GIS ACG South Asia Power Energy Study Global InfraSys Asia Consulting Group

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    GIS ACG South Asia Power Energy Study Global InfraSys Asia Consulting Group - Presentation Transcript

    1. GLOBAL INFRASYS (P) LTD. & ASIA CONSULTING GROUP (P) LTD. THE SOUTH ASIA POWER & ENERGY STUDY MULTI-CLIENT STUDY PROPOSAL EXECUTIVE SUMMARY & STRATEGIC VALUE ENERGY: SEGMENTS & METHODOLOGY POWER: APPROACH & METHODOLOGY TRACK-RECORD & KNOWLEDGE BASE DELIVERABLES & TIME-LINE www.globalinfrasys.com mailto:query.gis.acg@gmail.com www.acg-asia.com Nov 2008 © Global InfraSys (P) Ltd. & Asia Consulting Group (P) Ltd. Page 1 The South Asia Power & Energy Study • Multi-Client Study Proposal
    2. G L O B A L I N F R A S Y S ( P ) L TD . & A S I A C O N S U L T I N G G R O U P ( P ) L TD . T HE S OUTH A SIA P OWER & E NERGY S TUDY M U L T I -C L I E N T S T U D Y P R O P O S A L EXECUTIVE SUMMARY & STRATEGIC VALUE ENERGY: SEGMENTS & METHODOLOGY POWER: APPROACH & METHODOLOGY TRACK-RECORD & KNOWLEDGE BASE DELIVERABLES & TIME-LINE © Global InfraSys (P) Ltd. & Asia Consulting Group (P) Ltd. Page 2 The South Asia Power & Energy Study • Multi-Client Study Proposal
    3. South Asia Power & Energy Study: Background South Asia is projected to account for over 20 % of new Global Primary Energy Demand over the next 20 years. The region offers tremendous investment opportunities in the Power & Energy sectors. The world economic & energy axis has been shifting to Asia over the past two decades. With the global financial crisis and the relative resilience of key Asian Economies, these trends are likely to become more pronounced in the future. Over the past 5 years, the Global Power & Energy industries have experienced fundamental shifts in the dynamics of demand & supply, competition & price, as well as the policy & regulatory environment. These are manifested in: - Uncertainty in LNG Supply & Pricing - Oil Price Movement impacting Naphtha Prices - Dramatic Shifts in Coal Supply & Pricing - Financial & Currency Uncertainty Additional drivers of the quantum shifts in the Power & Energy sectors in South Asia include: - Onset of RIL Krishna Godavari (KG) Gas production - Indo-US Civilian Nuclear Power / International Cooperation - India Targeted Pipelines (Iran & Middle East) - Policy Impetus to Bio-Fuels & Renewable Energy These shifts and their potential impact have not been fully understood or evaluated and pose a tremendous challenge to Market Development, Project Risk Assessment and National System Planning To address these challenges, GIS-ACG has launched \"The South Asia Power & Energy Study\" spanning all the 8 countries of SAARC (South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation) including India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, Nepal, Bhutan, Afghanistan and Maldives. The study will serve as a firm foundation for National & State Energy Planning, Corporate Strategic Market Planning, as well as Power & Energy Project Due-diligence and Risk Assessment. The study will provide clients with Fundamental Analysis, Forecasts and Strategic insight across South Asia at both the National and State levels. It will include an integrated and in-depth assessment of the Power sector (including electricity generation Markets and Projects based on Coal, Gas, Nuclear, Hydro & Renewable resources) and the Energy sector (include Refining (Petrol, Diesel & LPG), Natural Gas (Pipeline, LNG & CNG) & Coal.) The study was launched on 1st of October 2008 and will be completed by 31 March 2009. Over 6 months and 2,500 Man Days will be required to complete the study. In addition, 11 years of GIS-ACG Global & Asian Power & Energy R&D will be leveraged towards the study. ACG will also deploy its proprietary arsenal of over 400 (on-line) resources focused on South Asian Power & Energy. © Global InfraSys (P) Ltd. & Asia Consulting Group (P) Ltd. Page 3 The South Asia Power & Energy Study • Multi-Client Study Proposal
    4. Study Strategic Value: By Client Type The Study will provide a rigorous foundation for Client Strategic Business & Investment Plans as well as Asset Valuation / Opportunity Assessment in the South Asian region. • What is the holistic commercial • How will domestic Gas • What is the potential viability of Domestic • How will Nuclear Demand/Supply effect plans for for additional LNG Gas Fields & Pipelines? Power affect International Gas Pipelines & LNG Terminals in India? LNG/Gas Plans? Projects? • How much RIL/KG Gas can be expected and what price? (Medium & Long Run) • How will LNG Prices & Domestic • What is the overall • How much Gas/LNG Gas Demand/Supply effect the Nuclear Power potential in can realistically be Energy Naphtha Market in India? India & South Asia? expected to be available • What are the Strategic & Tactical to the Power Sector? Options before Refining Companies? • How will Nuclear Power impact other Power Assets (due to Competitive Tariff & \"Must • What is the EPC & Power Vendors Run\" MoD Status? Equipment Market Profile of South Asia over the next 20 EPC & years? Equipment • What is the State Ranking in South Asia from a Power Project Investment Perspective? • Who are the key Potential Allies & Competitors in the region? • What range of Returns can be Equity Debt expected from Power Project Equity Investors Lenders Investments? • What is the structure of the Alliances in the Power & Energy Sectors? • How do Hydro & Renewable Power • Where are the Equity & Lending • What is the Competitive Projects (Solar, Wind, Biomass) Opportunities in the Power & Energy Environment in the Power & compare with other Power Assets as sectors in South Asia? Energy Sectors? an investment class? • What are the potential Risks & Returns on a State & Asset based analysis? © Global InfraSys (P) Ltd. & Asia Consulting Group (P) Ltd. Page 4 The South Asia Power & Energy Study • Multi-Client Study Proposal
    5. Study SWOT Value: Business & Asset Plan The Study will provide a high confidence framework for SWOT Analysis of Client Business & Asset Plans. It will take into account all key Global & Regional factors impacting Power & Energy Markets & Projects. Business & Asset Plan Strengths Weaknesses Opportunities Threats © Global InfraSys (P) Ltd. & Asia Consulting Group (P) Ltd. Page 5 The South Asia Power & Energy Study • Multi-Client Study Proposal
    6. Global vs. South Asia Power & Energy Markets South Asia's Primary Energy Demand is projected to more than double between 2010 and 2030 and is estimated to account for 20% of the Global New Primary Demand in this period. Additional World Primary Energy Demand 2010-2030 South Asia 20% Rest of World Q. Btu 80% 60 South Asia Primary Energy Demand 2010-2030 50 40 Maldives Afghanistan 30 Bhutan Nepal 20 Sri Lanka Bangladesh 10 Pakistan India 0 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 © Global InfraSys (P) Ltd. & Asia Consulting Group (P) Ltd. Page 6 The South Asia Power & Energy Study • Multi-Client Study Proposal
    7. Study Scope: South Asia - SAARC Region SAARC Afghanistan Pakistan India • SAARC was established in 1985, by the Heads of South Asian Association Government of Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, for Regional Cooperation Maldives, Nepal, Pakistan and Sri Lanka. • It's aim is to accelerate the process of Economic & Social development in Member States. • In 1987, the SAARC Secretariat was established in Kathmandu. • Afghanistan became a member of SAARC in 2005. Nepal Bhutan Bangladesh Established SAARC Centres Secretariat India Pakistan Agriculture & Rural Bangladesh Nepal Development Division Afghanistan Sri Lanka Environment & Science Bhutan & Technology Division Maldives Economic, Trade & Finance Division Population Overview (2007) GDP at Current Prices (2006) Disputed 1% 1% 0% Social Affairs Division 0% 3%1% 0% Territories 2% 2% 0% Information & 6% Publication Division 9% 11% Administration, Energy 78% & Tourism Division 11% 75% Human Resource Development, Transport Sri Lanka Maldives & Treaty Division Total: 1.506 Million Total: US$ 1,117 Billion Source: ADB (Population), IMF (GDP) © Global InfraSys (P) Ltd. & Asia Consulting Group (P) Ltd. Page 7 The South Asia Power & Energy Study • Multi-Client Study Proposal
    8. South Asia Power & Energy Study: Components The Study will develop 25 Year Forecasts, Industry Projections and Scenario Simulation. These will cover all aspects of Market & Project Environment including Policy & Regulatory Developments, Demand, Supply, Price, Competition & Inter-Fuel Substitution Dynamics. Market Review Energy Pricing National & State Overview For each energy source the study will provide: Political, Policy and Regulatory Environment - Dynamics of Demand & Supply Market Environment - A detailed analysis of the price dynamics Project Opportunity Assessment - Long range forecasts of prices - Net impact on cost of power Energy Demand Energy Competition & • Power: Gas/LNG, Naphtha, Coal, Nuclear, Hydro & Renewables Inter-Fuel Substitution Dynamics • Fertilizer - Gas/LNG, Naphtha & Fuel Oil / LSHS • Industrial - Gas/LNG, Naphtha & Fuel Oil / LSHS - Net impact on competitive position of energy • Residential - LPG & City Gas sources on Power & Energy Dynamics & Projects • Transport - Petrol, Diesel & CNG Energy Supply • Energy: Pipeline Gas (Domestic & International) & LNG • Refineries - Petrol, Diesel, Naphtha & LPG Client Categories • Coal: Domestic & International - Multilateral Agencies - Equipment Suppliers • Hydro & Renewables - Financial Institutions - Service Providers • Major Supply Project Profiles - Power Companies - Consulting Firms • Energy Source Development Schedules - Energy Companies - Law Firms & Production Volumes (Scenarios) - Project Developers - National & State Planners - Gas Fields & Pipelines - EPC Contractors - Government Agencies - LNG Terminals & Pipelines - O&M Contractors - Asian Associations - Insurance Companies - Economic Planners - Refineries Liquid Fuels & Pipelines - Electric Utilities - Research Institutions - Coal-Mines & Jetties & Transport - Equity Participants - Renewables Sources & In-Situ © Global InfraSys (P) Ltd. & Asia Consulting Group (P) Ltd. Page 8 The South Asia Power & Energy Study • Multi-Client Study Proposal
    9. South Asia Power & Energy Study: Scope The Study will encompass 8 Countries, 5 Energy Demand Sectors & 12 Key Energy Supply Sectors. It will assess the impact of Fuel Prices, Policy & Regulatory developments on Inter-Fuel Competition. Energy Demand 8 Countries Power Fertilizer Industry Residential Transport Other Energy Supply Nuclear Power India Pipeline Gas Renewables ** Pakistan LNG GTL Bio-Mass CNG Bangladesh Hydro Refineries * Sri Lanka LPG Nepal Coal CTL Bhutan Price Afghanistan Price Forecasts Demand-Supply Balance Maldives Competition Competition & Risk Consumer Options Inter-Fuel Substitution Impact Assessment Strategic Options * Naphtha, Petrol, Diesel, Kerosene Policy & Regulatory Policy Frameworks Regulatory Environment ** Wind, Solar, Tidal © Global InfraSys (P) Ltd. & Asia Consulting Group (P) Ltd. Page 9 The South Asia Power & Energy Study • Multi-Client Study Proposal
    10. South Asia Power & Energy Study: Framework ACG will conduct a detailed assessment of all key Energy offtake sectors and provide Energy demand forecasts that incorporate the dynamics of Demand-Supply, Competition, Price and Fuel-Switch Potential. Power Fertilizer Industry Residential Transport Overview & Business Model Regulatory Environment Recent Significant Developments Policy Issues & Future Outlook Energy Demand Forecasts Energy Demand Forecasts Historical Current Project State Base Supply Constraint & Fuel Switch Dynamics Analysis State Based Based Forecast Competition Dynamics Adjusted Forecast Power Fertilizer Industry Residential Transport © Global InfraSys (P) Ltd. & Asia Consulting Group (P) Ltd. Page 10 The South Asia Power & Energy Study • Multi-Client Study Proposal
    11. South Asia Power & Energy Study: Scope Depth The South Asia Power & Energy Study will encompass Level 1-4 Assessments at the State Level for India & Pakistan and at the Country Level for all other countries in the region. Level Title Detail Man-Days † Sequential Buildup 1 Country Market Assessment - Economic & Industry 30 (Standardized across 194 Countries) - Power - Energy 2 Independent Demand Forecasts - Power 30 (Capacity, Generation, Base-Peak Load) - Energy-Mix (Primary & By Sector) - Energy Price & Power Input Cost 3 Supply Project Profiling & Rating - Profiling 30 Power & Energy Projects - Tracking - Rating 4 Merit Order Dispatch (MoD) - Synthesis of 30 (System Dispatch Risk) Level 2 & 3 Assessments 5 Merit Order Payment (MoP) - Off-taker Financial Modeling 30 - Project Financial Risk - 50 6 Gas-Power Assessment & Strategy - Spark-Spread 30 - Gas Market Aggregation - Gas-Power Asset Optimization 7 Power Asset Valuation - Contract vs. Merchant Cash Flow & IRR 30 Energy Asset Valuation - Valuation: Development / Buy-In - - Positioning: Dilution / Exit 50 210-250 † Range: +/- 10 Days † Exceptions: USA, India, China, Australia (Selected Large Multi-State/Region Nations) Synthesis, Modeling & Simulation © Global InfraSys (P) Ltd. & Asia Consulting Group (P) Ltd. Page 11 The South Asia Power & Energy Study • Multi-Client Study Proposal
    12. South Asia Power Overview: By Country & State The total Installed Capacity of the South Asia Region is about 170 GW. Each state has a unique power investment profile. Maldives Afghanistan Pakistan India Others by Total Afghanistan Bhutan Nepal Sri Lanka Bangladesh Kashmir (P) Pakistan by State Balochistan NWFP & FATA Sind Nepal Bhutan Bangladesh Punjab Lakshwadeep Andaman Nicobar India by State Daman & Diu Dadra & N. Haveli Chandigarh Nagaland Mizoram Manipur Arunachal Pradesh Sikkim Tripura Pondicherry Installed Capacity Range Meghalaya (MW) Goa 10,000-25,000 Assam J&K 2500-10,000 Sri Lanka Maldives Himachal Pradesh 500-2500 Bihar < 500 Jharkhand Uttaranchal Kerala Chhattisgarh Delhi Orissa Haryana Rajasthan Punjab West Bengal Madhya Pradesh State Karnataka Private IPP Uttar Pradesh Central Share Gujarat Andhra Pradesh Tamil Nadu Maharashtra MW 0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000 20,000 © Global InfraSys (P) Ltd. & Asia Consulting Group (P) Ltd. Page 12 The South Asia Power & Energy Study • Multi-Client Study Proposal
    13. The South Asia Study: 46 Geographic Segments The study scope includes 46 distinct States & Union Territories. The Time & Effort estimates are based on the installed power capacity. MW Range -> < 500 500-2,500 2,500-10,000 10,000-25,000 Total Other Maldives 3 6 SAARC Afghanistan Bhutan Nations Nepal 1 Sri Lanka 2 Bangladesh Pakistan Kashmir (P) 2 5 Balochistan NWFP & FATA Sind 3 Punjab India Lakshwadeep Andaman Nicobar Daman & Diu Dadra & N. Haveli Chandigarh Nagaland Mizoram 14 14 Manipur Arunachal Pradesh Sikkim Tripura Pondicherry Meghalaya Goa Assam J&K Himachal Pradesh 6 6 Bihar Jharkhand Uttaranchal Kerala Chhattisgarh Delhi Orissa Haryana Rajasthan 11 11 Punjab State West Bengal Private IPP Madhya Pradesh Karnataka Central Share Uttar Pradesh Gujarat Andhra Pradesh 4 4 Tamil Nadu Maharashtra 17 9 16 4 46 0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000 © Global InfraSys (P) Ltd. & Asia Consulting Group (P) Ltd. Page 13 The South Asia Power & Energy Study • Multi-Client Study Proposal
    14. South Asia Energy Import Plans: LNG & Gas Turkmenistan Afghanistan Pakistan India • The forecasted enormous shortfall of gas led the energy industry to propose and develop over 30 plans to deliver gas to India alone. • ACG recorded a total of nearly 23 LNG terminals that were proposed over the past 12 years. • There have been plans for almost 6 international gas pipelines to India from Qatar, Oman, Iran, Iran Turkmenistan, Bangladesh and Myanmar. Iraq Nepal Bhutan Bangladesh Kuwait Qatar To China UAE Jamnagar 5 MT HBJ Pipeline Oman (Reliance) Saudi Arabia Myanmar Dahej 5 MT (Petronet LNG) Pipavav 2.5 MT (British Gas) Disputed Kishorprasad 3.5 MT* Territories Hazira 2.5 MT (Shell) Yemen Gopalpur 5 MT (Petronet LNG) Maroli 2.5 MT (Natelco - Unocal) Vizag 2.0 - 2.5 MT Trombay 3 MT (GAIL-TEC-Total) (HPCL - Total) *Consortium Dabhol 5 MT (Enron) Kakinada 2.5 MT (CMS Energy) Betul 1.0 - 2.5 MT (Petronet LNG) 2.5 MT (IOC - Petronas) Sri Lanka Maldives Byndoor 2.5 MT (L&T) 1.25 MT (Ispat Energy) Mangalore 2.5 MT (Not Finalized) 1 MT (Nagarjuna Group) Azhikal (Not Finalized) Ennore 2.5 MT (Dakshin Bharat) Kochi 2.5 MT (Petronet LNG) Vembar 2.5 MT (Indian Gas Ltd.) © Global InfraSys (P) Ltd. & Asia Consulting Group (P) Ltd. Page 14 The South Asia Power & Energy Study • Multi-Client Study Proposal
    15. ACG Revision of Hydrocarbon Vision 2025 Asia Consulting Group was mandated by the FICCI (Federation of Indian Chambers of Commerce & Industry) to Review the Hydrocarbon Vision 2025 and examine its 25 year forecasts of demand & supply of Hydrocarbons in India. Asia Consulting Group conducted the first ever reassessment of the Hydrocarbon Vision 2025 of India under the auspices of the Hydrocarbon Committee of the Federation of Indian Chambers of Commerce & Industry (FICCI). The Hydrocarbon Vision 2025 projected that in the next 25 years, gas demand in India would increase seven fold from the restrained consumption of 60 MMSCMD in 1999 to an optimistic case potential gas demand of 390 MMSCMD in 2025. ACG has reviewed the forecasts in the Hydrocarbon Vision 2025 and concluded that these are highly exaggerated. This has led to an impression that the market can absorb several sources of gas and LNG. Asia Consulting Group also conducted the first assessment of the KG Gas finds by RIL and the entire Power & Energy market of southern India. Business Standard, 6 November 2002 Page 2 © Global InfraSys (P) Ltd. & Asia Consulting Group (P) Ltd. Page 15 The South Asia Power & Energy Study • Multi-Client Study Proposal
    16. G L O B A L I N F R A S Y S ( P ) L TD . & A S I A C O N S U L T I N G G R O U P ( P ) L TD . T HE S OUTH A SIA P OWER & E NERGY S TUDY M U L T I -C L I E N T S T U D Y P R O P O S A L EXECUTIVE SUMMARY & STRATEGIC VALUE ENERGY: SEGMENTS & METHODOLOGY DEMAND POWER: APPROACH & METHODOLOGY SUPPLY TRACK-RECORD & KNOWLEDGE BASE PRICE DELIVERABLES & TIME-LINE COMPETITION REGULATION © Global InfraSys (P) Ltd. & Asia Consulting Group (P) Ltd. Page 16 The South Asia Power & Energy Study • Multi-Client Study Proposal
    17. South Asia Overview: Power Turkmenistan Afghanistan Pakistan India • In 2007, the total installed capacity of South Asia was 165 GW with the following overall fuel-mix: Coal (44%), Hydro (26%), Gas (15%), Renewables (6%), Furnace Oil (4%), Nuclear (3%) and Diesel (2%). Iran Iraq Nepal Bhutan Bangladesh Kuwait Qatar UAE Oman Saudi Arabia Myanmar Disputed Installed Capacity Installed Capacity by Country (2007) Territories by Technology (2007) Yemen India 135 3% 2% 4% Pakistan 20 6% Bangladesh 5 44% Coal Sri Lanka 2.4 Gas Nepal 0.6 Furnace Oil 15% Sri Lanka Maldives Bhutan* 0.4 Diesel Hydro Afghanistan* 0.3 Nuclear Maldives 0.1 Renewables GW 26% 0 50 100 150 Source: CEA, NEPRA, BPDB, CEB, NEA, DoE, AEIC, STELCO * Installed Capacity is of 2006 Total Installed Capacity: 165 GW © Global InfraSys (P) Ltd. & Asia Consulting Group (P) Ltd. Page 17 The South Asia Power & Energy Study • Multi-Client Study Proposal
    18. Energy Demand: Power Sector ACG has developed a detailed Seven Step process to assess long range Power & associated Energy Demand projections. ACG rates all projects under development & forecasts High & Medium Success projects to be phased in from 2008-2013. The Power Reform Process is forecasted to gradually enable new power capacity. Power shortage is assumed to end by 2020. The long range generation profile is forecasted to be proportionate to a weighted generation fuel-mix of historical & new projects. 40000 200000 MW GWhr Project Rated MoD Validated 180000 35000 Generation (GWhr) = Energy Market (Q Btu) Capacity (MW) 160000 30000 140000 25000 120000 20000 100000 80000 15000 60000 10000 40000 5000 20000 0 0 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 1 7 Capacity (MW) & Generation Legend Capacity Projection by Fuel (2014-2030) By Weighted Generation ACG Projected Shortage 1991-2007 Utility & ACG Historical Data ACG Demand Forecast by Fuel Project Generation Summary 2008-2013 ACG Rated Projects* 200000 Historical Projected 2014-2030 ACG Long Range Projection 160000 (1991-2007) (2008-2013) * High & Medium Success Potential Only 120000 80000 60% 40% 40000 1993 2001 2009 2017 2025 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 2 6 5 Shortage Reduction % At Average Historical PLFs (1991-2007) 100% No Shortage by 2020 100% Nuclear 80% 200000 80% Coal 60% 160000 Gas Naphtha LNG 60% Liquid Fuels 40% 120000 Hydro 40% 3 80000 20% 4 20% 40000 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 0% 1993 2001 2009 2017 2025 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 Reviewed 24 April 2005: 8.10 PM © Global InfraSys (P) Ltd. & Asia Consulting Group (P) Ltd. Page 18 The South Asia Power & Energy Study • Multi-Client Study Proposal
    19. South Asia Overview: Fertilizer Sector Turkmenistan Afghanistan Pakistan India In 2007, the total Fertilizer Production in South Asia was 43.76 MMT. India had the highest regional production share of 82% followed by Pakistan with 9%. Iran Iraq Nepal Bhutan Bangladesh Kuwait Qatar UAE Oman Saudi Arabia Myanmar Disputed SAARC: Fertilizer Production Territories (2007) Yemen SAARC: Fertilizer Production (2007) 1% 1% 1% 1% India 0% 5% Pakistan India Bangladesh Pakistan 9% Sri Lanka Bangladesh Nepal Sri Lanka* Sri Lanka Maldives Bhutan Nepal* Afghanistan Bhutan* Maldives 82% Note: Afghanistan* 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 Total: 43.76 MMT - Fertilizer Plants Maldives* MMT MMT - Million Metric Ton Source: Website of Respective Govt. * - Under Research © Global InfraSys (P) Ltd. & Asia Consulting Group (P) Ltd. Page 19 The South Asia Power & Energy Study • Multi-Client Study Proposal
    20. Energy Demand: Fertilizer Sector ACG will conduct fertilizer sector energy consumption analysis (including Gas, LNG, Naphtha and Fuel Oil) of all the states in the region. ACG tracks & rates all the fertilizer plants (existing and planned) in South Asia. The Energy Demand Forecast in the Fertilizer Sector will follow a two tiered approach. Tier I: Macro Approach Excerpts from Past ACG Studies • Food & Agriculture Production Models Production of fertilizers 8000 100.0 • Fertilizer Demand Models 90.0 7000 • Demand for Ammonia / Urea by specific market Capacity utilization 80.0 Nitrogenous 6000 70.0 • Cost of supply (or alternative supply) Production 5000 Phosphatic 60.0 • Economics of fertilizer production and gas price 4000 50.0 Nitrogenous 40.0 3000 that can be supported Phosphatic 30.0 2000 20.0 • Size of gas market that can be supported for 1000 10.0 fertilizer without causing collapse of fertilizer prices 0 0.0 87-88 88-89 89-90 90-91 91-92 92-93 93-94 Year Tier II: Micro Approach • Capacity utilization of nitrogenous industry increased mainly due to increased capacity utilization of gas-based plants. (End Use & Botton-Up Approach) • Unbalanced policy changes resulted in the decline in the capacity utilization of phosphatic industry. • Fertilizer Plant Level Analysis • Success Rating & Potential Consumption of Gas by Plant CuM Gas per Ton Nitrogenous Fertilizer Plants shifting to • State Level & Region Level Aggregation. alternate fuel Extra investment Turning to to handle dual alternate fuels fuel High energy consuming & polluting nature High investment of past fuel set. • High price cost • low conversion factor Higher subsidy burden Higher cost of production N Production in Thousand Tonnes by Plant © Global InfraSys (P) Ltd. & Asia Consulting Group (P) Ltd. Page 20 The South Asia Power & Energy Study • Multi-Client Study Proposal
    21. South Asia Overview: Industrial Sectors Turkmenistan Afghanistan Pakistan India • Approximately 25% of the South Asian region's GDP is based on Industrial Activity. • There are over 30 SEZs (Special Economic Zones) in South Asia with several new SEZs being planned & implemented. SEZ, Risalpur Nowshera Wah Iran Rawalpindi Gujrawala SEZ, Sialkot Lyallpur Iraq Lahore SEZ, Sandak Jalandhar Nepal Bhutan Bangladesh Quettta Multan Kuwait Rahimyar Khan Delhi Gurgaon SEZ, Noida Faridabad Ghaziabad Kanpur Guwahati Qatar EPZ, Uttara Hyderabad SEZ, Karachi UAE Durgapur EPZ, Ishwardi Landhi EPZ, Dhaka EPZ, Adamjee SEZ, Kandla SEZ, Pithampura Jamshedpur EPZ, Comilla Oman Khulna Saudi Arabia EPZ,Chittagong Bhopal EPZ, Mongla Indore Myanmar Bhilai Falta SEZ, SEZ, Surat EPZ, Karnaphuli Nasik Kolkata SEEPZ-SEZ, Disputed Share of Sectors in GDP, 2005-06 Mumbai Aurangabad Territories India Yemen Pune Pakistan SEZ, Visakhapatnam Hyderabad Bangladesh Sri Lanka Nepal Bengaluru (Hosur) EPZ,Mawathagama Sri Lanka Maldives SEZ, Chennai Bhutan EPZ,Polgahawela Note: SEZ - Special Economic Zone EPZ,Mirigama Afghanistan Coimbatore EPZ - Export Processing Zone EPP, Malwatta EPZ, Wathupitiwela Maldives EPP - Export Processing Park EPZ,Katunayaka Legends SEZ, Cochin Kandy IP EPZ,Biyagama IP - Industrial Park 0 20 40 60 80 100 SEZ/EPZ/EPP/IP EPZ,Horana Seethawaka IP % Share Industrial Zones Agriculture Industry Services EPZ, Koggala Mirijjawela IP © Global InfraSys (P) Ltd. & Asia Consulting Group (P) Ltd. Page 21 The South Asia Power & Energy Study • Multi-Client Study Proposal
    22. Energy Demand: Industrial Sectors The Industrial Energy Demand Forecast will include all the key industrial consumers of Energy (as both Feedstock & Fuel). The Study will also review the potential for new gas based industries. ACG has conducted detailed assessments of 35 different industrial sectors in South Asia. Excerpts from Past ACG Studies Fuel Substitution Dynamics & Potential Energy Demand QBtu Total Offtake: Energy Purposes Industrial Growth & Trend Analysis MCM Base Economic Models 1990 2000 Gas Consumption by Industry (Illustrative) 100% Others Non Energy Purposes Petro-Chemicals 80% QBtu Total Non-Energy Offtake MCM Fertilizer Industry Others Energy Purposes 60% Captive Use/LPG Shrinkage Domestic Fuel 40% Tea Plantation Industrial Fuel 20% Power Generation 0% 1990 1995 2000 © Global InfraSys (P) Ltd. & Asia Consulting Group (P) Ltd. Page 22 The South Asia Power & Energy Study • Multi-Client Study Proposal
    23. South Asia Overview: Residential Sector Turkmenistan Afghanistan Pakistan India The total area of South Asia region is 5 Million sq. km. The total population of the region in 2007 was 1,506 Million. India alone represents 76% of the region's population. In 2008, the population growth rate of the South Asian region was estimated to be 1.68%. Iran Iraq Nepal Bhutan Bangladesh Kuwait Qatar UAE Oman Saudi Arabia Myanmar Population by Locality: 2001 Disputed Population Density Territories Range (Person/sq. km) India Yemen > 1,000 Pakistan 400-1,000 Bangladesh 200-400 100-200 Sri Lanka < 100 Nepal Rural Source: India- Government Census 2001, Sri Lanka Maldives Bhutan Urban Pakistan- Government Census 1998, Bangladesh- Government Census 2001, Afghanistan Sri Lanka- Government Census 2001, Nepal- Government Census 2001, Maldives Bhutan- Government Census 2005, 0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 Afghanistan- Government Estimate 2005, Maldives- Government Census 2005 Millions © Global InfraSys (P) Ltd. & Asia Consulting Group (P) Ltd. Page 23 The South Asia Power & Energy Study • Multi-Client Study Proposal
    24. Energy Demand: Residential Sector ACG will assess the energy demand in the Residential Sector based on Household driver data in each state, including Census Data Analysis, Income Distribution Analysis, End Use Models and Planned City Gas Projects. Metros, large towns and emerging rural markets will be evaluated by developing base reference models in each category. India Residential Sector Fuel Consumption 2001 (% Households) Conversion Models Gas Demand Domestic Sector 7% 2% Gas Firewood LPG Domestic Energy Models 10% Demand LPG Crop Residue Firewood 52% Cowdung Cake 10% Kerosene Coal, Lignite, Charcoal Other Biogas 18% India Residential Sector Fuel Consumption 1991 (% Households) Cow Dung Others 6.0 MTOE 6% Kerosene 11% Firewood LPG 69% Growth 11 %+ State Data Review & Target Plans Analysis LPG 11% Census Data Review & Trend Analysis (1981,1991,2001) 2.0 1988 1998 Base Economic Models Year ~ 22 MTOE © Global InfraSys (P) Ltd. & Asia Consulting Group (P) Ltd. Page 24 The South Asia Power & Energy Study • Multi-Client Study Proposal
    25. South Asia Overview: Transportation Sectors Turkmenistan Afghanistan Pakistan India In 2007 the Total Length of: - Road network in South Asian region was 4 Million km, of which 84% was in India. - Railway network in South Asia was 75,685 km, of which 84% was in India. • The Total Number of airports in the region was 626, of which 55% were in India. Iran Iraq Nepal Bhutan Bangladesh Kuwait Qatar UAE Oman Saudi Arabia Myanmar Airports by Country: 2007 Transport Overview: 2007 1% Disputed 7% 0% Territories Yemen 8% India 3% Pakistan 3% 55% Bangladesh Sri Lanka Total Vehicles Numbers: Nepal Sri Lanka Maldives 626 (Thousand) Road (km) Bhutan 23% Rail (km) Afghanistan 1,000,000 Maldives Afghanistan India Bangladesh Nepal Note: The bar graph is Pakistan Sri Lanka Bhutan Maldives 1 10 100 1,000 10,000 100,000 10,000,000 plotted on log-scale. © Global InfraSys (P) Ltd. & Asia Consulting Group (P) Ltd. Page 25 The South Asia Power & Energy Study • Multi-Client Study Proposal
    26. Energy Demand: Transportation Sectors ACG will assess energy demand in the Transportation sector based on Fleet & Income distribution analysis and End-Use models. Policy driven planned conversion targets & fuel economics driven consumer conversion to CNG will also be incorporated. Demand will be assessed at the state level with particular focus on metros, towns and emerging rural markets. Transport Sector Fuel Consumption by Transport Sector 1993 Gas CNG Transport CNG Transport Models Demand FO Metros: 7% • Mumbai • Delhi • Gujarat Towns Diesel Oil 26% HSDO 66% Illustrative Policy Led Growth ~ 5.8 MTPA State Data Review & Target Plans Analysis Census Data Review & Trend Analysis (1981,1991,2001) Base Economic Models © Global InfraSys (P) Ltd. & Asia Consulting Group (P) Ltd. Page 26 The South Asia Power & Energy Study • Multi-Client Study Proposal
    27. G L O B A L I N F R A S Y S ( P ) L TD . & A S I A C O N S U L T I N G G R O U P ( P ) L TD . T HE S OUTH A SIA P OWER & E NERGY S TUDY M U L T I -C L I E N T S T U D Y P R O P O S A L EXECUTIVE SUMMARY & STRATEGIC VALUE ENERGY: SEGMENTS & METHODOLOGY DEMAND POWER: APPROACH & METHODOLOGY SUPPLY TRACK-RECORD & KNOWLEDGE BASE PRICE DELIVERABLES & TIME-LINE COMPETITION REGULATION © Global InfraSys (P) Ltd. & Asia Consulting Group (P) Ltd. Page 27 The South Asia Power & Energy Study • Multi-Client Study Proposal
    28. Energy Supply: LNG & Gas Pipeline Projects Turkmenistan Afghanistan Pakistan India • The study will assess the entire range of major Gas/LNG projects in the South Asian region. (Installed & Planned) • This will include Gas: - Field Development Schedule - Production Volumes (Projections & Scenarios) - Pipeline Projects (Timing & Costs) - Taxation Structure & Gas Pricing by State Iran Iraq Nepal Bhutan Bangladesh Kuwait Qatar To China UAE Jamnagar 5 MT HBJ Pipeline Oman (Reliance) Saudi Arabia Myanmar Dahej 5 MT (Petronet LNG) Pipavav 2.5 MT (British Gas) Disputed PMT Kishorprasad 3.5 MT* Territories Hazira 2.5 MT (Shell) Yemen Gopalpur 5 MT (Petronet LNG) Maroli 2.5 MT (Natelco - Unocal) KG Gas Vizag 2.0 - 2.5 MT Trombay 3 MT (HPCL - Total) (GAIL-TEC-Total) *Consortium Dabhol 5 MT (Enron) Kakinada 2.5 MT (CMS Energy) Betul 1.0 - 2.5 MT (Petronet LNG) 2.5 MT (IOC - Petronas) Sri Lanka Maldives Byndoor 2.5 MT (L&T) 1.25 MT (Ispat Energy) Mangalore 2.5 MT (Not Finalized) 1 MT (Nagarjuna Group) Azhikal (Not Finalized) Ennore 2.5 MT (Dakshin Bharat) Kochi 2.5 MT (Petronet LNG) Vembar 2.5 MT (Indian Gas Ltd.) Key Cities / Towns © Global InfraSys (P) Ltd. & Asia Consulting Group (P) Ltd. Page 28 The South Asia Power & Energy Study • Multi-Client Study Proposal
    29. Energy Supply: Refining Capacity by Region Turkmenistan Afghanistan Pakistan India The total Refining Capacity in South Asia in 2006- 07 was 165.6 Mt. The Naphtha production by country was: India (16.4 Mt), Pakistan (0.83 Mt), Sri Lanka (0.09 Mt) and Bangladesh (0.13 Mt). India Iran Northern Region: 20.0 Mt Iraq Nepal Bhutan Bangladesh Kuwait Pakistan Total:12.9 Mt Qatar UAE Total Bangladesh:1.5 Mt Oman Saudi Arabia India Total: 149 Mt Myanmar India Western Region: 74.7 Mt Disputed India Territories Yemen North Eastern Region: 7.0 Mt SAARC Total Refining Capacity: 165.8 Mt India SAARC Total Naphtha Production: 17.5 Mt Eastern Region: 12.0 Mt India Legend Sri Lanka Maldives Southern Region: 35.3 Mt Government Private 7.5 Mt 7.5 Mt Total Sri Lanka: 2.2 Mt © Global InfraSys (P) Ltd. & Asia Consulting Group (P) Ltd. Page 29 The South Asia Power & Energy Study • Multi-Client Study Proposal
    30. Energy Supply: Refining Capacity by Location Turkmenistan Afghanistan Pakistan India The total Refining Capacity of South Asia as of April 2008 was 165.6 mtpa - India (149 mtpa), Pakistan (12.9 mtpa), Bangladesh (1.5 mtpa) and Sri Lanka* (2.2 mtpa). As of Aug 2008, there were 28 refineries operating in the South Asia region. India has 19 refineries, Pakistan has 7 and Bangladesh and Sri Lanka have 1 ARL Iran refinery each. Rawalpindi Iraq Dhodak DRL Muzaffarnagar Nepal Bhutan Bangladesh Kuwait IOC, Panipat PARCO IOC, Mathura IOC, Digboi IOC, Bongiagaon Gadani Qatar NRL, Numaligarh Karachi IOC, Guwahati Bosicor IOC, Barauni UAE PRL ENAR RIL, Jamnagar NRL Oman Saudi Arabia IOC, Haldia ESSAR, Vadinar IOC, Koyali ERL, Chittagong Myanmar BPCL, Mumbai Disputed Refining Capacity, April 2008 HPCL, Mumbai Territories Yemen India HPCL, Visakhapatnam Refining Production (2006-07) Pakistan 1% 1% 0% ONGC, Tatipaka Bangladesh 7% Sri Lanka* Nepal CPCL, Manali (Chennai) Bhutan Sri Lanka Maldives MRPL, Mangalore Afghanistan 91% Maldives CPCL, Nagappattanam Total: 165.6 mtpa 0 50 mtpa 100 150 KRL, Kochi Sources: Websites of respective Govt. Ministries and Refinery Companies, 2008 Note: shows Refinery India Pakistan Bangladesh Sri Lanka* Sapugaskanda Nepal Bhutan Afghanistan Maldives * - data is of 2005 © Global InfraSys (P) Ltd. & Asia Consulting Group (P) Ltd. Page 30 The South Asia Power & Energy Study • Multi-Client Study Proposal
    31. Energy Supply: Product Production Ratios The Study will forecast product availability in the region as well as the Fuel-Switch impact on fuels such as Naphtha. The South Asia region has a unique signature in terms of product production ratios. This is governed by both the type of crude oil imported and the consumption profile of the key offtake sectors in the region. India Refining Product Production Ratios(Illustrative) Light Distilltates 100% Naphtha MS LPG 80% Middle Distillates SKO LDO 60% HSD ATF 40% Heavy Distillates 20% Lubes LSHS FO Bitumen 0% 1. Bharat Petroleum, Bombay 5. Madras Refineries 9. Bongaigaon Refineries Ltd 2. IOC, Koyali 6. HPCL, Bombay 10. IOC, Barauni 3. Cochin Refineries 7. HPCL, Vishakapatnam 11. Madras Refineries Ltd, Nariaman 4. IOC, Mathura 8. IOC, Haldia 12. IOC, Digboi 13. IOC, Guwahati Production Profile 1995 © Global InfraSys (P) Ltd. & Asia Consulting Group (P) Ltd. Page 31 The South Asia Power & Energy Study • Multi-Client Study Proposal
    32. Energy Supply: LPG & City Gas (Residential Sector) Turkmenistan Afghanistan Pakistan India In 2007, the total LPG production in South Asia was 9 Million Metric Tones of which India represented 93% and Pakistan 7%. The total number of official LPG consumers in India was 94 Million and in Pakistan 2 Million. Pakistan & Bangladesh have a more significant City Gas Distribution network than India. Iran Iraq Nepal Bhutan Bangladesh Kuwait Panipat Auraiya Guwahati Qatar UAE Dhaka Oman Vijaypur Saudi Arabia Koyali Jamnagar Myanmar LPG Production by Country, 2007 Disputed Mumbai 0% 0% 0% LPG Production, 2007 Territories 0% 0% Yemen India 0% 7% Pakistan 93% Bangladesh India Source: Pakistan Sri Lanka MoPNG-India, Bangladesh The Dawn- Sri Lanka Maldives Nepal Sri Lanka Pakistan, Nepal RPGCL- Bhutan Bhutan Bangladesh, Afghanistan 2008, CPC - Afghanistan Lanka and Maldives Maldives mtpa Various News Papers) Total: 9 mtpa 0 2 4 6 8 10 © Global InfraSys (P) Ltd. & Asia Consulting Group (P) Ltd. Page 32 The South Asia Power & Energy Study • Multi-Client Study Proposal
    33. Energy Supply: CNG (Transportation Sector) Turkmenistan Afghanistan Pakistan India • In 2007, the total number of vehicles in South Asia was 90 Million out of which 2 Million vehicles were running on CNG. • Pakistan had the highest number of CNG based vehicles, with a 71% share of the total CNG Vehicles in the South Asia region. Iran Islamabad Iraq Lahor Multan Nepal Bhutan Bangladesh Kuwait Delhi Agra Lucknow Qatar Karachi UAE Agartala Oman Vadodara Saudi Arabia Myanmar Surat Vehicles in South Asia: 2007 Disputed 10% CNG Penetration Rate: 2007 Territories Yemen 5% India 2% Hyderabad Pakistan Bangladesh India 68% 15% Pakistan Sri Lanka Bangladesh Nepal Sri Lanka Maldives Sri Lanka Total: Nepal Bhutan 90 Million Bhutan Afghanistan Afghanistan Maldives Maldives Two Wheelers Goods Vehicles Note: Grey is used for 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% Cars, Jeeps & Taxis Buses Others unavailable data. © Global InfraSys (P) Ltd. & Asia Consulting Group (P) Ltd. Page 33 The South Asia Power & Energy Study • Multi-Client Study Proposal
    34. Energy Supply: Nuclear Power Potential Turkmenistan Afghanistan Pakistan India • In 2007, the total installed Nuclear capacity of the South Asia region was 4,515 MW. India's share was 4,120 MW and Pakistan's share was 395 MW. • Bangladesh plans to develop country's first nuclear power plant with a generation capacity between 700 and 1,000 MW at Rooppur. Iran Iraq Chas NUPP Nepal Bhutan Bangladesh Kuwait NATP Qatar Rawatbhata UAE Oman Kakrapar Saudi Arabia Myanmar Disputed Nuclear Power Installed Capacity (2007) Tarapur Territories Yemen India Pakistan Bangladesh Sri Lanka Kaiga Nepal Sri Lanka Maldives Bhutan Afghanistan Kalpakkam Maldives MW 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 NATP- Narora Atomic Power Plant Chas NUPP- Chas Nuclear Power Plant Source: CEA (India), WAPDA (Pakistan) © Global InfraSys (P) Ltd. & Asia Consulting Group (P) Ltd. Page 34 The South Asia Power & Energy Study • Multi-Client Study Proposal
    35. Energy Supply: Coal & Lignite Turkmenistan Afghanistan Pakistan India The South Asian Region, and in particular India, is endowed with some of the largest coal reserves in the world. However, low quality of coal (high ash content), lack of modern mining operations, and coal loss in transportation have made imported coal an attractive option along the coastline of the region. Iran Iraq Nepal Bhutan Bangladesh Kuwait Qatar East & West Raniganj Bokaro Jharia UAE Singrauli Pench-Kanhan, Tawa Valley Oman Saudi Arabia Myanmar Talcher Chanda-Wardha Disputed Godabari Valley Territories Yemen Major Coalfields Sri Lanka Maldives 90% of National Lignite Reserves are in Tamil Nadu © Global InfraSys (P) Ltd. & Asia Consulting Group (P) Ltd. Page 35 The South Asia Power & Energy Study • Multi-Client Study Proposal
    36. Energy Supply: Hydro & Renewable Sources Turkmenistan Afghanistan Pakistan India • The total theoretical Renewable Energy potential of South Asia is estimated 485 GW. • Only 11% (58 GW) of this total potential has been harnessed. • Of the total Renewable installed capacity, hydro power contributed around 80%. • Of the total renewable potential in the region, 51% Iran is based in India. Iraq Nepal Bhutan Bangladesh Kuwait Qatar UAE Oman Saudi Arabia Myanmar Renewable Potential, 2006-07 Disputed Renewables Installed Territories Capacity, 2006-07 India Yemen India Pakistan Pakistan Bangladesh Bangladesh Sri Lanka Hydro Sri Lanka Small Hydro Afghanistan Wind Sri Lanka Maldives Afghanistan Nepal Solar Geothermal Nepal Bhutan Biomass Bhutan Tidal Maldives GW Maldives GW 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 Source: Respective Energy Ministries 0 10 20 30 40 50 © Global InfraSys (P) Ltd. & Asia Consulting Group (P) Ltd. Page 36 The South Asia Power & Energy Study • Multi-Client Study Proposal
    37. G L O B A L I N F R A S Y S ( P ) L TD . & A S I A C O N S U L T I N G G R O U P ( P ) L TD . T HE S OUTH A SIA P OWER & E NERGY S TUDY M U L T I -C L I E N T S T U D Y P R O P O S A L EXECUTIVE SUMMARY & STRATEGIC VALUE ENERGY: SEGMENTS & METHODOLOGY DEMAND POWER: APPROACH & METHODOLOGY SUPPLY TRACK-RECORD & KNOWLEDGE BASE PRICE DELIVERABLES & TIME-LINE COMPETITION REGULATION © Global InfraSys (P) Ltd. & Asia Consulting Group (P) Ltd. Page 37 The South Asia Power & Energy Study • Multi-Client Study Proposal
    38. Energy Price: Power Project Tariff Parameters ACG State MoD's typically include detailed analysis of 70-100 Projects. Each Project Tariff profile is developed from 1991-2030 (ie. 40 Year Data Stream) & 6 Matrices. ACG's State MoD thus represents about 14-21,000 Data Points. © Global InfraSys (P) Ltd. & Asia Consulting Group (P) Ltd. Page 38 The South Asia Power & Energy Study • Multi-Client Study Proposal
    39. Energy Price: Power Tariff Forecasts ACG will conduct Spark-Spread Assessments Based on detailed analysis of Variable Cost For Purchase of Thermal Power. Trend Based Market Sustainable Gas / LNG Price Projections $/MMBTU 5.00 4.50 • Dampening 4.00 of the variable cost • Ramp up in 3.50 of power the variable purchase cost of component power 3.00 has been purchase observed. component across all the 2.50 states. 2.00 Projections are based on the historical trend of the variable cost of power purchase for the Primary drivers: years 1997-2008, as they are realistic and - Inability of the state utility 1.50 reflective of the evolving market conditions. to sustain high tariffs - regulator directives 1.00 0.50 0.00 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 Year © Global InfraSys (P) Ltd. & Asia Consulting Group (P) Ltd. Page 39 The South Asia Power & Energy Study • Multi-Client Study Proposal
    40. Energy Price: Oil Linked Product Projections The Variable Tariff (Energy Charge) of projects* is linked to the projection of International Crude Oil Prices & the resultant basic fuel price derived from the $/bbl & $/MMBtu value of the fuel. As Oil is US$ denominated the energy charge (in Rs./KWhr) is also dependent on the Rs. Depreciation Projection. ACG Fuel Price Projections: MoD Tariff Bands Naphtha Liquid fuels LNG Gas * Excluding Hydro & Coal, Lignite & Nuclear Projects © Global InfraSys (P) Ltd. & Asia Consulting Group (P) Ltd. Page 40 The South Asia Power & Energy Study • Multi-Client Study Proposal
    41. Energy Price: Spark Spread Methodology ACG will provide a reference for Energy & Gas prices that would sustain the projected demand in each state. In addition, ACG will develop a Spark Spread Assessment for each state clearly identifying the driving factors (Current & Projected) behind the differential between Electricity & Energy / Gas Prices. ACG has developed a rigorous methodology to establish the LNG/Gas competitive price for each target state. Sector Background Frame Dynamics Projections (2008-2030 Period) Client Market Projected LNG/Gas Price Range by State Review of Historical Developments Project Dynamics Situation Projected LNG-Gas Drivers & Prices Projects Review of Historical Developments Analysis Re INR Projected Re. Devaluation: x%/annum Forex Review of Historical Re - $ Value Analysis Key Projected Oil Benchmark: $x- $y/bbl Oil Review of Historical 30 Year Prices Industry Projections Historical State Cost /Unit Quotes: Projected Sustainable Tariff in 2008-09 Tariff Range Power Historical State Revenue /Unit of IPP & Reform Based Revenue Realization Trend New Project Base: Coal Variable Cost /Unit Policy Projected deregulation of Fertilizer Industry Fertilizer Review: Historical Price Mechanics Measures & Plans © Global InfraSys (P) Ltd. & Asia Consulting Group (P) Ltd. Page 41 The South Asia Power & Energy Study • Multi-Client Study Proposal
    42. G L O B A L I N F R A S Y S ( P ) L TD . & A S I A C O N S U L T I N G G R O U P ( P ) L TD . T HE S OUTH A SIA P OWER & E NERGY S TUDY M U L T I -C L I E N T S T U D Y P R O P O S A L EXECUTIVE SUMMARY & STRATEGIC VALUE ENERGY: SEGMENTS & METHODOLOGY DEMAND POWER: APPROACH & METHODOLOGY SUPPLY TRACK-RECORD & KNOWLEDGE BASE PRICE DELIVERABLES & TIME-LINE COMPETITION REGULATION © Global InfraSys (P) Ltd. & Asia Consulting Group (P) Ltd. Page 42 The South Asia Power & Energy Study • Multi-Client Study Proposal
    43. Power & Energy Markets: Inter-Fuel Substitution ACG will conduct an Inter-Fuel Substitution assessment for all target states for the near and long term ( a 5 year and a 15 year horizon) including all possible fuels for power generation in the state. 2 3 Competing Energy Projects Net Impact of Dynamics Identification & Profiling of all major energy Lower Energy Prices projects in the market domain. Competition Price Gas Fields Pipelines Direct Impact • Guaranteed: Inter & Intra - Price LNG Terminals Pipelines IRR Fuel - Offtake Liquid Fuels Refineries Pipelines Substitution • Change of Law Protection Demand Supply Coal - Lignite Mines & Jetties Transport Renewables Sources In-Situ Competitive Despatch Electricity MoD Based Impact Electricity: Merit Order Despatch Generation Stack Other Sectors: Merit Order Despatch Stacks 1 New Capacity Plants shifting Fertilizer Sector to alternate fuel Turning to Extra investment alternate fuels Industry to handle dual High energy fuel consuming & Domestic polluting nature High investment of past fuel set. • High price cost Installed Base Transport • low conversion factor Higher subsidy PetroChem burden Higher cost of production © Global InfraSys (P) Ltd. & Asia Consulting Group (P) Ltd. Page 43 The South Asia Power & Energy Study • Multi-Client Study Proposal
    44. Power & Energy Markets by State: Quantum & Price ACG will determine the quantum and landed price of all potential Energy sources in each state by conducting two sets of analysis based on a systematic 7 step cumulative approach: • State and regional aggregation of gas demand-supply • Gas price and demand sensitivity analysis. Illustrative Approach for Gas/LNG Assessment Gas Based Capacity Addition Projection Power Despatch Pipeline Network Assessment 1 4 6 Risk Assessment by State 2 Imputed Value: Natural Gas & LNG State: Regional Power Energy / Gas Demand & 5 7 Trade Assessment Price Sensitivity Quantum & Price MMTPA Cost Of Generation: 3 LNG, Gas, FO & Naphtha A B C D E F State $3/MMBtu $4.5/MMBtu $4/MMBtu © Global InfraSys (P) Ltd. & Asia Consulting Group (P) Ltd. Page 44 The South Asia Power & Energy Study • Multi-Client Study Proposal
    45. G L O B A L I N F R A S Y S ( P ) L TD . & A S I A C O N S U L T I N G G R O U P ( P ) L TD . T HE S OUTH A SIA P OWER & E NERGY S TUDY M U L T I -C L I E N T S T U D Y P R O P O S A L EXECUTIVE SUMMARY & STRATEGIC VALUE ENERGY: SEGMENTS & METHODOLOGY DEMAND POWER: APPROACH & METHODOLOGY SUPPLY TRACK-RECORD & KNOWLEDGE BASE PRICE DELIVERABLES & TIME-LINE COMPETITION REGULATION © Global InfraSys (P) Ltd. & Asia Consulting Group (P) Ltd. Page 45 The South Asia Power & Energy Study • Multi-Client Study Proposal
    46. Policy & Regulatory Reform Assessment ACG will conduct a Policy & Regulatory Reform Assessment of all Countries & States in the South Asian region. Privatization 1 IPP Evolution 2 Restructuring 3 Generation 4 Transmission 5 Distribution 6 Demand Risk 1 2 3 4 5 6 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 IPP Program Starts Ist IPP Commissioned IPPs Scheduled for Commissioning No IPP Plans Concept Plans Implementation Partial Implementation Listing on Stock Exchange Risk Level Greenfield Shortage IPP IPP Share in 1994-1997 Plans for: Surplus IPP Share in High Private 2002 Listing Additional Demand Generation 1998-2005 Medium 2005 IPP/Private Greenfield Exports Traded Balance Others 2010 Low Implementation © Global InfraSys (P) Ltd. & Asia Consulting Group (P) Ltd. Page 46 The South Asia Power & Energy Study • Multi-Client Study Proposal
    47. Policy & Regulatory Reform: Timelines ACG will develop comparative Policy & Regulatory Reform Timelines for all Countries & States in the South Asia region. Key Stages 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 1. Studies for Uttar Pradesh Northern Region unbundling / Punjab Corporatization Rajasthan 2. Unbundling/ Himachal Pradesh Corporatization implementation Jammu & Kashmir 3. Drawing up a Delhi financial restructuring Haryana plan including Maharashtra valuation of assets & Western Region liabilities (Funded & Gujarat * Non-funded) Madhya Pradesh 4. Distribution Goa Reforms Andhra Pradesh Southern Region 5. Initiated measures for reducing T&D Tamil Nadu losses. Karnataka 6. Creation of * Kerala * distribution zones / Pondicherry companies 7. Distribution West Bengal Eastern Region Privatization Orissa Legend Consultants Bihar Appointed Sikkim Study North Eastern Region Assam Illustrative: Conducted Meghalaya Unbundling & India SEB Restructuring: Summary Manipur Corporatization 1995-2001 Tripura Distribution zones Arunachal Pradesh Distribution Mizoram privatization Nagaland Madhya Pradesh includes Chattisgarh & Bihar includes Jharkhand * Profit Centre © Global InfraSys (P) Ltd. & Asia Consulting Group (P) Ltd. Page 47 The South Asia Power & Energy Study • Multi-Client Study Proposal
    48. State/Province Level Utility & Project Profiles ACG will develop Profiles for each Utility & all major Projects under development in each State/Province. State & Utility Analysis State Electricity Merit Order Despatch Assessment State Macro Analysis Installed Base Analysis Demand & Sensitivity Analysis • State Overview Sensitivity: Installed Capacity by Primary Fuel • Power Demand Indicators Demand-Supply Projections Installed Base by Project Type • Power Demand Forecasts - Central, State, Private, IPP Escrow Analysis • State Finances New Projects Analysis Escrow Issues Utility Restructuring Escrow Issues Timeline New Projects by Type • Restructuring Timeline - Historical - Central, State, Private, IPP Sustainable Capacity Analysis • Restructuring Timeline - Forecasted New Projects - High Rating • Net Cash Available For • Unbundling & Corporatization New Projects - Medium Rating Incremental Power Purchases • Privatization New Project Ratings & Profiles • Greenfield Capacity Sustainable • Distribution Privatization by Utility Finances Profiles - High Rated Projects • Financial Grants & Loans • Effect of Captive On Profiles - Medium Rated Projects Utility Reform Initiatives Sustainable New Capacity Captive Power Analysis • Utility Initiatives For Reforms - Historical • Sustainable New Capacity • Captive Power • Utility Initiatives For Reforms - Forecasted Under Various Scenarios Capacity & Generation Regulatory Authority - Regulatory Issues Regulator Impact on Competition • Captive Power Ratings • Regulatory Timeline - Historical & Supply Projections SERC Mandate, Orders • Regulatory Timeline - Forecasted SERC Court Cases Combined Power Capacity Analysis Review of Utility Financials Merit Order Despatch Simulation Installed & Projected New Capacity by • Utility/Corporatized Utility Cost Structure - Sector & by Fuel • Merit-Order Position: • Operating vs Total Cost Current Generation Power Tariff Analysis • Rate of Power Purchase • Anticipated Merit-Order Position: Cost of Generation & Quoted Tariffs • Revenue Realization & Unit Cost Existing & New Projects Revenue Realization Vs Tariff • Receivables To Sales Revenue Unit Cost Comparisons • Number of Days Receivable • Days Receivables & Collection Efficiency High Confidence Power Project: IPP Evolution & Regulatory Risk • Power Purchase Coverage Ratio • Electricity Despatch Assessment • Interest Coverage Ratio • IPP Participation 1991-Present Electricity Payment Risk Assessment • Commercial Profit / Loss • IPP Exit Analysis • Energy Offtake Assessment • Rate of Return on Capital • IPP Projected Participation Forecasted Energy Payment Risk Assessment • Additional Revenue Required For x% RoR • Regulatory Risk To IPPs • Fuel Switch & Contract Default Potential • State Subsidy Dependence © Global InfraSys (P) Ltd. & Asia Consulting Group (P) Ltd. Page 48 The South Asia Power & Energy Study • Multi-Client Study Proposal
    49. G L O B A L I N F R A S Y S ( P ) L TD . & A S I A C O N S U L T I N G G R O U P ( P ) L TD . T HE S OUTH A SIA P OWER & E NERGY S TUDY M U L T I -C L I E N T S T U D Y P R O P O S A L EXECUTIVE SUMMARY & STRATEGIC VALUE ENERGY: SEGMENTS & METHODOLOGY POWER: APPROACH & METHODOLOGY TRACK-RECORD & KNOWLEDGE BASE DELIVERABLES & TIME-LINE © Global InfraSys (P) Ltd. & Asia Consulting Group (P) Ltd. Page 49 The South Asia Power & Energy Study • Multi-Client Study Proposal
    50. ACG Merit Order Despatch Methodology ACG has developed a 5 phase methodology to reliably conduct Merit Order Despatch Analysis of power projects. Phase I Phase II Phase III Phase IV Phase V Broad Accounting for Detailed Generation & Detailed Tariff Merit Order Despatch: Merit Order Despatch: Historical Generation by System Energy Availability Assessment by Plant: High & Medium Rated Low Rated Projects by Plant: 1991-2008 Check 2007-08 Installed & New Projects: 2008-2013 Fuel: 2014-2030 Medium Term Demand Forecast Base System Generation • Tariff • Capacity • Generation † Push Market Pull Market 1 Low Rated: 1 Base: Official 1 State based utility 1 Official Base: Cost 1 High Rated Projects 2014-2030 + Generation & MW Power Generation of Power by Fuel Generation Low Energy Cost Timeframe: 2 Actual Generation 2 Central & Inter-State 2 Actual Tariff Enabled New Plants 2008-2009 & MW by Plant via Power Purchase by Plant via ACG's (Scenarios) 2 Medium Rated ACG's NPT Inclusion NPT based Review Projects Generation 2 Success Rating 3 Default Generation 3 IPP Power Generation 3 Default Tariff Timeframe: Assumptions & & MW by Plant via Assessment by Plant via 20010-2013 Scenarios Calculation of Analysis of 3 Normative 3 Fuel Based Remaining Remaining Plants 4 Captive Power Generation Clubbed MW Generation by Clubbed by Fuel Subtracted From Assumption Approach. Plants Clubbed by Grid Demand 4 Calculated Tariff Fuel (Later Stage) 4 Overlay of Official by Plant for 4 Normative & Revised ACG Selected Projects. Generation Demand Forecast Assumption © Global InfraSys (P) Ltd. & Asia Consulting Group (P) Ltd. Page 50 The South Asia Power & Energy Study • Multi-Client Study Proposal
    51. Power Project & Asset: MoD Validation ACG will Profile & Rate all New & Planned Power Projects for opportunity Assessment based on a Merit Order Dispatch (MoD) Assessment of each State. 40000 200000 MW GWhr Project Rated MoD Validated 180000 35000 Generation (GWhr) = Energy Market (Q Btu) Capacity (MW) 160000 30000 140000 25000 120000 20000 100000 80000 15000 60000 10000 40000 5000 20000 0 0 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 Capacity (MW) & Generation Legend • Project Success Potential 1991-2007 Utility & ACG Historical Data Project Status Evaluation of • Expected Commissioning Dates 2008-2013 ACG Rated Projects* • PPA • Tariff Despatch Risk • Project Cost & Proposed Tariffs 2014-2030 ACG Long Range Projection • FSA • Finances for Client's • Regulator Tariff Orders • Clearances • Escrow projects * High & Medium Success Potential Only • Position in MOD stack Medium Term Demand Forecast Base System Generation • Tariff • Capacity • Generation † Push Market Pull Market © Global InfraSys (P) Ltd. & Asia Consulting Group (P) Ltd. Page 51 The South Asia Power & Energy Study • Multi-Client Study Proposal
    52. Power Project Profiles & Rating ACG will Review & Profile all new Power Projects in the South Asia Region. ACG will conduct an MoD based Risk Assessment & Success Potential Rating for all significant projects under planning. State Power Forecast Overview Offical vs. ACG Forecasts 1 State Power: Power Projects: Installed 2 Note: Liquid fuel based projects are also to be Key Parameters: covered in step 2 & 3 • Project Name • Project Capacity (MW) • Specific Fuel State Power: Power Projects: 3 • Developer or Operator Under Consideration & Planning (Rated for Success) • Developer Type • Project Success Rating • Project Merit Position • Long Range Anchored Projections © Global InfraSys (P) Ltd. & Asia Consulting Group (P) Ltd. Page 52 The South Asia Power & Energy Study • Multi-Client Study Proposal
    53. Power Demand: Independent Forecasts ACG will develop independent forecasts for all Power & Energy sectors in all States in South Asia. Offical Data & Forecasts ACG's National Power & Energy Model (India) Historical Data Present Demand Forecasts vs CEA General Review 2002 CEA 14th EPS CEA General Review March 1991 2003 CEA 15th EPS July 1995 CEA 16th EPS September 2000 Tariff Schedules 2003 Power Sector Demand Assessment Components • Growth in demand by specific segments/markets/regions • Incremental capacity needed (Both Peak & Energy Demand Forecasts) ACG invested 20 Man-Years of R&D to develop its • CEA 14th, 15th, 16th and 17th Survey Comparisons with Proprietary National Power & Energy Model in 1995-1997. ACG Indepedent State Level Power Demand forecasts Since then ACG has constantly updated its Databases & • Current demand (existing plants' capacity, utilization and fuels) Models to be able to provide clients Strategic Superiority in • Operational Factors: Plant Renovation & Modernization & the Indian Power Market. Fuel Switch Potential ACG forecasts, published in 1996, are within + - 5% of • Power pricing and gas price that can be justified at plant gate Market Reality today. CEA: Central Electricity Authority EPS: Electric Power Survey of India © Global InfraSys (P) Ltd. & Asia Consulting Group (P) Ltd. Page 53 The South Asia Power & Energy Study • Multi-Client Study Proposal
    54. Power Demand Forecasts: Impact on Sectors Power Forecasts impact several other key areas of Load Planning, Transmission, Energy and Transportation at both the macro & project levels. Demand Forecasts Impact on Sector CEA EPS Power Transmission Energy 14th, 15th & 16th Fuel Map of India 4th National Power Plan 1997-2012 India's Petroleum Demand Projections Transmission Perspective Plan 2006 2011-2012 CEA: Central Electricity Authority EPS: Electric Power Survey of India © Global InfraSys (P) Ltd. & Asia Consulting Group (P) Ltd. Page 54 The South Asia Power & Energy Study • Multi-Client Study Proposal
    55. Power Demand: ACG Forecast Methodology ACG Forecasts Review & Rectify the Official Forecasts at the First Stage of Analysis as both: - Official Historical Data & - Official Forecast Data are highly unreliable. • ACG Review of all Official Forecasts 14th, 15th, 16th & 17th • ACG Analysis of Errors Detected & Official Data Implications. For ALL 12 Consumption Categories: • ACG Review of Category wise electricity consumption & Official Forecasts. • ACG Analysis of Errors Detected & Official Data Implications. • Growth Rate Analysis • ACG Forecast by Category • ACG Integration of Forecasts by all 12 Categories of Electricity Consumption. • Trend & Implication Assessment • ACG Baseline Demand = Average of Category wise Summation & ACG Trendline Forecast • ACG Shortage Adjusted Forecast (Add Actual Recorded Shortages To Baseline Demand) • ACG Grid Demand Forecast (Subtract New Captive Power Forecast From Shortage Adjusted Demand) © Global InfraSys (P) Ltd. & Asia Consulting Group (P) Ltd. Page 55 The South Asia Power & Energy Study • Multi-Client Study Proposal
    56. G L O B A L I N F R A S Y S ( P ) L TD . & A S I A C O N S U L T I N G G R O U P ( P ) L TD . T HE S OUTH A SIA P OWER & E NERGY S TUDY M U L T I -C L I E N T S T U D Y P R O P O S A L EXECUTIVE SUMMARY & STRATEGIC VALUE ENERGY: SEGMENTS & METHODOLOGY POWER: APPROACH & METHODOLOGY TRACK-RECORD & KNOWLEDGE BASE DELIVERABLES & TIME-LINE © Global InfraSys (P) Ltd. & Asia Consulting Group (P) Ltd. Page 56 The South Asia Power & Energy Study • Multi-Client Study Proposal
    57. ACG Track-Record: Client Mandates ACG's Track Record in the Power & Energy Sectors spans the entire range of Projects & Markets in the Region. Category Client Type Project Outline Geo/State Scope Energy Revision of India Hydrocarbon Vision 2025 for FICCI All India + India Energy Sectors Revised: Oil & Gas, Power, National Strategy All Energy Sectors Western, Southern, Market Study & Complete Feasibility, Risk and LNG Terminals Eastern Regions Price Positioning of LNG Terminals HBJ + Eastern Region Market Study & Complete Feasibility, Risk and Gas Pipelines + 2 International Price Positioning of Gas Pipelines All India + Market Study & Power Customer Fuel Switch Potential & Liquid Fuels Western India Positioning (All Liquid Fuels) Delhi & Mumbai Market Assessment & Long Range Forecasts LPG & CNG (5 Southern States) Domestic (LPG) & Transportation (CNG) All India + Market Study & Power Customer Fuel Competitive Position Coal & Lignite Western India (Imported vs. Domestic Coal) Power Market Study, Project Feasibility & Risk Assessment. All India + Merit Order Despatch Merit Order Despatch Assessment • Project Valuation (10 States) Power Project Selection Criteria & Portfolio Planning All India + Portfolio Strategy Asset Acquisition & Divesting Strategy & Valuation (All States) All India + State Support & Guarantee Review & Escrow Assessment Escrow Assessment (5 States) Assessment of Alternate Payment Risk Mitigation Models All India + 'Regulatory Reform • Full Flight Simulators (Power Demand, Power Sector Reform Supply, Pricing and System Planning) • State Support Assessment (All States) Market Study, Regulatory Reform, Demand Forecast, Opportunity 25 Asian Power Market Countries Assessment, Energy Matrix, Power Pools and Markets. All India Market Study and Projections of Demand for Gas & Naphtha Fertilizer Fuel Market Potential under a range of fuel availability and pricing conditions. Client Type Fortune 500 + Global World Bank + USAID + Global Multi- National Chambers of Energy & Power Majors IDFC + Financial Institutions Client Study Commerce & Industry © Global InfraSys (P) Ltd. & Asia Consulting Group (P) Ltd. Page 57 The South Asia Power & Energy Study • Multi-Client Study Proposal
    58. ACG Power & Energy Knowledge Systems ACG's Knowledge Systems Track the entire array of Power & Energy Projects and the Investment Environment in South Asia and will serve as a comprehensive source of information and analytical value for client Strategic Planning. • Client management is faced with an array of executive decisions as it implements its investment vision for India and South Asia. CLIENT STRATEGIC ADVISORY & SUPPORT • ACG has developed an advanced understanding of the Power & Energy sectors that can provide clients a formidable competitive advantage. These areas include: - Feasibility, Competition & Risk Assessment - Real-Time Custom Strategic Advisory - Methodological Support - Custom Workshops - Sector Insight Modules - Models, Databases and Information Support • Outline of ACG's Project Tracking in India & South Asia ACG KNOWLEDGE BASE (8,000+ Projects) STRATEGIC ADVISORY • Power Projects - Government (State and Central Utility) - Private Utilities METHODOLOGY - IPPs & Captive Power Projects WORKSHOPS • Energy Projects (Fuel) - Coal, LNG, Gas Energy Offtake Sectors SECTOR INSIGHT - Fertilizer - Petro-Chemicals MODELS • Transportation - Ports & Shipping DATABASES - Roads, Highways, Toll-Roads - Railways INFORMATION - Airways & Airlines • Economic & Household Income Analysis © Global InfraSys (P) Ltd. & Asia Consulting Group (P) Ltd. Page 58 The South Asia Power & Energy Study • Multi-Client Study Proposal
    59. ACG Data Collection & Validation Methodology In developing its South Asia specific Power & Energy Resources ACG has leveraged over 500 sources of information. • The study will gather data from an exhaustive array of sources to form the basis of the study. These include but are not limited to: - Secondary Sources: Official data, market information, existing databases and media information - Primary Sources: Interviews with stakeholders, interaction with various ministries, key government departments and private companies. Data Collection • ACG has conducted over 1,000 primary interviews and maintains extensive contact information databases to Primary enable rapid identification and execution of primary interviews and surveys. • ACG will leverage the combination of its substantial internal proprietary databases and ALL secondary sources Secondary of information to procure the necessary data for the mandate. Data Sources ACG Proprietary • ACG has over 100 databases on South Asia and will leverage these to the maximum in the ACG study. On-Line Databases • ACG will access all on-line and CD based information sources to procure data and information for the mandate. Special Reports • ACG will access all industry specific reports that provide specialized insight into the power and energy sectors. Public Domain • ACG will conduct extensive research through Central & State government publications and data sources . Data Validation Multiple Sources • ACG will ensure the accuracy of data and information by procuring it though several different sources. In situations of conflicting data or information, ACG will conduct primary research to establish validation. Triangulation • ACG has devised special methodologies to validate the data and information via cross-checks, triangulation, parallel model building etc. All of these will be utilized to ensure the reliability of the base information and data. © Global InfraSys (P) Ltd. & Asia Consulting Group (P) Ltd. Page 59 The South Asia Power & Energy Study • Multi-Client Study Proposal
    60. ACG Key Resources Relevant to Study ACG possesses a formidable array of resources (Databases, Models and Studies) that will be leveraged towards the South Asia study. ACG databases are designed for Total Tracking, Evaluation & Success Rating of constituent projects. Ongoing R&D to Ensure Total Sector ACG Database Macro Scope Coverage Sector ACG Database Macro Scope 100 Fertilizer Projects 6,400+ Power Fertilizer Fertilizer Track National Project Track Power Projects 25+ Energy Intensity Industry Industry Track State Regulatory Track 20+ States Studies 60,000+ Power & Energy Energy News Business Journals LNG Track 25+ Terminals News Items. Gas Pipeline Track 250+ Segments ACG Knowledge Management System Refinery Track 35+ Refineries Coal Track 1,400+ Seams Services ACG Network Strategy Intelligence Implementation Scope Project Project Simulator Databases Models State Simulators State Power Model National Research Project Country National Power Model Track Asia-Wide Asia Scope © Global InfraSys (P) Ltd. & Asia Consulting Group (P) Ltd. Page 60 The South Asia Power & Energy Study • Multi-Client Study Proposal
    61. ACG Knowledge Base: Overview ACG has designed & developed a formidable proprietary arsenal of over 400 (on-line) resources over the past 13 years. • Models (50+) ACG India R&D Overview • 100 GB+ • 100,000+ Files • Methodologies (110+) Demand By Technology & Fuel Supply By Fuel & Mode • R&D Studies (125+) • Tracking Systems (20+) • Coal / Lignite • Gas / LNG • Liquid Fuels: Diesel, FO/LSHS, Naphtha, LPG, SKO • Hydro • Renewables • Databases (Main) (100+) Power T&D Industry & Sectors Transport Energy (Fuels) • Crude Availability • Industry • Commercial Models • National Power Model - Iron & Steel - Office • POL Production • Electricity Pricing Model • Load Flow - Aluminium - Shops • System • Capacity • Oil Bill & Forex Reserves • SEB Model - Textile - Hotels / Restaurants & • Production Planning • Escrow Model - Sugar - Cinema Halls Growth - Lignite - Fertilizer - Hospitals - Open Cast - Cement - Educational - Chemical - Others - Underground - Mineral Oil • Domestic • Liquid Fuel Supply - Petroleum - Households • Shipping R&D Studies - Paper • LNG Terminals - Income Analysis • Ports - Non Ferrous • Supply Projections • State Grid • Oil &Gas • Appliances: • Railways - Light Engineering • Auto-Rating • Inter-State • Coal - Production - Jute • Aviation • Auto-Analysis • Grid - • Washeries - Purchase - Automobile • Auto-Location Restrictions - Intensity Analysis - Electrical Engineering • Railways (ACs, TVs, Bulbs, • Coal - Heavy Engineering Reserves Freight & Tubes, Fans & - Rubber • Crude Production Refrigerators etc.) Lines - Collieries • Gas NPT Suite Fields Analysis - Food Products • Agriculture Overview • National Project Track Linkage • Pipelines - Plastic - Production • Ports • T&D • Historical Log - Mining & Quarrying - Pumpsets Database • Oil & Gas Project • Connection - Beverages & Tobacco - Irrigation Patterns • Aviation Track • LNG Terminals - Cotton • Communicator • Traction & Airline - Wool & Silk • Fuel Price & News Track • Primary Research - Rail Length & Traffic - Miscellaneous • 1,400 Coal Seams Other Key Databases • Ports • 450 + Mines 6,500 Projects Micro-View -11 Major • 13 + 21 Refineries • 2,000+ Databases - 500,000 MW National (i) -140 Minor Asia - Global • 20 LNG Terminals Lines, • IPPs • Primary Research Track by • Asia Projects Track • 206 + 30 Pipelines Sub - • Government • 14th, 15th, 16th, 17th CEA Survey - Capacity • Global Gas Turbines • Gas Fields (All) Stations, • Captive / Cogeneration • Power Policy Track - Commodity • World Oil & Gas • Oil Fields (All) Reactors (Installed & Proposed) • State Databases • ACG Contact Database (x Installed + y Proposed) National (ii) Multi-Media / Graphics • 40 MB • 22 MB • 2,200 Fields / Project • 60 • ASI Consumption by Industry • ACG Digital Maps • 150 Fields / Project for Specifications • 220 MB Database Fields / • Indian Market Demographics • ACG GIS System Coal and Oil & Gas • 23,000 Information Logs Project • Business Journals (1995-2008) • State Grid Maps Databases • Census (1971, 1981, 1991, 2001) • ACG Line Art • 20 Fields / Project for LNG Terminals Track & ACG Research & Information National Pipelines Track © Global InfraSys (P) Ltd. & Asia Consulting Group (P) Ltd. Page 61 The South Asia Power & Energy Study • Multi-Client Study Proposal
    62. ACG Asia Knowledge Base: 45 Countries* ACG's Power & Energy \"Standardized-Comparative\" Knowledge Base spans all the 45 Countries & Territories of Asia. * And Territories China Asia Power 2000 Scope By Design Japan • The Ultimate Sourcebook • 25 Countries Value India • Strategic Planning Handbook • 35 Man Project Team • Corporate Planning • Foundation for Market Planning • 8 Months Project Time Australia • Country Evaluation • Forecasts for the Continent • 100+ Expert Interviews • Comparative Analysis South Korea • 25 Country Expert Advisors • Trends & Forecasts Taiwan • 1,500 Man Days to Execute • Market Strategy • 2.5 Months Field Research Indonesia • Portfolio Strategy • 250 + Sources of Information • Project Feasibility Thailand Graphic Slides: 2,000+ • Risk Evaluation Pakistan Forecast Models: 10+ Hong Kong Beneficiaries Malaysia Analysis: 150 Modules • Project Developers Philippines • Electric Utilities Databases: 20+ New Zealand CD Concentration: ~100 MB+ • Financial Institutions Singapore Research Pages: 100,000 • Equity Participants Vietnam Source Titles: 250+ • Multilateral Agencies Source Information: 750 MB+ Bangladesh Issues: 1,250+ • Equipment Suppliers Scale Sri Lanka • Fuel Suppliers 1 Month Myanmar Database Years Line Items Data Points • EPC Contractors • AP2000 Main Database 20 30,000 600,000 Mongolia • O&M Contractors • Power & Energy Database 18 6,400 115,000 ACG Proprietary Sources P.N. Guinea • Service Providers • Event Timeline Track (Text) 25 4,200 15,000 • Consulting Firms Bhutan • Asia Power Projects Track 50 13,000 50,000 • Law Firms Nepal • China-India Provincial Database 25 200 5,000 • China-India Project Database 50 9000 900,000 • Government Agencies Laos • Power & Energy Investment Track 20 100 2,000 • Asian Associations Fiji • Asian Power & Energy News Track 10 8,000 30,000 • Economic Planners Cambodia • Power & Energy Project News 5 35,000 35,000 • Research Institutions www.acg-asia.com Total ~100,000 ~1,750,000 © Global InfraSys (P) Ltd. & Asia Consulting Group (P) Ltd. Page 62 The South Asia Power & Energy Study • Multi-Client Study Proposal
    63. G L O B A L I N F R A S Y S ( P ) L TD . & A S I A C O N S U L T I N G G R O U P ( P ) L TD . T HE S OUTH A SIA P OWER & E NERGY S TUDY M U L T I -C L I E N T S T U D Y P R O P O S A L EXECUTIVE SUMMARY & STRATEGIC VALUE ENERGY: SEGMENTS & METHODOLOGY POWER: APPROACH & METHODOLOGY TRACK-RECORD & KNOWLEDGE BASE DELIVERABLES & TIME-LINE © Global InfraSys (P) Ltd. & Asia Consulting Group (P) Ltd. Page 63 The South Asia Power & Energy Study • Multi-Client Study Proposal
    64. The South Asia Study: Scope & Delivery Format The South Asia Power & Energy Study will be in the form of 2,500* Boardroom ready Presentation Slides in an Integrated Secure pdf file that is Client Customized and Passworded. Data-streams will be provided in Excel format. The Study will be delivered on a client customized CD. * Estimated Power Fertilizer Industry Residential Transport Overview & Business Model Regulatory Environment Recent Significant Developments Policy Issues & Future Outlook Energy Demand Forecasts Energy Demand Forecasts Historical Current Project State Base Supply Constraint & Fuel Switch Dynamics Analysis State Based Based Forecast Competition Dynamics Adjusted Forecast Power Fertilizer Industry Residential Transport © Global InfraSys (P) Ltd. & Asia Consulting Group (P) Ltd. Page 64 The South Asia Power & Energy Study • Multi-Client Study Proposal
    65. The South Asia Study: Updates & Client Options Clients have the option to Signup for Quarterly, Bi-Annual or Annual Updates. The Minimum Duration of the Update Contract is 1 Year and Maximum is 2 Years. Discounts are based on Update Frequency & Duration of Contract. Study Execution Updates Annual Bi-Annual Quarterly Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Jan-Feb-Mar Apr-May-Jun Jul-Aug-Sep Oct-Nov-Dec 2008 2009 2010 2011 © Global InfraSys (P) Ltd. & Asia Consulting Group (P) Ltd. Page 65 The South Asia Power & Energy Study • Multi-Client Study Proposal

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