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Emerging Markets And World Economy
 

Emerging Markets And World Economy

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CONSTRUCCION POLMON

CONSTRUCCION POLMON

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    Emerging Markets And World Economy Emerging Markets And World Economy Presentation Transcript

    • EM and the World Economy: Something is Different this Time Visit to the Central Bank of Peru Leonardo Leiderman October 17, 2002
    • Flight to Quality – Increased Risk Aversion
    • An increase of EM and High Yield Bond Spreads
    • Portfolio Flows are Drying Up
    • Capital Flows Did Not Recover From the 1997-98 Crisis
    • Funds Available to Emerging Markets Have Dried Up
    • Reasons:
      • Burst of Nasdaq Bubble.
      • Geopolitical risks.
      • Loss of investor’s confidence (corporate accounting scandals).
      • A doubtful US recovery.
    • A Reflection of Fundamental Problems
    • Policy is in Place and Has Been Flexible
    • The Fiscal Stance has Gone From Surplus to Deficit
    • Growth is Well Below Potential
    • Is There Any Hope From Europe and Japan?
    • EM: Adverse Conditions in 2002…
      • Flight to quality.
      • Anemic world growth
      • Commodity prices.
      … With No Help From Internal EM Factors:
      • Argentina
      • Brazil
      • Rest of LATAM
      • Turkey
    • The Majority of Non-Oil Commodity Prices Remain Depressed
    • EM: Something is Different Now—Exchange Rate Flexibility…
    • EM: Something Else is Different This Time-SELECTIVITY
    • Selectivity Applies to the Real Sector (Growth) As Well
    • EM and the World Economy: Something is Different this Time Visit to the Central Bank of Peru Leonardo Leiderman October 17, 2002