HOW TO DO AI IN 2013 from Roadmap 2012

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Dr. Joseph Turian, MetaOptimize and GigaOM Pro …

Dr. Joseph Turian, MetaOptimize and GigaOM Pro
#roadmapconf
More at http://event.gigaom.com/roadmap/

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  • 1. HOW TO DO AI IN 2013 SPEAKER: Dr. Joseph Turian President, MetaOptimize Analyst, GigaOM ProThursday, November 8, 12
  • 2. how to do “AI” in 2013 Joseph Turian, Ph.D. MetaOptimize, GigaOm Pro @turianThursday, November 8, 12
  • 3. the ghosts of work past, future, and presentThursday, November 8, 12
  • 4. Past who makes computer, n., 1613: A person calculations.Thursday, November 8, 12
  • 5. PresentThursday, November 8, 12
  • 6. FutureThursday, November 8, 12
  • 7. The Turing Test (1950) 7Thursday, November 8, 12
  • 8. The Golden Years of AI (1956-1974) 1965, H.A. Simon: “machines will be capable, within 20 years, of doing any work a man can do.” 1970, Minsky: “In from 3-8 years we will have a machine with the general intelligence of an average human being.” 8Thursday, November 8, 12
  • 9. The AI winterThursday, November 8, 12
  • 10. A new dawn for AI?Thursday, November 8, 12
  • 11. Deep Machine Learning the Google “cat faces” paper 11Thursday, November 8, 12
  • 12. a trick to do “AI”Thursday, November 8, 12
  • 13. a trick to do “AI”Thursday, November 8, 12
  • 14. Thursday, November 8, 12
  • 15. Thursday, November 8, 12
  • 16. Thursday, November 8, 12
  • 17. Crowd LaborThursday, November 8, 12
  • 18. Thursday, November 8, 12
  • 19. Crowd-Labor applicationsThursday, November 8, 12
  • 20. Common applications Data entry Categorization Content generation ...Thursday, November 8, 12
  • 21. Case study: Data entry Workplace safety company courtesy of CloudFactoryThursday, November 8, 12
  • 22. In-house approach Costly training, high Complicated, turnover undocumented business process Can’t scale to meet Unreliable results demandThursday, November 8, 12
  • 23. Crowd-Labor approach Virtual assembly line Small microtasks with no Multiple eyes per task training required Reliable results Scales to meet demandThursday, November 8, 12
  • 24. courtesy of CloudFactoryThursday, November 8, 12
  • 25. Thursday, November 8, 12
  • 26. Data Entry Crowd-labor with auto Temp workers QA 86% accuracy 98% accuracy source: Humanoid (acquired by CloudFactory)Thursday, November 8, 12
  • 27. Sentiment Analysis Automatic Crowd-Labor Error-prone Accurate Coarse-grained (pos or Fine-grained neg)Thursday, November 8, 12
  • 28. “Did they think that my product is cool?” “Did they write that my car is fast?” https://crowdflower.com/sentiThursday, November 8, 12
  • 29. Input Crowd-Labor Business Process for Sentiment medium/low high confidence confidence OutputThursday, November 8, 12
  • 30. Input Crowd-Labor Business Process for Sentiment medium/low high confidence confidence ??? OutputThursday, November 8, 12
  • 31. courtesy of CrowdSourceThursday, November 8, 12
  • 32. Input medium/low high confidence confidence OutputThursday, November 8, 12
  • 33. Input training data medium/low high confidence confidence OutputThursday, November 8, 12
  • 34. Input training data AI Virtuous Cycle medium/low high confidence confidence OutputThursday, November 8, 12
  • 35. Better grammar = $$$Thursday, November 8, 12
  • 36. “We noticed that demand for a hotel increases if the reviews on TripAdvisor and Travelocity are well-written, without spelling errors; this holds no matter if the review is positive or negative.” Source: Panos IpeirotisThursday, November 8, 12
  • 37. “we’ll just implement a grammar checker to do it”Thursday, November 8, 12
  • 38. “we’ll hire interns and outsourcers to do it”Thursday, November 8, 12
  • 39. “let’s hire the crowd to do it”Thursday, November 8, 12
  • 40. Thursday, November 8, 12
  • 41. Revenue lift > $1MThursday, November 8, 12
  • 42. what we want vs. what we haveThursday, November 8, 12
  • 43. intelligent applications we want vs. intelligent applications we haveThursday, November 8, 12
  • 44. intelligent applications we want ApplicationsThursday, November 8, 12
  • 45. intelligent applications we have commoditized Enterprise Crowd-Labor Crowd-Labor Apps AppsThursday, November 8, 12
  • 46. Cloud-computing vs. Crowd-LaborThursday, November 8, 12
  • 47. Cloud-Computing vs Crowd- OCR, Web apps, APIs Application sentiment, ... Dispatch work, Deploy app Platform ensure quality reliably results Provision Provision processing, Infrastructure workers storage, ... from the crowdThursday, November 8, 12
  • 48. Crowd-Labor stack Application Chirpsy, CastingWords, uTest, ... Platform CrowdFlower, MobileWorks, CCS, ... Infrastructure Mechanical Turk, Elance, ...Thursday, November 8, 12
  • 49. the Crowd-Labor stack we want vs. the Crowd-Labor stack we haveThursday, November 8, 12
  • 50. the Cloud-computing stack we Application Abundant Platform Robust Infrastructure Unreliable hardwareThursday, November 8, 12
  • 51. the Crowd-Labor stack we want Application Abundant Platform Robust Infrastructure Unreliable workersThursday, November 8, 12
  • 52. the Crowd-Labor stack we have Commoditized Enterprise Few Application Some Immature Platform Not generic Unreliable Infrastructure UnreliableThursday, November 8, 12
  • 53. Crowd-Labor applications in Application Chirpsy, CastingWords, uTest, Senti, Platform Expensify, etc. InfrastructureThursday, November 8, 12
  • 54. robust Crowd-Labor platforms?Thursday, November 8, 12
  • 55. robust Crowd-Labor platforms? curation vs. technologyThursday, November 8, 12
  • 56. robust Crowd-Labor platforms? curation technology Application Application Platform Platform auto-QA reliabl e unrelia worker Infrastructure Infrastructure ble s workersThursday, November 8, 12
  • 57. robust Crowd-Labor platforms? curation technology Application Application Platform Platform Infrastructure InfrastructureThursday, November 8, 12
  • 58. Crowd-Labor enabling new applicationsThursday, November 8, 12
  • 59. Thursday, November 8, 12
  • 60. 0:23 male and female companions inspect socksThursday, November 8, 12
  • 61. “What % of shoppers spend over 30 sec in my store? Where do they browse? What do they buy?”Thursday, November 8, 12
  • 62. what Crowd-Labor applications can you imagine?Thursday, November 8, 12
  • 63. Thursday, November 8, 12
  • 64. Crowd-Labor 1. game-changing “AI” applications 2. enterprise-ready in 2012 3. ubiquitous soon... Joseph Turian, Ph.D. @turianThursday, November 8, 12
  • 65. Thursday, November 8, 12