Economic development is changing rapidly and dramatically. It's reshaping our work, how we work with our customers, and even who our customers are. If it feels like you're operating under new rules, it's because you are - and you might not even know what they are. Learn 5 ways our profession is changing and how you can come out on top. For more information visit http://www.gisplanning.com

1. 5
Trends
(You
Can’t
Ignore)
Shaping
Economic
Development’s
Future
Anatalio
Ubalde
CEO
&
Co-­‐Founder

2. Economic
Development
Under
AEack

3. 5
BIG
Disruptors
in
Economic
Development

4. Trend
1:
Big
Data

5. “Trust,
but
verify.”
-­‐
Ronald
Reagan

7. We
resist
change
when
it’s
true
• 1840.
Austrian
Dr.
Semmelwis
uses
data
to
calculate
mortality
rates
during
childbirth
could
be
reduced
from
12%
to
2%
if
doctors/nurses
washed
their
hands
before
seeing
paJents.
Leads
to
germ
theory
of
disease.
• He
was
ridiculed
by
other
physicians.
They
rejected
they
were
causing
deaths.
Washing
hands
was
a
waste
of
their
valuable
Jme.

8. We
sJll
don’t
make
change
• 2004.
Dr.
Don
Berwick
uses
research
to
show
a
90%
reducJon
in
infecJons
from
central-­‐line
chest
catheters
from
systemic
hand
washing.
• This
change
=
25,000
lives
saved
per
year.

9. Which
of
these
ways
of
dying
concerns
you
more
and
do
you
spend
more
Pme
focused
on?
Terrorism
Heart
disease
Not
even
on
the
list
#1
cause
of
death
in
USA
We
suffer
from
cogniJve
failings
&
biases
We
overesJmate
“newsworthy”
deaths
and
underesJmate
common
causes
of
death.

11. Big
Data
in
Economic
Development
Example
1:
Whi^aker
Associates
PredicJve
AnalyJcs

12. (C)
Whi^aker
Associates,
Inc.
2012
12

13. (C)
Whi^aker
Associates,
Inc.
2012
13

14. PredicJng
Corporate
Behavior
• Key
Drivers
– Change
• Leadership
• Ownership
• Product/Service
• Client
Preference
– Metrics
• Sales
• Employment
(C)
Whi^aker
Associates,
Inc.
2012
14

15. PredicJve
AnalyJcs
• StaJsJcs
• CorrelaJon
• RelaJonships
• Models
• Pa^ern
recogniJon
• Algorithms
For
the
mathemaJcians,
they
are
using
mulJple
variant
regression,
gradient
decent,
and
matrix
algebra
to
generate
the
predicJve
analyJc
algorithm
(C)
Whi^aker
Associates,
Inc.
2012
15

16. PredicJve
AnalyJcs
• What
is
it
that
you
would
benefit
from
knowing
ahead
of
Jme?
• Is
there
data
that
is
plausibly
correlated
to
that
which
you
wish
to
predict?
(C)
Whi^aker
Associates,
Inc.
2012
16

17. Do
you
really
understand
your
network
of
relaJonships?
The
hidden
value
isn’t
the
network
you
know.
It’s
the
network
they
know.

20. Big
Data
in
Economic
Development
Example
2:
ZoomProspector
Enterprise

21. 1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011

22. User-­‐defined
search
for
sites
and
property
based
on
locaJon,
use
&
size
To
see
this
live
on
the
Internet
go
to
www.gisplanning.com

23. Matching
properJes
are
shown
in
a
comparison
list
&
on
the
map

24. Drill
down
into
individual
property
report
to
see
the
details

25. View
the
area
with
Google
Street
View

27. CompeJJon
&
Synergies
IdenJfy
Industry
Clusters

28. Pick
any
category,
like
ConstrucJon

29. And
only
ConstrucJon
businesses
are
displayed

30. Local
GIS
Layers

31. Drive
Times
Legend

32. Big
Data
in
Economic
Development
Example
3:
Economic
Gardening

33. Economic
Gardening
• Database
intensive
• Market
research
• GIS
• Customer
analysis
• Demographics
• Gap
analysis
• Supply
chain

34. Economic
Gardening
• Great
tool
to
support
local
businesses
and
entrepreneurs.
• Uses
data
to
inform
acJon
and
reveal
what
wasn’t
obvious.
• Gardening
has
challenges
with
scaling
to
serve
many
businesses
• Requires
experJse
that
doesn’t
exist
in
many
local
EDOs

35. Big
Data
in
Economic
Development
Example
4:
SizeUp

36. Enter
your
industry
and
your
city

37. Choose
from
SizeUp’s
3
core
features.

38. Input
informaJon
you
already
know
about
your
business

39. View
consideraJons
for
how
to
interpret
the
data
Chart
how
you
compare
to
your
industry
locally,
regionally,
and
naJonally
Find
resources
relevant
to
the
report
you
are
viewing
Map
the
performance
of
surrounding
areas

40. See
trends
in
business
starts
over
Jme
in
your
industry

41. Quickly
summarize
how
you
“size
up”
against
the
rest
of
your
industry

43. View
your
compeJtors
on
a
map

44. Locate
the
businesses
you
buy
from

45. IdenJfy
areas
where
you
can
be
close
to
suppliers
and
with
limited
compeJJon

47. See
the
best
zipcodes
in
which
to
adverJse
based
on
industry
performance
in
your
region

48. Switch
to
find
the
most
underserved
markets
in
your
area

49. Filter
your
list
of
places
using
many
demographic
and
industry
criteria

50. Trend
2:
Talent
AEracPon

51. Which
came
first,
the
people
or
the
businesses?

52. Michael
Porter
on
industries:
Traded
Industry
Local
Industry

53. What
they
measured
• Economic
development
– Economic
output
per
person
(producJvity)
– Wages
– InnovaJon
(patents)
• Talent
– EducaJonal
a^ainment
– Knowledge
workers
• Industry
(Porter)
– Local
industries
– Traded
industries
Source:
h^p://research.marJnprosperity.org/papers/Talent-­‐vs-­‐Trade-­‐forma^ed.pdf

54. What
they
Discovered:
The
variaJon
in
talent
largely
explains
the
variaJons
in
regional
economic
performance
Talent
Industry
Source:
h^p://research.marJnprosperity.org/papers/Talent-­‐vs-­‐Trade-­‐forma^ed.pdf
and
h^p://www.theatlanJcciJes.com/jobs-­‐and-­‐economy/2012/09/talent-­‐beats-­‐trade-­‐economic-­‐development/3083/

56. 14
Million
3.2
Million
$100
Billion
-­‐1%
Source:
CNBC

57. Talent
Rich
Economic
Development
TradiJonal
COMMUNITIES
COMMUNITIES
COMPANIES
COMPANIES

59. Choosing
place
first
and
job
second

60. This
has
impacts
on
rural
communiJes

61. Where
will
the
talent
to
grow
the
US
economy
come
from?

62. Source:
h^p://www.bos.frb.org/economic/conf/conf46/conf46e1.pdf

63. Where
will
the
talent
to
grow
the
USA
come
from?
OpPon
Popularity
Reality
Next
generaJon
Popular
Slow,
can’t
fill
senior/
expert
posiJons
Retrain
current
workers
Popular
LimitaJons
&
slow
Outsource
jobs
Unpopular
Market
already
doing
this
ImmigraJon
Unpopular
Market
already
doing
this
Robots
Could
go
either
way
Doesn’t
create
jobs
Why
are
we
sending
USA-­‐trained
Ph.D.s
to
compete
with
the
USA?

64. Trend
3:
Small
Business
&
Entrepreneurs

65. Entrepreneurs
are
a
top
priority

66. Local
conomy
US
EEconomy
Big
Small
Business
Business
50%
50%
60%

67. In
your
local
economy
Civic
Economics
Study
InsPtute
for
Local
Self
Reliance
Total
Impact
Secondary
Spending
$68
$45
$43
$14
Local
Independent
Chain
CompePtor
Local
Independent
Big
Box
Chain
Read
about
both
studies
at
h^p://bit.ly/tTiv5s

68. SMB’s
Create
Most
New
Jobs
Over
recent
10
years
small
business
created
93%
of
all
net
new
jobs.
Big
Businesses,
7%
Small
&
Medium-­‐
sized
Businesses
(SMB),
93%
Source:
U.S.
Small
Business
Authority
1996
-­‐
2006
-­‐
h^p://www.sba.gov/advo/research/dyn_b_d8906.pdf

69. SMB’s
Create
Most
New
Jobs
8,000,000
6,922,576
Created
100%
of
net
7,000,000
new
jobs
over
6,000,000
last
5
years
5,000,000
4,000,000
Last
recession
(2001)
3,000,000
– Big
Businesses:
4
years
of
job
losses
2,000,000
– Small
Businesses:
1,000,000
1
year
of
job
losses
– Smallest
Businesses:
0
Small
and
Medium
Businesses
Large
Businesses
0
years
of
job
losses
-­‐1,000,000
-­‐2,000,000
-­‐2,071,779
-­‐3,000,000
Source:
U.S.
Small
Business
Authority
2001
-­‐
2006
-­‐
h^p://www.sba.gov/advo/research/dyn_b_d8906.pdf

70. 12,000,000
Total
Job
CreaPon
10,000,000
8,000,000
Small
Businesses
6,000,000
Big
Businesses
4,000,000
2,000,000
0
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
4,000,000
3,000,000
Net
Job
CreaPon
2,000,000
1,000,000
0
Small
Businesses
Big
Businesses
-­‐1,000,000
-­‐2,000,000
-­‐3,000,000
-­‐4,000,000
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
Source:
Census
Business
Dynamics
StaJsJcs

71. IncenPves
Big
Business
Small
Business
Threaten
to
leave
Rarely
get
any
incenJves
More
money
for
your
community,
residents,
local
businesses

73. Trend
4:
Site
SelecPon
Has
Changed

74. Site
Selectors
&
EDOs
have
different
targets

75. Most
targeted
industries
of
EDOs
% Targeted by
Economic
Industries Site Selectors
Developers
Manufacturing – advanced* 24.2% 43.7%
Manufacturing - alternative energy/renewable energy* 16.9% 40.6%
Manufacturing – traditional 36.3% 35.6%
Distribution/wholesale trade 35.5% 30.2%
Information technology/high-technology 27.4% 29.1%
Aerospace/aviation* 11.3% 26.9%
Healthcare 12.1% 25.0%
Biotechnology 17.7% 23.7%
Retail 15.3% 21.4%
Manufacturing – advanced 21.8% 20.9%
*denotes at least a 10% difference between the targeting of the industry by EDOs and Site Selectors.
Source:
Economic
Development
MarkeJng
by
Ubalde
&
Simundza
©
2012

76. Industries
most
served
by
site
selectors
% Targeted by
Economic
Industries Site Selectors
Developers
Corporate headquarters* 44.4% 18.3%
Manufacturing - traditional 36.3% 35.6%
Distribution/wholesale trade 35.5% 30.2%
Call centers* 33.1% 9.1%
Finance/insurance* 31.5% 9.3%
Business services* 29.8% 17.2%
Information technology/high-tech 27.4% 29.1%
Manufacturing - advanced 24.2% 43.7%
Research and development 22.6% 12.3%
Retail 21.8% 20.9%
*denotes at least a 10% difference between the targeting of the industry by EDOs and Site Selectors.
Source:
Economic
Development
MarkeJng
by
Ubalde
&
Simundza
©
2012

77. How
do
site
selectors
gather
informaJon
about
communiJes?
Brokers
65.2%
Websites
of
economic
development
organizaJons
62.5%
Third-­‐party
data
sources
51.8%
Peers
and
colleagues
46.4%
Proprietary
database
41.1%
InformaJon
the
organizaJon
has
sent
you
in
the
past
27.7%
PublicaJons/media
26.8%
Businesses
in
their
community/service
area
18.8%
Other
(please
specify)
5.4%
Source:
Economic
Development
MarkeJng
by
Ubalde
&
Simundza
©
2012

78. How
do
site
selectors
gather
informaJon
about
communiJes?
Corporate
real
estate
professional
Site
selecJon
consultant
Brokers
26%
8%
Websites
of
economic
development
organizaJons
18%
20%
Peers
and
colleagues
15%
10%
Third-­‐party
data
sources
11%
19%
Proprietary
database
9%
17%
PublicaJons/media
7%
9%
InformaJon
the
organizaJon
has
sent
you
in
the
past
7%
8%
Businesses
in
their
community/service
area
5%
6%
Source:
Economic
Development
MarkeJng
by
Ubalde
&
Simundza
©
2012

79. What
sites
selectors
&
CRE
pros
value
1. Where
they
get
the
most
valuable
informaJon
&
communicaJon
2. What
type
of
informaJon
they
want

80. Site
selectors
rate
websites
#1…
ahead
of
themselves!
MarkePng
Strategy
RaPng
EffecPve
Website
76%
Site
SelecJon
Consultants
and
FamiliarizaJon
Tours
71%
Out-­‐of-­‐Town
MeeJngs
with
Businesses
54%
Special
Events
47%
Targeted
Lead
Development
Databases
46%
Public
RelaJons
37%
Trade
Shows
and
Conferences
37%
E-­‐Mail
31%
Online
Videos
(YouTube,
etc.)
16%
Online
AdverJsing
16%
Direct
Mail
15%
Social
Media
14%
Brochures
13%
Print
AdverJsing
10%
Company
Blog
9%
Slogans,
Logo
and
Graphic
IdenJty
9%
Videos
(VHS,
DVD,
etc)
8%
TelemarkeJng
5%
TV/Radio
AdverJsing
5%
Source:
Economic
Development
MarkeJng
by
Ubalde
&
Simundza
©
2012

81. When
would
you
first
contact
an
EDO?
100%
(contact
staff
vs.
visit
website)
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
Source:
Economic
Development
MarkeJng
by
Ubalde
&
Simundza
©
2012
30%
20%
When
beginning
an
When
developing
a
During
evaluaPon/ Aher
narrowing
During
evaluaPon/ To
confirm
Only
if
the
company
Never
iniPal
site
selecPon
long-­‐list
of
possible
analysis
of
a
long-­‐list
opPons
to
a
short-­‐list
analysis
of
a
short-­‐ informaPon
I
have
or
client
specifically
search
for
possible
areas
in
which
to
of
locaPons
of
a
few
finalists
list
of
locaPons
already
gathered
asked
me
to
contact
locaPons
locate
based
on
an
EDO.
restricPve-­‐criteria
Contact
an
EDO
Visit
an
EDO's
website

82. When
would
you
first
contact
an
economic
development
organizaJon?
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
Source:
Economic
Development
MarkeJng
by
Ubalde
&
Simundza
©
2012
40%
30%
20%
When
beginning
an
When
developing
a
During
evaluaPon/ Aher
narrowing
During
evaluaPon/ To
confirm
Only
if
the
company
Never
iniPal
site
selecPon
long-­‐list
of
possible
analysis
of
a
long-­‐list
opPons
to
a
short-­‐list
analysis
of
a
short-­‐ informaPon
I
have
or
client
specifically
search
for
possible
areas
in
which
to
of
locaPons
of
a
few
finalists
list
of
locaPons
already
gathered
asked
me
to
contact
locaPons
locate
based
on
an
EDO.
restricPve-­‐criteria
Contact
EDO
'11
Contact
EDO
'07

83. 750,000
businesses
need
NEW
faciliJes
each
year

84. How
can
22
companies
do
750,000
deals?
• They
can’t.
• EDOs
have
missed
that
most
businesses
do
their
own
research
and
that
intermediaries
aren’t
the
true
gatekeepers
they
used
to
be
(if
they
ever
were).

85. There
are
no
gatekeepers

86. How
can
22
companies
do
750,000
deals?
• They
can’t.
• We’ve
missed
that
most
businesses
do
their
own
research
and
that
intermediaries
aren’t
the
true
gatekeepers
they
used
to
be
(if
they
ever
were).
• There
are
actually
no
gate
keepers.
• They
ways
to
reach
expanding
businesses
have
changed
and
expanded
in
possibility
(We
are
beyond
the
TV-­‐industrial
complex)

87. Trend
5:
Fast
&
ChaoPc
Change

88. Context
We
are
trying
to
prepare
our
communiJes
for
the
future
economy
when
we
can’t
even
anPcipate
what
the
economy
will
look
like
next
week
• Europe
• Housing
• Energy
• ElecJons
• War
• Corporate
Scandal

89. Jobs
Context
The
promise:
• Work
hard
>
do
well
>
go
to
college
>
get
a
good
job.
Work
Go
to
Get
a
Do
Well
Hard
College
Good
Job

90. Jobs
Context
The
reality:
• Widely
known:
Technology
and
globalizaJon
have
reduced
the
number
of
unskilled
jobs.
• Gexng
known:
Technology
and
globalizaJon
are
reducing
the
number
of
skilled
jobs.
– People
used
to
say
“America
should
focus
on
skilled
jobs
and
innovaJon
because
those
won’t
get
outsourced”.
– Marc
Andreessen
“The
spread
of
computers
and
the
Internet
will
put
jobs
in
two
categories,
people
who
tell
computers
what
to
do
and
people
who
are
told
by
computers
what
to
do.”
(Source
USA
Today
9/14/2012,
p.
4F)

91. Jobs
Context
The
result:
• DisrupJon
• Unemployment.
And
this
is
the
only
reality
many
Millennials
know.
Median
Income
&
Middle
Class
There
are
no
guarantees.
• Good
bye
median
income
and
middle
class.

92. The
Economic
Development
SoluPon
to
Problem
Mismatch

93. The
current
system
of
economic
development
was
designed
for
a
different
era
• Industrial/
manufacturing
• Stealing
business
domesJcally
• TV-­‐industrial
complex
• Pre-­‐globalizaJon
• Pre-­‐women
&
minority
execuJves
• Pre-­‐Internet
Most
of
what
is
popular
ED
came
from
the
SE
USA.

94. Trying
to
meet
the
future
By
doing
what
we’ve
done
in
the
past.
This
approach
further
alienates
new
economic
development
professionals
who
don’t
relate
to
our
profession’s
history
within
today’s
context.

95. SoluJon
to
problem
mismatch
Many
brilliant
people
in
economic
development
are
told
they
are
not
brilliant
because
they
are
being
measured
on
an
academic/professional/credenJal
system
that
rewards
tradiJonal
approaches
and
thinking.

97. Conv ersion
Innova DisrupPon
Pon
Outside
Re place
ange
Economic
Ch
Shih
Inside
Development
Best
PracPces
Switch
sloc ate
Di
RevoluPon
Transfor
maPon

99. “Change is not necessary.
Survival is optional.”
- W. Edwards Deming

100. Thank
You.

101. GISplanning.com
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