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Futurist.com Think Tank for ASFE - The Best People on Earth
Futurist.com Think Tank for ASFE - The Best People on Earth
Futurist.com Think Tank for ASFE - The Best People on Earth
Futurist.com Think Tank for ASFE - The Best People on Earth
Futurist.com Think Tank for ASFE - The Best People on Earth
Futurist.com Think Tank for ASFE - The Best People on Earth
Futurist.com Think Tank for ASFE - The Best People on Earth
Futurist.com Think Tank for ASFE - The Best People on Earth
Futurist.com Think Tank for ASFE - The Best People on Earth
Futurist.com Think Tank for ASFE - The Best People on Earth
Futurist.com Think Tank for ASFE - The Best People on Earth
Futurist.com Think Tank for ASFE - The Best People on Earth
Futurist.com Think Tank for ASFE - The Best People on Earth
Futurist.com Think Tank for ASFE - The Best People on Earth
Futurist.com Think Tank for ASFE - The Best People on Earth
Futurist.com Think Tank for ASFE - The Best People on Earth
Futurist.com Think Tank for ASFE - The Best People on Earth
Futurist.com Think Tank for ASFE - The Best People on Earth
Futurist.com Think Tank for ASFE - The Best People on Earth
Futurist.com Think Tank for ASFE - The Best People on Earth
Futurist.com Think Tank for ASFE - The Best People on Earth
Futurist.com Think Tank for ASFE - The Best People on Earth
Futurist.com Think Tank for ASFE - The Best People on Earth
Futurist.com Think Tank for ASFE - The Best People on Earth
Futurist.com Think Tank for ASFE - The Best People on Earth
Futurist.com Think Tank for ASFE - The Best People on Earth
Futurist.com Think Tank for ASFE - The Best People on Earth
Futurist.com Think Tank for ASFE - The Best People on Earth
Futurist.com Think Tank for ASFE - The Best People on Earth
Futurist.com Think Tank for ASFE - The Best People on Earth
Futurist.com Think Tank for ASFE - The Best People on Earth
Futurist.com Think Tank for ASFE - The Best People on Earth
Futurist.com Think Tank for ASFE - The Best People on Earth
Futurist.com Think Tank for ASFE - The Best People on Earth
Futurist.com Think Tank for ASFE - The Best People on Earth
Futurist.com Think Tank for ASFE - The Best People on Earth
Futurist.com Think Tank for ASFE - The Best People on Earth
Futurist.com Think Tank for ASFE - The Best People on Earth
Futurist.com Think Tank for ASFE - The Best People on Earth
Futurist.com Think Tank for ASFE - The Best People on Earth
Futurist.com Think Tank for ASFE - The Best People on Earth
Futurist.com Think Tank for ASFE - The Best People on Earth
Futurist.com Think Tank for ASFE - The Best People on Earth
Futurist.com Think Tank for ASFE - The Best People on Earth
Futurist.com Think Tank for ASFE - The Best People on Earth
Futurist.com Think Tank for ASFE - The Best People on Earth
Futurist.com Think Tank for ASFE - The Best People on Earth
Futurist.com Think Tank for ASFE - The Best People on Earth
Futurist.com Think Tank for ASFE - The Best People on Earth
Futurist.com Think Tank for ASFE - The Best People on Earth
Futurist.com Think Tank for ASFE - The Best People on Earth
Futurist.com Think Tank for ASFE - The Best People on Earth
Futurist.com Think Tank for ASFE - The Best People on Earth
Futurist.com Think Tank for ASFE - The Best People on Earth
Futurist.com Think Tank for ASFE - The Best People on Earth
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Futurist.com Think Tank for ASFE - The Best People on Earth

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Collection of slides used in Long-Range planning think tank conducted by Glen Hiemstra of Futurist.com over two days in July 2008 for ASFE, an association of geotechnical engineering firms.

Collection of slides used in Long-Range planning think tank conducted by Glen Hiemstra of Futurist.com over two days in July 2008 for ASFE, an association of geotechnical engineering firms.

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  • 1. © Futurist.com Think Tank Glen Hiemstra
  • 2. © Why Explore the LT Future? Anticipate game changers Identify preferred future directions
  • 3. © Basic Agenda Foresight – The Driving Forces Dig into Implications Preferred Future
  • 4. © PRESENT PROBABLEPOSSIBLE PREFERRED FIRST WIN ACTION S T R A T E G Y Preferred Future Planning
  • 5. © Three Future Questions What is Probable? What is Possible? What is Preferred?What is Preferred?
  • 6. © Long-Range Planning Three Phases Strategic Thinking - Developing Foresight Strategic Decision Making - Deciding on preferred future, choosing directions Strategic Planning - Developing web of strategies and actions that will head in the preferred direction
  • 7. © What Is Your Image Of The Future …circa 2025?
  • 8. © The year is 2025. You are appointed to the Time Capsule Task Force. Your task is to send a time capsule back to ASFE in 2008. Place in the Time Capsule items, headlines, artifacts that communicate the key ETD’s that occurred in the past two decades and that changed our enterprise. Join the whole group in making review comments Reverse Time Capsule
  • 9. © The Question: What are the most important Events, Trends, or Developments that will impact us over the next 20 years? The year is 2025. You are appointed to the ASFE Archives Commission. For your assigned topic, brainstorm for 10 minutes, asking “what key developments have occurred in the last ~20 years?” Roam the room for a few minutes, reading the other topics. Add items if you wish. Discuss the themes that you see Archives Commission
  • 10. © Paradigm: The way we do things around here We should move From… We should move To…
  • 11. © Enjoy dinner…See you at 7:30 AM for breakfast in… Michigan Room for Day 2
  • 12. © Day 2 Agenda Picturing the year 2025 Stretching the images further Clarify next steps
  • 13. © LA 1950 Beanfields 2007 74 homes 2017 2027 2037 2047 2057 LA 2067 Paul Glover dream, http://www.ithacahours.com/losangeles.html
  • 14. © PRESENT PROBABLEPOSSIBLE PREFERRED FIRST WIN ACTION S T R A T E G Y Preferred Futuring
  • 15. © Take moment to think: “Given what we know about the Driving Forces, in your assigned domain, what are the three to five key forces, and the preferred future for the Association and its members, given those forces? After some time to think quietly, share your images around the group. Discuss the following: What are the top 3 minimum to 5 maximum driving forces out to 2025? Place these in one column. What is the preferred future – response, initiative, image, for the association and members. Place these in the other column. Report when called upon. Images of the Future
  • 16. © The future is not something that just happens to us. The future is not something that just happens to us. Glen Hiemstra Futurist.com Glen Hiemstra Futurist.com The future is something we do. The future is something we do.
  • 17. © 10 Most Important Implications of future trends for Engineering 1. Confluence of peak oil, population waves, and emerging economies will demand new energy technologies and rapid scaling up of existing technologies. Example: Trinity Industries, manufacturer of structural wind towers, sees a backlog of $1.6 billion in orders, requiring engineering of site installations. A company without energy expertise is at a disadvantage in next 20 years. 2. Public desire for sustainability is on the rise at the same time that the infrastructure is crumbling; the next infrastructure build-out and repair will have to address issues of conservation and sustainability in methods and materials. Public education campaigns will be integral. 3. US engineering firms, 75% of which have 5 or fewer employees, will face steep competition from consolidation, and from the emerging markets, such as India and China, who are graduating engineers on the orders of magnitude greater than the US. While many will survive in special niches, most may be better served by seeking consolidation. 4. The half-life of knowledge, the point at which half of an engineer’s knowledge has become obsolete is estimated to be as little as five years. To remain competitive, ongoing education will need to become an even more fixed component of the engineers’ career. In the education arena, the U.S. is essentially ceding eventual engineering leadership to other countries which are educating far more engineers than is the U.S. 5. Adapting the workplace for aging workers will be especially important for the engineering industry, in order to not lose their value and experience in the face of rising competition from developing countries, and a shortage of new talent locally. 6. On the management side, for companies to remain competitive, engineering process knowledge must move into the realm of business and enterprise strategy. Engineers who know how to communicate the knowledge content of their processes and data will be able to direct this trend. 7. Trends in private investment in engineering, especially in upcoming infrastructure spending, will require that engineering firms have the business knowledge to take advantage of the capitalization, or be left out of the boom. This means knowing how to seek and work with private equity, as well as managing public-private partnerships. 8. Integrative technologies, such as mechatronics applications, will continue to evolve, compelling continued integration of engineering disciplines. Emerging technologies, especially nanotechnology, means a looming materials revolution and the opportunity to reinvent products and services. 9. Similarly, the evolving designs of homes and communities of the future will require sophisticated integration of emerging technologies, from smart-homes to smart-grids. 10. As climate change leaves some of the world’s poorest communities vulnerable to disruption, engineering initiatives that can combine scalable technologies with humanitarian concerns will become important actors in the alleviation of human suffering. Engineering firm ethics standards will enlarge to include sustainability, community design, and social justice. Glen Hiemstra & Amy Frazier, 2008
  • 18. © Nanotechnology Not just small things, but things with different properties because of nanoscale
  • 19. © “Nanoengineering” of concreteMacroMicroNano What do we want in our structures? Functional • Mechanical Properties • Workability • Durability • Safety (e.g. Fire) Aesthetic: • Form • Texture (Surface Properties) • Color • … Costs • Fast Construction • Low Maintenance Costs “Concrete à la carte?” Nanoengineer Random Packing Limit = 0.64 No. of contact = 6/per sphere Packing Density = 0.74 No. of contact = 12/per sphere Source: Franz-Josef Ulm Massachusetts Institute of Technology
  • 20. © ProtoType Bridge Prototype Bridge Development Sponsor: FHWA (Joey Hartmann) Design: MIT Contractor: Prestress Services, Kentucky Material: DUCTAL Source: Franz-Josef Ulm Massachusetts Institute of Technology
  • 21. © Konarka Technologies, Technology Review July/August 2004 NanoSolar.com
  • 22. ©William Calvin, Global Fever
  • 23. © 17% Increase = All Electric Fleet
  • 24. © 632 Nov. 2008
  • 25. ©
  • 26. © 980 square feet for 3.4 people 1950 Average New Home
  • 27. © 1960’s
  • 28. © 1970’s
  • 29. © 1980’s
  • 30. © 1990’s
  • 31. © 2000’s
  • 32. © NOW: 5,000-8,000 Sq. Ft. Homes For 2.6 people
  • 33. © 1,500 pounds 1973 Honda Civic
  • 34. © 2,806 pounds 2008 Honda Civic
  • 35. ©
  • 36. © The meta-cycle of suburban development, including “housing” and all its accessories in roads and chain stores, is hitting the wall of peak oil. The suburban build out is over. This will come as an agonizing surprise to many. The failure to make infinite suburbanization the permanent basis for an economy will rock our society for years to come. - James Howard Kunstler
  • 37. © Millions of PeopleMillions of People MALE FEMALE Age Wave In Action 895 Days until the first Boomer turns 65
  • 38. © Time Online, 7-29.2002 2020THTH Century retirement came to anCentury retirement came to an end in 1990, as the number of olderend in 1990, as the number of older workers began increasing.workers began increasing.
  • 39. © Marc Prensky originated “digital native” term and this list Communicating Sharing Buying & Selling Exchanging Creating Meeting Dating Collecting Coordinating Evaluating Communicating Sharing Buying & Selling Exchanging Creating Meeting Dating Collecting Coordinating Evaluating Digital Natives & Digital Immigrants Gaming Learning Searching Analyzing Growing up Evolving
  • 40. © Environmental tipping points visible
  • 41. © www.williamcalvin.com
  • 42. ©
  • 43. © www.williamcalvin.com
  • 44. ©
  • 45. © June 29, 2008
  • 46. © www.williamcalvin.com
  • 47. ©
  • 48. © “By 2010, the production of the fuel that has driven the world’s economy will start to rapidly decline. This will conflict with the steadily increasing demand for oil. The collision of these two trends will lead to shortages and increased prices, providing a strong incentive to shift to alternative fuel resources…Due to unequal distribution through the world of oil and gas supply and consumption, [the upcoming] transition will result in significant shifts in global power and wealth.” Ray Leonard,Vice-President-Eurasia, Kuwait Energy Company 2001 and June 27, 2008
  • 49. © Environment & Energy Lesson End of oil and a melting world mean taking green leadership, and the good news is we have most or all of what we need to do this fast: build a grid that downloads and uploads, upgrade our buildings and community design, and we nearly have all the new transportation designs we need
  • 50. © WHAT IS POSSIBLE – Sustainability by Design
  • 51. © Time for breakthrough Thinking: Alt-Energy Research Center Masdar, Abu Dabai: 50,000, Solar, Desalination, Elevated light rail, Mollor Sky Cars, Pedestrian
  • 52. © Re-invent Energy before 2050 Increase efficiency of new appliances and buildings to achieve Zero-carbon emissions, resulting in 25% total reduction by 2050. Add 3 million 1-megawatt windmills globally, 75 times current capacity. Add 3000 gigawatts of peak solar photovoltaic, 1000 times current capacity. No net new net coal power plants Shift 2 billion cars from 30 mpg to 60 mpg equiv. by 2050. Decrease driving for 2 billion cars in half Develop Zero-emission vehicles From Robert Socolow, Princeton, Energy Wedges
  • 53. © 21st Century Vision21st Century Vision Make solar energy affordable Provide energy from fusion Develop carbon sequestration methods Manage the nitrogen cycle Provide access to clean water Restore and improve urban infrastructure Advance health informatics Engineer better medicines Reverse-engineer the brain Prevent nuclear terror Secure cyberspace Enhance virtual reality Advance personalized learning Make solar energy affordable Provide energy from fusion Develop carbon sequestration methods Manage the nitrogen cycle Provide access to clean water Restore and improve urban infrastructure Advance health informatics Engineer better medicines Reverse-engineer the brain Prevent nuclear terror Secure cyberspace Enhance virtual reality Advance personalized learning http://www.engineeringchallenges.org/
  • 54. © Vertical Agriculture Mithun Architects
  • 55. © Needs US spends 2.4% gdp, vs. EU 5% and China 9% on infrastructure National commission transportation policy recs $225 billion/yr, for 50 years 47000 jobs for each billion

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