GIS ACG Firm Profile Global Power Energy Strategy Global InfraSys Asia Consulting Group

GLOBAL INFRASYS (P) LTD. & ASIA CONSULTING GROUP (P) LTD. FIRM OVERVIEW & GLOBAL STRATEGY SERVICES POWER & ENERGY Vision To be the World's Leading Global Strategic Advisor to the Power, Energy & Infrastructure Industries. Mission To Empower Clients with the Ultimate Competitive Advantage & Investment Decision Analysis through Superior Strategic Planning, Forecasting, Risk Evaluation Services and Information Technology Solutions. www.globalinfrasys.com mailto:query.gis.acg@gmail.com www.acg-asia.com Jan 2009 © Global InfraSys (P) Ltd. & Asia Consulting Group (P) Ltd. Page 1 GIS-ACG Global Strategy Services: Power & Energy

GLOBAL INFRASYS (P) LTD. & ASIA CONSULTING GROUP (P) LTD. FIRM OVERVIEW & GLOBAL STRATEGY SERVICES POWER & ENERGY FIRM OVERVIEW GLOBAL STRATEGY SERVICES STRATEGIC SYSTEMS & SIMULATORS COUNTRY & ASSET STUDIES MANAGEMENT & TEAM © Global InfraSys (P) Ltd. & Asia Consulting Group (P) Ltd. Page 2 GIS-ACG Global Strategy Services: Power & Energy

Strategic Services & Systems: A Paradigm Shift GIS-ACG Global Strategic Services & Systems are based on 5 Proprietary Global Models, 195 base National Master Plans, 3 Strategic Systems & 7 Levels of Country & Asset Assessment. These are powered by 11 Years of Comprehensive R&D. GIS-ACG provides clients the highest value by migrating from strategic studies to 3 Strategic Systems. 5 Global Models 11 Years of R&D * Emissions* Carbon Oil Trading Gas Power Transport =∑ Economic & Political-Policy = 7 Levels of ∑ Country & Asset Assessment The 5 Global Models are based 3 Strategic Systems on the aggregation of 195 base National Master Plans. 195 National Master Plans Market Strategic Systems Merchant Project Simulators =∑ =∑ © Global InfraSys (P) Ltd. & Asia Consulting Group (P) Ltd. Page 3 GIS-ACG Global Strategy Services: Power & Energy

Clients: Global Power & Energy Leaders GIS-ACG clients include top Global Corporations in Power & Energy. GIS-ACG has allied with leading industry & strategy consulting players on key projects. Its participation in International Conferences & the Press is unparalleled. Multi-Client Studies Clients (RFP Qualified) Industry Press Articles/Quotes Conference Presentations South Asia Power & Energy Study AES Reuters PG Power Gen Asia '95 PG Power Gen Americas '95 Asia Power 2000 Study Boston Pacific Dow Jones Newswire PG Power Gen Asia '96 IBF Independent E. NY '96 Asia Power Risk Workshop EPON AP (Associated Press) CII National Conference '96 CBI In. Fin. NY Jan'97 South Asia Gas Study Fluor Daniel Petroleum Argus AIC Asia Power Feb'97 CBI IPP India DC Mar'97 India KG Gas Study GEC Alsthom COOSP Cogen Onsite Power PGA - Power Sing Sept97 IBC - MEGas Dubai Oct97 India Hydrocarbon Vision 2025 Gujarat Ambuja World Cogeneration AIC - Proj. Risk Sing Dec97 AIC Asia Power Sing Feb '98 Asian Energy Infrastructure Gujarat Torrent Power Engineering Int. IBC - LNG Risk WS KLApr '98 PG Asia Delhi '98 IL & FS Asian Energy IBC MEGAS Abu Dhabi Oct'98 IBC MEGAS '98 Clients (Power - Gas - LNG) Jubilant Enpro Asian Power AIC Singapore 1999 MEGAS '99 Lebanon 1999 British Gas Panda Energy The Observer PGA'99 Present FF Ver 1999 PGI 99 New Orleans 1999 Caltex PowerGen Independent Energy TERI - IDFC Delhi 1999 ABF Power in Asia Mar 2000 Chevron Reliance Powerline AIC Singapore 2000 IBC MEGAS Qatar 2000 ElectroGen Repsol Business India TERI Conference 2000 PL Fut Indian Power 4 Apr00 Escorts Skoda Business Standard ABF Asia Power Sing Nov 01 FICCI LNG 27 June 01 GAIL Solar Turbines TeleNet IBC MEGAS Qatar 01 NTPC 7 May 01 GDF Gaz de France Zeigler Coal Al-Khaleej NTPC 4 Jun 01 PGA Malaysia 2001 GMR Group Gulf Times PL Gas New Delhi Nov 01 Project Based Alliances Winrock New Delhi 2001 Hitachi Terrapin Sing Asia Power 01 Asia Power 2002 Feb 4-7 EDF IDFC NTPC Power Feb 11 ABF Malaysia Pwr Apr 15-16 Bechtel IRG IBC MEGAS Oman Apr 21-22 ABF China Power May 20-21 CERA J-Power EPDC NTPC PMI July 24, 2002 PowerGen Asia Oct 2-4 D&T Marathon Oil ASEAN E. Thailand 21-22 Oct ABF Malaysia 30-31 Oct Cooperation: Mobil Winrock Cogen 24-26 Oct MEGAS Iran 29-30 Oct 02 AT Kearney PSEG NTPC Noida Jan 6 03 IBCO&GP Amst Feb 27-28 03 Goldman Sachs Shell Mumbai IBC Mar 24-25 03 ABF Shanghai Apr 14-16 03 Morgan Stanley Singapore Power FICCI India Oil Scenario IBC Qatar Sep 03 Sumitomo Bank Tata Group Power Gen Asia Sep 03 Terrapin Korea Sep 03 Tenaga Nasional Pro Bono Studies BCCI Mumbai Sep 03 Asia Power Malaysia Oct 03 Unocal Asia Gas Buyers 2-3Feb04 FICCI FICCI Seminar Environment USAID IPPAI Power Trade 27 Apr04 CII 10th Megas Dubai 27-30Nov04 Winrock Iran Gas India 15-16 Dec 04 Assocham CGES London 28-29 June 05 World Bank PG Asia 2005 Singapore US Embassy Iran Gas India Sep 05 Qatar 19-21 Feb 06 Power Ministry © Global InfraSys (P) Ltd. & Asia Consulting Group (P) Ltd. Page 4 GIS-ACG Global Strategy Services: Power & Energy

Expertise: Infrastructure Sectors GIS-ACG expertise includes Power, Oil, Gas, Transport & Emissions. These are dynamically linked Infrastructure Sectors. Distribution Power Transmission Power Emissions & Convergence Shipping Carbon Trading Oil & Gas Energy Pipelines E&P Refineries & Product LNG Automotive Transport Coal & Railways Lignite Emissions Oil Gas Telecom Wireless Wires Power Transport Water Economic & Political-Policy Water Pipelines © Global InfraSys (P) Ltd. & Asia Consulting Group (P) Ltd. Page 5 GIS-ACG Global Strategy Services: Power & Energy

Power & Energy: Integrated Practice GIS-ACG's comprehensive Power & Energy strategic practice integrates the dynamic impact of Power & Energy Markets, Competition, and Regulatory Developments. These include Merit-Order-Despatch, Merchant Power & Energy Trading. 3 Net Impact of Dynamics Impact on Energy Projects Lower Tariffs Competition Price Gas • Guaranteed: - Tariff LNG - Offtake IRR • Change of Law Liquid Fuels Protection Demand Supply Competitive Dispatch 2 Key Forces of Change in the Power Sector Multilateral Agencies Government Market Gencos Political Public Transcos Policy Regulatory Discos Legal Incumbent 2000+ 1 Key Stages in Asian Power Sector Evolution ‘97-’99 Merchant Power Illustrative Renegotiations Competition ‘95-’96 ‘90-’94 Demand Revisions Reviews Privatization IPP Entry Economic Crisis Negotiations Deregulation Liberalization Currency Shock Learning Coal Investment Crunch Clearances Renewables Monopolies © Global InfraSys (P) Ltd. & Asia Consulting Group (P) Ltd. Page 6 GIS-ACG Global Strategy Services: Power & Energy

Global Market Studies & Business Plans GIS-ACG conducts Global Market Studies & develops Global, Regional & Country Business Plans across all 195 Countries & 7 Continents †. These include 5-Year Business Plans, Annual Strategic Reviews & Strategic Updates. * In June 2008 GIS-ACG completed its 11 Years of Power & Energy R&D across 195 Countries. North America Europe CIS & Eastern Europe 7 Continents Asia & Oceania 195 Countries 70 Territories South America Africa Middle East * GIS-ACG Global Power & Energy R&D † Each continent is further segmented into Regions based on Regional, Economic, South Asia - 1995-1996 - (2 Years) Geographic or Historical Association. Rest of Asia - 1997-2000 - (4 Years) Rest of World - 2003-2008 - (5 Years) Total R&D - 11 Years 3000 Km 3000 M © Global InfraSys (P) Ltd. & Asia Consulting Group (P) Ltd. Page 8 GIS-ACG Global Strategy Services: Power & Energy

Global Investments: Country Rating & Ranking GIS-ACG evaluates & screens potential investment countries via a rigorous multi-parameter rating and ranking System. The methodology is customized to client strategic & investment criteria. It systematically assesses the relative attractiveness of potential investment countries and ranks target investment markets. Weight Allocation To Major Categories Weight Allocation To Sub-Parameters Category Sub-Parameter % Utility Restructuring Utility Reform Initiative 100 10% 25% 90 80 70 Regulatory Factors 60 20% 50 40 30 Country Parameters Utility Financials 20 20% 25% 10 0 Sub-Parameters Details Installation of Transformers, substations Penalties Operating Cost To Total Cost Fiscal Deficit To SDP Tariff Rationalization: Industrial Upgradation of T&D Utility Buyback Days Payable Policy Stability Tariff Pronouncement Extent of Metering for Industry RoR Without Subsidy Interest Coverage Ratio Reform Status TOD Tariff Extent of Metering for Households Revenue Realization To Total Cost Interest rate on Market Borrowings Reform Time Frame Metering Extent of Metering for Agriculture Collection Efficiency Days Receivable Political Stability Residential Wheeling Current Ratio State guarantees to State Budge % Industrial growth Status Third Party Sales Debt-Service Coverage Ratio Power Subsidy To Agriculture to State Budget (%) GDP Growth Rate Time Frame Banking RoR To Sales Revenue Political Interference in Tariff Rationalization Per Capita Income Distribution Privatization Time Frame Subsidy To Sales Revenue No. of opposition events to of reform initiatives Agriculture Growth Rate Unbundling Status Billing Efficiency % of government loans written-off Political interference to SERC functioning Cross-subsidy To Sales Revenue Asset Sales: R&M/O&M IT Infrastructure Debt-Equity Ratio Share of Power Sector in Total Outlay Tariff Rationalization : Agriculture Studies Completed © Global InfraSys (P) Ltd. & Asia Consulting Group (P) Ltd. Page 9 GIS-ACG Global Strategy Services: Power & Energy

Global Regulatory & Country Benchmark Studies GIS-ACG conducts Global Regulatory Reform Studies to benchmark the pace of country reform and provide strategic support to Regulators in identifying best-practices and their incorporation into a country's Regulatory Framework. GIS-ACG also evaluates the net impact of Regulatory developments on Power & Energy opportunities. © Global InfraSys (P) Ltd. & Asia Consulting Group (P) Ltd. Page 10 GIS-ACG Global Strategy Services: Power & Energy

National Master Plans GIS-ACG’s proprietary National Power, Energy, Transport & Emissions Models (N-PETE-Ms) drive long range forecasting (50 Years) & scenario simulation. An N-PETE-M's primary application is in the development of client market & project strategy as well as government policy planning & design. An N-PETE-M typically micro-models and integrates over 90%+ of the physical infrastructure sectors and macro-models almost 80%+ of the economy. N-PETE-M Blueprint Dynamic Development: Modularly National National built & seamlessly integrated, Supply Forecast Demand Forecast A Sterling Forecasting N-PETE-Ms are continuously refined, expanded, and updated... Track Record Iron & Steel (Based on 100% To eliminate the standard modeling IPPs Industrial GIS-ACG contrarian forecasts hazard - GIGO - the N-PETE-Ms Tracking & Rating GIGO are powered by the constantly 30 Industries based on N-PETE-Ms have Captive Agriculture PPPs updated GIS-ACG Power Track of Projects) (Including (∑ 100 Databases) consistently proved highly Small Scale) Cogeneration Commercial GIS-ACG N-PETE-Ms surpass the accurate across: integrated methodology of the U.S. Sub-Models Government Utilities Residential National Energy Modeling System of Captive Supply • Electricity Demand Energy Information Administration Forecast • Energy Demand Forex Limits Office of Integrated Analysis and Installed Base R&M Traction Forecasting U.S. Department of Load & • LNG Potential Energy (DoE) Standby Power Impact Supply Demand Public Lighting • IPP & Energy Risk IPP PPA Forex Sustainability • Captive Power Revenue Forecast Sectoral Growth Forecast Electricity • Mega Projects Tariff Projections Trade Balance of Payments (+) (+) • T&D Loss Power Arrears, Charges, & Losses Policy Power ∑ Utility Economy PPA Obligations Scope Investment Energy (National) Investment Plans (-) (-) Infrastructure Transport • Historical Telecom (1950-Present) Budgetary Support Network • Forecast Infrastructure Power Subsidies T&D Distribution (Present-2050) Projects Development Policy Forecast Tariff Policy Load Transmission Ratio Policy IPP Incentives Scenario Energy Transport Technical Loss Grid Simulation Fuel Policy Demand Demand Non-Technical Loss Projects Change of Law Supply Supply N-PETE-M India Evacuation T&D Economic & Industrial Policy Ambient Limits Forecasts Key Features Systems Gas Power • Policy & Impact Power Transport • Political Coal Limits Forecast Industry • Time to build: 2.5 years Domestic • Legal Rail Industry & Impact • Size: 100 MB+ • Power Liquid Fuel Other Road • Equations: 5,000 + Transport • Energy • Exploration Fuel Import Renewable • Variables: 4500 + • Transport • Reserves Shipping & Ports & Price Agriculture • Support Files: 375+ Forecast • Production • Emissions & Carbon Trading Hydro Potential Pipelines & Terminals • Full Printout: 7,500 pages Domestic • Integrated Demand & Supply Forecasting • Feed Data: 5 Million + • Project Merchant Modeling & Simulation (Datapoints) Standby Power Imports • Mines • Oil Fields • Refineries • Advanced Network Systems & Sophisticated IT Solutions • Washeries • Gas Fields • PetroChem Other • Comprehensive Research & Total Knowledge Base © Global InfraSys (P) Ltd. & Asia Consulting Group (P) Ltd. Page 12 GIS-ACG Global Strategy Services: Power & Energy

Market Strategic Systems GIS-ACG Market Strategic Systems (MASS) empower Client Management with a formidable competitive advantage. They herald a quantum leap in strategic planning, business development and investment decision making. While a MASS is customized to client requirements it can be linked to an N-PETE-M to enable automatic updates. ... to create a ... & a quantum • GIS-ACG Market ... power these by ... and connect all client \"One-Touch competitive Strategic Systems the most sophisticated locations by leveraging Solution\" ... advantage ... integrate 10 critical information, intelligence, Internet Technology ... corporate strategic knowledge systems ... functions ... Strategic Modules Asset Reporting Monitor 10 • Project Initiatives • Business Development Implement 9 • Contact Management Develop • Performance Valuation 8 • Resource Allocation • Technologies Process Value Proposition • Engagement Coordination • Techniques Strategic: Strategy Design Planning • Dynamic Models • Business Strategy Planning • Database Systems • Strategic Objectives • Investment Decisions Project 7 • Business Development System • Internet Solutions • Client System Review • Benchmarking • Strategy Performance Measurement • IT System Evaluation • Simulations • Intranet & ESP Portfolio 6 • Solution Workshop • S: Strengths • Video Conferencing Project: Market 5 • W: Weaknesses • Email Query • Project Opportunity Tracking Develop • O: Opportunity • Project Feasibility Assessment • Concept Development • T: Threat • Financial Model Links • System Development • Initiative Cost-Benefit Analysis Knowledge Base Assessment • Custom Solutions • ACG Tracking Systems • Graphical Interface Intelligence: • Dedicated Surveys Planning 4 • Competitor Benchmarking Deploy • Client Information • Knowledge Management System Analysis 3 • Models • Training Workshop • Newsletters • Optimal Information Management • Databases • Magazines • Operationalization Synthesis • Reports • Enterprise-wide Transparency 2 • Internet • Executive Reporting • Journals • Customer Contact Management • Other • Update-Interface Research 1 • Directories • Conferences Important Note: The following terms are used interchangeably & denote the same concept • Workshops • Strategic Systems • ESP (Enterprise Strategic Planning) • The System • The Package © Global InfraSys (P) Ltd. & Asia Consulting Group (P) Ltd. Page 13 GIS-ACG Global Strategy Services: Power & Energy

Merchant Project Simulators GIS-ACG Merchant Project Simulators (MPS) are integrated models of Merchant Feasibility of Power & Energy Assets & can be dynamically linked to GIS-ACG MASS & N-PETE-Ms to factor in all market, policy, and project developments. V Project Model Integrated 'Road-Show Ready' • A merchant feasible project accrues considerable advantages viz.: Investment Criteria Met: Merchant IRR Key Agencies: • Promoter Coordination of Interests • Confidence in Project Returns • Equity Partner • Lenders • Investors 5 • Financing Terms & Expedience • Developers • Lenders • Equity Participants • ACG develops robust project models which integrate all key facets: • EPC Contractors • Equipment Suppliers • Financial • Contractual • Operations • Market Project Valuation • Fuel Suppliers & Managers Possible ? • IRR • NPV • Policy • Political • Legal • O&M Contractors Probable ? 4 • Banks & Rating Agencies Potential ? • Insurance Agencies IV Project Workshop Feasibility, Risks, Returns & Strategy • Provincial Electric Utilities What if? • Central & Provincial Agencies • Provincial Government Key issues addressed: • Market Validation Scenario Generation • Departments Project Evaluation • Economic Viability • Revised PPA/FSA • Do market based projections deviate from contract based projections? • Ministries • Change of Law/Factors • Identify-Quantify Risk • Performance Review • Government • Contingency Plans • Market & Returns Analysis • Revenue • Costs • IRR • Risk Mitigation Measures • What is the rationale, reliability & implications of these deviations? • Competitive Positioning • Strategic Learning • Near • Medium • Long Term Client Models Client Models • Strategy Development • Developer • EPC • Financial • O&M • What is the probability, nature & impact of contract renegotiation? • Exit Conditions Project • Schedule • Revenue • Costs • What are the ambient system risks? •PPA • FSA • Competition • Policy • Political • Legal 3 Execution of • Have all the risks & opportunities been addressed? GIS-ACG Approach Critique of Standard • Identified • Quantified • Evaluated • Incorporated Due Diligence Market Validation via • Is the project fundamentally commercially viable? 2 Merchant Feasibility • Are the projected returns resilient & strategy sound? Review Contract Based IRR & Invalid Contractual III Project Simulator Market 1 Risk Mitigation Risks Market Competition & Merit Order Despatch • Project Simulators are dynamic models Legend designed to capture variations in: • Project • Passthrough & Escalations • Guaranteed PLFs & Incentives Competitive Dynamics • Contract based IRR • Fixed & Passthrough Liabilities • Market based IRR Market Based • Ambient • Change of Law Protection Clauses • General Political Risk Assessment Fixed Systems • Arbitration & Enforceability II Ambient Systems • Interim • Tariff Rationalization Presumed • No Competition Agency • Ambient Systems (regulatory, • Guarantees & Escrow Mechanisms †1: Project Tariff policy, political & legal) are †2: Fuel & O&M • Power-Energy • Official Demand Figures (Infinite) Market †3: Consumer Tariff regarded as highly responsive • Supply Presumed Limited System Terms • Transmission Presumed Guaranteed Integrated to public & market pressures • IRR: Internal Rate of Return • Market • Official Demand Forecast Methods • O&M: Operations & Maintenance and a project cannot be • Static Systemic Interactions • PLF: Plant Load Factor Fundamentals insulated against them contractually. • No Customer Response • EPC: Engineering Procurement & Construction I Market Model Project Dynamics • Revenues †1 Market Insulated GIS-ACG Link the Client Asset Model to the MASS & the • Costs †2 Country Specific N-PETE-Ms • Tariff © Global InfraSys (P) Ltd. & Asia Consulting Group (P) Ltd. Page 14 GIS-ACG Global Strategy Services: Power & Energy

Strategic MIS Solutions: RDBMS & GIS GIS-ACG Strategic Systems provide clients the maximum Strategic Insight & Value by incorporating advanced RDBMS (Relational Data Base Management Systems) seamlessly integrated with GIS (Geographic Information Systems). ACG Strategic Systems Value Proposition: • Market Opportunity Development • System Planning • Asset Optimization • Risk Assessment • Power & Energy Market Aggregation • Power & Energy Trading Strategic & Tactical Value Information & Knowledge System Sophistication & Power RDBMS: Relational Data Base Management 1 2 3 4 90 100 Log System (ACG systems are based on FileMaker Pro) Scale GIS: Geographic Information System is a Graphical Natural Limit Representation Tool used for analyzing & mapping data from the Strategic Systems & Simulators. The system enables instant conversion of market data into graphical Infrastructure Maps of the State or Excel Region. PPT MS Access & Oracle as platforms are NOT RDBMS GIS recommended as they are: Word Print - Sub-Optimal to Develop & Update & - Severely constrain Dbase Query © Global InfraSys (P) Ltd. & Asia Consulting Group (P) Ltd. Page 15 GIS-ACG Global Strategy Services: Power & Energy

Knowledge Systems & Architecture GIS-ACG leverages its Ten Categories of Proprietary Knowledge Systems & Streams to enable the development of the most advanced Strategic Systems & Simulators. The GIS-ACG Knowledge Base comprises nearly a Million Files. Knowledge, Information & News Streams A B C D E Policy & Economic Project & Utility & Project Industry & Political Bidding Competitors Finance Systems Frames & Government Policy 1 Projections & Market Structure Models Forecasts 2 (Demand) Databases Projects 3 (Supply) Simulators • Merit Order Despatch 4 (Load Flow & Trading) • Gas-Power Assessment • Merit Order Payment Financial 5 (Commercial Risk & Models Asset Returns) • Power & Energy Asset Valuation Infrastructure Knowledge Base Search Purity GIS-ACG Internal: > 95% Google: < 5 % © Global InfraSys (P) Ltd. & Asia Consulting Group (P) Ltd. Page 16 GIS-ACG Global Strategy Services: Power & Energy

7 Levels of Country & Asset Due-Diligence GIS-ACG conducts 7 Levels of Standardized Country Market Assessment & Project Asset Due-Diligence across all the 195 Countries on the planet. Systems Studies Market Strategic Systems 7 Levels of Country & Asset Assessment =∑ Merchant Project Simulators =∑ National Master Plans =∑ © Global InfraSys (P) Ltd. & Asia Consulting Group (P) Ltd. Page 18 GIS-ACG Global Strategy Services: Power & Energy

7 Levels: Sequence & Strategic Value The 7 Levels of Country Market Assessment & Project Asset Due-Diligence are Sequential. They are in increasing order of Resolution, Complexity & Strategic Value. They provide clients the maximum flexibility in mandating assignments. Level Title Detail Man-Days † Sequential Buildup 1 Country Market Assessment - Economic & Industry 30 (Standardized across 195 Countries) - Power - Energy 2 Independent Demand Forecasts - Power 30 (Capacity, Generation, Base-Peak Load) - Energy-Mix (Primary & By Sector) - Energy Price & Power Input Cost 3 Supply Project Profiling & Rating - Profiling 30 Power & Energy Projects - Tracking - Rating 4 Merit Order Dispatch (MoD) - Synthesis of 30 (System Dispatch Risk) Level 2 & 3 Assessments 5 Merit Order Payment (MoP) - Off-taker Financial Modeling 30 - Project Financial Risk - 50 6 Gas-Power Assessment & Strategy - Spark-Spread 30 - Gas Market Aggregation - Gas-Power Asset Optimization 7 Power Asset Valuation - Contract vs. Merchant Cash Flow & IRR 30 Energy Asset Valuation - Valuation: Development / Buy-In - - Positioning: Dilution / Exit 50 210-250 † Range: +/- 10 Days † Exceptions: USA, India, China, Australia (Selected Large Multi-State/Region Nations) Synthesis, Modeling & Simulation © Global InfraSys (P) Ltd. & Asia Consulting Group (P) Ltd. Page 19 GIS-ACG Global Strategy Services: Power & Energy

Level 1: Country Market Assessment (Part 1) GIS-ACG provides clients a standardized strategic assessment across all 195 countries & 70 territories in the world. Country Overview • History & Politics • Economy • Power & Energy Overview • Media, Telecommunication & Transport Overview Country Investment Climate • Government initiatives to encouraging investment • Economic Stability • Financial Environment • Political Environment Power & Energy Overview • Power Generation Mix by Fuel • Primary Energy Mix • Electricity Installed Capacity by Type • Sector-wise consumption of Power and Energy Organizational and Market Structures • Power and Energy market structure • Regulatory Framework & Structure • Organizational Structure of the Electricity Supply Industry Production and Consumption • Electricity Generation and Consumption • Electricity Installed Capacity • Production and Consumption of energy resources Geographical Power & Energy Review • Reserves/potential of energy resources • Tariff structures • Capacity addition projects © Global InfraSys (P) Ltd. & Asia Consulting Group (P) Ltd. Page 20 GIS-ACG Global Strategy Services: Power & Energy

Level 1: Country Market Assessment (Part 2) Power Overview Energy Overview Generation, Transmission & Distribution Production, Transmission & Distribution • Electricity Installed Capacity • Reserves/potential, production and consumption of • Electricity Generation mix conventional and non-conventional energy resources • Electricity Consumer mix • Key Issues related to the production, transmission • Transmission Infrastructure & Access rules and distribution • Transmission bottlenecks & • Transmission pricing • Distribution sector Sector Reforms • Key features of market design Sector Reforms • Stage along reform path • Key features of market design • Government end vision and time table • Degree of Unbundling • Steps taken by the government • Stage along reform path • Government end vision and time table • Steps taken by the government Regulation & Pricing • Government's commitment towards • Key regulatory entities & Ownership gas fired power plants (Public or Independent) • Key regulatory policies Regulation & Pricing • Energy prices (such as Oil and Gas prices) • Key regulatory entities & Ownership (Public or Independent) • Key regulatory policies Market Fundamentals & Risk • Investment required to setup & generate power • Private companies operating in the • Wholesale electricity prices energy sector • Retail electricity prices • Private companies as percentage of total energy market Market Fundamentals & Risk • Public/Private energy offtakers • Type of IPP contracts (present & potential) • IPPs as percentage of total generation • Public/Private power offtakers (present & potential) Opportunity Assessment • Future Projects in the energy sector Opportunity Assessment • Potential areas of investment • Future Projects in power sector in the energy sector • Potential areas of investment in power sector © Global InfraSys (P) Ltd. & Asia Consulting Group (P) Ltd. Page 21 GIS-ACG Global Strategy Services: Power & Energy

Level 2: Independent Demand Forecasts GIS-ACG conducts independent Demand Forecasts in Power & Energy. As Official Data & Forecasts are often suspect or wanting from the perspective of Strategic or Asset Planning - these are systematically reviewed & rectified. Optimistic Demand Forecasts can heavily impact Power & Energy system planning & client Power & Energy investments. GIS-ACG utilizes multiple methodologies to develop its forecasts including: • Review of all Official Forecasts & Vision - System Dynamics Modeling Documents - Econometric Modeling • Reverse Engineering of Official Models - Regression Analysis • Analysis of Errors Detected & Official Data Implications. For ALL Consumption Categories: • Review of Category wise Electricity & Energy consumption & official Forecasts. • Analysis of Errors Detected & Official Data Implications. • Growth Rate Analysis • GIS-ACG Forecast by Category • Integration of Forecasts by all Categories of Electricity & Energy Consumption. • Trend & Implication Assessment • GIS-ACG Baseline Demand = Average of Category wise Summation & Trendline Forecast • Shortage Adjusted Forecast (Add Actual Recorded Shortages To Baseline Demand) Electricity • Grid Demand Forecast (Subtract New Captive Power Forecast From Shortage Adjusted Demand) © Global InfraSys (P) Ltd. & Asia Consulting Group (P) Ltd. Page 22 GIS-ACG Global Strategy Services: Power & Energy

Level 3: Supply Project Profiling & Rating GIS-ACG develops the most advanced & sophisticated databases to Track, Profile & Rate Power & Energy Projects for opportunity Assessment as well as Feeder Data Streams to the Merit Order Dispatch (MoD) Assessment. Information Overload GIS-ACG Project Tracking Systems are complex Relational Data Base Management Systems (RDBMS) which comprehensively tracks the status of ALL the Power & Energy projects in a target country. Key Challenge: How does one synthesize and triangulate the vast amounts of information gathered from hundreds of diverse sources to arrive at a comprehensive assessment of project status, success Evaluation of Despatch Risk potential, commissioning etc? for Client's projects Project Knowledge Management The Internet: Advantage or Chaos: The Internet is an ocean of • Project Success Potential unverified and often unreliable information. The collation & • Expected Commissioning Dates synthesis of this information is a substantial challenge. The veracity • Project Cost & Proposed Tariffs of the information is a critical issue. • Regulator Tariff Orders • Position in MOD stack Information & Data Conflict Resolution: Various sources often Project Status provide a conflicting perspective in critical areas including key • PPA • Tariff project related issues like project tariff, project capacity, project • FSA • Finances commissioning schedule etc. • Clearances • Escrow © Global InfraSys (P) Ltd. & Asia Consulting Group (P) Ltd. Page 23 GIS-ACG Global Strategy Services: Power & Energy

Level 4: Merit Order Dispatch (MoD) Sophisticated Project Due-Diligence based on Fundamentals is critical to both Equity & Debt participants in a Power Project. A comprehensive MoD & Scenario Simulation enables the identification & mitigation of Risk factors. It also optimizes Project Positioning & Parameters to take advantage of the ambient Competitive & Regulatory environment. An MoD Study is also a critical foundation for Energy Demand Aggregation & Energy Offtake Risk Assessment. GWhr GIS-ACG GIS-ACG Official Demand Supply - Generation Demand Forecast Forecast (Baseline) High Medium Low Project Based (GWhr) Official Demand Client Project Dispatch Risk Forecast (Optimistic) New Capacity Requirement Project Dispatch Risk Historical Energy Shortage 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Captive Power Forecast to be Subtracted from Grid Demand Scenario 1: Total Tariff Reference Year 2010 Year © Global InfraSys (P) Ltd. & Asia Consulting Group (P) Ltd. Page 24 GIS-ACG Global Strategy Services: Power & Energy

Level 5: Merit Order Payment (MoP) An MoP & Scenario Simulation renders the Payment Risk on Power & Energy projects transparent and exposes elements an Offtaker may be unwilling to highlight. Conservative Cost Models & Optimistic Revenue Models pose a high risk. Utility Cost Forecast Fuel Power Purchase (Project Summary) O&M Administration Depreciation Interest Miscellaneous Utility Payment Risk Profile Revenue < Operations Cost Revenue > Operations Cost Utility Revenue Forecast Total Revenue Expenditure (Incl: Interest & Depreciation) Fuel+O&M+Administration+Power Purchase Fuel+O&M+Administration Power Purchase Cost 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 © Global InfraSys (P) Ltd. & Asia Consulting Group (P) Ltd. Page 25 GIS-ACG Global Strategy Services: Power & Energy

Level 6: Energy-Power Assessment & Strategy GIS-ACG conducts multi-parameter Energy-Power assessments to establish the Relative Attractiveness of Countries or States from an Energy Market & Value Maximization Perspective. This includes all key aspects such as Gas-Power Assessment, Spark-Spread Assessment, Gas Market Aggregation and Gas-Power Asset Optimization. Relative Weights of Primary Parameters (Illustrative) A1% A% C1% C% - + B1% B% % Weight X Y Z Power Utility Gas Power (Weighted) (Weighted) Matrix Sum & Scale Rating Agencies (Weighted) Selected Parameters A B C D E F G H Power X% Gas Power Gas Supply Gas Gas Price Spark Naphtha Power Power Private/IPP Y% Spread MW Transmission Band Supply Trading Transmission Gas -Power Z% Implementation of Targets Set Regulatory Frame Relative Weights of Sub-Parameters Implementation of Regulatory Frame (Illustrative) Track Record on Subsidy Payments GNL Power GNL Cogen Captive Structural Adjustment Support Provided to Utilities Weight @ % Weight @ % 10% 10% Implementation of Anti-Theft Legislation Measures A1% A% E1% E% X1 X2 Timeliness of Tariff Order + - Implementation of Tariff Order + Nature & Scope of Tariff Order D1% D% Existing X% - Energy Audit (11 kV) High Y% Aggregate Technical & Commercial Losses (ATC) in % Medium Z% C1% C% GNL Gearing Level (Total Debt/ Adjusted Networth) B% B1% Gas, Naphtha, Liquid Fuels (Product) (Revenues Sale of Power - Subsidy)/Operating Costs + I Actual Track Record of Debt Servicing Legend of Weights Applied Trends in Levels of Receivables (Days of Sales) Power Purchase & Fuel Creditors Built in Projection Existing X% Existing A% Existing M% Funding of Pension & Gratuity Liabilities High Y% New B% New N% Average Revenue Realization - Average Cost of Supply Medium Z% Trends in Financials with Base Year & Simulation Negative Score for -ve impact on Commercial Viability © Global InfraSys (P) Ltd. & Asia Consulting Group (P) Ltd. Page 26 GIS-ACG Global Strategy Services: Power & Energy

Level 7A: Power Asset Valuation GIS-ACG deploys a comprehensive 10 step proprietary methodology to conduct Project Despatch Risk (MOD: Merit Order Despatch) & Project Payment Risk (MOP: Merit Order Payment) Project Simulator Market Model Power Sector Risk Module • Supply Projection 5 6 ACG Projection (in order of events): Utility Revenue Forecasters Merit Order Despatch Stack • Payment Default • Official Demand • Surplus • Surplus Power Projection Projected By Merit • Tariff Renegotiation Merit Order Motivation • ACG Demand Additional Order • Merit Order Despatch 20 Year Capacity Despatch Projection Project 10 IRR Forecasts & Finance 1 Utility Financial Projections • Official Supply Terms Projections Gas Coal Excess Payment Liability Simulations Z MW Revenue • Default • Official Power ~ Revenue Shortfall • Deficit Market Projection Despatch (142,000 MW Fuel Gas Risk Switched Additional) • Wheeling Policy • Captive Power Financial Forecaster Liquid Options Fuel Projected 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 Revenue & Cost Impact Additional Regulatory & Demand Planning Coal 9 Project Financial Projections 7 Impact Response Utility Risk Module Liquid Captive Fuel @ 60% Success 2 Feedback Loops Revenue R&M 95 00 05 10 15 20 Illustrative Time Plot IPP Entry Price & Cost Model • Fuel 3 4 Tariff Simulator Escrow Cover Risk • Electricity Cost Utility Revenues 2000 Default Risk 1998 Cost of Generation Tariff by Customer Category 1996 2.5 (Rs/KWhr) 2002+ 95 00 05 10 15 20 Commercial Tariff Domestic Naphtha 2.66 Tariff (Rs/KWhr) Domestic FO 2.48 Rs/KWhr HT • Tariff Rationalization Imported LNG 2.21 Common Legend Imported Naphtha 2.19 $3/MMBtu Options LT > 10 BHP • Captive Power Growth Imported HSFO 2.17 Imported Coal 2.16 Contract Market LT < 10 BHP Domestic Coal 2.09 • Unbundling Terms Terms Residential Imported Gas 2.08 3 $2.3/MMBtu (Liability Disintegration) Response Domestic Gas 1.90 Agriculture 2.0 Consumer Tariff = fn (Utility Obligations / Losses) Captive Power = fn (Consumer Tariff) 95 00 05 10 15 20 Utility Revenue = fn 1/(Captive Power) N W SE SW E 4 Contract Renegotiation Model Region Ambient Systems 1 2 Demand Model Supply Model Project Contract Evaluation PPA FSA O&M Rs/KWhr Rs/Ton Rs/Mo Forecast by Consumer Sector Price/Tariff • National • Policy Pressure Comprehensive List Projects Development GWhr Tonnes Rs Quantity & Rating of Projects by Fuel • State • Political • Public 8 Not Others Demand (GWhr) Captive Correction Industry Finalized • Interim • Legal • Group Guarantees LCs Escrow Agriculture POL Specs --- --- --- Coal • Returns • Guarantees • Formulas MW Amount --- --- --- Commercial Gas • Industry Structure • Competition Residential • Tariff • Subsidy • Duty • Taxes Others Total = x MW • Prices • Legal Framework • Plans 95 00 05 10 15 20 © Global InfraSys (P) Ltd. & Asia Consulting Group (P) Ltd. Page 27 GIS-ACG Global Strategy Services: Power & Energy

Level 7B: Energy Asset Valuation (LNG-Gas) GIS-ACG conducts LNG & Gas Project feasibility by leveraging its proprietary comprehensive framework. Primary Offtaker Currency Risk LNG/Gas Project Forex Controls • Cash Flow • IRR • Net Back Project Merit Order Despatch Gas Demand $/MMBtu Gas Field Project Size & Location Power Fuel Regulatory Frame Liquifaction Cost of Generation Fertilizer Payment Risk Power Projects Shipping Load Curve Pipelines Residential Gas & LNG Tariffs Regassification Procedure Government Industrial Liquid Fuels Losses Utility Coal IPP Escrow Fuel Competition Project Success Other Captive Financials Inter-State Liquid Fuels Installed Power Demand Fuel Switch Dynamics Domestic Gas New Electrical System Industrial Naphtha Project Technology Agriculture Coal Power Regulatory Frame Gas Turbine Other Residential •Policy Internal Combustion •Political Regulators Commercial •Legal Assessment Scope Steam Turbine Gencos Other Standard GIS-ACG Economy Hydro Turbine Transcos Due Diligence Additional Analysis Payment Assumption Analysis Scope Other Discos Load Centers © Global InfraSys (P) Ltd. & Asia Consulting Group (P) Ltd. Page 28 GIS-ACG Global Strategy Services: Power & Energy

Power Project Due-Diligence Framework Strategic Planning & Sophisticated Due-Diligence based on Fundamentals are critical as an entirely new set of factors are impacting Power Projects which are beyond the control of the Project Promoter & Contractual Risk Mitigation. ACG's assertion at Powergen Asia '96 that Asian IPPs are Merchant Plants was 10 years ahead of its time and yet true throughout the 10 years. Regulatory & Power Reform Risk Intra & Inter-State Power Trade Utility ARR Filings PTC India Due Diligence SERC Tariff Orders PGCIL Due-Diligence State Energy Plans Open SEB Transmission Plans Access ABT Tariff Power Traders • IEGC • CTU Indian Electricity Grid Code Central Transmission Utility • OA • RLDCs Project Competitiveness Open Access Guidelines Regional Load Dispatch Centers • CERC • STUs Central Electricity State Transmission Utility Fatal Flaws in Current Regulatory Commission Electricity Act 2003 UI Index Based Trading Power Trading Mechanics Wheeling Charge Mechanics © Global InfraSys (P) Ltd. & Asia Consulting Group (P) Ltd. Page 29 GIS-ACG Global Strategy Services: Power & Energy

Global InfraSys & Asia Consulting Group • Asia Consulting Group (ACG) was founded in 1994 by a group of Asian expatriate & American consultants working with top consulting firms in the United States & Europe under the Chairmanship of Mr. S.C. Ho, who was also the Chairman of CIDC (China Investment Development Corporation). It has assessed the Power & Energy markets of 45 countries in Asia. Its' clients include global Power & Energy companies & financial institutions including the World Bank. • Global InfraSys (GIS) was launched in 2002 under the Chairmanship of Mr. Nasser Munjee, who is also the Chairman of DCB (Development Credit Bank) & the former MD of IDFC (Infrastructure Development Finance Co.) The GIS vision is to advise clients on global infrastructure strategies across 195 countries and nearly 70 territories. • ACG & GIS have the same shareholding structure and in 2008 the two firms were merged. The combined firm is referred to as Global InfraSys or GIS-ACG. The firm has its primary offices in New Delhi & Gurgaon, India. • The firm's vision is to combine a core of advanced technical, market, industry knowledge, business strategy skills and ITES (IT Enabled Systems) to provide superior consulting services in global infrastructure markets & projects. • GIS-ACG consultants possess expertise in a wide range of infrastructure sectors including Power & Energy, Transportation, Environment & Emissions, Telecommunication & Technology Transfer. The academic background of ACG partners is in business, engineering, finance, and law from MIT (Massachusetts Institute of Technology), Harvard & London School of Economics. • GIS-ACG has established a reputation for consulting excellence and meeting the strategy challenge in the complex and rapidly evolving Asian and Global infrastructure markets. GIS-ACG professionals have experience in over 300 projects in Infrastructure including Power, Energy (Oil & Gas), Transport and Emissions. • GIS-ACG plans to grow to over 150 Professionals worldwide in the near term. This includes Project Managers, Consultants, Analysts, Strategic Systems Managers, Knowledge Managers and Advisors. © Global InfraSys (P) Ltd. & Asia Consulting Group (P) Ltd. Page 31 GIS-ACG Global Strategy Services: Power & Energy

Vision & Achievements The Vision to be a World Leader in Global Strategic Advisory in Infrastructure has powered GIS-ACG efforts for 15 years. Trading: Power, Energy (Oil & Gas) & Carbon National Master 5 Plans Global Models Power Global Asia-Wide Oil-Gas Retainers Retainers State Transport Merchant Project Simulator Emissions Simulators Asia Power 2000 25 Countries in Asia Market Strategic Systems • ACG Client Client Client China Assignments Assignments Assignments Office National Project Asia Project ME-Latin-Africa Global Project • ACG Track Track Project Track Track Taiwan Office National Power & Energy Model GIS Launched India Office ACG US Established Launched 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 © Global InfraSys (P) Ltd. & Asia Consulting Group (P) Ltd. Page 32 GIS-ACG Global Strategy Services: Power & Energy

GIS-ACG Chairman Brief Background Mr. Nasser Munjee is the Chairman of Global InfraSys (P) Ltd. (GIS) & a Senior Advisor at Asia Consulting Group (P) Ltd. His vision for both companies has been the cornerstone of the companies' growth. Prior to joining Development Credit Bank (DCB) as its Chairman, Mr. Munjee was with the Infrastructure Development Finance Company Limited, India (IDFC) as its Managing Director and CEO. IDFC is one of India's leading infrastructure project finance and infrastructure policy advisory institutions. Mr. Munjee's journey in creating financial institutions began with the Housing Development Finance Corporation Limited (HDFC), which he has been assisting since its inception in February 1978. In March 1993 he joined the Board of HDFC as Executive Director with primary responsibility for resource mobilization, research, publications, training, communication and managing the Center for Housing Finance. He continues to be on the Board of HDFC along with fourteen other companies and several other institutions as Chairman, Member of the Board or as a Trustee. Mr. Munjee has a deep interest in infrastructure projects, rural development, housing finance, urban issues, specially the development of modern cities and humanitarian causes. Mr. Munjee is a Technical Advisor on the World Bank - Public Private Partnership Infrastructure Advisory Fund, Member of the Board of Emerging Markets of South Asia Fund (EMSAF), Trustee on HSBC Asset Management Trust and an Advisor to Primary (Quantum) Real Estate Fund. Mr. Munjee is a Member of the Goa Planning Board, Government of Goa, Special Invitee to the Managing Committee of the Goa Chamber of Commerce & Industry, Member of the Managing Committee of the Bombay Chamber of Commerce & Industry and also of CII, Western Region. He is a Trustee of Welham Boys School, Dehradun, Member of the Academic Council of Goa University, on the Board of Governors of the Narsee Monjee Institute of Management Studies (NMIMS), Member and an Honorary Distinguished Professor at IIT, Kanpur. Mr. Nasser Munjee holds a Bachelor’s degree from the University of Chicago (USA) and a Master’s degree from the London School of Economics, U.K. © Global InfraSys (P) Ltd. & Asia Consulting Group (P) Ltd. Page 33 GIS-ACG Global Strategy Services: Power & Energy

GIS-ACG CEO & MD Brief Background Mr. Vishvjeet Kanwarpal is the CEO & Managing Director of Asia Consulting Group (P) Ltd. (ACG) & Global InfraSys (P) Ltd. (GIS) Mr. Kanwarpal directs the Infrastructure Strategy practice at ACG & GIS including: Power, Energy, Transport, Emissions, Environment & Telecommunication. He has conducted over 200 client assignments in Infrastructure & over 100 in High- Technology sectors. He has been a Speaker & Workshop Leader at over 80 international Power & Energy conferences. His areas of expertise include market and project strategy, feasibility, business simulation, risk evaluation and risk mitigation techniques in emerging Asia and globally. Pioneered the development (design and implementation) of advanced merchant concepts, dynamic models and analytical tools for Asian & global markets. His experience in the power sector includes coal, liquid fuel and gas based projects, hydro power, cogeneration and renewable sources. Experience in the energy sector includes the entire range of fuels (including LNG & Pipeline Gas) for power, fertilizer, industry, residential and transport sectors. Expertise in the transportation sectors includes airports & aviation, railways, roadways, ports & shipping and advanced multi- modal systems. Conducted continental feasibility studies pertaining to electric/hybrid vehicles including review of advanced emerging technologies. Project Manager for major GIS-ACG projects spanning over 100 man-months each: o Global InfraSys R&D 2006-2008 - Global Models in Power, Energy (Oil & Gas), Transportation & Emissions Country Strategic Studies across 195 Countries & 70 Territories across the globe o Pan-Asian Power & Energy Study 2006 (Multi-Client Project for a Global Energy Consulting Company) Market Assessments & Forecasts in Power, Energy & Transport covering 45 Countries & Territories in Asia o Asia Power 2000 & Beyond (ACG's Multi-Client Study) - Updated 2002 Asia Consulting Group's strategic Power & Energy Strategic Study spanning 25 countries in Asia o India Power 2001 A Study of the State of Power Sector Reform Programs & Benchmarking across 25 states in India o National Power & Energy Model of India 1995-1996 (ACG's Long Range Forecasting Model) Design, Development and Deployment of ACG's NPEM covering all Infrastructure Sectors in India Mr. Kanwarpal was formerly a consultant with JSA/EDS Management Consulting in Boston, USA and has traveled widely to over 40 countries in Asia, North America, Europe, Middle East and CIS. Mr. Kanwarpal is a graduate of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), USA and has completed graduate courses at Harvard and Sloan School of Management, MIT. He received his International Baccalaureate from the United World College of the Atlantic (UK) and is also an alumnus of St. Stephen’s College (India) and The Lawrence School, Sanawar (India). © Global InfraSys (P) Ltd. & Asia Consulting Group (P) Ltd. Page 34 GIS-ACG Global Strategy Services: Power & Energy

GIS ACG Firm Profile Global Power Energy Strategy Global InfraSys Asia Consulting Group

0 comments

Notes on slide 1

2 Favorites