GLOBAL INFRASYS (P) LTD.
&
ASIA CONSULTING GROUP (P) LTD.
11th India Power Forum
4th December, 2008, Hotel The Park, 15 Sansad Marg,
New Delhi, India
Theme: Accelerating Power Sector Growth - Role of Nuclear Energy
Nuclear Power in India - Opportunities & Challenges
by
Mr. Vishvjeet Kanwarpal
CEO, Asia Consulting Group (P) Ltd. & Global InfraSys (P) Ltd.
Global Nuclear Power Background
India's Nuclear Power Potential - Opportunities
Private Participation in Nuclear Power - Challenges
The Need for Integrated Power & Energy Planning in India
www.globalinfrasys.com
mailto:query.gis.acg@gmail.com www.acg-asia.com Dec 2008
© Global InfraSys (P) Ltd. & Asia Consulting Group (P) Ltd. Page 1 Nuclear Power in India - Opportunities & Challenges

G L O B A L I N F R A S Y S ( P ) L TD .
&
A S I A C O N S U L T I N G G R O U P ( P ) L TD .
Global Nuclear Power Background
India's Nuclear Power Potential - Opportunities
Private Participation in Nuclear Power - Challenges
The Need for Integrated Power & Energy Planning in India
© Global InfraSys (P) Ltd. & Asia Consulting Group (P) Ltd. Page 2 Nuclear Power in India - Opportunities & Challenges

The World Nuclear Power Club
Nuclear power is highly concentrated in the US, Europe & Far East Asia.
According to IAEA data, 47 countries have
expressed an interest in the introduction of nuclear
USA power: 16 are from the Asia/Pacific region (from
the Middle East to the Pacific), 15 are from Africa,
10 from Europe and 6 from Latin America.
IAEA
EU
TWh
900
800
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
South Africa
Germany
Slovakia
Slovenia
Armenia
Canada
USA
Switzerland
Pakistan
China
United Kingdom
Sweden
Korea RO (South)
Brazil
France
Romania
Argentina
Hungary
Czech Republic
Japan
Spain
Russia
Finland
Mexico
Belgium
India
Bulgaria
Netherlands
Lithuania
Ukraine
Nuclear Electricity Generation, 2008 Source: World Nuclear Organization, 2008
© Global InfraSys (P) Ltd. & Asia Consulting Group (P) Ltd. Page 3 Nuclear Power in India - Opportunities & Challenges

Global: Nuclear Power Generation Overview
In 2008, Nuclear electricity generation contributed 15% to the World's total electricity generation, India was ranked 28th.
Share of Nuclear Power Generation in Total Electricity Generation, 2008
%
100
80
60
40
20
0
South Africa
Germany
Canada
Switzerland
Pakistan
USA
United Kingdom
China
Korea RO (South)
Sweden
Brazil
Argentina
Slovakia
Slovenia
Armenia
Hungary
Czech Republic
Japan
Spain
Russia
Finland
Mexico
Belgium
Bulgaria
Netherlands
India
Lithuania
Ukraine
France
Romania
Nuclear Electricity Generation
Electricity Generation from Other Sources
Source: World Nuclear Organization, 2008
© Global InfraSys (P) Ltd. & Asia Consulting Group (P) Ltd. Page 4 Nuclear Power in India - Opportunities & Challenges

Global vs. South Asia Power & Energy Markets
South Asia's Primary Energy Demand is projected to more than double between 2010 and 2030
and is estimated to account for 20% of the Global New Primary Demand in this period.
Additional World Primary Energy Demand
2010-2030
South Asia
20%
Rest of World Q. Btu
80%
60
South Asia Primary Energy Demand
2010-2030
50
40
Maldives
Afghanistan 30
Bhutan
Nepal 20
Sri Lanka
Bangladesh
10
Pakistan
India
0
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
2022
2024
2026
2028
2030
© Global InfraSys (P) Ltd. & Asia Consulting Group (P) Ltd. Page 5 Nuclear Power in India - Opportunities & Challenges

G L O B A L I N F R A S Y S ( P ) L TD .
&
A S I A C O N S U L T I N G G R O U P ( P ) L TD .
Global Nuclear Power Background
India's Nuclear Power Potential - Opportunities
Private Participation in Nuclear Power - Challenges
The Need for Integrated Power & Energy Planning in India
© Global InfraSys (P) Ltd. & Asia Consulting Group (P) Ltd. Page 6 Nuclear Power in India - Opportunities & Challenges

South Asia Power Overview: By Country & State
The total Installed Capacity of the South Asia Region is about 170 GW. Each state has a unique power investment profile.
Maldives Afghanistan Pakistan India
Others by Total
Afghanistan
Bhutan
Nepal
Sri Lanka
Bangladesh
Kashmir (P)
Pakistan by State
Balochistan
NWFP & FATA
Sind Nepal Bhutan Bangladesh
Punjab
Lakshwadeep
Andaman Nicobar India by State
Daman & Diu
Dadra & N. Haveli
Chandigarh
Nagaland
Mizoram
Manipur
Arunachal Pradesh
Sikkim
Tripura
Pondicherry Installed Capacity Range
Meghalaya (MW)
Goa
10,000-25,000
Assam
J&K 2500-10,000 Sri Lanka Maldives
Himachal Pradesh 500-2500
Bihar
< 500
Jharkhand
Uttaranchal
Kerala
Chhattisgarh
Delhi
Orissa
Haryana
Rajasthan
Punjab
West Bengal
Madhya Pradesh
State
Karnataka
Private IPP
Uttar Pradesh
Central Share
Gujarat
Andhra Pradesh
Tamil Nadu
Maharashtra MW
0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000 20,000
© Global InfraSys (P) Ltd. & Asia Consulting Group (P) Ltd. Page 7 Nuclear Power in India - Opportunities & Challenges

India: Nuclear Power Plants: 1969-2008
Historically, India's Nuclear Power programme has been dominated by 200 MW Unit Turbines. There has been a
dramatic shift towards larger nuclear plants post 2005, which poses considerable additional commercial risks.
New Capacity Cumulative
(MW) Capacity (MW)
1200 8000
Kudankulam 1 & 2
Tamil Nadu
7000
1000 Planned
6000
Tarapur 3 & 4
Maharashtra
800
5000
Actual
600 4000
3000
400
2000
200
1000
Planned as of 2005
0 0
28-Oct-69
28-Oct-69
27-Jan-84
1-Jul-92
21-Mar-86
1-Jan-91
6-May-93
1-Sep-95
16-Mar-00
12-Sep-05
1-Mar-07
1-Sep-07
1-Jan-07
1-Feb-08
1-Apr-81
16-Nov-00
1-Jun-00
1-Aug-07
16-Dec-73
23-Dec-00
1-Dec-07
1-Dec-08
Year
© Global InfraSys (P) Ltd. & Asia Consulting Group (P) Ltd. Page 8 Nuclear Power in India - Opportunities & Challenges

India: Nuclear Power Opportunities
Turkmenistan Afghanistan Pakistan India • In 2008, the total installed capacity of Nuclear
Power Plants was 4,120 MW which contributed
• India has 17 PHWR Nuclear around 3% to the total installed capacity of India.
Project Participation
Reactors. • As of 2008, India has 17 nuclear power reactors
Reactor Sales which are operated by Nuclear Power Corporation
• As part of the Eleventh Five of India Limited (NPCIL). All operational reactors
Technology Transfer
Year Plan (2007-12), Nuclear are Pressurized Heat Water Reactors.
Iran
Power Corporation of India • In 2007-08, total electricity generated by nuclear
EPC Contracts
Ltd (NPCIL) will start site reactors was 16,930 GWh.
Iraq
work next year for 12 Chas NUPP
Mining Operations
indigenously-developed Nepal Bhutan Bangladesh
Kuwait
Fuel Sales
reactors, including:
- Eight Pressurised Heavy Spent Fuel Storage
Water Reactors (PHWRs) of NAPP
RAPS
700 MWe each Safety & Security 440 MW
740 MW
- Three 500 MWe Fast
Qatar 440 MW
Breeder Reactors (FBRs) and 1400 MW
- One 300 MWe Advanced
UAE
Heavy Water Reactor
(AHWR) Oman KAPS
Saudi Arabia
440 MW Myanmar
• NPCIL's augmentation plan 1400 MW
includes construction of 25-30
TAPS
light water reactors of at least Disputed
1280 MW
1000 MWe by 2030. NPCIL is Territories
currently identifying coastal
Yemen
JAPP
sites for the first of these, both
2000 MW
1000 and 1650 MWe types. In Operation
Under Construction
NAPP - Narora Atomic Power Plant KGS Future Projects
RAPS - Rajasthan Atomic Power Station 660 MW
220 MW
KAPS - Kakrapar Atomic Power Station
Sri Lanka Maldives
JAPP - Jaitapur Atomic Power Plant MAPS
TAPS - Tarapur Atomic Power Station 440 MW
KGS - Kaiga Generating Station
MAPS - Madras Atomic Power Station KAPP
KAPP - Kudankulam Atomic Power Plant 2000 MW
2000 MW
Source: NPCIL (India), WAPDA (Pakistan)
© Global InfraSys (P) Ltd. & Asia Consulting Group (P) Ltd. Page 9 Nuclear Power in India - Opportunities & Challenges

G L O B A L I N F R A S Y S ( P ) L TD .
&
A S I A C O N S U L T I N G G R O U P ( P ) L TD .
Global Nuclear Power Background
India's Nuclear Power Potential - Opportunities
Private Participation in Nuclear Power - Challenges
The Need for Integrated Power & Energy Planning in India
© Global InfraSys (P) Ltd. & Asia Consulting Group (P) Ltd. Page 10 Nuclear Power in India - Opportunities & Challenges

The Nuclear Power Challenge
A wide range of International, Regional and Indigenous factors are likely to Impact the Nuclear Power Potential in India.
Business & Asset Plan
Strengths Weaknesses
Opportunities Threats
© Global InfraSys (P) Ltd. & Asia Consulting Group (P) Ltd. Page 11 Nuclear Power in India - Opportunities & Challenges

Nuclear Power Challenge: Geo-Political
Energy Corridors are not just economic & business models -
IAEA Russia
they bind national interests together and fundamentally alter
Regional Geo-Dynamics permanently.
Mongolia
Kazakhstan
EU
Uzbekistan China
G Kyrgyzstan
Ar A
Turkmenistan
Turkey Tajikistan
Syria Iraq Iran Afghanistan
USA
Jordan
Pakistan
K Nepal
B
Conflict Lines Qatar
India
Saudi Arabia
UAE BD
Oman
Myanmar
The Gas Corridors
Yemen
0 3000 km
The Nuclear Connections
SL
© Global InfraSys (P) Ltd. & Asia Consulting Group (P) Ltd. Page 12 Nuclear Power in India - Opportunities & Challenges

Nuclear Power Challenge: Commercial Risk
As Market Competition & Regulatory Risk increase, Project Fundamentals are the key to project success.
While Utility contractual risk mitigation measures are key to Project Finance, they are unimplementable in most markets.
Generation
Spent Fuel
FSA PPA
Handing &
Fuel Supply Power Purchase
Storage
Agreement Agreement
Fuel Power Plant
Fuel Calorific Value Plant Heat Rate
Fuel Cost Cost of Generation
Transportation Costs Transmission Costs
Transmission
Transportation
Transportation Loss Transmission Loss
FSA/PPA Risk
Passthrough
Taxes & Duties Tax & Charges
Basic Fuel Cost Power Tariff
Market Distribution Loss
Competition
& Cross-Subsidy
Regulatory
Revenue Loss
Risk
Passthrough Merit Order Dispatch Merit Order Payment
Will Nuclear Power Plants be
treated as Merchant Power?
© Global InfraSys (P) Ltd. & Asia Consulting Group (P) Ltd. Page 13 Nuclear Power in India - Opportunities & Challenges

G L O B A L I N F R A S Y S ( P ) L TD .
&
A S I A C O N S U L T I N G G R O U P ( P ) L TD .
Global Nuclear Power Background
India's Nuclear Power Potential - Opportunities
Private Participation in Nuclear Power - Challenges
The Need for Integrated Power & Energy Planning in India
© Global InfraSys (P) Ltd. & Asia Consulting Group (P) Ltd. Page 14 Nuclear Power in India - Opportunities & Challenges

Nuclear Power vs. Coal, Hydro & Gas
Turkmenistan Afghanistan Pakistan India • In 2007, the total installed capacity of South Asia
was 165 GW with the following overall fuel-mix:
Coal (44%), Hydro (26%), Gas (15%),
Renewables (6%), Furnace Oil (4%), Nuclear (3%)
and Diesel (2%).
Iran
Iraq
Nepal Bhutan Bangladesh
Kuwait
Qatar
UAE
Oman
Saudi Arabia
Myanmar
Disputed
Installed Capacity
Installed Capacity by Country (2007)
Territories
by Technology (2007)
Yemen
India 135 3% 2%
4%
Pakistan 20
6%
Bangladesh 5 44%
Coal Sri Lanka 2.4
Gas Nepal 0.6
Furnace Oil 15% Sri Lanka Maldives
Bhutan* 0.4
Diesel
Hydro Afghanistan* 0.3
Nuclear Maldives 0.1
Renewables GW
26%
0 50 100 150
Source: CEA, NEPRA, BPDB, CEB, NEA, DoE, AEIC, STELCO * Installed Capacity is of 2006 Total Installed Capacity: 165 GW
© Global InfraSys (P) Ltd. & Asia Consulting Group (P) Ltd. Page 15 Nuclear Power in India - Opportunities & Challenges

Energy Potential & Plans vs. Ground Reality
Turkmenistan Afghanistan Pakistan India • The forecasted enormous shortfall of gas led the
energy industry to propose and develop over 30
plans to deliver gas to India alone.
• ACG recorded a total of nearly 23 LNG terminals
that were proposed over the past 12 years.
• There have been plans for almost 6 international
gas pipelines to India from Qatar, Oman, Iran,
Iran
Turkmenistan, Bangladesh and Myanmar.
Iraq
Nepal Bhutan Bangladesh
Kuwait
Qatar
To China
UAE
Jamnagar 5 MT
HBJ Pipeline
Oman (Reliance)
Saudi Arabia
Myanmar
Dahej 5 MT (Petronet LNG)
Pipavav 2.5 MT (British Gas) Disputed
PMT Kishorprasad 3.5 MT* Territories
Hazira 2.5 MT (Shell)
Yemen
Gopalpur 5 MT (Petronet LNG)
Maroli 2.5 MT (Natelco - Unocal)
KG Gas Vizag 2.0 - 2.5 MT
Trombay 3 MT
(HPCL - Total)
(GAIL-TEC-Total)
*Consortium
Dabhol 5 MT (Enron) Kakinada
2.5 MT (CMS Energy)
Betul 1.0 - 2.5 MT (Petronet LNG)
2.5 MT (IOC - Petronas) Sri Lanka Maldives
Byndoor 2.5 MT (L&T) 1.25 MT (Ispat Energy)
Mangalore 2.5 MT (Not Finalized) 1 MT (Nagarjuna Group)
Azhikal (Not Finalized) Ennore 2.5 MT (Dakshin Bharat)
Kochi 2.5 MT (Petronet LNG) Vembar 2.5 MT (Indian Gas Ltd.)
Key Cities / Towns
© Global InfraSys (P) Ltd. & Asia Consulting Group (P) Ltd. Page 16 Nuclear Power in India - Opportunities & Challenges