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# Saul Griffith: An Engineer's Approach To Climate. Working Backwards From Where We Want To Be

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Presented at GreenNet 09 by Earth2Tech (http://events.earth2tech.com/greennet/09/).

Presented at GreenNet 09 by Earth2Tech (http://events.earth2tech.com/greennet/09/).

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• 1. Put the individual in climate context.
• 2. HOW MUCH POWER DO I USE?
• 3. Energy is measured in Joules (J) Lifting an apple from the ground to the table. ~ 1 Joule
• 4. Power is measured in Watts (W). 1 Watt = 1 Joule / second 40 apples per second from the ground to the table = 40 Watts.
• 5. Running this Apple laptop takes 40 Watts.
• 6. The Power of me: Calculating my energy consumption Power, in Watts, is like an average. The average amount of energy, in Joules, you use each second. If you do something yearly (like ﬂy 105,000 miles), it contributes: 168,207 kilometers 1 year 1.40 megajoules Joules = 7,462 Watts � � � 7,462 1 year 31,536,000 seconds 1 kilometer second If you do something monthly (like your electricity bill), it contributes: 122 kilowatt ·hours 1 month 3.6 megajoules Joules = 170 Watts � � � 170 1 month 2,952,000 seconds 1 kilowatt · hour second If you do something daily (like drink 1 Energy drink), it contributes: 1 energy drink 1 day 7.84 megajoules Joules = 90 Watts � � � 90 second 1 day 86,400 seconds 1 bottle So now you can add all these things. Yearly things + Monthly things + Daily things = your lifestyle in watts.
• 7. quot;Watts per alwaysquot; 100W Think of your life in light bulbs.... A 12,000 Watt lifestyle is 120 x 100 watt light bulbs burning permanently.
• 8. SFO TO LHR 41 W W LHR- 4 W 3 SF 30 TS SF O ER ATL HE 3 O-A H TH DS LIG SFO 29 ARS L-A W -ATL 60 W O -SF A TL ET 1 W W O O 60 M R RE -CP RK LL A 4 S- 410 W O1 K- ST ASA CE 4 W 160 WO DO AT O 0W H5 G TI Y L- N G AT TAX S S G 4W -H W 10 W JU ER FO O W 3 N N ER W 3 W MY -O 57 S EH IR S W 1 A OT S LE FA 0 5 K W SF W 2 IC AF 56 H O- E H H - IC SA .VE NS BO 0 BO RV W S G S- W A V O ER -SE 21 SF 0 10 OA G 0 O ET TAL W 21 K OA E DC -DC V 8W NS K-O 0W S PO FE RD 18 -O DS 0 W AK -M 0 OO 34 DE ON 18 W EG -QU N 0W QU HIT ATIO 0 W E2 E-D W UC 10 TW 6 -SF ED ANCE W O2 FIN 10 SFO BUR-O W W -JFK 680 AK 20 W OAK-BUR 200 ARE 20 W JFK-SFO LTHC W HEA 200 W SFO-BO W TION 110 BOS-ORD S 210 W RECREA 70 W ORD-SFO 14 HOUSE 260 W 0W SFO-JFK 200 W JFK-SFO 200 W MISCSTU 230 W SJC-SJO FF1000 W 0W JC 23 SJO-S W BOO 280 -VIJ KS SJC 130 WA W W BIK STED 280 JC ISP OS TEXTIL NE ES J-S VI WS 6 WW AL ES EL A 18 9 0 W TER 1 W T 90 W EC RAN TR 60 W SPO ON W 40 RTT IC CO 1 S2 OM D1 M E4 50 PU Y 0W -S W TE O SF RS BO W 70 0 AT 0 CA 31 W W S RS R 0 50 0W WO -D 31 56 W W O WO ERTI 28 FO SF RK 0W AG IN 0 80 HILU 150 W -S TE W 0W RK K HE W 0W O2 .F OA SHOWERS GAS 70 W 0W COOKING GAS 30 W DR RN 31 EL AT 100 X 16 ET O- F MA 24 HT EC 20 TAXIORRENTAL 47 K-S W SF 70 SIG LIZ TER 0W TR YV OA W IC ER A IN UGG A TACO PRIN 41 OTA 50 ND 0W EB GE S W TOY HO DUN My 2007 life: TOYOT AG AG PEST 0 W 0 W DOD . FO CTR ES AG .E CO . BE SS LE ICID FF SU 18000 Watts. ER CE ILF OTHER EE LIGHTS GA STERE FR LAPTOP COMPU &W W RE FRIDGE DA UE 0 W HEATIN IC R UIT 50 W S 3 2 FA AL IRY LS ME INE 20 4 TS ,V S& ELEC 8 O ELEC AT 80 ELEC 7 EG AN GGS 10 6 TER EL ELEC 1 G GAS 4 GR TS 9 ELEC 3 &E W DO &N W AIN U IL 0W W S 1W EC 10 16 0W 10 00 W W 0W 0W 0W W W
• 9. Me
• 10. 7 000 000 000 People
• 11. Per capita power use 2003 Per Capita Energy Use 2003 30 16 Belgium 17 Saudi Arabia 18 Singapore 19 Gibraltar 20 Netherlands 21 Oman 1 Qatar 22 France 23 Russian Federation 2 Iceland 25 24 New Zealand 3 United Arab Emirates 25 Korea, Rep 26 Czech Rep 4 Bahrain 27 Germany 28 Austria 5 Luxembourg 29 Japan 6 Netherlands Antilles 30 United Kingdom 31 Denmark 7 Kuwait 32 Ireland 20 8 Trinidad and Tobago 33 Switzerland 34 Estonia 9 Canada 35 Turkmenistan 36 Slovenia 10 United States 37 Slovakia 11 Brunei Darussalam 38 Kazakhstan 39 Cyprus kilowatts 12 Finland 40 Spain 41 Libyan Arab Jamahiriya 13 Norway 15 42 Israel 14 Sweden 43 Italy 44 Ukraine 15 Australia 45 Greece 46 Belarus 47 Lithuania 48 South Africa 49 Hungary 50 Bulgaria US Average. 10 5 Global Average 0 10 20 30 40 50
• 12. Energy Use by Region energy by region [NorAmer-Eur-MiddEast + NorAfr-CenAme & Car+SouAme+Asia(ex MidEst) ] Power Watts/person 12000 north america 11400 Watts 10000 Average Per Person Power in Watts 8000 Europe 5400 Watts 6000 Middle-east & North Africa 2300 Watts 4000 Central America & the Carribean 1800 Watts South America Asia (excluding middle east) 1580 Watts 1450 Watts 2000 0 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 Population in Millions.
• 13. Energy production Humanity 18 TW Units shown in Terawatts (TW) Gas: 3.2 Coal: 3.6 Nuclear: 0.37 Hydro: 0.36 Wind: 0.06 Solar: 0.016 Geothermal: 0.03 Tidal: 0.0005 Plants: 5.2 Oil:5
• 14. Cumulative National CO2 Emissions from Fossil-Fuel Burning, Cumulative national CO2 emissions from fossil-fuel burning, ce- ment manufacture, andand Gas Flaring: 1751-2004 Cement Manufacture, gas flaring: 1751-2004 90 80 16 AUSTRALIA 1 UNITED_STATES_OF_AMERICA 17 CZECHOSLOVAKIA 2 USSR 18 BELGIUM 3 CHINA_MAINLAND 19 SPAIN 4 GERMANY_COMBINE 20 BRAZIL 21 REPUBLIC_OF_KOREA 5 JAPAN_COMBINE 70 22 NETHERLANDS 6 UNITED_KINGDOM 23 ISLAMIC_REPUBLIC_OF_IRAN giga metric tons of carbon 7 YUGOSLAVIA_COMBINE 24 SAUDI_ARABIA 25 INDONESIA 8 FRANCE_INCLUDING_MONACO 26 ROMANIA 9 INDIA 27 DEMOCRATIC_PEOPLES_REPUBLIC_OF_KOREA 60 10 CANADA 28 ARGENTINA 11 POLAND 29 VENEZUELA 30 TURKEY 12 RUSSIAN_FEDERATION 31 UKRAINE 13 ITALY_INCLUDING_SAN_MARINO 32 TAIWAN 14 SOUTH_AFRICA 33 AUSTRIA 50 15 MEXICO 34 SWEDEN 35 HUNGARY 36 THAILAND 37 DENMARK 38 ALGERIA 39 BULGARIA 40 40 EGYPT 41 GREECE 42 SWITZERLAND 43 NIGERIA 44 MALAYSIA 45 FINLAND 30 46 UNITED_ARAB_EMIRATES 47 KAZAKHSTAN 48 IRAQ 49 COLOMBIA 50 PAKISTAN 20 10 0 10 20 30 40 50
• 15. Out of equilibrium Atmosphere Atmosphere 600 GtC to Ocean +2 2 GtC/year Soils Carbon to 3000 GtC Atmosphere 8 GtC/year Oceans 40000 GtC Accessible Fossil Fuels 1600 GtC Vegetation 700 GtC
• 16. Atmospheric CO2 concentration. 380 370 360 CO concentration (ppm) CO2 Level (ppm) 350 Mauna Loa Direct Measurement 340 Hawaii 330 320 Ice Core 20 year Average Law Dome Antarctica 310 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 year Year
• 17. Temperature Changes around the world in the last quarter of the 20th century Trends in °C per decade -1 - 0.8 - 0.6 - 0.4 - 0.2 0 + 0.2 + 0.4 + 0.6 + 0.8 +1 +0.2 +0.4 +0.6 +0.8 +1 -1 -0.8 -0.6 -0.4 -0.2 0
• 18. The aesthetic choice... The design challenge... ? ? ? ? ?
• 19. Climate models: Physics and chemistry-based computer models of planet 1000 ppm 750 ppm 6.0 650 5.5 ppm 5.0 Temperature Rise, degrees Celsius 550 Entire cities and countries lost to sea level 4.5 ppm 500 4.0 ppm 20-50% Species Lost 3.5 450 1-4 Billion people face water shortages 3.0 ppm 15-40% Species Lost 400 2.5 ppm 2.0 2.0 10% Species Lost 1.5 1.0 0.5 Scenarios A1B 0.0 A1T A1FI -0.5 A2 B1 B2 -1.0 IS92a 1700 1800 1900 2000 2100
• 20. Scenarios: Guesses at humanity's reactions: quot;business as usual vs. changequot; 1000 ppm 750 ppm 6.0 650 5.5 ppm 5.0 Temperature Rise, degrees Celsius 550 Entire cities and countries lost to sea level 4.5 ppm 500 4.0 ppm 20-50% Species Lost 3.5 450 1-4 Billion people face water shortages 3.0 ppm 15-40% Species Lost 400 2.5 ppm 2.0 10% Species Lost 1.5 1.0 0.5 Scenarios A1B 0.0 A1T A1FI -0.5 A2 B1 B2 -1.0 IS92a 1700 1800 1900 2000 2100
• 21. Impact Studies: Ecosystem, geopolitical, and other impacts, as predicted by climate models and scenarios. 1000 ppm 750 ppm 6.0 650 5.5 ppm 5.0 Temperature Rise, degrees Celsius Entire cities and countries lost to sea level 550 4.5 ppm 500 4.0 ppm 20-50% Species Lost 3.5 450 1-4 Billion people face water shortages 3.0 ppm Resource wars 400 2.5 15-40% Species Lost IRREVERSIBLE ppm 90% Coral Reefs Lost 2.0 2.0 FEEDBACKS 10% Species Lost 1.5 1.0 0.5 Scenarios A1B 0.0 A1T A1FI -0.5 A2 B1 B2 -1.0 IS92a 1700 1800 1900 2000 2100
• 22. What if we choose? 650 550 +2oC 450ppm CO2 368 (year2000) 280 Preindustrial
• 23. Global consumption Sources of renewable energy. 16 TW 85 000 TW Surface Solar 3.5 TW Tidal 41 000 TW 38 000 TW Evaporation Land & Water heating 31 000 TW Atmospheric Absorption 300 TW Hydro Clouds 3600 TW Wind 25 TW Hydro Land 32 TW Geo thermal 7.2 TW Hydro Rivers 62 TW Ocean surface waves 90 TW Photosynthesis 25 TW Ocean 65 TW Land 3 TW Coastal waves 100 TW Ocean thermal gradient
• 24. 2033 Energy Mix 16 TW Units shown in Terawatts (TW) Nuclear: 3 ear (carbon-free) 2 cl Nu herGeothermal New Ot 0.5 w Ne Biofuels: W 3T W T 0.5 s uel 2 lF ssi Fossil Fuels: Fo 2TW Existing Nuclear: 1 m her ot Ge w Ne 2TW Existing Hydro / ear cl 0.5 Nu ting Renewables: s Exi 1TW s ble a new e /R Photo Voltaic o ydr H ng 2 isti d Ex in 5TW Solar wW Ne 0. 2TW r ola S taic l -Vo l ma o hot r Solar Thermal: 2 The P lar Wind:2 w Ne o wS 2TW Ne 2TW
• 25. 2 TW New Photo Voltaic Photo Voltaic 100m² 100m² 100m² ² ² 100m m² 100m ² m ² m² 0m 100 100 m² m² 0 10 ² 00 10 0m 0 ² m 10 1 ² 0 m 10 ² 10 m 0 ² ² 0 10 m 10 m . 0 0 sec 10 ² ² 10 0m m 1 00 10 m² m² 1 00 00 1 1 ² ² 0m 0m 10 10 m² m² 100 100 ² ² 100m 100m 100m² 100m² 100 m² of solar cells 100m² 100m² 100m² 100m² every second for the next 100m 100m ² ² 100 100 m m 25 years. 15% efficiency, ² ² 10 10 0 0 m² m² 10 10 0 0 good sitting. m² m² 10 10 0 0 m 10 m 10 ² ² 0 0 m m 10 ² 10 ² 0 1 0 m 10 00 m 1 ² 10 00 0 ² m 10 10 m ² 100 0 100 m² ² 100m 0m 100m m² 100m² 100m² 100m² 0m² m² ² m ² ² ²
• 26. 2 TW New Solar Thermal Solar Thermal 50m² 50 m ² 50 m ² ² ² 50 m ² 50 m ² 50 m 50 m m² m² ² 50 m² m 50 ² 50 m ² 50 m 50 ² 50 m ² m 0 ² ² 0 . 5 m sec m 5 0 0 ² 5 ² 5 1 0m m 50 5 m² m² 50 50 m² m² 50 50 ² ² 50 m 50 m ² ² 50 m 50 m 50 m ² 50 m ²  25 years 50 m² of solar thermal 50m² 50m² 50 m ² 50 m ² mirrors every second for 50 m 50 m ² ² 50 m 50 m ² ² the next 25 years. 30% 50 50 m² m² 50 50 m² m² efficiency, well sited. 50 50 m m 5 ² 5 ² 0 0 m m ² 5 ² 5 0 0 m 50 50 m ² 50 ² m 50 m 50 ² 50 m² ² 50 m m² 50 m 50 m 50 m m² 50 m ² 50 m ² 50m² m² ² ² ² ²
• 27. 2 TW New Wind Wind ter er met me Dia Dia m m 100 100 er et er et am Di am Di m 0 m 10 0 10 . min 6 100m Diameter 100m Diameter 12 3MW wind turbines in 10 10 0 m 0 m Di great locations every hour. Di am am et et er er Or one 100m diameter 100 100 m m Dia Dia turbine every 5 minutes… me met ter er
• 28. 3 TW New Nuclear Nuclear March SAT SUN MON TUE WED THU FRI 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 1x 3GW Nuclear plant every 9 10 12 13 14 15 16 week for the next 25 years. 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
• 29. 2 TW Geothermal Geothermal March SAT SUN MON TUE WED THU FRI 1 3x 100MW 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 steam turbines 9 10 12 13 14 15 16 every day for next 25 years. 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
• 30. 0.5 TW carbon (net zero) biofuels?. Biofuel 1250m² 1250m² 1250m² m² m² ² ² 0m 0m ² 1250 1250 m² 0m m² 125 m² 125 50 25 ² 50 0m 50 ² 12 m 1 12 ² 50 12 5 m ² m 12 0 ² 12 0 25 ² m 25 m 0 1 0 . 25 ² 1 25 sec ² 0m m 1 1 50 5 1 12 m² m² 12 50 50 12 12 ² m² 0m 50 25 12 1 ² m² 0m 250 125 1 m² m² 1250 1250 1250m² 1250m² 1250 m² or 1 olympic 1250m² 1250m² 1250m² 1250m² swimming pool of algae 1250 1250 m² m² 125 125 0m 0m every second for the next ² ² 12 12 50 50 m² m² 12 12 50 50 25 years. m² 12 m² 12 50 50 1 1 m 25 m 25 ² ² 0 0 1 m m 1 25 ² ² 25 12 12 0 0 12 m 50 12 m 50 ² 12 12 ² 5 m 125 50 125 m 0m 1250 ² 50 1250 1250m² 1250m² 1250m² 50 ² m² ² m² 0m m² 0m m² m² ² ²
• 31. km 10000 2000 4000 6000 8000 0 0 RUS 2000 CHN CAN USA 4000 BRA AUS IND ARG 6000 KAZ DZA SDN COD SAU MEX IDN LBY IRN MNG PER NER TCD 8000 AGO MLI ZAF BOL COL MRT ETH EGY NGA TZA VEN NAM MOZ PAK TUR CHL ZMB MMR AFG SOM CAF MDG UKR KEN BWA FRA YEM THA ESP TKM 10000 CMR PNG MAR IRQ UZB SWE Land area by country represented as scaled stripes GRL PRY ZWE JPN DEU COG MYS VNM CIV OMN POL NOR FIN PHL ITA ECU BFA NZL ESH GAB GIN GBR LAO ROM GHA BLR UGA GUY SEN KGZ SYR KHM URY SUR TUN NPL TJK BGD GRC NIC PRK HND BGR BEN CUB GTM YUG ERI ISL km KOR LBR MWI HUN PRT JOR ARE AUT AZE CZE PAN SLE GEO IRL LKA LTU LVA HRV TGO BIH CRI DOM SVK BTN DNK EST CHE TWN NLD MDA BEL LSO ARM GNB GNQ SLB HTI ALB MKD BDI RWA DJI ISR BLZ SLV FJI SVN KWT TLS SWZ JAM QAT VUT GMB BHS LBN PSE PRI CYP SGP FSM BHR TON KIR DMA STP HGK MUS COM LUX WSM CPV TTO BRN 2TW Wind 5TW Solar 1TW Hydro 2TW Biofuels “Renewistan” - 10TW
• 32. US energy consumption (TeraWatts) 3.5 Sep.11.2001. 3 Recession. 2.5 Oil Crises. 2 1.5 Depression. 1 0.5 0 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 quot;The Game Planquot; slideset release 1.01, March 21 2008 67
• 33. 2008 The year of 'peak waste'
• 34. If the average American were to leave home each morning with a backpack full of the fuel they need- ed for their day: Oil = 31 kg, 67 lb. Coal = 29 kg, 63 lb. Gas = 6 kg, 12 lb. 11 400 Watts.
• 35. SFO TO LHR 41 W W LHR- 4 W 3 SF 30 TS SF O ER ATL HE 3 O-A H TH DS LIG SFO 29 ARS L-A W -ATL 60 W O -SF A TL ET 1 W W O O 60 M R RE -CP RK LL A 4 S- 410 W O1 K- ST ASA CE 4 W 160 WO DO AT O 0W H5 G TI Y L- N G AT TAX S S G 4W -H W 10 W JU ER FO O W 3 N N ER W 3 W MY -O 57 S EH IR S W 1 A OT S LE FA 0 5 K W SF W 2 IC AF 56 H O- E H H - IC SA .VE NS BO 0 BO RV W S G S- W A V O ER -SE 21 SF 0 10 OA G 0 O ET TAL W 21 K OA E DC -DC V 8W NS K-O 0W S PO FE RD 18 -O DS 0 W AK -M 0 OO 34 DE ON 18 W EG -QU N 0W QU HIT ATIO 0 W E2 E-D W UC 10 TW 6 -SF ED ANCE W O2 FIN 10 SFO BUR-O W W -JFK 680 AK 20 W OAK-BUR 200 ARE 20 W JFK-SFO LTHC W HEA 200 W SFO-BO W TION 110 BOS-ORD S 210 W RECREA 70 W ORD-SFO 14 HOUSE 260 W 0W SFO-JFK 200 W JFK-SFO 200 W MISCSTU 230 W SJC-SJO FF1000 W 0W JC 23 SJO-S W BOO 280 -VIJ KS SJC 130 WA W W BIK STED 280 JC ISP OS TEXTIL NE ES J-S VI WS 6 WW AL ES EL A 18 9 0 W TER 1 W T 90 W EC RAN TR 60 W SPO ON W 40 RTT IC CO 1 S2 OM D1 M E4 50 PU Y 0W -S W TE O SF RS BO W 70 0 AT 0 CA 31 W W S RS R 0 50 0W WO -D 31 56 W W O WO ERTI 28 FO SF RK 0W AG IN 0 80 HILU 150 W -S TE W 0W RK K HE W 0W O2 .F OA SHOWERS GAS 70 W 0W COOKING GAS 30 W DR RN 31 EL AT 100 X 16 ET O- F MA 24 HT EC 20 TAXIORRENTAL 47 K-S W SF 70 SIG LIZ TER 0W TR YV OA W IC ER A IN UGG A TACO PRIN 41 OTA 50 ND 0W EB GE S W TOY HO DUN My 2007 life: TOYOT AG AG PEST 0 W 0 W DOD . FO CTR ES AG .E CO . BE SS LE ICID FF SU 18000 Watts. ER CE ILF OTHER EE LIGHTS GA STERE FR LAPTOP COMPU &W W RE FRIDGE DA UE 0 W HEATIN IC R UIT 50 W S 3 2 FA AL IRY LS ME INE 20 4 TS ,V S& ELEC 8 O ELEC AT 80 ELEC 7 EG AN GGS 10 6 TER EL ELEC 1 G GAS 4 GR TS 9 ELEC 3 &E W DO &N W AIN U IL 0W W S 1W EC 10 16 0W 10 00 W W 0W 0W 0W W W
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