The Rostow Model

High Mass
level of development
Consumption
The Drive to
Maturity
Take Off
Pre-conditions
for Take Off
The Traditional
Society
time

The Rostow Model - The Stages of Economic Growth
W. W. Rostow was American.
He developed his model in 1960.
It was based upon the study of 15 mainly
European countries.
He suggested that all countries had the potential
to break the cycle of poverty and develop through
5 linear stages.
Walt Whitman Rostow (1916- 2003)

The Rostow Model - Employment Structure
Primary Sector Secondary Sector Tertiary Sector
The Traditional
Society Vast Majority Very Few Very Few
Pre-conditions
Vast Majority Few Very Few
for Take Off
Take Off Declining Rapid Growth Few
The Drive to
Few Stable Growing Rapidly
Maturity
High Mass
Very Few Declining Vast Majority
Consumption

The Traditional
Society
A subsistence economy based on farming.
Output is consumed by producers rather than traded. Trade is by barter
where goods are exchanged or 'swapped‘.
Agriculture is the most important industry and production is labour
intensive, using only limited quantities of capital.
There is very limited technology or capital to process raw materials or
develop industries and services.

The Traditional
Pre-conditions
forSociety
Take Off
Surpluses for trading emerge supported by an emerging transport
infrastructure.
Agriculture becomes more commercialized and mechanized with
technological improvements.
Savings and investment grow.
Entrepreneurs emerge.
A single industry begins to dominate – often textiles.

The Traditional
Take Off
Society
Industrialization increases, with workers switching form the land to
manufacturing. This may cause large scale rural-urban migration
Growth is concentrated in a few regions of the country and in one or two
industries.
New political and social institutions are evolve to support industrialization.
Airports, roads and railways are built.

The Traditional
The Drive to
Maturity
Society
Growth is now diverse supported by technological innovation. It should be
self sustaining.
Economic development spreads to all parts.
A more complex transport system develops.
Increase in number and types of industry.
Manufacturing expands as early industries decline.
Continued rapid urbanization.

The Traditional
High Mass
Consumption
Society
Rapid expansion of tertiary industry.
Industry shifts to production of durable consumer goods.

UK 1940
High Mass
level of development
USA 1930
Japan 1950
Consumption
n
UK 1850
The Drive to
USA 1920
Japan 1930
Maturity
n
UK 1820
USA 1850 Take Off
Japan 1900
n
UK 1750
Pre-conditions
USA 1800
Japan 1880
for Take Off
n
The Traditional
Society
time

The Rostow Model - Criticisms
The model is outdated (produced in 1960) and oversimplified.
The model assumes that all countries start at the same level and with the
same resources, population, climate etc.
While capital is needed to advance beyond ‘the traditional society’ - often
this capital arrives in the form of a injection of development aid. Debt
repayments can delay and even prevent a country from reaching ‘take off’.
The model underestimates the extent to which the development of some
countries in the past was at the expense of others through colonization
and imperialism.