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Future of Housing, with Glen Hiemstra, Futurist.com

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Glen Hiemstra of Futurist.com delivers keynote speech to Colorado Housing Conference, on the future of housing and need to reinvent housing

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Future of Housing, with Glen Hiemstra, Futurist.com

  1. 1. Lessons from the Future for Housing Colorado Housing Conference, Oct. 16 2008 © Copyright © 2008 Glen Hiemstra, Futurist.com, All Rights Reserved For Presentation Contact 425-576-1441 1
  2. 2. Lessons from the Future for Housing Colorado Housing Conference, Oct. 16 2008 © Copyright © 2008 Glen Hiemstra, Futurist.com, All Rights Reserved For Presentation Contact 425-576-1441 2
  3. 3. Lessons from the Future for Housing Colorado Housing Conference, Oct. 16 2008 Never Sold Homes © Copyright © 2008 Glen Hiemstra, Futurist.com, All Rights Reserved For Presentation Contact 425-576-1441 3
  4. 4. Lessons from the Future for Housing Colorado Housing Conference, Oct. 16 2008 Green Valley Ranch subdivision, April 4, 2008 © Copyright © 2008 Glen Hiemstra, Futurist.com, All Rights Reserved For Presentation Contact 425-576-1441 4
  5. 5. Lessons from the Future for Housing Colorado Housing Conference, Oct. 16 2008 Ap 5 2008 © Copyright © 2008 Glen Hiemstra, Futurist.com, All Rights Reserved For Presentation Contact 425-576-1441 5
  6. 6. Lessons from the Future for Housing Colorado Housing Conference, Oct. 16 2008 California Florida Colorado © Copyright © 2008 Glen Hiemstra, Futurist.com, All Rights Reserved For Presentation Contact 425-576-1441 6
  7. 7. Lessons from the Future for Housing Colorado Housing Conference, Oct. 16 2008 In healthier times finance was but one part of the economy, the means for raising capital investment to apply to productive capacity. For the past two decades, we have allowed it to become an end in itself. - James Howard Kunstler © Copyright © 2008 Glen Hiemstra, Futurist.com, All Rights Reserved For Presentation Contact 425-576-1441 7
  8. 8. Lessons from the Future for Housing Colorado Housing Conference, Oct. 16 2008 ARM Reset Schedule Jan07 Jan08 Jan09 Credit Suisse 12 March 2007 © Copyright © 2008 Glen Hiemstra, Futurist.com, All Rights Reserved For Presentation Contact 425-576-1441 8
  9. 9. Lessons from the Future for Housing Colorado Housing Conference, Oct. 16 2008 Jan10 Jan11 Jan2012 © Copyright © 2008 Glen Hiemstra, Futurist.com, All Rights Reserved For Presentation Contact 425-576-1441 9
  10. 10. Lessons from the Future for Housing Colorado Housing Conference, Oct. 16 2008 Our Situation Debt / liquidity Real estate revaluation Long term investment priorities Health Care Energy / Climate Change Infrastructure Education Culture © Copyright © 2008 Glen Hiemstra, Futurist.com, All Rights Reserved For Presentation Contact 425-576-1441 10
  11. 11. Lessons from the Future for Housing Colorado Housing Conference, Oct. 16 2008 Society A Society B Everyone lives in 4,000- Everyone lives in 2,500- square-foot houses and square-foot houses and has no free time for has 45 minutes available exercise each day. for exercise each day. Everyone lives in 4,000- Everyone lives in 2,500- square-foot houses and square-foot houses and has time to get together has time to get together with friends one evening with friends four evenings each month. each month. Everyone lives in 4,000- Everyone lives in 2,500- square-foot houses and square-foot houses and has one week of has four weeks of vacation each year. vacation each year. Adapted from Robert H. Frank, Falling Behind © Copyright © 2008 Glen Hiemstra, Futurist.com, All Rights Reserved For Presentation Contact 425-576-1441 11
  12. 12. Lessons from the Future for Housing Colorado Housing Conference, Oct. 16 2008 Largest Fries Option 1970 2007 2.6 oz 7 oz © Copyright © 2008 Glen Hiemstra, Futurist.com, All Rights Reserved For Presentation Contact 425-576-1441 12
  13. 13. Lessons from the Future for Housing Colorado Housing Conference, Oct. 16 2008 1972 Honda Civic 1,500 pounds © Copyright © 2008 Glen Hiemstra, Futurist.com, All Rights Reserved For Presentation Contact 425-576-1441 13
  14. 14. Lessons from the Future for Housing Colorado Housing Conference, Oct. 16 2008 2007 Honda Civic 2,904 pounds © Copyright © 2008 Glen Hiemstra, Futurist.com, All Rights Reserved For Presentation Contact 425-576-1441 14
  15. 15. Lessons from the Future for Housing Colorado Housing Conference, Oct. 16 2008 © Copyright © 2008 Glen Hiemstra, Futurist.com, All Rights Reserved For Presentation Contact 425-576-1441 15
  16. 16. Lessons from the Future for Housing Colorado Housing Conference, Oct. 16 2008 Average Store Sizes Grocery stores: 1994 35,100 sq. ft. 2006 48,750 sq. ft. Current “Supercenter” sizes: Wal-Mart Supercenter 197,000 sq. ft. Fred Meyer 150,000 sq. ft. SuperTarget 174,000 sq. ft. © Copyright © 2008 Glen Hiemstra, Futurist.com, All Rights Reserved For Presentation Contact 425-576-1441 16
  17. 17. Lessons from the Future for Housing Colorado Housing Conference, Oct. 16 2008 Context Matters It’s different from envy. It’s natural to want to keep up with surroundings/peer group. Context has a “trickle-down” effect. When a pro athlete builds a 20,000 square foot house, their peers build 12,000 square foot houses. Middle-income people don’t care about 12,000 square foot houses. But when a middle-income person builds a 5,000 square foot house, 1,500sf starts to sound tiny… so others build & buy 3,500 square foot houses. Robert H. Frank, Falling Behind © Copyright © 2008 Glen Hiemstra, Futurist.com, All Rights Reserved For Presentation Contact 425-576-1441 17
  18. 18. Lessons from the Future for Housing Colorado Housing Conference, Oct. 16 2008 1950 Average New Home 980 square feet for 3.4 people © Copyright © 2008 Glen Hiemstra, Futurist.com, All Rights Reserved For Presentation Contact 425-576-1441 18
  19. 19. Lessons from the Future for Housing Colorado Housing Conference, Oct. 16 2008 1960’s © Copyright © 2008 Glen Hiemstra, Futurist.com, All Rights Reserved For Presentation Contact 425-576-1441 19
  20. 20. Lessons from the Future for Housing Colorado Housing Conference, Oct. 16 2008 1970’s © Copyright © 2008 Glen Hiemstra, Futurist.com, All Rights Reserved For Presentation Contact 425-576-1441 20
  21. 21. Lessons from the Future for Housing Colorado Housing Conference, Oct. 16 2008 1980’s © Copyright © 2008 Glen Hiemstra, Futurist.com, All Rights Reserved For Presentation Contact 425-576-1441 21
  22. 22. Lessons from the Future for Housing Colorado Housing Conference, Oct. 16 2008 1990’s © Copyright © 2008 Glen Hiemstra, Futurist.com, All Rights Reserved For Presentation Contact 425-576-1441 22
  23. 23. Lessons from the Future for Housing Colorado Housing Conference, Oct. 16 2008 2000’s © Copyright © 2008 Glen Hiemstra, Futurist.com, All Rights Reserved For Presentation Contact 425-576-1441 23
  24. 24. Lessons from the Future for Housing Colorado Housing Conference, Oct. 16 2008 NOW: 5,000-8,000 Sq. Ft. Homes For 2.6 people © Copyright © 2008 Glen Hiemstra, Futurist.com, All Rights Reserved For Presentation Contact 425-576-1441 24
  25. 25. Lessons from the Future for Housing Colorado Housing Conference, Oct. 16 2008 What Is Your Image Of The Future? © Copyright © 2008 Glen Hiemstra, Futurist.com, All Rights Reserved For Presentation Contact 425-576-1441 25
  26. 26. Lessons from the Future for Housing Colorado Housing Conference, Oct. 16 2008 Lessons from the Future At the end of the great suburban build-out Peak oil and climate crisis Income inequality Age wave We are at the beginning of a reinvention of the home © Copyright © 2008 Glen Hiemstra, Futurist.com, All Rights Reserved For Presentation Contact 425-576-1441 26
  27. 27. Lessons from the Future for Housing Colorado Housing Conference, Oct. 16 2008 The meta-cycle of suburban development, including “housing” and all its accessories in roads and chain stores, is hitting the wall of peak oil. The suburban build out is over. This will come as an agonizing surprise to many. The failure to make infinite suburbanization the permanent basis for an economy will rock our society for years to come. - James Howard Kunstler 2007 © Copyright © 2008 Glen Hiemstra, Futurist.com, All Rights Reserved For Presentation Contact 425-576-1441 27
  28. 28. Lessons from the Future for Housing Colorado Housing Conference, Oct. 16 2008 © Copyright © 2008 Glen Hiemstra, Futurist.com, All Rights Reserved For Presentation Contact 425-576-1441 28
  29. 29. Lessons from the Future for Housing Colorado Housing Conference, Oct. 16 2008 Result: Less Oil for Export Net Oil Exports © Copyright © 2008 Glen Hiemstra, Futurist.com, All Rights Reserved For Presentation Contact 425-576-1441 29
  30. 30. Lessons from the Future for Housing Colorado Housing Conference, Oct. 16 2008 “By 2010, the production of the fuel that has driven the world’s economy will start to rapidly decline. This will conflict with the steadily increasing demand for oil. The collision of these two trends will lead to shortages and increased prices, providing a strong incentive to shift to alternative fuel resources…Due to unequal distribution through the world of oil and gas supply and consumption, [the upcoming] transition will result in significant shifts in global power and wealth.” Ray Leonard,Vice-President-Eurasia, Kuwait Energy Company 2001 and June 27, 2008 © Copyright © 2008 Glen Hiemstra, Futurist.com, All Rights Reserved For Presentation Contact 425-576-1441 30
  31. 31. Lessons from the Future for Housing Colorado Housing Conference, Oct. 16 2008 Environmental tipping points visible © Copyright © 2008 Glen Hiemstra, Futurist.com, All Rights Reserved For Presentation Contact 425-576-1441 31
  32. 32. Lessons from the Future for Housing Colorado Housing Conference, Oct. 16 2008 Arbor Day Planting Map © Copyright © 2008 Glen Hiemstra, Futurist.com, All Rights Reserved For Presentation Contact 425-576-1441 32
  33. 33. Lessons from the Future for Housing Colorado Housing Conference, Oct. 16 2008 © Copyright © 2008 Glen Hiemstra, Futurist.com, All Rights Reserved For Presentation Contact 425-576-1441 33
  34. 34. Lessons from the Future for Housing Colorado Housing Conference, Oct. 16 2008 www.williamcalvin.com © Copyright © 2008 Glen Hiemstra, Futurist.com, All Rights Reserved For Presentation Contact 425-576-1441 34
  35. 35. Lessons from the Future for Housing Colorado Housing Conference, Oct. 16 2008 © Copyright © 2008 Glen Hiemstra, Futurist.com, All Rights Reserved For Presentation Contact 425-576-1441 35
  36. 36. Lessons from the Future for Housing Colorado Housing Conference, Oct. 16 2008 www.williamcalvin.com © Copyright © 2008 Glen Hiemstra, Futurist.com, All Rights Reserved For Presentation Contact 425-576-1441 36
  37. 37. Lessons from the Future for Housing Colorado Housing Conference, Oct. 16 2008 Environment & Energy Lesson End of cheap oil and a melting world mean taking green leadership, and the good news is we have most or all of what we need to do this fast: build a grid that downloads and uploads, upgrade our buildings and community design, and we nearly have all the new community & transportation designs we need © Copyright © 2008 Glen Hiemstra, Futurist.com, All Rights Reserved For Presentation Contact 425-576-1441 37
  38. 38. Lessons from the Future for Housing Colorado Housing Conference, Oct. 16 2008 Konarka Technologies, Technology Review July/August 2004 © NanoSolar.com Copyright © 2008 Glen Hiemstra, Futurist.com, All Rights Reserved For Presentation Contact 425-576-1441 38
  39. 39. Lessons from the Future for Housing Colorado Housing Conference, Oct. 16 2008 Grid Power Heiner Gärtner saved the family farm by turning it into a solar electricity plant with 10,050 solar panels. 200 Acre Farm, SE Germany $600,000 per year in electricity sales 1000 pigs, waste into biogas © Copyright © 2008 Glen Hiemstra, Futurist.com, All Rights Reserved For Presentation Contact 425-576-1441 39
  40. 40. Lessons from the Future for Housing Colorado Housing Conference, Oct. 16 2008 Average Incomes Fell for Most in 2000-2005 NYT August 21, 2007 Nearly half of Americans reported incomes of less than $30,000, and two-thirds make less than $50,000. © Copyright © 2008 Glen Hiemstra, Futurist.com, All Rights Reserved For Presentation Contact 425-576-1441 40
  41. 41. Lessons from the Future for Housing Colorado Housing Conference, Oct. 16 2008 Change in Before Tax Income 1949-1979 +116 +100 +111 +114 +99 +86 120% 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% Bottom Second Middle Fourth Top 20% Top 5% 20% 20% 20% 20% Census Bureau © Copyright © 2008 Glen Hiemstra, Futurist.com, All Rights Reserved For Presentation Contact 425-576-1441 41
  42. 42. Lessons from the Future for Housing Colorado Housing Conference, Oct. 16 2008 Change in Before Tax Income 1979-2003 +3.5 +9.1 +12.6 +21.5 +45.7 +68 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Bottom Second Middle Fourth Top 20% Top 5% 20% 20% 20% 20% Census Bureau © Copyright © 2008 Glen Hiemstra, Futurist.com, All Rights Reserved For Presentation Contact 425-576-1441 42
  43. 43. Lessons from the Future for Housing Colorado Housing Conference, Oct. 16 2008 Inequality’s effects Health Education Public Safety Happiness © Copyright © 2008 Glen Hiemstra, Futurist.com, All Rights Reserved For Presentation Contact 425-576-1441 43
  44. 44. Lessons from the Future for Housing Colorado Housing Conference, Oct. 16 2008 What has the middle-class done to keep up? Working longer hours Reduced savings Increased indebtedness Longer commutes Growing sleep deprivation Public service cutbacks Robert H. Frank, Falling Behind © Copyright © 2008 Glen Hiemstra, Futurist.com, All Rights Reserved For Presentation Contact 425-576-1441 44
  45. 45. Lessons from the Future for Housing Colorado Housing Conference, Oct. 16 2008 Income and wealth inequality have been rising sharply in the United States for several decades, exacting a heavy toll on middle-income families. When market forces cause inequality to grow, public policy in most countries pushes in the opposite direction. That was also once the pattern in the United States. But more recently, we have responded by cutting taxes for the wealthy and reducing services for the needy. Historians will someday struggle to explain this puzzling reversal. - Robert H. Frank Robert H. Frank, Falling Behind © Copyright © 2008 Glen Hiemstra, Futurist.com, All Rights Reserved For Presentation Contact 425-576-1441 45
  46. 46. Lessons from the Future for Housing Colorado Housing Conference, Oct. 16 2008 Age Wave In Action MALE FEMALE Millions of People 806 Days until the first Boomer turns 65 © Copyright © 2008 Glen Hiemstra, Futurist.com, All Rights Reserved For Presentation Contact 425-576-1441 46
  47. 47. Lessons from the Future for Housing Colorado Housing Conference, Oct. 16 2008 Age Wave Implication Increasingly, 65-somethings will be facing large homes with dark bedrooms, lots of yard work, and a rusting basketball hoop over the garage. How many graying boomers will actually live in those 5000sf McMansions? Will you? But who else can afford them? © Copyright © 2008 Glen Hiemstra, Futurist.com, All Rights Reserved For Presentation Contact 425-576-1441 47
  48. 48. Lessons from the Future for Housing Colorado Housing Conference, Oct. 16 2008 Reinventing the Home TECHNOLOGY Green evolutions Nanotech and Materials IT and Automation Re-thinking Processes: the need for order of magnitude improvement in cost © Copyright © 2008 Glen Hiemstra, Futurist.com, All Rights Reserved For Presentation Contact 425-576-1441 48
  49. 49. Lessons from the Future for Housing Colorado Housing Conference, Oct. 16 2008 Greening the Home Green evolutions 22% of electricity Energy used for lighting in Lighting U.S. Switch to Appliances alternatives saves 80 coal plants or Roof-top Solar 30 nuclear plants Passive energy Integrated Wind energy Controls – 50-80% Non-destructive tear- savings downs Advanced gas hot ….. water heater – 20-30% savings © Copyright © 2008 Glen Hiemstra, Futurist.com, All Rights Reserved For Presentation Contact 425-576-1441 49
  50. 50. Lessons from the Future for Housing Colorado Housing Conference, Oct. 16 2008 Aging the Home 1st Floor Master Rocker switches Dual Suites Adjustable counters Wide hall ways Ramps, slopes Decreasing Contrasting size & cost by Steps one-half © Copyright © 2008 Glen Hiemstra, Futurist.com, All Rights Reserved For Presentation Contact 425-576-1441 50
  51. 51. Lessons from the Future for Housing Colorado Housing Conference, Oct. 16 2008 ryderpictures.com © Copyright © 2008 Glen Hiemstra, Futurist.com, All Rights Reserved For Presentation Contact 425-576-1441 51
  52. 52. Lessons from the Future for Housing Colorado Housing Conference, Oct. 16 2008 ryderpictures.com © Copyright © 2008 Glen Hiemstra, Futurist.com, All Rights Reserved For Presentation Contact 425-576-1441 52
  53. 53. Lessons from the Future for Housing Colorado Housing Conference, Oct. 16 2008 ryderpictures.com © Copyright © 2008 Glen Hiemstra, Futurist.com, All Rights Reserved For Presentation Contact 425-576-1441 53
  54. 54. Lessons from the Future for Housing Colorado Housing Conference, Oct. 16 2008 Flexcrete ryderpictures.com © Copyright © 2008 Glen Hiemstra, Futurist.com, All Rights Reserved For Presentation Contact 425-576-1441 54
  55. 55. Lessons from the Future for Housing Colorado Housing Conference, Oct. 16 2008 ryderpictures.com © Copyright © 2008 Glen Hiemstra, Futurist.com, All Rights Reserved For Presentation Contact 425-576-1441 55
  56. 56. Lessons from the Future for Housing Colorado Housing Conference, Oct. 16 2008 The Small House Movement Mithun Architects Zenkaya Unico Properties inHabit project © Copyright © 2008 Glen Hiemstra, Futurist.com, All Rights Reserved For Presentation Contact 425-576-1441 56
  57. 57. Lessons from the Future for Housing Colorado Housing Conference, Oct. 16 2008 LA 1950 2007 74 homes 2017 2027 Beanfields 2037 2047 2057 LA 2067 Paul Glover dream, http://www.ithacahours.com/losangeles.html © Copyright © 2008 Glen Hiemstra, Futurist.com, All Rights Reserved For Presentation Contact 425-576-1441 57
  58. 58. Lessons from the Future for Housing Colorado Housing Conference, Oct. 16 2008 Conclusion: It is Time to Reinvent Home and Community Energy & Environment Homes Could Become… Challenges The center for living, Facing turbulent, unequal working, caring economic time In communities going A world in which back to future 60,000,000 new people Nanotech and Materials per year will need shelter, IT and Automation including the aging Need: Breakthrough 30% turnover in housing thinking in design & cost stock at a minimum © Copyright © 2008 Glen Hiemstra, Futurist.com, All Rights Reserved For Presentation Contact 425-576-1441 58
  59. 59. Lessons from the Future for Housing Colorado Housing Conference, Oct. 16 2008 Imagine a place which leaves you enough time to do other things. Imagine a place which will leave you enough money to enjoy your life. Imagine a place where your soul is at peace. This place already exists. It is time to reinvent housing… for all of us. Zenkaya.com © Copyright © 2008 Glen Hiemstra, Futurist.com, All Rights Reserved For Presentation Contact 425-576-1441 59
  60. 60. Lessons from the Future for Housing Colorado Housing Conference, Oct. 16 2008 © Copyright © 2008 Glen Hiemstra, Futurist.com, All Rights Reserved For Presentation Contact 425-576-1441 60

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