• Like

Loading…

Flash Player 9 (or above) is needed to view presentations.
We have detected that you do not have it on your computer. To install it, go here.

Climate Change and Agricultural Trade: How effective is reform as an adaptation measure?

  • 1,366 views
Uploaded on

World Bank and WTO: Climate Change and Agriculture Trade - Risks and Responses …

World Bank and WTO: Climate Change and Agriculture Trade - Risks and Responses
September 22, 2009
Washington, DC

  • Full Name Full Name Comment goes here.
    Are you sure you want to
    Your message goes here
    Be the first to comment
    Be the first to like this
No Downloads

Views

Total Views
1,366
On Slideshare
0
From Embeds
0
Number of Embeds
0

Actions

Shares
Downloads
96
Comments
0
Likes
0

Embeds 0

No embeds

Report content

Flagged as inappropriate Flag as inappropriate
Flag as inappropriate

Select your reason for flagging this presentation as inappropriate.

Cancel
    No notes for slide
  • A well known graph, this presents the historical record of rising temperatures since the mid-18th century. The vertical axis indicates an increase on the order of ½- 3/4th degree Celsius over the past 100 years
  • When we use climate change models with a range of possible GHG emissions the outcomes by the end of this century range from near stabilization if all GHG emissions stop today (the orange line to over 3 degrees more (the A2 red line).

Transcript

  • 1. Climate Change and Agricultural Trade: How effective is reform as an adaptation measure?
    Gerald C. Nelson
    Senior Research Fellow
    Environment and Production Technology Division
    World Bank and WTO Climate Change and Agriculture TradeRisks and Responses
    22 September 2009
  • 2. Preview of Results
    Climate change alters comparative advantage
    Agricultural trade flows change dramatically
    Unchecked climate change will result in a 20 percent increase in malnourished children by 2050
    Reduced agricultural protection mitigates the negative effects some
    Results still considered preliminary. IFPRI Food Policy Review released October 5 at IFPRI
    Page 2
  • 3. Outline
    Climate Change Modeling Methodology
    Impacts: Crop Supply, Demand, and Trade
    Climate Change Adaptation Costs
    The Effects of Changes in Protection
    Page 3
  • 4. MODELING METHODOLOGY FOR CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS
  • 5. Integrating Location-specific Biophysical and Socioeconomic Modeling is Critical
    Climate change will bring location-specific changes
    in precipitation, temperature and variability
    Need to reconcile
    limited resolution of macro-level economic models that operate through equilibrium-driven relationships with
    detailed models of dynamic biophysical processes – crop models
    Provide more realistic modeling of climate change effects (biophysical and economic) on global/regional agriculture
    Page 5
  • 6. Global Change Model Components
    GCM climate scenarios
    NCAR (wetter) and CSIRO (drier) using SRES A2
    DSSAT crop model
    Biophysical crop response to temp and precip
    ISPAM
    Spatial distribution of crops based on crop calendars, soil characteristics, climate of 20 most important crops
    IMPACT2009
    Global food supply demand trade model. Results to 2050 with global hydrology
  • 7. Page 7
    Climate Change Affects Comparative Advantage, Rice Importing Country
    Rice
    Rice importsWheat exports, 2000
    Increases in rice imports and wheat exports, 2050
    R2000
    R2050
    W2000
    Wheat
    W2050
  • 8. Page 8
    Climate Change Affects Comparative Advantage, Rice Exporting Country
    Rice
    Rice exportsWheat imports, 2000
    Key point: Climate change might increase or decrease trade flow. It depends on
    • Biophysical determinants of relative advantage
    • 9. Socioeconomic determinants of demand
    Reduction in rice exports and wheat imports, 2050
    R2000
    R2050
    W2000
    Wheat
    W2050
  • 10. Rising average temperatures
    Page 9
    Source: http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/
  • 11. … could increase much more
    Page 10
    Source: Figure 10.4 in Meehl, et al. (2007)
  • 12. Average annual Precipitation Changes BY GCM
    Watch Sub-Saharan Africa, the Amazon, and South Asia
  • 13. Change in Precipitation, 2000-2050CSIRO, A2, AR4
  • 14. Change in Precipitation, 2000-2050NCAR, A2, AR4
  • 15. BIOPHYSICAL PRODUCTION RESULTS
    Climate-change-only effects on yield and area
  • 16. Climate induced percentage change in yield in 2050: Irrigated Rice
    NCAR A2
  • 17. Climate induced percentage change in yield in 2050: Rainfed Rice
    NCAR A2
  • 18. Climate induced percentage change in yield in 2050: Rainfed Maize
    NCAR A2
  • 19. Climate induced percentage change in yield in 2050: Irrigated Wheat
    NCAR A2
  • 20. FOOD SUPPLY AND DEMAND RESULTS
    IMPACT2009Biophysical effects from crop and hydrology models andeconomic effects from global agriculture model
  • 21. Impact on International Food Prices
    Page 20
    Greater price increases with climate change
    Price increases without climate change
  • 22. Climate Change Plus Economic Impacts on Rice Production
    Page 21
  • 23. Impacts on Maize Production
    Page 22
  • 24. Impacts on Wheat Production
    Page 23
  • 25. Impacts on Cereal Trade Flows
    Page 24
    CSIRO developing country imports are about 150 million mt
  • 26. Impact on Per Capita Calorie Availability
    Page 25
    Per capita calorie availability increases without climate change
    Per capita calorie availability falls with climate change
  • 27. Impact on Childhood Malnutrition
    Page 26
    Child malnutrition falls without climate change except in SSA
    Child malnutrition increases with climate change
  • 28. CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION COSTS
  • 29. Our Definition of Agricultural Adaptation
    Agricultural investments that reduce child malnutrition with climate change to the level with no climate change
    What types of investments considered?
    Agricultural research
    Irrigation expansion and efficiency improvements
    Rural roads
    Page 28
  • 30. Adaptation Costs are Large!
    Required additional annual expenditure
    Wetter NCAR scenario = US$7.1 billion
    Drier CSIRO scenario = US$7.3 billion
    Regional level
    Sub-Saharan Africa - 40% of the total, mainly for rural roads
    South Asia - US$1.5 billion, research and irrigation efficiency
    Latin America and Caribbean - US$1.2 billion per year, research
    East Asia and the Pacific - $1 billion per year, research and irrigation efficiency
    Page 29
  • 31. Developed Country Adaptation Expenditures Help
    With additional investments in the developed countries, spillover effects to the developing world reduce the need for adaptation investments slightly
    NCAR scenario, developing country adaptation costs
    Developing countries investments only -> US$7.1 billion
    With additional developed country productivity investments -> US$6.8 billion
    Page 30
  • 32. What about changes in protection?
    Protection in IMPACT defined as PSE and CSE
    Two experiments
    Double protection – multiply PSE and CSE by 2
    Eliminate protection – set PSE and CSE to 0
    Page 31
  • 33. 2000 Maize Prices, Protection Experiments
    Page 32
    Compare Brazil liberalization
    To France liberalization
    Double protection has greater effect than elimination
  • 34. Results from the Experiments: 2050 Cereal Trade Flow Changes
    Page 33
  • 35. Results from the Experiments: 2050 Child Malnutrition Changes
    Page 34
  • 36. Conclusions
    Climate change will have negative impacts on agricultural production and food security in developing countries
    Agriculture is critical for
    Employment
    Economic development and
    Food security
    Argues for significant expenditures to reduce the adverse impacts of climate change
    Reduced agricultural protection (border and domestic) helps some.
    Page 35
  • 37. www.ifpri.org
    Thank you