Economic development is changing rapidly and dramatically. It's reshaping our work, how we work with our customers, and even who our customers are. If it feels like you're operating under new rules, it's because you are - and you might not even know what they are. Learn 5 ways our profession is changing and how you can come out on top. For more information visit http://www.gisplanning.com
7. We
resist
change
when
it’s
true
• 1840.
Austrian
Dr.
Semmelwis
uses
data
to
calculate
mortality
rates
during
childbirth
could
be
reduced
from
12%
to
2%
if
doctors/nurses
washed
their
hands
before
seeing
paJents.
Leads
to
germ
theory
of
disease.
• He
was
ridiculed
by
other
physicians.
They
rejected
they
were
causing
deaths.
Washing
hands
was
a
waste
of
their
valuable
Jme.
8. We
sJll
don’t
make
change
• 2004.
Dr.
Don
Berwick
uses
research
to
show
a
90%
reducJon
in
infecJons
from
central-‐line
chest
catheters
from
systemic
hand
washing.
• This
change
=
25,000
lives
saved
per
year.
9. Which
of
these
ways
of
dying
concerns
you
more
and
do
you
spend
more
Pme
focused
on?
Terrorism
Heart
disease
Not
even
on
the
list
#1
cause
of
death
in
USA
We
suffer
from
cogniJve
failings
&
biases
We
overesJmate
“newsworthy”
deaths
and
underesJmate
common
causes
of
death.
10.
11. Big
Data
in
Economic
Development
Example
1:
Whi^aker
Associates
PredicJve
AnalyJcs
15. PredicJve
AnalyJcs
• StaJsJcs
• CorrelaJon
• RelaJonships
• Models
• Pa^ern
recogniJon
• Algorithms
For
the
mathemaJcians,
they
are
using
mulJple
variant
regression,
gradient
decent,
and
matrix
algebra
to
generate
the
predicJve
analyJc
algorithm
(C)
Whi^aker
Associates,
Inc.
2012
15
16. PredicJve
AnalyJcs
• What
is
it
that
you
would
benefit
from
knowing
ahead
of
Jme?
• Is
there
data
that
is
plausibly
correlated
to
that
which
you
wish
to
predict?
(C)
Whi^aker
Associates,
Inc.
2012
16
17. Do
you
really
understand
your
network
of
relaJonships?
The
hidden
value
isn’t
the
network
you
know.
It’s
the
network
they
know.
18.
19.
20. Big
Data
in
Economic
Development
Example
2:
ZoomProspector
Enterprise
34. Economic
Gardening
• Great
tool
to
support
local
businesses
and
entrepreneurs.
• Uses
data
to
inform
acJon
and
reveal
what
wasn’t
obvious.
• Gardening
has
challenges
with
scaling
to
serve
many
businesses
• Requires
experJse
that
doesn’t
exist
in
many
local
EDOs
35. Big
Data
in
Economic
Development
Example
4:
SizeUp
39. View
consideraJons
for
how
to
interpret
the
data
Chart
how
you
compare
to
your
industry
locally,
regionally,
and
naJonally
Find
resources
relevant
to
the
report
you
are
viewing
Map
the
performance
of
surrounding
areas
40. See
trends
in
business
starts
over
Jme
in
your
industry
53. What
they
measured
• Economic
development
– Economic
output
per
person
(producJvity)
– Wages
– InnovaJon
(patents)
• Talent
– EducaJonal
a^ainment
– Knowledge
workers
• Industry
(Porter)
– Local
industries
– Traded
industries
Source:
h^p://research.marJnprosperity.org/papers/Talent-‐vs-‐Trade-‐forma^ed.pdf
54. What
they
Discovered:
The
variaJon
in
talent
largely
explains
the
variaJons
in
regional
economic
performance
Talent
Industry
Source:
h^p://research.marJnprosperity.org/papers/Talent-‐vs-‐Trade-‐forma^ed.pdf
and
h^p://www.theatlanJcciJes.com/jobs-‐and-‐economy/2012/09/talent-‐beats-‐trade-‐economic-‐development/3083/
63. Where
will
the
talent
to
grow
the
USA
come
from?
OpPon
Popularity
Reality
Next
generaJon
Popular
Slow,
can’t
fill
senior/
expert
posiJons
Retrain
current
workers
Popular
LimitaJons
&
slow
Outsource
jobs
Unpopular
Market
already
doing
this
ImmigraJon
Unpopular
Market
already
doing
this
Robots
Could
go
either
way
Doesn’t
create
jobs
Why
are
we
sending
USA-‐trained
Ph.D.s
to
compete
with
the
USA?
66. Local
conomy
US
EEconomy
Big
Small
Business
Business
50%
50%
60%
67. In
your
local
economy
Civic
Economics
Study
InsPtute
for
Local
Self
Reliance
Total
Impact
Secondary
Spending
$68
$45
$43
$14
Local
Independent
Chain
CompePtor
Local
Independent
Big
Box
Chain
Read
about
both
studies
at
h^p://bit.ly/tTiv5s
68. SMB’s
Create
Most
New
Jobs
Over
recent
10
years
small
business
created
93%
of
all
net
new
jobs.
Big
Businesses,
7%
Small
&
Medium-‐
sized
Businesses
(SMB),
93%
Source:
U.S.
Small
Business
Authority
1996
-‐
2006
-‐
h^p://www.sba.gov/advo/research/dyn_b_d8906.pdf
69. SMB’s
Create
Most
New
Jobs
8,000,000
6,922,576
Created
100%
of
net
7,000,000
new
jobs
over
6,000,000
last
5
years
5,000,000
4,000,000
Last
recession
(2001)
3,000,000
– Big
Businesses:
4
years
of
job
losses
2,000,000
– Small
Businesses:
1,000,000
1
year
of
job
losses
– Smallest
Businesses:
0
Small
and
Medium
Businesses
Large
Businesses
0
years
of
job
losses
-‐1,000,000
-‐2,000,000
-‐2,071,779
-‐3,000,000
Source:
U.S.
Small
Business
Authority
2001
-‐
2006
-‐
h^p://www.sba.gov/advo/research/dyn_b_d8906.pdf
70. 12,000,000
Total
Job
CreaPon
10,000,000
8,000,000
Small
Businesses
6,000,000
Big
Businesses
4,000,000
2,000,000
0
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
4,000,000
3,000,000
Net
Job
CreaPon
2,000,000
1,000,000
0
Small
Businesses
Big
Businesses
-‐1,000,000
-‐2,000,000
-‐3,000,000
-‐4,000,000
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
Source:
Census
Business
Dynamics
StaJsJcs
71. IncenPves
Big
Business
Small
Business
Threaten
to
leave
Rarely
get
any
incenJves
More
money
for
your
community,
residents,
local
businesses
84. How
can
22
companies
do
750,000
deals?
• They
can’t.
• EDOs
have
missed
that
most
businesses
do
their
own
research
and
that
intermediaries
aren’t
the
true
gatekeepers
they
used
to
be
(if
they
ever
were).
86. How
can
22
companies
do
750,000
deals?
• They
can’t.
• We’ve
missed
that
most
businesses
do
their
own
research
and
that
intermediaries
aren’t
the
true
gatekeepers
they
used
to
be
(if
they
ever
were).
• There
are
actually
no
gate
keepers.
• They
ways
to
reach
expanding
businesses
have
changed
and
expanded
in
possibility
(We
are
beyond
the
TV-‐industrial
complex)
88. Context
We
are
trying
to
prepare
our
communiJes
for
the
future
economy
when
we
can’t
even
anPcipate
what
the
economy
will
look
like
next
week
• Europe
• Housing
• Energy
• ElecJons
• War
• Corporate
Scandal
89. Jobs
Context
The
promise:
• Work
hard
>
do
well
>
go
to
college
>
get
a
good
job.
Work
Go
to
Get
a
Do
Well
Hard
College
Good
Job
90. Jobs
Context
The
reality:
• Widely
known:
Technology
and
globalizaJon
have
reduced
the
number
of
unskilled
jobs.
• Gexng
known:
Technology
and
globalizaJon
are
reducing
the
number
of
skilled
jobs.
– People
used
to
say
“America
should
focus
on
skilled
jobs
and
innovaJon
because
those
won’t
get
outsourced”.
– Marc
Andreessen
“The
spread
of
computers
and
the
Internet
will
put
jobs
in
two
categories,
people
who
tell
computers
what
to
do
and
people
who
are
told
by
computers
what
to
do.”
(Source
USA
Today
9/14/2012,
p.
4F)
91. Jobs
Context
The
result:
• DisrupJon
• Unemployment.
And
this
is
the
only
reality
many
Millennials
know.
Median
Income
&
Middle
Class
There
are
no
guarantees.
• Good
bye
median
income
and
middle
class.
92. The
Economic
Development
SoluPon
to
Problem
Mismatch
93. The
current
system
of
economic
development
was
designed
for
a
different
era
• Industrial/
manufacturing
• Stealing
business
domesJcally
• TV-‐industrial
complex
• Pre-‐globalizaJon
• Pre-‐women
&
minority
execuJves
• Pre-‐Internet
Most
of
what
is
popular
ED
came
from
the
SE
USA.
94. Trying
to
meet
the
future
By
doing
what
we’ve
done
in
the
past.
This
approach
further
alienates
new
economic
development
professionals
who
don’t
relate
to
our
profession’s
history
within
today’s
context.
95. SoluJon
to
problem
mismatch
Many
brilliant
people
in
economic
development
are
told
they
are
not
brilliant
because
they
are
being
measured
on
an
academic/professional/credenJal
system
that
rewards
tradiJonal
approaches
and
thinking.
96.
97. Conv ersion
Innova DisrupPon
Pon
Outside
Re place
ange
Economic
Ch
Shih
Inside
Development
Best
PracPces
Switch
sloc ate
Di
RevoluPon
Transfor
maPon
98.
99. “Change is not necessary.
Survival is optional.”
- W. Edwards Deming