim who can afford to do so • Over 2,5 millions of people coming from over 150 countries • A precise and articulated system of rituals implying the mass movement of pilgrims over several sites that in some cases are about 20 km distantATT2012 @ AAMAS 2012 - Valencia (ES) - June 5, 2012Tuesday, August 28, 12
  12. 12. The Mashaer Line • Five proposed rail lines connecting the holy sites with one another and with Makkah • The southern rail includes 9 stations: 3 in Mina, 3 in Muzdalifah and 3 in Arafat, to replace 35,000 cars and buses and access the Haram and Makkah Central Area • Future lines to the Holy Haram • Extend the southern rail line to Jeddah Airport, with an elevated alignment above the Jeddah Expressway over an 80 Km lengthATT2012 @ AAMAS 2012 - Valencia (ES) - June 5, 2012Tuesday, August 28, 12
  13. 13. Observations at the Hajj - Groups as a crowd management organizational instrument • Pilgrims are subdivided into groups of 250 persons following a leader in their movement from the nearby tents area to the platform • The waiting boxes act as waiting areas hosting groups waiting to use ramps or elevators • The platform can safely host even more than 3000 pilgrims (the capacity of a train), but the process is aimed at avoiding overcrowding of the platformTuesday, August 28, 12
  14. 14. Observations at the Hajj - Considerations • Groups are used as an organizational instrument to manage crowd • Group arrival is planned, scheduled • Leaders decide when and where to move, collaborating with station officers • Their size is relatively large, their cohesion is not extreme... • ... but inside them smaller sub- groups can be identified and they can be much more compact • Groups have different intermediate movement targets, although the same final goalATT2012 @ AAMAS 2012 - Valencia (ES) - June 5, 2012Tuesday, August 28, 12
  15. 15. Group influence in general - Considerations • The presence of groups is pervasive in many events involving large crowds • Groups are simply out there... • ... it’s not a matter of deciding if they’re ‘good’ or ‘bad’ for the pedestrian flow • ... it’s a matter of understanding their impact, in different relevant conditions • The presence of groups should be carefully considered: • Design choices might make it difficult for a group to preserve its cohesion, which is particularly significant in certain situations (e.g. kids, elderly, mobility impaired persons)... • ... and this would cause stress in group members and congestions, delays in the whole systemATT2012 @ AAMAS 2012 - Valencia (ES) - June 5, 2012Tuesday, August 28, 12
  16. 16. Outline • Pedestrian and crowd simulation, a brief introduction • Impact of groups in pedestrian and crowd dynamics • According to the literature • Observations at the Hajj • A model considering the presence of groups • The model in a simple counterflow scenario • The model in a real-world scenario • Conclusions and discussionATT2012 @ AAMAS 2012 - Valencia (ES) - June 5, 2012Tuesday, August 28, 12
  17. 17. A model considering the presence of groups • Based on the floor-field CA approach, with significant difference on movement choice • Employing traditional factors for movement destination choice • Goal orientation • Presence of obstacles • Presence of other pedestrians Considered factors: (basic proxemics) + cell is closer to pedestrians goal + presence of group members nearby • We added a simple notion of group - presence of other pedestrians nearby • A simple set of pedestrians - presence of obstacles nearby + random factor • We added a factor to the movement destination choice-making activity Movement blocking factors: - cell is occupied by another pedestrian • The presence of a group member - cell is occupied by an obstacle nearby is considered positively • Notice that this factor alone does not assure that a group does not split!ATT2012 @ AAMAS 2012 - Valencia (ES) - June 5, 2012Tuesday, August 28, 12
  18. 18. Outline • Pedestrian and crowd simulation, a brief introduction • Impact of groups in pedestrian and crowd dynamics • According to the literature • Observations at the Hajj • A model considering the presence of groups • The model in a simple counterflow scenario • The model in a real-world scenario • Conclusions and discussionATT2012 @ AAMAS 2012 - Valencia (ES) - June 5, 2012Tuesday, August 28, 12
  19. 19. The model in a simple counterflow scenarioATT2012 @ AAMAS 2012 - Valencia (ES) - June 5, 2012Tuesday, August 28, 12
  20. 20. The model in a simple counterflow scenario • We can interpret the results making considering two phenomena 1. Wide groups offer a large profile to the counter flow, so they have a higher probability of facing conflicts 2. Once a group has formed a line, instead, the leader has the same conflict probability of an individual, but the follower has often an advantage • In low density situations phenomenon (1) prevails, leading to a lower average combined flow for groups of pedestrians whose size is larger than 2 • Pairs in fact can easily form a line, turning phenomenon (1) to (2) • In high density situations the probability of facing conflicts is very high also for individuals, so phenomenon (2) prevails, leading to higher average combined flow for even large groups (size 5)ATT2012 @ AAMAS 2012 - Valencia (ES) - June 5, 2012Tuesday, August 28, 12
  21. 21. Additional results - group cohesion • The simple cohesion mechanism can generate different phenomenologies • Experiments with an extension of the previous model (having a more complex perception model for pedestrians) can lead to different situations • Groups remain compact • Groups split but reunites • Groups split and cannot reunite • A metric of group dispersion was defined and employed to quantify this phenomenonATT2012 @ AAMAS 2012 - Valencia (ES) - June 5, 2012Tuesday, August 28, 12
  22. 22. Additional results - group cohesion • The simple cohesion mechanism can generate different phenomenologies • Experiments with an extension of the previous model (having a more complex perception model for pedestrians) can lead to different situations • Groups remain compact • Groups split but reunites • Groups split and cannot reunite • A metric of group dispersion was defined and employed to quantify this phenomenonATT2012 @ AAMAS 2012 - Valencia (ES) - June 5, 2012Tuesday, August 28, 12
  23. 23. Outline • Pedestrian and crowd simulation, a brief introduction • Impact of groups in pedestrian and crowd dynamics • According to the literature • Observations at the Hajj • A model considering the presence of groups • The model in a simple counterflow scenario • The model in a real-world scenario • Conclusions and discussionATT2012 @ AAMAS 2012 - Valencia (ES) - June 5, 2012Tuesday, August 28, 12
  24. 24. Preliminary results in the Hajj case study • Compared three scenarios (columns), characterized by: • One group accessing the station from one WB • Two groups simultaneously accessing the station from two WBs • Three groups simultaneously accessing the station from two WBs and from the tents area • The diagrams respectively show different data for cells • Blocks, situations in which a pedestrian wanted to move but couldn’t (1st row) • Movements of a pedestrian from the cell (2nd row) • Space utilization (sum of the above) (3rd row)ATT2012 @ AAMAS 2012 - Valencia (ES) - June 5, 2012Tuesday, August 28, 12
  25. 25. Outline • Pedestrian and crowd simulation, a brief introduction • Impact of groups in pedestrian and crowd dynamics • According to the literature • Observations at the Hajj • A model considering the presence of groups • The model in a simple counterflow scenario • The model in a real-world scenario • Conclusions and discussionATT2012 @ AAMAS 2012 - Valencia (ES) - June 5, 2012Tuesday, August 28, 12
  26. 26. Conclusions and discussion • Groups are relevant and significant • Models for the simulation of crowds of pedestrians focused on collective events should consider them • Results of first simulations, in tune with experiments carried out last year in Tokyo, suggest that the impact of groups is not so simple to evaluate • More observations, experiments and simulations are necessary to improve our understanding of the phenomenon • More tight collaboration between researchers working on synthesis and analysis of crowds (e.g. computer vision) is promising and possibly beneficial for bothATT2012 @ AAMAS 2012 - Valencia (ES) - June 5, 2012Tuesday, August 28, 12
  27. 27. ありがとうございます。 Giuseppe VizzariTuesday, August 28, 12

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