2009 Property Sector Forecast


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Forecast for the Property Sector in 2009

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2009 Property Sector Forecast

  1. 1. PROPERTY SECTOR FORECAST turn me green
  2. 2. 1 2 3 4 5 6 Introduction Global Financial Crisis What Happened in 2008? Stimulated by Stimulus Package What THEY Say What WE See 2010 - ‘Crystal Ball Stuff’ 7 8 Pricing + Service Relationships Communication Summary Agenda Geoff Gourley Founder Turn Me Green turn me green
  3. 3. Geoffrey Gourley Founder Build Relationships Forecast Strategy and Direction Secure and Convert Opportunities 1 <ul><li>OBJECTIVES </li></ul><ul><li>Overview of 2009 Property Sector Forecast </li></ul><ul><li>Highlight Growth Areas </li></ul><ul><li>Understand Project Opportunities and Needs </li></ul>Introduction turn me green
  4. 4. <ul><li>GLOBAL FINANCIAL CRISIS </li></ul><ul><li>In turbulent times, it is important to keep Australia in perspective. </li></ul><ul><li>Little direct exposure to sub-prime crisis in US. </li></ul><ul><li>We have not seen any nationalisation of our banks or bailouts of our stockmarket. </li></ul><ul><li>Relatively little government intervention in 2008. </li></ul><ul><li>Yes, Australia will suffer along with the rest of the world. However, we will recover quicker and easier than the UK and the US. </li></ul><ul><li>Positives - Federal Government $42Bn Stimulus package and states agreeing to a uniformed set of PPP guidelines, which should assist and, to an extent, stimulate that market. </li></ul><ul><li>Our economy should be able to withstand much of the international pressures, Australia will become more attractive for investment. </li></ul>2 GFC – What Happened in 2008 ? turn me green
  5. 5. <ul><li>K RUDD STIMULUS PACKAGE – Major points in $42 billion mini-budget: </li></ul><ul><li>Senate to hold stimulus inquiry - $42b plan passes lower house - Rudd, premiers meet on package </li></ul><ul><li>$14.7 billion invested in school infrastructure and maintenance, funding for trade training centres </li></ul><ul><li>$6.6 billion to increase the national stock of public and community housing by about 20,000 </li></ul><ul><li>$3.9 billion to provide free insulation to 2.7 million homes and solar hot water rebates </li></ul><ul><li>$890 million to fix regional roads and blackspots, to install railway boom gates and for regional and local government infrastructure </li></ul><ul><li>$2.7 billion small and general business tax break to provide deductions for some equipment purchases before the end of June 2009 </li></ul><ul><li>$12.7 billion for immediate one-off payments to working Australians, families with school-age children, farmers, single income families and for those undergoing training    </li></ul>Stimulated by Stimulus Package 3 turn me green
  6. 6. 4 <ul><li>PROPERTY SECTOR FORECAST FOR 2009 </li></ul><ul><li>Slow start to 2009, downturn in economic conditions restricts new development starts </li></ul><ul><li>Consecutive interest rate reductions during the last 4 mths, lowest level in seven years </li></ul><ul><li>Reserve Bank, so far, managed to allay a recession by alleviating overburdened households </li></ul><ul><li>Despite low interest rates, record low vacancy rates, widespread housing shortfall we do not expect to see residential construction pick up until towards the end of 2009 </li></ul><ul><li>Anticipate residential sector likely to be first to regain a pulse when sentiment begins to recover </li></ul>What THEY Say turn me green
  7. 7. 5 <ul><li>TURN ME GREEN FORECAST FOR 2009 </li></ul><ul><li>Banks will remain cautious, requiring greater hurdle rates before committing to new projects </li></ul><ul><li>Tender escalation has plateaued in most areas of Australia, with some cities moving into deceleration </li></ul><ul><li>Contractors scramble to secure work to maintain their pipeline of forward workload </li></ul><ul><li>Expect this situation to continue throughout 2009 </li></ul><ul><li>Investor sentiment is expected to remain subdued for at least the first half of 2009 </li></ul><ul><li>All of which will combine to discourage developers in the short-term </li></ul><ul><li>Aged care – Defence – Education – ESD – Infastructure – Government – Industrial </li></ul>What WE See turn me green
  8. 8. <ul><li>LEADING UP TO 2010 AND BEYOND In short, for the next six months, the outlook is relatively benign </li></ul><ul><li>Distressed asset sales in the wake of the financial crisis, causing a fall in avg house prices </li></ul><ul><li>Majority of homeowners will be able to stand their ground as long as their jobs hold </li></ul><ul><li>The second half of 2009 is less clear — it may experience a minor recovery as the massive economic stimulation packages kick in </li></ul><ul><li>Although any rally is likely to be restrained by debt levels, credit availability and affordability </li></ul><ul><li>Battle between supply and demand on one side, and debt and unemployment on the other </li></ul><ul><li>Unlikely to be fully waged until the second half of 2009 or early 2010 </li></ul><ul><li>Past late 2010, the outlook appears bleak. </li></ul>6 2010 Crystal Ball Stuff turn me green
  9. 9. 7 PRICING Competitive solutions to meet our project specific needs Secure deals for whole of project supply SERVICE Assisting site based staff as required to meet order and delivery time frames Responses to supply pricing and order requests RELATIONSHIPS Make yourself available to visit sites and assess upcoming requirements Building ongoing relationships beyond current projects COMMUNICATION Clear, Open and regular Respond in a timely manner Contractor Needs turn me green
  10. 10. Summary OPPORTUNITY Aged care Infrastructure Defence Industrial Government Education Health ESD / Green <ul><li>STRATEGY </li></ul><ul><li>Build stronger relationships with clients in above sectors </li></ul><ul><li>Develop strategy to secure opportunities </li></ul><ul><li>Build contractor and supplier alliances </li></ul><ul><li>Secure the most competitive trade pricing </li></ul><ul><li>Improve efficiencies across corporate business </li></ul>8 turn me green
  11. 11. Geoffrey Gourley Founder 0428 317 387 [email_address] Po Box 2247 Oakleigh, 3166 Victoria Contact Details www.geoffgourley.com.au www.turnmegreen.com.au turn me green