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Agricultural Adaptation to Climate Change in the Developing World: What will it Cost?

Agricultural Adaptation to Climate Change in the Developing World: What will it Cost?
IFPRI Policy Seminar
October 5, 2009
Washington, DC

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Climate Change and Agriculture: Impacts and costs of adaptation Climate Change and Agriculture: Impacts and costs of adaptation Presentation Transcript

  • Climate Change and Agriculture Impacts and costs of adaptation Gerald C. Nelson Senior Research Fellow Environment and Production Technology Division 5 October 2009
  • Acknowledgements  The IFPRI authors • Gerald C. Nelson, Mark W. Rosegrant, Jawoo Koo, Richard Robertson, Timothy Sulser, Tingju Zhu, Claudia Ringler, Siwa Msangi, Amanda Palazzo, Miroslav Batka, Marilia Magalhaes, Rowena Valmonte-Santos, Mandy Ewing, and David Lee  Thanks also to • Ken Strzepek and Adam Schlosser of MIT for downscaled climate scenarios • Urvashi Narain, Sergio Margulis, Bob Schneider, and other members of the EACC global study report of the World Bank • ADB staff and reviewers for valuable comments and insights on the ADB report Page 2
  • Preview of Results  Unchecked climate change will result in a 20 percent increase in malnourished children by 2050  Agricultural productivity expenditures of over $7 Billion per year are needed to compensate Page 3 View slide
  • Outline  Climate Change Modeling Methodology  Impacts • Yields, prices, production, trade • Calorie consumption, child malnutrition  Adaptation Costs • Need to reduce malnutrition  Conclusions and Policy Recommendations Page 4 View slide
  • MODELING METHODOLOGY FOR CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS
  • Location-specific Biological and Socioeconomic Modeling is Critical  Climate change brings location-specific changes • in precipitation, temperature and variability to • local agronomic and market conditions  Modeling challenge – To reconcile • limited resolution of macro-level economic models with • crop model detail  Result • More realistic modeling of climate change effects (biological and economic) on global/regional agriculture Page 6
  • Global Change Model Components  Two GCM climate scenarios to show variability • NCAR (wetter) and CSIRO (drier)  DSSAT crop model • to estimate biological effects  ISPAM data • to show where to estimate effects  IMPACT2009 • To integrate biological effects from crop and hydrology results with detailed economic model
  • CLIMATE DATA: TODAY AND SCENARIOS FOR TOMORROW Page 8
  • Temperatures have been rising… Source: http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/ Page 9
  • … and could increase much more Source: Figure 10.4 in Meehl, et al. (2007)
  • 5 Recent emissions Observed emissions are well above A2 0 1850 simulated emissions 2100 1900 1950 2000 2050 10 Actual emissions: CDIAC Actual emissions: EIA SRES (2000) 9 CO2 Emissions (GtC y-1) 450ppm stabilisation 2008 A2 aver. 2007 650ppm stabilisation 2006 growth rate for A1FI (Avgs.) 2000-2010 2005 8 A1B A1T 2.13 % A2 7 B1 Observed B2 2000-2007 A2 3.5% 6 5 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 Page 11 Raupach et al 2007, PNAS; Global Carbon Project 2009, update
  • AVERAGE ANNUAL PRECIPITATION CHANGE IN CLIMATE SCENARIOS DIFFER GREATLY Watch Sub-Saharan Africa, the Amazon, and South Asia
  • Change in Precipitation (mm), 2000-2050 CSIRO, A2, AR4
  • Change in Precipitation (mm), 2000-2050 NCAR, A2, AR4
  • CLIMATE CHANGE YIELD EFFECTS
  • Climate change reduces average yields Crop/ Sub Saharan East Asia and South Asia management Africa Pacific system Irrigated rice NCAR -14.1 -19.8 -15.5 CSIRO -11.4 -13.0 -17.5 Rainfed maize NCAR -4.6 1.5 -7.8 CSIRO -2.4 -3.9 -2.9 Rainfed wheat NCAR -21.9 -14.8 -44.4 CSIRO -19.3 -16.1 -43.7 Page 16
  • AVERAGES CONCEAL GREAT VARIATION Page 17
  • Irrigated rice NCAR A2
  • Irrigated rice CSIRO A2
  • Rainfed rice NCAR A2
  • Rainfed rice CSIRO A2
  • Rainfed maize NCAR A2
  • Rainfed maize CSIRO A2
  • FOOD SUPPLY, DEMAND AND TRADE RESULTS IMPACT2009 Biophysical effects from crop and hydrology models and economic effects from global agriculture model
  • Climate Change Makes Food Price Increases Greater Greater price 2000 2050 No climate change 2050 CSIRO NoCF 2050 NCAR NoCF increases with 450 Prices increasechange climate 400 without climate Dollars Per Metric Ton 350 change 300 250 200 150 100 50 - Rice Wheat Maize Soybeans Page 25
  • Rice Production Page 26
  • Wheat Production Climate change Large production eliminates those increases in some regions withoutgains climate change Page 27
  • Maize Production Page 28
  • Cereal Trade Flows Note that CSIRO results in more exports from developed countries … and therefore more imports into developing countries Note change in direction for the different scenarios Page 29
  • Climate Change Increases Childhood Malnutrition 80 2000 2050 No CC 2050 with CC 70 Without climate change, child 60 malnutrition falls except in With climate change, child Millions of Children Sub Saharan Africa 50 malnutrition increases everywhere 40 30 20 10 - South Asia East Asia and Europe and Latin America Middle East Sub Saharan Pacific Central Asia and and North Africa Caribbean Africa Page 30
  • CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION COSTS
  • Our Definition of Agricultural Adaptation  Agricultural investments that reduce child malnutrition with climate change to the level with no climate change  What types of investments are considered? • Agricultural research • Irrigation expansion and efficiency improvements • Rural roads Page 32
  • Adaptation Costs are over $7 billion  Required additional annual expenditure • Wetter NCAR scenario = US$7.1 billion • Drier CSIRO scenario = US$7.3 billion  Regional level • Sub-Saharan Africa - $3 billion (40% of the total), mainly for rural roads • South Asia - US$1.5 billion, research and irrigation efficiency • Latin America and Caribbean - US$1.2 billion per year, research • East Asia and the Pacific - $1 billion per year, research and irrigation efficiency Page 33
  • CONCLUSIONS AND POLICY RECOMMENDATIONS
  • Conclusions  Climate change will have negative impacts • Lower yields • Higher prices • More malnourished children • Changes in trade flows reduce the negative effects  Agriculture is critical for • Poverty reduction • Economic development and • Food security  Large additional expenditures should start now to reduce the adverse impacts of climate change Page 35
  • Policy and Program Recommendations  Design and implement good overall development policies and programs  Recognize that enhanced food security and climate- change adaptation go hand in hand  At least $7 billion per year in additional productivity investments are needed just for climate change adaptation in developing countries Page 36
  • Think and Act Globally and Locally  Global public goods are needed • Improve global data collection, dissemination, and analysis • Make agricultural adaptation a key agenda point within the international climate negotiation process • Complete the Doha Round • Expand international agricultural research  National public goods are needed • Reinvigorate national research and extension programs • Build supporting national infrastructure – roads, etc. • Provide supportive policy environment  Local public goods are needed • Support community-based adaptation strategies Page 37
  • www.ifpri.org Thank you