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Andy Tait: Addresses and Output Geography for 2011 Census in England and Wales
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  • Benefits of this approach: Uses best available sources; Uses LA experience in the verification of addresses LA participation and endorsement of Address Register will give wide assurance on the quality of addressing underpinning the Census; LAs will improve confidence in Census outputs Overall quality of addressing used throughout E&W will ultimately be improved.

Transcript

  • 1.
    • Addresses and Output Geography for 2011 Census in England and Wales
    • Andy Tait
    • Office for National Statistics
  • 2.
    • Background: Census – 2001 / 2011
    • Addresses for 2011 Census
    • Output Geographies for 2011 Census
    Content
  • 3.
    • 24m households in England/Wales
    • 70,000 field staff
    • Innovations:
      • Census coverage survey – adjusted figures
      • Post back
      • Scanning, OCR
      • 100% coding
    • New questions - religion, carers, health
    Census 2001
  • 4.
      • Post-out 2011 – hand delivered in 2001
      • Address checking before 2011 Census
      • Can fill in questionnaire online
      • Census count of both residents and visitors
      • Intensive, targeted and flexible follow up of non response
    Changes from 2001 in 2011
  • 5. Addresses for 2011 Census
  • 6.
    • Addresses for 2011 Census
    • Addresses at the core of the Census
      • Post-out and Back
      • Follow-up
      • Planning and estimation
  • 7.
    • Aims
    • To create:
    • best possible register of households from available sources and fieldwork
    • a register that key stakeholders, particularly LAs, are confident in
    • a register that is best value for money
    • Result will be a better basis for Census but NOT a list for general public use
    Addresses for 2011 Census
  • 8.
    • Addresses for 2011 Census
    • Sources
      • NLPG
      • PAF (& AL2)
      • VO Council Tax (& others ?)
      • All now good and getting better but none the full solution for Census
  • 9.
    • Addresses for 2011 Census
    • Processes
      • Match NLPG / PAF / AL2 / Council Tax
      • Validate – Suppliers – LAs - Fieldcheck
      • Manage change – via COU & intercept
      • Research – building the evidence
  • 10. Address register timetable
    • Nov 08 Address register pilot completed
    • Dec 08 National address matching started
    • May 09 Anomalies to national providers
    • Sept, Oct 09 Regional LA workshops
    • Start Nov 09 Residue to LAs for resolution
    • End Feb 10 LA resolution complete
    • May 10 ONS field address check starts
    • Oct 10 Address check complete
    • Nov 10 Address list to printers
    • 27 March 11 CENSUS DAY
  • 11.
    • Addresses for 2011 Census
    • Summary – 3 streams
    • Matching / validation of differences
    • Managing change
    • Additional research & the evidence base
  • 12. Output Geography for 2011 Census
  • 13.
    • Output Geography for 2011 Census
    • Maintaining Output Areas and Super Output Areas in 2011
    • Creating a new, nesting set of zones for workplace statistics
    • A set of Upper layer SOAs?
  • 14.
    • Strong support for:
    • Stability
    • Easy/free licensing of boundaries
    • Mean high water boundary set
    • England/Scotland alignment
    • Some but less support (in descending order) for:
    • Aligning boundaries to real world features
    • Separating communal establishments
    • Building zones based on workplace
    • Building an Upper layer of SOAs
    2007 Output Geography consultation
  • 15. Policy for 2011 Output Geographies
      • no change to existing OA/SOAs before 2011
      • where changes made to 2001 OAs/SOAs, to no more than 5% of the OAs - may be significantly less
      • common boundary between England and Scotland.
      • set of boundaries to Mean High Water as well as Extent of the Realm
    • retain mix of communal and household addresses to prevent disclosure of a single establishment
    • consider set of zones derived from OAs more suited for workplace statistics
  • 16.
    • 175,000 Output Areas
    • Mean 297 persons; 123 households
    • Building blocks for “neighbourhood” geographies: Super Output Areas (LSOAs, MSOAs)
    2001 Output Areas (E&W)
  • 17.
    • Automated zone design
    • Synthetic postcode polygons
      • Address-based thiessen polygons dissolved to create postcode polygons
      • Nested within wards/parishes
      • Respecting road centrelines where possible
    • Output Areas (OAs) optimised for:
      • Population/household thresholds
      • Homogeneity of population size
      • Internal homogeneity of accommodation type and tenure
      • Shape
    2001 Output Area zone design
  • 18.
    • Population growth, especially migration
    • More and smaller households
    • Newly built properties
      • Greenfield/new land
      • Brownfield/in-filling
    • Sub-division of existing properties
    • Changing socio-economic characteristics of areas
    Changes since 2001
  • 19. How much change by 2011? 2001-2005 Output Area threshold breaches, based on mid-year population estimates OAs: lower threshold = 100 people; upper threshold = 625 people (2 * target) Population thresholds = 2.5 * household thresholds 175416 1189 173859 368 2005 totals 584 506 78 0 2001 above 174382 682 173553 147 2001 within 450 1 228 221 2001 below 2001 totals 2005 above 2005 within 2005 below 99.1% 0.7% 0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
  • 20.
    • Most OAs (and LSOAs, MSOAs) unlikely to have breached thresholds by 2011
    • BUT, changes clustered geographically, so could breach badly in some areas
    • Some areas already known to be problematic in 2001
    How much change by 2011?
  • 21. Census2011Geog project
    • ESRC funded research by Southampton University
    • Research automating procedures for splitting/merging OA/SOAs
    • Diverse Study areas of population increase and decrease to breach population thresholds
    • Look at using street blocks as well as postcode blocks
    • Plan to test algorithm on 2009 Rehearsal data
  • 22. 2001 OAs 2001 LSOAs Above upper threshold Within thresholds Below lower threshold Merge (merge 2001 OAs) Split (aggregate postcodes/ street blocks) 2011 OAs 2011 OAs 2011 OAs Append 2011 OAs Postcodes/Street blocks For a 2001 LAD/UA Automated maintenance procedures
  • 23.
    • ONS and DoT co-sponsoring research by Southampton University to create a more suitable output geography for workplace statistics
    • Workplace Zone geography will either maintain, split or merge the existing OAs.
    • Set of Workplace Zones can be created and piloted in early 2010.
    • Wide ranging user group guiding the research.
    Workplace Zones
  • 24.
    • OAs/SOAs – are any unfit for purpose as a statistical geography?
    • Upper layer SOAs – do you want a national set?
    • Views on geography policy
    Census Output consultation 2009
  • 25. Questions?